Draws for PROFIT...Bugger it!

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

Bet 51 23/10/12 E1 Leeds v Charlton (X) 4 points Betvictor @ 3.90 ...1 - 1 Won Bet 52 23/10/12 E1 Middlesbrough v Hull (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.50 ...2 - 0 Lost Bet 53 26/10/12 F2 Guingamp v Sedan (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.33 ...2 - 0 Lost Bet 54 27/10/12 E0 Reading v Fulham (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.58 ...3 - 3 Won Bet 55 27/10/12 E1 Peterborough v Derby (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.56 ...3 - 0 Lost Bet 56 27/10/12 E1 Wolves v Charlton (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.79 ...1 - 1 Won Bet 57 27/10/12 SC0 St Mirren v Dundee Utd (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.50 ...0 - 1 Lost Bet 58 27/10/12 SC1 Hamilton v Raith Rovers (X) 4 points Ladbrokes @ 3.50 ...0 - 1 Lost

Back to winning ways this week with three draws from eight bets. That's now five winning weeks from the last six...Unfortunately the losing week was so bad that October becomes the first "real" losing month this season. (July was also a loser, but there was only one bet!) The figures since the start of the season are now: 20 winners from 58 bets (34.48% strike rate) 42.92 points profit from 232 points staked (18.50% yield) There are currently 7 bets next week, the first three of which are on Friday.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Three bets for tomorrow: 02/11/12 E1 Brighton v Leeds (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.57 02/11/12 F2 Nimes v Arles (X) 4 points Bet365 @ 3.30 02/11/12 F2 Sedan v Lens (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.16

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! And four more bets for Saturday: 03/11/12 E0 Norwich v Stoke (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.36 03/11/12 E1 Huddersfield v Bristol City (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.76 03/11/12 E1 Nott'm Forest v Millwall (X) 4 points Bet365 @ 3.75 03/11/12 E1 Sheffield Weds v Peterborough (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.83

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

Bet 59 02/11/12 E1 Brighton v Leeds (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.57 ...2 - 2 Won Bet 60 02/11/12 F2 Nimes v Arles (X) 4 points Bet365 @ 3.30 ...4 - 1 Lost Bet 61 02/11/12 F2 Sedan v Lens (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.16 ...0 - 1 Lost Bet 62 03/11/12 E0 Norwich v Stoke (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.36 ...1 - 0 Lost Bet 63 03/11/12 E1 Huddersfield v Bristol City (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.76 ...1 - 0 Lost Bet 64 03/11/12 E1 Nott'm Forest v Millwall (X) 4 points Bet365 @ 3.75 ...1 - 4 Lost Bet 65 03/11/12 E1 Sheffield Weds v Peterborough (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.83 ...2 - 1 Lost

And I really felt good about the selections before kick off!!! A poor week with just one winner. The figures since the start of the season are now: 21 winners from 65 bets (32.31% strike rate) 29.20 points profit from 260 points staked (11.23% yield) There are currently eleven bets :loon next week, the first two of which are on Friday.

[iparout]

Re: Draws for profit...At last some real profit! Nice work, good luck in the future...

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...At last some real profit!

Nice work' date=' good luck in the future...[/quote'] Thank you iparout...Overall, I'm quite pleased with the performance of the system to date, but too many weeks like last week and I won't be!

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Two bets for tonight: 09/11/12 F1 Nancy v Rennes (X) 4 points Betvictor @ 3.20 09/11/12 F2 Arles v Laval (X) 4 points Betvictor @ 3.10

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Sorry for the late posting...Although if they perform like last nights "draws", perhaps it'd be better if I didn't post them at all this week! 10/11/12 E0 Reading v Norwich (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.54 10/11/12 E0 Southampton v Swansea (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.67 10/11/12 E1 Barnsley v Huddersfield (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.42 10/11/12 E1 Leeds v Watford (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.76 10/11/12 E1 Peterborough v Crystal Palace (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.68 10/11/12 E1 Wolves v Brighton (X) 4 points Skybet @ 3.40 10/11/12 SC0 Kilmarnock v Ross County (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.46

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! And the last bet of the week: 11/11/12 E1 Bristol City v Charlton (X) 4 points Betvictor @ 3.60

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

Bet 66 09/11/12 F1 Nancy v Rennes (X) 4 points Betvictor @ 3.20 ...1 - 3 Lost Bet 67 09/11/12 F2 Arles v Laval (X) 4 points Betvictor @ 3.10 ...0 - 3 Lost Bet 68 10/11/12 E0 Reading v Norwich (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.54 ...0 - 0 Won Bet 69 10/11/12 E0 Southampton v Swansea (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.67 ...1 - 1 Won Bet 70 10/11/12 E1 Barnsley v Huddersfield (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.42 ...0 - 1 Lost Bet 71 10/11/12 E1 Leeds v Watford (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.76 ...1 - 6 Lost Bet 72 10/11/12 E1 Peterborough v Crystal Palace (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.68 ...1 - 2 Lost Bet 73 10/11/12 E1 Wolves v Brighton (X) 4 points Skybet @ 3.40 ...3 - 3 Won Bet 74 10/11/12 SC0 Kilmarnock v Ross County (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.46 ...3 - 0 Lost Bet 75 11/11/12 E1 Bristol City v Charlton (X) 4 points Betvictor @ 3.60 ...0 - 2 Lost

