Draws for PROFIT...Bugger it!

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

Bet 5 10/08/12 F2 Niort v Caen (X) 4 points Bet365 @ 3.20 ...1 - 0 Lost Bet 6 11/08/12 SC0 Inverness C v Kilmarnock (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.40 ...1 - 1 Won Bet 7 12/08/12 F1 Reims v Marseilles C (X) 4 points Panbet @ 3.30 ...0 - 1 Lost Bet 8 12/08/12 SC0 Hibernian v Hearts (X) 4 points Paddypower @ 3.40 ...1 - 1 Won

Two correct from only four selections equals a profitable week :-) 50% correct doesn't mean anything after a total of just eight bets, (and there have been a heck of a lot of draws so far), but at least the thread has started profitably. Four more bets later this week, starting on Saturday. I'll try to post everything up by Friday latest.

[ballisticdisco]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Drawsandmore, a very good start, like you said after eight bets it doesn't mean anything. I have been following these selections with my own money and I'm confident the success will continue as the games that have lost have all been by 1 goal. Keep up the good work.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

I'm confident the success will continue as the games that have lost have all been by 1 goal.

Hi ballisticdisco, and thank you for your vote of confidence. It does seem to feel better if the bet only loses by the odd goal doesn't it? However I don't think you should read too much into the margin of defeat just yet...Over half of the matches selected so far have been in the French leagues, which are traditionally very low scoring, and therefore quite likely to be settled by only one goal. The flip side is that sometimes the score can also be alarmingly one-sided...I think the worst "draw" prediction I made last season actually ended up as a 6-1 home win!! But in isolation, (and apart from being rather embarrassing), I don't feel that it is necessarily indicative of any failing in the system. On the other hand, if there are a lot of "large margin" defeats, I would start to worry. It's very early days yet, but I will be looking at the results of the the bets in this thread, and in as many different ways as I can think of to try to gain any little edge that I can get next season...Let's just hope that we both think it is worth betting on the draws again next season :hope

[ballisticdisco]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! So what you thinking for the next few weeks? Will you be moving away from the French or sticking with it? Is there only certain leagues you're going to use throughout the season, I have read through the thread but didn't see any specific leagues mentioned.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Hi again ballisticdisco, It's a bit of a shaggy dog story, but the leagues I'm using this year are in part dictated by my lack of computer skills, and in part my perceptions regarding different leagues! I use the BBC and ESPN for the fixtures, (typing them in manually each week), and as I'm not computer savvy enough to scrape information from other web-sites, it's all down to copying and pasting the results and odds etc. from football-data.co.uk back into the spread sheet at the end of the week. Ideally I need at least two divisions per National league to create the ratings, so that restricts my choices to: England and Scotland...Are the countries I used initially to develop the system. France...Deliberately chosen because they have a high percentage of draws...The odds may be shorter, but it also helps keep the losing runs shorter. Spain...A high scoring league, and the more goals there are, the less draws there usually are. When I back test the system, it seems to be better than betting blind, but not by enough to make all the extra inputting worthwhile. Italy...I really don't trust the Italian leagues...There are just too many games where the draw odds are ridiculously short for there NOT to be some sort of "gentlemans agreement", particularly in the lower divisions later in the season. I've done some limited analysis, and for me at least, it is not worth the effort for what appear to be fairly minimal profits at best. Germany...My gut feel was that Germany should be suited to a systematic approach, but as others on PL have already remarked, Germany seems to be a law unto itself as far as predicting the results is concerned!...I cannot even get close to making the system profitable in Germany. Option 1 in the first post is all 5 English divisions, (Prem to Conference), All four Scottish divisions and the top two French divisions. Option 2 excludes divisions three and four in Scotland, while option 3 also excludes the bottom three English division. Option 3 is the one I'm posting here and betting on, so the answer to your question is that I'll be covering The Prem and Championship in England, and the top two divisions in Scotland and France. Of the four bets this week, three are in the English Prem, and one is in Scottish division 1...I haven't stopped betting in France, but nothing came up this week.

