First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

[Mustafa]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

Mustafa' date=' I keep a very close eye to this game, since the winner faces my CSKA Sofia next. Actually I am surprised that you say that Baku played poor. I checked that they have quite substantial budget for Eastern European standards (of course, not Russia and Ukraine included), and they have 5-6 internationals with very impressive CVs. Adding to this the unbearable heat in Baku, the boiling atmosphere at the stadium (I remember it from 2009 match Baku-Levski), and the traditionally very strong home performance of Caucasian sides, I see this game as a very easy home victory. My only reservation is that I know next to nothing about Mura, and I've noticed that Slovenian teams (as well as the national team) should not be underestimated.[/quote'] FC Baku finished 5th in the league last season and since our league is split after first two rounds of fixtures are played, with top 6 playing each other twice I would not say they played good. They were also inconsistent. Another factor. You make reference to the previous seasons and our good performance at home. However, back then our clubs played at national stadium which is located in the city so many people attended the game. Now this stadium is under renovation for FIFA U-17 Women's World Cup and our clubs will play CL and UEL qualifying games at Dalga Arena, which is located almost 50 km away from Baku. Tickets for this game are only sold at the stadium and FC Baku headquarters, which is also located outside Baku. So, I will be very surprised if the stadium will be sold out. Since for some people it will not be reasonable to travel outside the city to buy tickets and then again to go to the game. Furthermore, the pitch at the stadium is artificial. So, I will just support our team without placing any bets.

[bet4money]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

But i can confirm missing's when it's sure that Africans are not in.

Three players stays home from first leg because of those visa problems i wrote about. O.Williams, H.Sesay and D.Opoku will miss the game. Williams and Sesay are usually at starting 11 and Williams scored for example goal at 1-1 draw against HJK on monday so he is quite big miss to Mypa's attack. O'Neill, Sihvola and Aho also has small problems with injuries but they will probably start tomorrow. Team will travel to Manchester with two different planes and they are leaving Finland early this morning.

[pg_yid]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

Well, as I said I have to check it again. But it seems to me that these are second-leg games (probably after big defeats in the first)?! If it is so, then it changes the situation a lot, because it is usually the first game where these football midgets get the real humiliation, while in the second leg they might sometimes sneak a decent result. Anyway, it is still important to consider the opponent, and it is interesting to note that the pure class of the opponent is not so important (as every team is supposedly way better than those amateurs), but rather its approach and goal-scoring habits. If I go back to your examples, I must say that Finish and Cypriot teams, while maybe better than Renova (APOEL certainly is) are notorious for being extremely under-ish. If you bet on these two championships, you will notice the disproportionally large percentage of "unders". So, it is not so surprising that they might spare some goals against the midgets. In contrast, Eastern European teams tend to get nastier against this kind of opposition. For instance, today Gomel (Belarus) scored whole six away at Faroe Islands (which are way better than San Marino).

The APOEL game that finished 3-1 was the first leg actually. There are always going to be some unusual results though; normally you would expect APOEL to win this game by more goals and to nil. I agree with you that the class of the team is not the only factor. I actually think that smaller teams who are more worried about somehow losing the tie tend to really try and hammer these minnows, whilst the bigger teams don't feel they have anything to prove and often ease off after going 3-0 up. Look at Fulham last year, playing Runavik (I know Faroe teams are much better than Sanmarinese but my point still stands). They won 3-0 at home and then drew 0-0 away. It wouldn't surprise me if Renova win their game by a bigger margin than Twente, for this reason. It very much depends on how much Twente can be bothered, which is difficult to gauge.