A busy betting week which, (despite a few one sided looking scorelines), resulted in a small profit at the end of the week. The figures since the start of the season are now: 24 winners from 75 bets (32.00% strike rate) 31.64 points profit from 300 points staked (10.55% yield) After a relatively busy few weeks, there are just five bets next week, four of which are on Saturday.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Four bets for today: 17/11/12 E0 Arsenal v Tottenham (X) 4 points Betvictor @ 3.80 17/11/12 E1 Birmingham v Hull (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.43 17/11/12 E1 Peterborough v Blackburn (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.58 17/11/12 E1 Watford v Wolves (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.59 Back later with one bet for tomorrow.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! After the "carnage" yesterday, there is just one bet today...(Thankfully!!): 18/11/12 SC0 Inverness C v Motherwell (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.65

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

Bet 76 17/11/12 E0 Arsenal v Tottenham (X) 4 points Betvictor @ 3.80 ...5 - 2 Lost Bet 77 17/11/12 E1 Birmingham v Hull (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.43 ...2 - 3 Lost Bet 78 17/11/12 E1 Peterborough v Blackburn (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.58 ...1 - 4 Lost Bet 79 17/11/12 E1 Watford v Wolves (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.59 ...2 - 1 Lost Bet 80 18/11/12 SC0 Inverness C v Motherwell (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.65 ...1 - 5 Lost

I'm sure it could have been worse...I'm just not sure how!! An absolute disaster. It wasn't just the fact there were five losers, it's the nature of them...Three and four goal margins :@ Anyway, moving swiftly on, the figures since the start of the season are now: 24 winners from 80 bets (30.00% strike rate) 11.64 points profit from 320 points staked (3.64% yield) It's probably no bad thing that there are only five bets this week...The first of which is on Friday.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws for profit...Still in profit, but not by much! I've been looking back through your thread with a good deal of interest, it's nice to see someone doing something a little different. I'm a draw backer as well & there aren't that many of us. I must congratulate on your rise through the leagues on the tipsters challenge as well, again it's refreshing to see somebody not putting up the usual tripe. I've been in that comp since I joined over ten years ago & had a good spell doing the admin & I got & still am fed up with the inspired souls who "tip" the bleeding obvious, I suspect that this weeks gem will be Man Utd to beat QPR :eyes Anyway I've been working on a draws method my self which is showing some promise. Up to now I've only been doing the English leagues down to the Blue Sq Premier & the Scottish leagues but I've been working on & have completed the data for the French & German top divisions & I'm going to do the same for the Spanish Primera & Serie A as well. What I find intriguing that looking back through your selections & comparing them to mine I can find only one game so far that we have both selected. That was the Aberdeen v Motherwell match on 23rd September so the good news is when our selections line up we have an 100% strike rate:cigar I'm wondering if your Friday night game this week is the same as the one I have? If so I may have a bit more on that the usual ten bob!! I wish you much success & will continue to watch. Rio.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...Still in profit, but not by much! Hi whoneedsrio, and many thanks for your interest and very kind words.

I've been looking back through your thread with a good deal of interest, it's nice to see someone doing something a little different. I'm a draw backer as well & there aren't that many of us.

Predicting the draw is very popular in division three...Last week there were SEVEN different draws predicted by five different tipsters, and we didn't get one right between us!!

I must congratulate on your rise through the leagues on the tipsters challenge as well, again it's refreshing to see somebody not putting up the usual tripe. I've been in that comp since I joined over ten years ago & had a good spell doing the admin & I got & still am fed up with the inspired souls who "tip" the bleeding obvious, I suspect that this weeks gem will be Man Utd to beat QPR :eyes

I know that pride comes before a fall, but I am pretty chuffed with my performance in the tipsters challenge to date, but I'm also the first to acknowledge that it's not like betting in the real world...I suspect that everyone, (including me) has the same goals in the tipsters competition...In order of importance: 1/ Don't get relegated 2/ Get promoted 3/ Win the division 4/ Finish in profit...And in the real world, that's the only one that matters. As for Man Utd v QPR...I might tip them in the cup competition :\

Anyway I've been working on a draws method my self which is showing some promise. Up to now I've only been doing the English leagues down to the Blue Sq Premier & the Scottish leagues but I've been working on & have completed the data for the French & German top divisions & I'm going to do the same for the Spanish Primera & Serie A as well.