[TZOGAS]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! come on friend........i am following you....i am sure we will earn more than a tip....

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Three for today: 18/08/12 E0 WBA v Liverpool (X) 4 points Paddypower @ 3.60 18/08/12 E0 West Ham United v Aston Villa (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.49 18/08/12 SC1 Falkirk v Raith Rvs (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.79

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Oops...The First match (WBA) the odds shown are with Betfred or Skybet.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! No good so far this weekend...Last chance tomorrow: 20/08/12 E0 Everton v Man Utd (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.80

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

Bet 9 18/08/12 E0 WBA v Liverpool (X) 4 points Betfred @ 3.60 ...3 - 0 Lost Bet 10 18/08/12 E0 West Ham United v Aston Villa (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.49 ...1 - 0 Lost Bet 11 18/08/12 SC1 Falkirk v Raith Rvs (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.79 ...0 - 2 Lost Bet 12 20/08/12 Everton v Man Utd (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.75 ...1 - 0 Lost

A disappointing weekend, (ok, a rubbish weekend!) But the overall figures since the start of the season are actually ok...Certainly I'd be happy with the strike rate and yield at the end of the season! 4 winners from 12 bets (33% strike rate) 5.32 points profit from 48 points staked (11.08% yield) There are currently three bets for next week, although that might change after the midweek matches have been played.

[f0r3st727]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! I want to ask, how do you choose which match will end with draw?

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

I want to ask' date=' how do you choose which match will end with draw?[/quote'] Hi f0r3st727, and thank you for your continued interest. The details were in my original thread, (and they are really only my own take on "Power Ratings"), but to save you trawling through the earlier thread, here are the main details: All teams have seperate home and away ratings...In this simple example, let’s say the rating for the home team (A) is 100 points and the away team (B) is 80 points…If we assume one goal is equal to 10 points, my prediction is that team A should win by 2 goals, and if that is the outcome, both ratings remain unchanged. However, if the final result is 1–0, then using 10 points as the value of a goal, Team A would have a new rating of 95 and team B would be rated at 85…(original rating of team A added to the original rating of team B…100+80=180…minus the goal difference of 10 points, 180-10=170…Divided by two equals 85 points per team…plus the 10 points for Team A who won by one goal). That all looks a bit of a mess written down, but hopefully the logic is clear?! Obviously these aren’t my real ratings, but it is the principle that I use for them…It’s all very simple stuff really, but the real fun starts when we think about what the ratings are trying to tell us!! Suppose Team A is Manchester United and Team B is Fulham…2-0 to United is the prediction, and 2-0 to United is the result…all perfectly reasonable and if they played each other the following week, it would be no great surprise if United again won by 2 goals. But let’s pretend United had an off day in the first match and Fulham played out of their skin, (and the ref didn't play 57 minutes of injury time!) Final score 0-2! Using my simple logic, United are now rated at 80 and Fulham are rated at 100, so if they could actually play each other again the following week at Old Trafford, the prediction is that Fulham will win by two goals!!! Not impossible, but I would expect the class of United to show through, so this type of rating system has to incorporate a way of allowing for the difference between class and form…But you will have to work that out for yourself, because whether my method is good or bad, it is the only “edge” I’ve got! As for the “draw prediction” element of the system, I use a small allowance…The two teams don’t need to have exactly the same rating, but the ratings do need to be pretty similar…As a rough guide about 1% difference in the ratings...This results in me predicting about one in ten matches ending as a draw. I hope this answers your question.

[jd_fortune]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

As for the “draw prediction” element of the system, I use a small allowance…The two teams don’t need to have exactly the same rating, but the ratings do need to be pretty similar…As a rough guide about 1% difference in the ratings...This results in me predicting about one in ten matches ending as a draw.