[pg_yid]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

Renova is in the top of Macedonian football for some years now and I believe they'll take the game against Libertas seriously and try to finish off the job in the 1st leg. They've had a great end to the domestic season which finished a month ago and surprisingly won the cup to secure European place. Its interesting that their opponents Libertas are the runners up of San Marino and Tre Penne are the champs. Tre Penne were humiliated 7-0 away at Dudelange in the qualification opener today so I really expect to see Renova easily outplaying second best team in San Marino. I'm pretty sure there is value in that -1 EH bet for Renova and I am tempted to go with higher stake at slightly better price locally but I hardly ever take a price below 1,50. My question is how would personally priced that ,what are your fair odds? What's your fair odds for Twente to keep a clean sheet? Im tempted with that as well. Thank you and good luck! I'll update the situation in Renova camp tomorrow.

I would say my fair odds for the Renova -1EH would be 1.1, as for the Twente clean sheet probably 1.15.

[Fedar]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July Pg_Yid, you made a very good point that sometimes smaller teams would be more willing to crush minnows than strongest teams. I would like to add, actually repeat, that I still believe that in this respect it is very important whether the favorite team is under-ish or over-ish. Because, for instance, Fulham are known for scoring little and playing tight, and it is somehow not surprising that a team, which is used throughout the years to being more defensive and compact, once it goes to Europe, it does not all of a sudden starts to play with three forwards and goes pushing for tones of goals. That's exactly what makes me think than Twente will probably destroy them - the Entschede teams is very offensive, scores a lot, and it frequently crashes some weaker teams in the Eredivisie with more than 4 goals. Especially in the first half of last season, I remember the usual coefficients for "over 2.5" at Twente home games were priced ridiculously at around 1.20. I have reasons to believe that since Twente does this regularly in their home division, I don't see why they would spare the Andorrans, especially given that now they are very fresh, and Twente tends to be stronger and scores more in the beginning and first half of season.

[pg_yid]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

Pg_Yid' date=' you made a very good point that sometimes smaller teams would be more willing to crush minnows than strongest teams. I would like to add, actually repeat, that I still believe that in this respect it is very important whether the favorite team is under-ish or over-ish. Because, for instance, Fulham are known for scoring little and playing tight, and it is somehow not surprising that a team, which is used throughout the years to being more defensive and compact, once it goes to Europe, it does not all of a sudden starts to play with three forwards and goes pushing for tones of goals. That's exactly what makes me think than Twente will probably destroy them - the Entschede teams is very offensive, scores a lot, and it frequently crashes some weaker teams in the Eredivisie with more than 4 goals. Especially in the first half of last season, I remember the usual coefficients for "over 2.5" at Twente home games were priced ridiculously at around 1.20. I have reasons to believe that since Twente does this regularly in their home division, I don't see why they would spare the Andorrans, especially given that now they are very fresh, and Twente tends to be stronger and scores more in the beginning and first half of season.[/quote'] Yes, I think you've made a good point about overs/unders. It is something we must consider in these games. In case anyone is interested, here is another article on the Welsh sides. http://matthewburgessfootball.wordpress.com/2012/07/04/stiff-test-once-again-awaits-euro-bound-welsh-clubs/

[mtom]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

2. Saraevo - Hibernians. I have to remind that Maltese teams, although still amateurs and outsiders, are at least a level or two above those San Marino and Andorra. Still, I think the bookies have a little under-estimated the Bosnian side at 1.15 for a pure home win. Saraevo is one of the two most popular and strongest Bosnian teams. They have class, they have ambition to try to go to at least the play-off round, and they will have good support from the crowd. I don't expect crushing and humiliation here, but a classy and convenient 3:0 win should not be a problem for Saraevo.

