Drawsandmore Posted September 21, 2012 Author Share Posted September 21, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Apologies for the late posting! 21/09/12 F1 Laval v Caen (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 22, 2012 Author Share Posted September 22, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! A loser last night :( ...Three for today: 22/09/12 E0 Southampton v Aston Villa (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.42 22/09/12 E0 West Ham v Sunderland (X) 4 points Coral @ 3.40 22/09/12 E1 Millwall v Brighton (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.44 One more for Sunday to follow later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 22, 2012 Author Share Posted September 22, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! To wrap up the week: 23/09/12 SC0 Aberdeen v Motherwell (X) 4 points Bluesq @ 3.30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 23, 2012 Author Share Posted September 23, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Bet 27 18/09/12 E1 Leeds v Hull (X) 4 points Coral @ 3.40 ...2 - 3 Lost Bet 28 21/09/12 F1 Laval v Caen (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.10 ...1 - 2 Lost Bet 29 22/09/12 E0 Southampton v Aston Villa (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.42 ...4 - 1 Lost Bet 30 22/09/12 E0 West Ham v Sunderland (X) 4 points Coral @ 3.40 ...1 - 1 Won Bet 31 22/09/12 E1 Millwall v Brighton (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.44 ...1 - 2 Lost Bet 32 23/09/12 SC0 Aberdeen v Motherwell (X) 4 points Bluesq @ 3.30 ...3 - 3 Won A couple of last minute goals go in our favour this week, making the performance to date: 10 winners from 32 bets (31.25% strike rate) 5.72 points profit from 128 points staked (4.47% yield) Still nothing to get excited about, but at least we're in profit! Probably the most encouraging statistic so far, (it's still only very early days), is that of the 32 bets, there have been 11 Homes, 11 aways and 10 draws...The profit is not great, but the system does appear to be to be picking matches that are quite closely matched and reducing/eliminating the usual home advantage. There are currently 6 bets next week, the first of which is on Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! I love what you are doing, you are on the right track. The reducing percentage stake as bank rises is correct. You WILL eventually hit 25 straight losers with this, i am certain of that. A couple of things, the leagues you are using pan out at 28/29% draws on average. You are looking for a strike rate of 33% by being selective? I dont think you will reach it but 30/31% is viable. Strike rate sorted you need best odds every time. Shop around more, particularly Thursday lunchtime as the bookies are jockeying for best price in the Post friday morning. I know you have you own ratings but what about the bookies doing the work for you. If the top ten bookies have it 7/4 home win and 7/4 the away win all you need to do is consider average goals, weather and last minute variables such as injuries and team changes. The bookies are pointing you to the well-matched teams. Finally and importantly, do you have the balls to keep going when the chips are down and the stakes are massive? Good luck pal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! I love what you are doing, you are on the right track. The reducing percentage stake as bank rises is correct. You WILL eventually hit 25 straight losers with this, i am certain of that. A couple of things, the leagues you are using pan out at 28/29% draws on average. You are looking for a strike rate of 33% by being selective? I dont think you will reach it but 30/31% is viable. Strike rate sorted you need best odds every time. Shop around more, particularly Thursday lunchtime as the bookies are jockeying for best price in the Post friday morning. I know you have you own ratings but what about the bookies doing the work for you. If the top ten bookies have it 7/4 home win and 7/4 the away win all you need to do is consider average goals, weather and last minute variables such as injuries and team changes. The bookies are pointing you to the well-matched teams. Finally and importantly, do you have the balls to keep going when the chips are down and the stakes are massive? Good luck pal. Hi AFK7, many thanks for your kind words and advice. Like you, I am certain that no matter how good the system is, there WILL be a losing run of 25 eventually, so if in the meantime I can turn a decent profit, I will definitely increase the stake while reducing the percentage I'm betting as the bank grows. Currently the draw rate in the Leagues I'm betting in is almost 30%, so my performance (31.25%) is actually a bit disappointing...Must try harder! lol If my strike rate is better than 30% at the end of the season, I should be in profit, but in all honesty, anything less than 33% I would regard as a bit of a let down. As for getting the best possible prices, I think that I generally do ok, but there is definite room for improvement...And I shall certainly look into your "Thursday lunchtime" suggestion, as your logic makes a lot of sense to me. I've tried letting the bookies point me in the right direction previously, but I could never quite get it to work for me...The logic is sound, so perhaps it was probably my reasoning that was at fault. I suppose that is why I use what is essentially a numbers based system when betting...There is no grey area open to my own interpretation or feelings. My numbers might be wrong, but they are there in black and white, (so regardless of my own confidence, or my lack of it if I'm betting after 10 consecutive losers, I always make the same bet and with the stake indicated by the staking plan). Finally, in much the same way as the system is purely "numbers" with no regard to which teams I'm actually betting on, (and assuming that my bank does actually increase), I don't foresee any problem betting larger amounts in the future...I only think in terms of "money" at the start and end of the season! At the start of the season I determine how much I'm prepared to lose and spread it across various