If two teams are about evenly matched wouldn't the predicted match odds be the average of all games and teams? I guess if they were evenly matched because both teams were equally over or under the average team then it would be different from the average draw percentage. For instance if two teams are both bad then there would probably be more 0-0 outcomes than average, due to both teams just getting in each others way more than actually making solid attempts on goal. I've seen a few games like that in crappy foreign leagues, basically spending most of their time bouncing the ball off each other. Then when I watched an American league game it was completely different. There were quite a few goals in those games because both teams were actually making effective moves. The more goals, the less likely a draw, I would think. Incidentally, the overall average for draws in the EPL since 2003 is 26% or odds of 3.84. How you got 1 in 10 I don't know, though that figure is close to the average occurrence of 0-0 scores, which is about 1 in 12.

[jd_fortune]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! I meant draw odds not match odds in the first sentence.

[f0r3st727]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

Hi f0r3st727, and thank you for your continued interest. The details were in my original thread, (and they are really only my own take on "Power Ratings"), but to save you trawling through the earlier thread, here are the main details: All teams have seperate home and away ratings...In this simple example, let’s say the rating for the home team (A) is 100 points and the away team (B) is 80 points…If we assume one goal is equal to 10 points, my prediction is that team A should win by 2 goals, and if that is the outcome, both ratings remain unchanged. However, if the final result is 1–0, then using 10 points as the value of a goal, Team A would have a new rating of 95 and team B would be rated at 85…(original rating of team A added to the original rating of team B…100+80=180…minus the goal difference of 10 points, 180-10=170…Divided by two equals 85 points per team…plus the 10 points for Team A who won by one goal). That all looks a bit of a mess written down, but hopefully the logic is clear?! Obviously these aren’t my real ratings, but it is the principle that I use for them…It’s all very simple stuff really, but the real fun starts when we think about what the ratings are trying to tell us!! Suppose Team A is Manchester United and Team B is Fulham…2-0 to United is the prediction, and 2-0 to United is the result…all perfectly reasonable and if they played each other the following week, it would be no great surprise if United again won by 2 goals. But let’s pretend United had an off day in the first match and Fulham played out of their skin, (and the ref didn't play 57 minutes of injury time!) Final score 0-2! Using my simple logic, United are now rated at 80 and Fulham are rated at 100, so if they could actually play each other again the following week at Old Trafford, the prediction is that Fulham will win by two goals!!! Not impossible, but I would expect the class of United to show through, so this type of rating system has to incorporate a way of allowing for the difference between class and form…But you will have to work that out for yourself, because whether my method is good or bad, it is the only “edge” I’ve got! As for the “draw prediction” element of the system, I use a small allowance…The two teams don’t need to have exactly the same rating, but the ratings do need to be pretty similar…As a rough guide about 1% difference in the ratings...This results in me predicting about one in ten matches ending as a draw. I hope this answers your question.

Yea it's quite clear now… Thank you for explaining… Good luck

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Hi jd_fortune, and thank you for your interest.

If two teams are about evenly matched wouldn't the predicted draw odds be the average of all games and teams? I guess if they were evenly matched because both teams were equally over or under the average team then it would be different from the average draw percentage.

Because I am using my own ratings, it doesn't always follow that the market will agree with my definition of "evenly matched" teams. Sometimes the market will have a strong favourite where my ratings predict a close match...More often than not the market is right, but I'm hoping that I will be right often enough to show a profit.