A Bulgarian (and a CSKA Sofia supporter) who used to live in Malta here :) Not that it matters much, but Maltese teams are actually professional teams (at least in the premier league) or at least that's what I know from friends who have played in Malta. Anyhow, don't want to sound cocky, just thought i should mention it. As for the game itself I don't know much about Saraevo, but for Hibs I can say that they are the second best team in Malta (after Valletta) and usually battle with Valletta, Sliema and occasionally Floriana for the top places. They have already played two official games winning 5-0 against Birkirkara and a 1-0 victory over Valletta in the Euro Challenge Cup. Not sure whether they have sign or released any players (I will probably find out tomorrow if I can) but they have a new coach, who was their former player Michael Woods. Don't get me wrong, I am far from suggesting that Hibernians can shock the Bosnian side, I just thought I'd give some clarification about the team itself. 1.15-1.20 is definitely too low for straight home win, but since I don't know how Saraevo will start the game I don't think the -2 AH at ~2 is worth either. I expect the Maltese to 'park the bus' and try and break on a counter-attack. If I had to bet on anything it would be under 3.5 or 3.75 just for odds' sake, but I think I'll pass. There are two other games which have interested me though and I'd appreciate if someone could help me out. The first one is Differdange - NSI Runavik. Luxembourg side against Faroe side, obviously neither can pride itself with any significant results and yet I don't see why the home team is priced so low? Faroe league is running and yes Runavik is not doing great (currently 8th out of 10) but they won against league leaders last week and have two victories, a draw and two defeats in their last 5. On the other hand Differdange were still in their pre-season. The only reason I see for the low odds is that Runavik has to travel far to Luxembourg, but apart from that I honestly don't see any other reason. Of course, it is almost impossible to find any information regarding team news, but still +0.75 for Runavik @ ~1.95-2 seems fine to me. I doubt Differdange is so great in attack, moreover I expect the Faroe's side to try and keep the ball as much as possible and to play compact in defense and keep their chances alive when they will play at home. Moreover, even internationally I regard Faroe football to be slightly better than Luxembourg, so once again if someone can give me some more information on why the odds are set the way they are now it would be greatly appreciated. The second game that caught my attention is Levadia - Siauliai. The Estonians are still undefeated in their domestic leage while Siauliai is a mid-table team from Lithuania. They finished 4th last year and got the last place for the Europa League qualifications. I see the odds started dropping almost everywhere, so I guess someone else though like me that home win was overrated, but once again if there are people reading the forum from one of the two countries, Estonia or Lithuania, or just someone with more knowledge than me (in all honesty I still haven't checked anything about these two teams) please do share your opinion :)

[Fedar]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July Mtom, you have given absolutely great contribution with this opinion. That's what I was aiming at - trying to get as many opinions from insiders as possible, since getting information about some of these teams is a real challenge. The remark about the professional status of Hibs is not cocky at all, and I think it does matter. It surely means higher fitness level and more quality. I did some check-up myself on this tie (because I knew nothing about Hibs and little about Sarajevo), and after my research, I also think that it is not worth betting for home win or handicaps at this price. Sarajevo is much better and will surely qualify, but it is not unlikely that we gonna see some tight games. As you said, Hibs are the second best team in Malta, and Valletta yesterday won with horrendous score. Maybe Hibs are now at the level of Welsh and some Northern Irish teams. Sarajevo on the other hand are tough and ambitious, but after checking their performance, I see that they tend to be very under-ish. They are stable in their back, but they often have difficulties finding the net. And with guest-team probably parking the bus and well organized in defense, even a 0:0 draw won't be unlikely (like yesterdays Linfield -Torshavn).