With your selection method, do you treat all countries/divisions in the same way? I'd love the "symmetry" of being able to rate everything in exactly the same way, but when I tried doing that with my own ratings, it became apparent that not all leagues are created equally! As an example, a goal is always worth the same in my ratings regardless of the country etc, but the difference between divisions within a country is not always the same...Until very recently a team promoted to the English Prem. was pretty much guaranteed to struggle all season, but that certainly isn't always the case in the lower divisions.

What I find intriguing that looking back through your selections & comparing them to mine I can find only one game so far that we have both selected. That was the Aberdeen v Motherwell match on 23rd September so the good news is when our selections line up we have an 100% strike rate:cigar I'm wondering if your Friday night game this week is the same as the one I have? If so I may have a bit more on that the usual ten bob!!

Hmmm, I'm not sure if it's a good or a bad thing that we agree so rarely...I guess it indicates that we are probably using quite different criteria in arriving at our selections. On balance, It's probably a good thing, (100% strike rate isn't to be sniffed at!! lol) but the sample size is rather small. And I'd think twice before going to town on Nimes this Friday even if your sytem picks them...France is SERIOUSLY under performing for me this season, on top of which, November has been awful full stop.

I wish you much success & will continue to watch. Rio.

Once again, thank you and I wish you every success with your system in the future. Do you intend to start your own draws thread on here? And possibly discuss SOME of the details of your system...Now that Machine has stopped posting his excellent A.I.D.E. system, PL is a little short on draws.

[Machine]

Re: Draws for profit...Still in profit, but not by much!

.Now that Machine has stopped posting his excellent A.I.D.E. system' date=' PL is a little short on draws.[/quote'] Did intend to put them up this season but the prog went haywire again messed all the database up,so I took the hump and binned it rather than keep messing with it, plus work commitments, it just wasnt worth the effort. My lads had a play with the database and NN and gets some joy from it, but the volume seems to be missing. It did pick Hyde v Alfreton for tonight ( 1-1 after 43 mins , still plenty time left) :hope If I were you I'd ditch the foreign and jock leagues, I always found them more trouble than theyre worth. Your doing ok 30% sr keep that up and play at pinny and you should make a profit. :ok

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws for profit...Still in profit, but not by much!

I'd think twice before going to town on Nimes this Friday even if your sytem picks them

I'll stop looking down the back of the sofa for the extra ten bob because thats not the game I have for Friday;)

With your selection method, do you treat all countries/divisions in the same way?

It's the same method for all leagues, I was playing around with it in the English divisions from around March last season & have carried on from the start of September with the Scottish leagues added. I like to let the first few games in August go by to let the players get match fit.

Do you intend to start your own draws thread on here?

I'll have a think but I don't see why not. The good thing is with football that you have more time to sort yourself out, with horse racing (my main thing on here) it's more fluid, you don't know what's running till the day before, the ground might change etc. I've got time to update the results from the English leagues this evening for instance before Saturday. ATB, Rio.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Let's hope this week is a Hell of a lot better than last week! One for Friday to start off with: 23/11/12 F2 Nimes v Lens (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.25

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Four bets for today...I forgot that the Sunderland match kicks off in less than an hour!: 24/11/12 E0 Sunderland v West Brom (X) 4 points Marathon @ 3.45 24/11/12 E1 Blackburn v Millwall (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.80 24/11/12 F1 Sochaux v Nice (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.29 24/11/12 SC0 Hibernian v Aberdeen (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.43

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

Bet 81 23/11/12 F2 Nimes v Lens (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.25 ...1 - 2 Lost Bet 82 24/11/12 E0 Sunderland v West Brom (X) 4 points Marathon @ 3.45 ...2 - 4 Lost Bet 83 24/11/12 E1 Blackburn v Millwall (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.80 ...0 - 2 Lost Bet 84 24/11/12 F1 Sochaux v Nice (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.29 ...0 - 1 Lost Bet 85 24/11/12 SC0 Hibernian v Aberdeen (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.43 ...0 - 1 Lost

The current losing run is now up to twelve, November has been absolutely awful, and it's not over yet! :eyes The figures since the start of the season are now: 24 winners from 85 bets (28.24% strike rate) 8.36 points loss from 340 points staked (-2.46% yield) Given my current "stellar performance". I hope there aren't too many bets next week...Oh great, just ten bets next week, (starting with two on Tuesday) :\

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! As threatened, two bets for tomorrow...And it gets worse, there are three more bets on Wednesday! 27/11/12 SC0 Aberdeen v Inverness C (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.52 27/11/12 SC0 Dundee United v Motherwell (X) 4 points Marathon @ 3.50

[OldMan]

Re: Draws for profit...In the red!!!! Hello Drawsandmore! I hunt draws like you and follow your topic. This month has been difficult for everyone, I hope it ends soon ... For tomorrow I'm with you on this game: Dundee United v Motherwell :hope

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws for profit...In the red!!!!