Incidentally' date=' the overall average for draws in the EPL since 2003 is 26% or odds of 3.84. How you got 1 in 10 I don't know, though that figure is close to the average occurrence of 0-0 scores, which is about 1 in 12.[/quote'] Perhaps I didn't explain myself clearly...What I meant to say was that only about one in ten matches are contested by teams that are closely matched, (according to my definition anyway! lol). I know that overall, about 26% of all matches finish as draws, what I'm aiming to do is find 33%(ish) draws from my "reduced" fixture list. From 1000 randomly matches, about 260 should be draws. From 1000 randomly selected matches, I would only bet in about 100 of them, and hope to find 33 draws.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! And so to the first of four bets this week: 24/08/12 F2 Niort v Guingamp (X) 4 points Bet365 @ 3.20

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Three more bets this week, all on Saturday: 25/08/12 E1 Bristol City v Cardiff (X) 4 points Ladbrokes @ 3.40 25/08/12 F1 Reims v Sochaux (X) 4 points Betvictor @ 3.25 25/08/12 SC1 Morton v Falkirk (X) 4 points Bet365 @ 3.50

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

Bet 13 24/08/12 F2 Niort v Guingamp (X) 4 points Bet365 @ 3.20 ...0 - 0 Won Bet 14 25/08/12 E1 Bristol City v Cardiff (X) 4 points Ladbrokes @ 3.40 ...4 - 2 Lost Bet 15 25/08/12 F1 Reims v Sochaux (X) 4 points Betvictor @ 3.25 ...1 - 0 Lost Bet 16 25/08/12 SC1 Morton v Falkirk (X) 4 points Bet365 @ 3.50 ...1 - 2 Lost

Reims v Sochaux was particularly painful...On ESPN showing 0-0 in the third minute of injury time, match then shows FT, and then the score changes to 1-0...An own goal in the 4th minute of injury time. I've had matches where the last minute goal goes in my favour, but it's the goals that go against you that you tend to remember! 5 winners from 16 bets (31.25% strike rate) 2.12 points profit from 64 points staked (a rather disappointing 3.31% yield) It looks like there will be three bets next week.

[orhane]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! hi drawsandmore, good luck with your system. i do quite the same by using the offered odds as a criteria to find draws. the main concept of my assumption is, that matches between close sides are more likely to draw than matches with high favorites. i assume that when the odds for the home team are higher or equal to 1.75 that there will be more likely a draw. if you test it for leagues with higher draw ratings the numbers will go up. the leagues that qualify for this (indicates the matches last year): france 1 (199), france 2 (236), germany 1 (147), germany 2 (164) greece 1 (98) belgium 1 (105) italy 1 (187), italy 2 (272) if i would bet without any choice of leagues on every match from the 22 leagues football data co uk covers, it would have been a profit of 18,86 units over the year. if i selected the leagues form above and home odds greater or equal to 1.75 the profit would have been 34,94 units over the whole season. 1 unit per bet.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

hi drawsandmore, good luck with your system. i do quite the same by using the offered odds as a criteria to find draws. the main concept of my assumption is, that matches between close sides are more likely to draw than matches with high favorites. i assume that when the odds for the home team are higher or equal to 1.75 that there will be more likely a draw. if you test it for leagues with higher draw ratings the numbers will go up. the leagues that qualify for this (indicates the matches last year): france 1 (199), france 2 (236), germany 1 (147), germany 2 (164) greece 1 (98) belgium 1 (105) italy 1 (187), italy 2 (272) if i would bet without any choice of leagues on every match from the 22 leagues football data co uk covers, it would have been a profit of 18,86 units over the year. if i selected the leagues form above and home odds greater or equal to 1.75 the profit would have been 34,94 units over the whole season. 1 unit per bet.

Hi orhane, and thank you for your interest and comments. I'd be very happy with your profit figures above, and I like the relative simplicity and logic of the system. Have you tested it further back than last season? Also, as your system is very much "odds driven", (and if you aren't using football-data), do you use a specific bookmaker to determine the qualifying odds, or do you take an average from various bookmakers? And probably just as importantly, at what time do you settle on the odds?