betting accounts. Once that is done, I'm only betting "numbers" again. It is only at the end of the season that I regard it as real money again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! I have had 29 without a draw, i have had 29 straight losers odd-on and i have had 1200 straight losing (non-profitable) multiple bets! Trust me, that run will come. Get off to a good start, increase the bank and reduce percent stake on a sliding scale. If you can get to 33% you will make a good butty. I am sceptical though, i have been backing draws very selectively for 11 years and i look to 31%. Dont get drawn into leagues at 30% (France) and then keep taking 3.1, its too low for the strike. Better a 29% strike and 3.4. Oddschecker constantly updates. Key is getting the best price. It ultra-competitive right now as the online boys want to get a foot on the rung before it explodes in India, the USA and China when de-regulation comes. There are two particular bookies out there right now having a good old ding-dong to show the best prices. Take advantage and good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 28, 2012 Author Share Posted September 28, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! The first of six bets this weekend: 28/09/12 F2 Clermont v Laval (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 28, 2012 Author Share Posted September 28, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! A nice start to the weekend...Four bets for Saturday: 29/09/12 E1 Burnley v Millwall (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.67 29/09/12 E1 Huddersfield v Watford (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.58 29/09/12 F1 Evian Thonon Gaillard v Lorient (X) 4 points Spreadex @ 3.25 29/09/12 SC1 Raith Rvs v Partick (X) 4 points Coral @ 3.50 One more for Sunday to follow later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gugu55 Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! hi curiosity of 13 matches winning 10 resulted in HT / FT result of X / X rate 5.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 29, 2012 Author Share Posted September 29, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! hi curiosity of 13 matches winning 10 resulted in HT / FT result of X / X rate 5.5 Hi gugu55, and thank you for your interest. HT/FT is not something I've looked at before, but it is fairly easy to back test...In the next few days, I'll try and check out the last couple of seasons, (plus this season to date) and let you know the results...I don't have the odds history, but I will be able to check out the % win rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 29, 2012 Author Share Posted September 29, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! On a day when a goal in the 93rd minute turned a losing bet into a winner TWICE, and Spurs actually managed to beat Man Utd at Old Trafford...I still feel cheated by the penalty awarded to Watford against Huddersfield!! Anyway, to finish off this weeks bets: 30/09/12 E0 Aston villa v West Brom (X) 4 points Panbet @ 3.35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 30, 2012 Author Share Posted September 30, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...At last, some real profit! 5 out of 6 :cow:clap:D Bet 33 28/09/12 F2 Clermont v Laval (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.26 ...0 - 0 Won Bet 34 29/09/12 E1 Burnley v Millwall (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.67 ...2 - 2 Won Bet 35 29/09/12 E1 Huddersfield v Watford (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.58 ...2 - 3 Lost Bet 36 29/09/12 F1 Evian Thonon Gaillard v Lorient (X) 4 points Spreadex @ 3.25 ...1 - 1 Won Bet 37 29/09/12 SC1 Raith Rvs v Partick (X) 4 points Coral @ 3.50 ...1 - 1 Won Bet 38 30/09/12 E0 Aston villa v West Brom (X) 4 points Panbet @ 3.35 ...1 - 1 Won Typically, the match I predicted as a draw in the Tipsters Challenge Competition was the only match that wasn't a draw! But I can't really complain can I? I suspect that I could keep posting on here for the rest of my life, and never better this weeks performance. The figures since the start of the season are now: 15 winners from 38 bets (39.47% strike rate) 49.84 points profit from 152 points staked (32.79% yield) Onwards into October, and there are currently six bets next week, starting with two on Tuesday night, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...At last some real profit! :ok keep the draws going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted October 1, 2012 Author Share Posted October 1, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! And so to the first bets of the week: 02/10/12 E1 Barnsley v Peterborough (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.88 02/10/12 E1 Bristol City v Millwall (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.52 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! One out of two tonight :) The next bet will be on Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...At last some real profit! Going well DAM, you are reaping the rewards for your incredible efforts, I like what you are doing & particularly your philosopohy re betting banks, staking & what you are prepared to lose to achieve success. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted October 3, 2012 Author Share Posted October 3, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...At last some real profit! Going well DAM' date=' you are reaping the rewards for your incredible efforts, I like what you are doing & particularly your philosopohy re betting banks, staking & what you are prepared to lose to achieve success. Good luck.