[pg_yid]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

A Bulgarian (and a CSKA Sofia supporter) who used to live in Malta here :) Not that it matters much, but Maltese teams are actually professional teams (at least in the premier league) or at least that's what I know from friends who have played in Malta. Anyhow, don't want to sound cocky, just thought i should mention it. As for the game itself I don't know much about Saraevo, but for Hibs I can say that they are the second best team in Malta (after Valletta) and usually battle with Valletta, Sliema and occasionally Floriana for the top places. They have already played two official games winning 5-0 against Birkirkara and a 1-0 victory over Valletta in the Euro Challenge Cup. Not sure whether they have sign or released any players (I will probably find out tomorrow if I can) but they have a new coach, who was their former player Michael Woods. Don't get me wrong, I am far from suggesting that Hibernians can shock the Bosnian side, I just thought I'd give some clarification about the team itself. 1.15-1.20 is definitely too low for straight home win, but since I don't know how Saraevo will start the game I don't think the -2 AH at ~2 is worth either. I expect the Maltese to 'park the bus' and try and break on a counter-attack. If I had to bet on anything it would be under 3.5 or 3.75 just for odds' sake, but I think I'll pass. There are two other games which have interested me though and I'd appreciate if someone could help me out. The first one is Differdange - NSI Runavik. Luxembourg side against Faroe side, obviously neither can pride itself with any significant results and yet I don't see why the home team is priced so low? Faroe league is running and yes Runavik is not doing great (currently 8th out of 10) but they won against league leaders last week and have two victories, a draw and two defeats in their last 5. On the other hand Differdange were still in their pre-season. The only reason I see for the low odds is that Runavik has to travel far to Luxembourg, but apart from that I honestly don't see any other reason. Of course, it is almost impossible to find any information regarding team news, but still +0.75 for Runavik @ ~1.95-2 seems fine to me. I doubt Differdange is so great in attack, moreover I expect the Faroe's side to try and keep the ball as much as possible and to play compact in defense and keep their chances alive when they will play at home. Moreover, even internationally I regard Faroe football to be slightly better than Luxembourg, so once again if someone can give me some more information on why the odds are set the way they are now it would be greatly appreciated. The second game that caught my attention is Levadia - Siauliai. The Estonians are still undefeated in their domestic leage while Siauliai is a mid-table team from Lithuania. They finished 4th last year and got the last place for the Europa League qualifications. I see the odds started dropping almost everywhere, so I guess someone else though like me that home win was overrated, but once again if there are people reading the forum from one of the two countries, Estonia or Lithuania, or just someone with more knowledge than me (in all honesty I still haven't checked anything about these two teams) please do share your opinion :)

Luxembourg's league has a higher UEFA coefficient than the Faroese League, 2.25 to 1.208. This is based on past European results, so I'd say they are justifiably odds-on favourites. In my experience of games I've watched, Luxembourg's national team are better than the Faroe Islands, and are improving faster, though both teams are improving. There is quite a lot of investment on training facilities and youth development in Luxembourg at the moment, and it is beginning to show, with the national team now having a young average age and some promising players. This game could be a draw though, like last night's game. I'd say the odds are about right.

[belfastchris]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July Here is what i have gone for & reasoning also :) For £20 - Returns £172 [TABLE=class: bsdt]

[TR] [TD=class: lft]MyPa@(-2.0)[/TD] [TD=class: lft]- Newi Cefn Druids v MyPa[/TD] [TD=class: ctr]@ 2.35 = This Welsh team being in Euro Cup is bit of a strange one, they got lucky to the cup final ( being their 1st time in final in 108 years ) and got beat 2-0. They finished 6th in the Division below the Premier and have amateur players! MyPa are mid season ( fitness ) previous Euro experience. This should be a high scoring away win [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: rgt first]Renova@(-2.0)[/TD] [TD=class: lft] -Renova v Libertas[/TD] [TD=class: lft]@1.26 = Renova will be to stong for the San Marino team, i seen Renova last year against Glentoran(Belfast) they are a strong physical team (even as they lost to Glentoran on Pens.) Renova won the cup and finished 3rd in league. Libertas are the San Marino factor poor in Europe as always This should be a high scoring home win[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: rgt first]Osijek@(-2.0)[/TD] [TD=class: lft]Santa Coloma v Osijek[/TD] [TD=class: lft]@1.98 = Osijek are a young team from Croatia, most of their players have been in Under 20,19,18 ect Croatia team & have an ex Internationals for Bosina, they were runners up in Cup. Santa Coloma have the Andorra/San Marino factor, they do hold alot of Andorra Internationals with high experiance in International games ( Im hoping that Osijek want to get the job done away from home ) This should be an away win of 2-3 goals [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: nbb] [TD=class: rgt first] Hafnarfjodour@(-1.0) [/TD] [TD=class: lft]FH Hafnarfjodour v USV Eschen/Mauren [/TD] [TD=class: ctr]@1.65 = Hafnarfjodour are in the middle of their season top of the league scoring alot of goals with fitness should be key here also. 3 of their players are in the top 4 for goals scored. USV Eschen/Mauren finished 4th in the 2nd tier of the Swiss league and made Euro through local cup, but have a few Liechtensteine Internationals. Fitness and form of FH should win. This should be a home win by 2-3 goals[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[mtom]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