Given my current "stellar performance". I hope there aren't too many bets next week...Oh great, just ten bets next week, (starting with two on Tuesday) :\

As I've just put in my thread winners & losers come in clusters & it's never as simple as "three winners every 10 bets at 30% strike rate" but then I'm sure you know that. For me the biggest single factor in betting is how you handle the losing run, if you think your selection method is sound & your staking plan is also sound then you carry on until proven otherwise. I'm sure the bad run will snap soon & enjoy it when it does. I note we both have the Aberdeen/ICT game this evening, although after Sunderland/WBA at the weekend our combined strike rate is down at 50%:lol ATB, Rio.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...In the red!!!! Hi Rio...Let's hope that this is the start of one of those "winning clusters" for both of us, and we can get our combined strike rate up to 66.66% tonight.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...In the red!!!! The losing run continues...Fourteen and counting! It's actually becoming quite predictable...I predict the draw and either the home team under performs, or the away team plays a blinder. Nine out of the last ten "draws" have ended up as aways :@ Not sure if there is anything to read into that, other than I keep losing!

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Three more...I will be betting the draw, but there could be good money to be made laying the home! lol 28/11/12 E0 Swansea v West Brom (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.64 28/11/12 E0 Tottenham v Liverpool (X) 4 points Skybet @ 3.50 28/11/12 SC0 St Johnstone v Hibernian (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.53 As Pinnacle let the smart bettors set the market for them, I would expect their prices to drift alarmingly on my selections! :loon

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! :wall:wall:wall Another three losers...Seventeen matches and not a single draw! I couldn't pick my nose at the moment !!!

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Right then, enough feeling sorry for myself!...Let's look at this without the emotion. My bank is now 30% smaller than when I started...Disappointing to say the least, but hardly the end of the world. The whole point of a betting bank is for just this eventuality. I've had good runs, (five from six was pretty damned good), and I'm currently in a very bad run...No winners from seventeen is pretty damned bad, but it is still way too early to throw in the towel. I didn't think I'd suddenly cracked it when my win percentage was 40%, so why should I think it's all gone to sh*t because of a bad run? The bad run proves nothing, (except that I'm having a bad run)! When I had the good run, I knew it didn't mean the system had suddenly improved beyond all expectations, suddenly becoming my pension plan. I also know that it hasn't become the worst draw predictor in the world over the last few weeks, (although it's much harder to believe!) It's probably still somewhere in the middle. I've done a pretty rough calculation, and in matches that are usually fairly evenly matched, (according to the odds at least), I reckon that the odds of going seventeen matches without finding a draw are over 150/1...In fact, I suspect most people would struggle to predict seventeen matches that didn't include a draw if they tried! So for now, I'll bite the bullet and continue to bet and post my selections, hoping, (nay, expecting) that the numbers will even themselves out, and that what we are seeing at the moment is just "one of those things" rather than the end of my "beautiful strategy"! There is one selection tomorrow: 30/11/12 F2 Arles v Le Mans (X) 4 points Bet365 @ 3.10

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws for profit...In the red!!!!

My bank is now 30% smaller than when I started...Disappointing to say the least, but hardly the end of the world. The whole point of a betting bank is for just this eventuality.

Spot on.

I've had good runs, (five from six was pretty damned good), and I'm currently in a very bad run...No winners from seventeen is pretty damned bad, but it is still way too early to throw in the towel. I didn't think I'd suddenly cracked it when my win percentage was 40%, so why should I think it's all gone to sh*t because of a bad run? The bad run proves nothing, (except that I'm having a bad run)!

And again.

I've done a pretty rough calculation, and in matches that are usually fairly evenly matched, (according to the odds at least), I reckon that the odds of going seventeen matches without finding a draw are over 150/1...In fact, I suspect most people would struggle to predict seventeen matches that didn't include a draw if they tried!

The break even point in terms of strike rate is 30% & at that number the longest expected losing run should be around 14, at 25% it's 17, at 40% it's 10 & even at 50% you can expect a losing run of seven. If only it were so easy as three wins every 10 bets! Clusters!! Keep the faith. Rio.

[foxinexile]

Re: Draws for profit...In the red!!!! Keep going, Drawsandmore, I'm sure the run will end soon. It is the toughest test of anyone's resolve to carry on when the inevitable losing run happens (and heaven knows I've experienced them myself!) but I think you have a good system and I am sure the results will turn in your favour. The fact that yourself and a couple of the other guys are even attempting systems based purely on Draws is respectful enough on its own. Without doubt it's the most difficult of the three possible outcomes in a football match to predict, and personally I wouldn't even dare try it! All the best for the rest of the season!