[/quote'] Thank you for your interest and kind words Bedlam. It's certainly going through a bit of a purple patch at the moment, but there is still a long way to go until the end of the season. The current strike rate of 40% is probably as good as it gets...I still hope/expect the strike rate to be around the 33% mark at the end of the season. If that is the case, it means that there will be some fairly depressing losing streaks ahead, but I guess that's why we have betting banks? A lot of my philosophy regarding betting banks is down to this forum...I read loads of threads on here, and try to take something from all of them. I may well disagree with a lot of what is said in a particular post, but quite often there will be an absolute "nugget" in it that I can take away and use. Similarly, just because someone is betting on something that I have absolutely no interest in, it doesn't mean that I can't take something from their methods. I think that what is so good about forums in general, and this one in particular, is that there are so many people freely sharing information. All of them looking at different areas, types and ways of betting that I'd never have considered or thought of on my own. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that if somebody reads this forum regularly, with an OPEN mind, and can't improve either their profits or reduce their losses, they probably shouldn't be betting at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted October 4, 2012 Author Share Posted October 4, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Following the two bets earlier in the week, this is the first of four bets for the weekend. 05/10/12 F2 Istres (X) Caen 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted October 5, 2012 Author Share Posted October 5, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! 0 - 4 !!! Moving swiftly on: 06/10/12 E1 Blackburn v Wolves (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.55 06/10/12 F1 Sochaux v Rennes (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.36 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted October 6, 2012 Author Share Posted October 6, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Final bet of the week. 07/10/12 E0 Southampton v Fulham (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.48 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted October 7, 2012 Author Share Posted October 7, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Bet 39 02/10/12 E1 Barnsley v Peterboro (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.88 ...0 - 2 Lost Bet 40 02/10/12 E1 Bristol City v Millwall (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.52 ...1 - 1 Won Bet 41 05/10/12 F2 Istres v Caen (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.16 ...0 - 4 Lost Bet 42 06/10/12 E1 Blackburn v Wolves (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.55 ...0 - 1 Lost Bet 43 06/10/12 F1 Sochaux v Rennes (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.36 ...0 - 1 Lost Bet 44 07/10/12 E0 Southampton v Fulham (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.48 ...2 - 2 Won Two out of six = A profitable week, although unsurprisingly, nothing like as good as the previous week. The figures since the start of the season are now: 17 winners from 44 bets (38.64% strike rate) 53.84 points profit from 176 points staked (30.59% yield) As a result of the forthcoming international matches, there are no bets at all next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Following the enforced international break last week, there will be six bets yet again this week, and they're all on Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illusion21 Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! looking forwad to it, cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Busy, busy, busy! Six bets for tomorrow: 20/10/12 E0 Swansea v Wigan (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.56 20/10/12 E0 Tottenham v Chelsea (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.40 20/10/12 E1 Burnley v Blackpool (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.68 20/10/12 E1 Watford v Peterboro (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.92 20/10/12 F1 Rennes v Montpellier (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.29 20/10/12 SC0 Ross County v Hibernian (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.51 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Bet 45 20/10/12 E0 Swansea v Wigan (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.56 ...2 - 1 Lost Bet 46 20/10/12 E0 Tottenham v Chelsea (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.40 ...2 - 4 Lost Bet 47 20/10/12 E1 Burnley v Blackpool (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.68 ...1 - 0 Lost Bet 48 20/10/12 E1 Watford v Peterboro (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.92 ...1 - 0 Lost Bet 49 20/10/12 F1 Rennes v Montpellier (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.29 ...2 - 1 Lost Bet 50 20/10/12 SC0 Ross County v Hibernian (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.51 ...3 - 2 Lost The worst week so far, none from six!! :( The figures since the start of the season are now a more realistic, and hopefully, more sustainable: 17 winners from 50 bets (34.00% strike rate) 29.84 points profit from 200 points staked (14.92% yield) There are currently 6 bets again next week, although that could change depending on the results of the midweek fixtures. The first 2 bets are on Tuesday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! No rest for the wicked, two bets for tomorrow: 23/10/12 E1 Leeds v Charlton (X) 4 points Betvictor @ 3.90 23/10/12 E1 Middlesbrough v Hull (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...At last some real profit! One from two tonight, which sets us up nicely for a very busy few days. There are now six bets at the weekend, the first of which is on Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! One for Friday night: 26/10/12 F2 Guingamp v Sedan (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.33 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! And to round the week off: 27/10/12 E0 Reading v Fulham (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.58 27/10/12 E1 Peterborough v Derby (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.56 27/10/12 E1 Wolves v Charlton (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.79 27/10/12 SC0 St Mirren v Dundee Utd (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.50 27/10/12 SC1 Hamilton v Raith Rovers (X) 4 points Ladbrokes @ 3.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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