Luxembourg's league has a higher UEFA coefficient than the Faroese League' date=' 2.25 to 1.208. This is based on past European results, so I'd say they are justifiably odds-on favourites. In my experience of games I've watched, Luxembourg's national team are better than the Faroe Islands, and are improving faster, though both teams are improving. There is quite a lot of investment on training facilities and youth development in Luxembourg at the moment, and it is beginning to show, with the national team now having a young average age and some promising players. This game could be a draw though, like last night's game. I'd say the odds are about right.[/quote'] Fair enough, thanks for that, it was foolish of me to talk without checking first, but I guess I had made some assumptions on my own thinking Faroe football is better than Luxembourgian one. In any case, depending on the information I manage to find by tomorrow I might still go for the +0.75, I just have that inexplicable gut-feeling, you know, but I'll make up my mind later. Good luck to all!

[pg_yid]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July PP offering Renova -2EH @ 1.83 (was 1.91)...pile on if you can, the equivalent -2.5AH is 1.4 with Bet365 :lol

[Jase82]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July -1.5 AH is the equivalent of a -1 EH..... I assume you've jumped the gun :ok

[pg_yid]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

-1.5 AH is the equivalent of a -1 EH..... I assume you've jumped the gun :ok

Sorry, it's been a long day. I meant the -2.5AH, have corrected my post now. Didn't jump the gun, but if I had wouldn't have been a major issue since PP will only let me have £2.55 on it anyway! Just thought I would let others know.

[belfastchris]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July Thats some odds Pg_tiy for Renova -2AH @ 1.83.. i shall look to this myself :)

[belfastchris]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July [TABLE]

[TR=class: bselection] [TD] Which one of these teams are more likely to make my bet lose - £10 - Returns = £226.47 [TABLE=width: 45] [TR] [TD=align: left][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Europa League Qualifiers FK Renova v AC Libertas | 05-07-2012 16:30 Alternative Handicap FK Renova (-1.0) @ 3/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: bselection] [TD] Europa League Qualifiers Elfsborg v Floriana FC 05-07-2012 17:00 Alternative Handicap Elfsborg (-1.0) @ 1/4 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: bselection] [TD] Europa League Qualifiers Lech Poznan v FC Zhetysu 05-07-2012 19:00 Alternative Handicap Lech Poznan (-1.0) @ 8/15 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: bselection] [TD] Europa League Qualifiers Cefn Druids v Mypa Myllykoski 05-07-2012 19:30 Handicap Betting Mypa Myllykoski (-1.0) @ 10/11 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: bselection] [TD] Europa League Qualifiers LA Fiorita v FK Metalurgs Liepaja 05-07-2012 19:30 Alternative Handicap FK Metalurgs Liepaja (-1.0) @ 5/6 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: bselection] [TD] Europa League Qualifiers Crusaders v Rosenborg 05-07-2012 20:00 Alternative Handicap Rosenborg (-1.0) @ 5/6 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: bselection] [TD] Europa League Qualifiers FH Hafnarfjordur v Eschen/Mauren 05-07-2012 20:15 Alternative Handicap FH Hafnarfjordur (-1.0) @ 4/6 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[RocknRolla]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July I could only managed to find one little interview with the head coach of FK Renova Vlatko Kostov in which he says that his players must not underestimate Libertas and that they've especially worked on that part. Wants to see a victory by at least 2 or 3 goals but without conceding. I have already jumped on -1 EH Renova @ 1,30 with max stake as it really looks a cert. I am also going to have a small punt on Renova to score two or more in the first half at 2,25 which seems really generously in one of my locals. Know you wont find that offer online but for anyone interested PP and Boylesports are above evens on -1 EH in first half. Good luck with this one :hope