[orhane]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Tahnks for your response :loon The first and biggest factor in my approach is to get the best odd available. So it is usefull to have a bookie who offers odds above average. I analyzed the odds offered for a draw with the data from football data. You get very interesting results. There are 10 bookies listed. I took the odds in the football data db and calculated a ratio: odd offered / average odds for draw there a 3 listed bookies who have an average offer above the market for the 35000 selections from 2007/08 to 2011/12. The best bookie for this is B365. They have 2,15% above average odds. After them VC and SJ have above market odds offered. But only roundabout 1%. So the best odds are not listed specificly in the FBDcouk database. I take Pinnacle and Betfair and Bet365 odds. I backtested my results from the Football Data.co uk with a simple approach. If the home odds are between 1,75 and 3,5 i bet 1 unit on a draw, 4 Leagues qualify with a profitable result. Premier League 1014 of 1900 matches qualify profit: 31,49 units French Ligue 1 1290 of 1900 matches qualify profit: 43,82 units French Ligue 2 1615 of 1900 matches qualify profit: 31,54 units Spain Segunda Division 1856 of 1900 matches qualify: 51,67 units Total Matches in 5 years: 5775 Profit:158,52 units My seconda approach is about backing home teams with the same odds (1,75 to 3.5): There are 2 Leagues who qualify for profit. 180 units in 5 years. LaLiga and SerieA. I hope I could clarify me thoughts a bit. If you have further questions feel free to ask.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Three bets this week...Two for Saturday, and one for Sunday: 01/09/12 E1 Barnsley v Bristol City (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.41 01/09/12 F1 Bastia v St Etienne (X) 4 points Bluesq @ 3.25 02/09/12 E0 Liverpool v Arsenal (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.53

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

Bet 17 01/09/12 E1 Barnsley v Bristol City (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.41 ...1 - 0 Lost Bet 18 01/09/12 F1 Bastia v St Etienne (X) 4 points Bluesq @ 3.25 ...0 - 3 Lost Bet 19 02/09/12 E0 Liverpool v Arsenal (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.53 ...0 - 2 Lost

Well that wasn't very good was it? It's probably no bad thing that due to the international matches being played, there are no bets this week. 5 winners from 19 bets (26.32% strike rate) 9.88 points loss from 76 points staked (-13.00% yield)

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! And to make up for the lack of bets last week, there are SEVEN bets this weekend...Let's hope they are more profitable than the last lot!

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! And so to the first of seven bets this week: 14/09/12 E1 Charlton v Crystal Palace (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.58

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Five for today: 15/09/12 EO Norwich v West Ham (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.43 15/09/12 E1 Hull v Millwall (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.42 15/09/12 E1 N0tt'm Forest v Birmingham (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.47 15/09/12 SC0 Inverness C v Aberdeen (X) 4 points Ladbrokes @ 3.30 15/09/12 SC0 St Mirren v Hearts (X) 4 points Totesport @ 3.30

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! And to round off the weekend: 16/09/12 F1 Nancy v Marseilles (X) 4 points Betvictor @ 3.20

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

Bet 20 14/09/12 E1 Charlton v Crystal Palace (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.58 ...0 - 1 Lost Bet 21 15/09/12 EO Norwich v West Ham (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.43 ...0 - 0 Won Bet 22 15/09/12 E1 Hull v Millwall (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.42 ...4 - 1 Lost Bet 23 15/09/12 E1 Nott'm Forest v Birmingham (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.47 ...2 - 2 Won Bet 24 15/09/12 SC0 Inverness C v Aberdeen (X) 4 points Ladbrokes @ 3.30 ...1 - 1 Won Bet 25 15/09/12 SC0 St Mirren v Hearts (X) 4 points Totesport @ 3.30 ...2 - 0 Lost Bet 26 16/09/16/09/12 F1 Nancy v Marseilles (X) 4 points >Betvictor @ 3.20 ...0 - 1 Lost

A much better weekend, making the performance to date: 8 winners from 26 bets (30.77% strike rate) 2.92 points profit from 104 points staked (2.81% yield) There are currently 5 bets this week, the first of which is tomorrow night. I'll be back to post it up shortly.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! And so, the start of another week: 18/09/12 E1 Leeds v Hull (X) 4 points Coral @ 3.40