[Alovenac]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July Sarajevo - Hibernians Sarajevo will be playing here against amateurs out Malta. Sarajevo had enough quality to win here with 2 goals difference. Sarajevo can be play with a full squad. That will be enough to finish this round in the first match. 3/10 Sarajevo -1.75 @ 1.79 Pinnacle Cefn Druids - MyPa Odds on MyPa line will be dropping to hard, but will be play the over here. This will be a match between amateurs and professional players. MyPa will be finish here this ground, but the second match they are playing on neutral venue. I think this must be a easy win for them. 2/10 Over 2.5 goals @ 1.65 Sportingbet

[Mustafa]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July FC Baku - Mura: Update Due technical reasons Mura arrived to Baku only last night and their trip lasted 12 hours. So, I wonder whether they will have enough time to recover, have rest and properly train before the game. Looks like it will be an easy win for us :)

[HastGill1]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July Below are my bets for today, more for my records than anything else. Seem to have taken on more than I expected to but I think there are some decent opportunities if you can get on prices at the right times.. Renova v Libertas 16:30 Quite a bit has already been written about this game already, its difficult to see how the part-timers from San Marino can get anything from their tough trip to Macedonia, Renova don't look like world beaters but their results towards the end of the season were decent and anything other than a two goal margin of victory would be a surprise, I think it will be 3 or 4-0. Elfsborg v Floriana 17:00 Not been talked about I don't think but another one of the probable home victories, Elfsborg are well into their domestic campaign and superb at home with a 7-0-0 record on their artificial pitch, and sit top of the league. Floriana are a mid to higher level side from Malta in pre-season mode and I wouldn't expect them to be in the same good shape as Elfsborg, Elfsborg won their two home games against similar opponents last season in this comp 3-0 and 4-0, I think it will be a similar score this time around. Elfsborg -1EH - 1.36 - Bwin - 10 Points Renova -1EH + Elfsborg -1EH - 1.73 (Double) - Bwin - 10 Points Twente v UE Santa Coloma 18:45 One of the few who managed to get something on before this was removed, FC Twente are a well recognised European side who would reasonably expect to qualify for the group stages, Santa Coloma are from Andorra and this is the biggest mis match of the round. I can say now that Twente will have at least 70% of the possession and should win by between 4-8 goals, I would be surprised if Coloma had more than 2 shots on target the whole game and it will be a real backs to the wall job. A great price, and I got on all I could. Will Santa Coloma Score? No - 1.44 - Bwin - 11 Points Both Teams to Score? No - 1.42 - Bwin - 4 Points Cefn Druids v MyPa Probably the one I'm least confident about in hindsight, taking a tip on this from trusted others on the forum! Price has tumbled and I didn't get the best of it but not the worst either. My fear is this will be 0-0 for a fair while and the handicap win will seem less and less likely, MyPa know they will probably roll them over in Finland. Having said that MyPa are well into their season and Cefn are in pre-season and in poor shape by all accounts. I'm hopeful but not massively confident. Like a few of these games, if an early goal goes in it could end up 4, 5 or 6-0 which is certainly possible. MyPa - 1.44 - Ladbrokes - 5 Points Mypa -1EH - 1.9 - Bwin - 6 Points

[TotoSchillaci]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

Cefn Druids v MyPa Probably the one I'm least confident about in hindsight, taking a tip on this from trusted others on the forum! Price has tumbled and I didn't get the best of it but not the worst either. My fear is this will be 0-0 for a fair while and the handicap win will seem less and less likely, MyPa know they will probably roll them over in Finland. Having said that MyPa are well into their season and Cefn are in pre-season and in poor shape by all accounts. I'm hopeful but not massively confident. Like a few of these games, if an early goal goes in it could end up 4, 5 or 6-0 which is certainly possible. MyPa - 1.44 - Ladbrokes - 5 Points Mypa -1EH - 1.9 - Bwin - 6 Points

Read somewhere the 2nd leg is at a neutral venue. Don't know if that counts for or against our bet. Good luck mate :ok

[belfastchris]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

Read somewhere the 2nd leg is at a neutral venue. Don't know if that counts for or against our bet. Good luck mate :ok

Second leg is neutral also being played at FC Lahti home ground :) The Welsh team manager as said - “We know what we need to do. We have to go out and give it a go at them. “It is likely that we will probably be defending a lot at times, but we will go at them. “Our main aim is to score and then we’ll take it from there.” Hopefully this will mean they are not 5-6 in defence :)

[soundingstylish]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July Elfsborg x Floriana - Elfsborg EH -2 @ 4/5 with Paddy Power. Elfsborg are my favourite Swedish 'ballers and they are STRONG at the Boras Arena on their artificial turf. They were whacked 5-1 last time out but they would of had one eye on this match and Champions usually hit back after a loss. Floriana are a youngish side, some haven't even been outside of Malta, and the boss has stated that they will be on a "damage-limitation mission" after being humiliated 9-0 by AEK Larnaca at this stage last year. Although it won't be a humiliation, I think the home side will take a healthy scoreline with them to Malta to finish the tie off. Lech Poznan x Zhetysu - Lech Poznan Win Both Halves @ 5/4 with Paddy Power. Poznan are an ever-present in Europe and host a Kazakhstan side that have changed massively since they topped their division last season. They scored 39 goals last season, 18 of which were scored by Bakayev, he has since been sold. Currently they sit 13th (second bottom) having lost all their best players and they will find it tough in Poland. In their own domestic league they have played eight matches away from home and lost all eight (scored 4, conceded 20). Rudnevs has been sold to Hamburg by Poznan but they should still be able to get the job done quite comfortably I'd imagine.

[pg_yid]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July FC Santa Coloma vs NK Osijek Both teams to score? No @ 1.62 (Skybet) 5/10 If you look at the last 16 home matches of Andorran sides in Europe, 13 of them would have seen this bet come in, including the last six against sides of Osijek's calibre. They are much like their national side when they played in European competition, in that they try and concentrate on not conceding, and they rarely score, although they are improving by all accounts. The pitches in Andorra are all plastic, and the Andorran sides are very physical, and these factors will make it potentially difficult for Osijek. I can see this being a tight game, but if not a look at past results show that it probably be a 0-4 or 0-5 scoreline, as Andorran sides tend not to get a consolation goal.

[pg_yid]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

Below are my bets for today, more for my records than anything else. Seem to have taken on more than I expected to but I think there are some decent opportunities if you can get on prices at the right times.. Renova v Libertas 16:30 Quite a bit has already been written about this game already, its difficult to see how the part-timers from San Marino can get anything from their tough trip to Macedonia, Renova don't look like world beaters but their results towards the end of the season were decent and anything other than a two goal margin of victory would be a surprise, I think it will be 3 or 4-0. Elfsborg v Floriana 17:00 Not been talked about I don't think but another one of the probable home victories, Elfsborg are well into their domestic campaign and superb at home with a 7-0-0 record on their artificial pitch, and sit top of the league. Floriana are a mid to higher level side from Malta in pre-season mode and I wouldn't expect them to be in the same good shape as Elfsborg, Elfsborg won their two home games against similar opponents last season in this comp 3-0 and 4-0, I think it will be a similar score this time around. Elfsborg -1EH - 1.36 - Bwin - 10 Points Renova -1EH + Elfsborg -1EH - 1.73 (Double) - Bwin - 10 Points Twente v UE Santa Coloma 18:45 One of the few who managed to get something on before this was removed, FC Twente are a well recognised European side who would reasonably expect to qualify for the group stages, Santa Coloma are from Andorra and this is the biggest mis match of the round. I can say now that Twente will have at least 70% of the possession and should win by between 4-8 goals, I would be surprised if Coloma had more than 2 shots on target the whole game and it will be a real backs to the wall job. A great price, and I got on all I could. Will Santa Coloma Score? No - 1.44 - Bwin - 11 Points Both Teams to Score? No - 1.42 - Bwin - 4 Points Cefn Druids v MyPa Probably the one I'm least confident about in hindsight, taking a tip on this from trusted others on the forum! Price has tumbled and I didn't get the best of it but not the worst either. My fear is this will be 0-0 for a fair while and the handicap win will seem less and less likely, MyPa know they will probably roll them over in Finland. Having said that MyPa are well into their season and Cefn are in pre-season and in poor shape by all accounts. I'm hopeful but not massively confident. Like a few of these games, if an early goal goes in it could end up 4, 5 or 6-0 which is certainly possible. MyPa - 1.44 - Ladbrokes - 5 Points Mypa -1EH - 1.9 - Bwin - 6 Points

Have done the Elfsborg one as well. Fingers crossed for MyPa.

[soundingstylish]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July Elfsborg XI vs Floriana: Ellegard; Johan Larsson, Jon Jonsson, Joachim Jorgensen, Andreas Klarstrom; Viktor Claesson, Anders Svensson, Marcus Rohden, Niklas Hult; Lasse Nilsson & Amadou Jawo. Ishizaki and David Elm will start on the bench after knocks in the last game.

[Zacharael]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July Anyone got info of Kups vs Llanelli game ? I have a feeling Llanelli can surprise here, or at least do good enough to be a winner on handicap. I don't think the difference between these two sides is that huge as odds suggest. Would be nice if anyone could come up with some info.

[belfastchris]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

Anyone got info of Kups vs Llanelli game ? I have a feeling Llanelli can surprise here' date=' or at least do good enough to be a winner on handicap. I don't think the difference between these two sides is that huge as odds suggest. Would be nice if anyone could come up with some info.[/quote'] Its a game i wasn't sure about.. Kups are in mid season but are 1 place from bottom of league & just scraped a 1-0 win from team at the bottom.. Llanelli finished 3rd and only 5 points short of top spot, though they have lost there top scorer Rhys Griffiths who moved back to his home town club of Port Talbort he scored 180 goals in 181 games for Llanelli - with 25 goals in 30 games last season! Usually welsh teams dont do well in Euro! I think be a close call maybe a 1-0 win to Kups, with Llanelli sitting back with 5 in defence!

[MightyWell]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July La Fiorita v Liepajas Metalurgs There seems to be value in the away win here at ~1.3. While not a huge price, when you compare it to similar mismatches (~1.15 for Osijek at Santa Coloma) it starts to look interesting. Admittedly, this is more a bet against the Sammarinese team than for the Latvian side, but considering the facts it looks pretty solid. Consider San Marino teams' record in Europe: Home: P19 W0 D3 L16 F8 A57 GD-49 Away: P20 W0 D1 L19 F5 A75 GD-70 Overall: P39 W0 D4 L35 F13 A132 GD-119 The record includes Sammarinese champions Tre Penne's 7-0 defeat away to F91 Dudelange of Luxembourg on Tuesday night. To get a sense of perspective, F91 Dudelange were themselves defeated 6-1 on aggregate by Latvian champions Ventspils in the Champions League qualifiers three years ago. Last season, Liepajas Metalurgs finished 2nd in the Latvian league, one point behind Ventspils, winning 13 out of 16 away games. I don't know much about Liepajas Metalurgs aside from these statistics, so if anyone can help out here that would be much appreciated, but with all of the above in mind I would suggest they look very likely to come out on top here.

[belfastchris]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July MightyWell i would go with your same stats, Ive Liepajas Metalurgs in most of my bets as -1 & -2 goals... Esp as Liepajas Metalurgs are in middle of league season & La Fiorita havent played in two months.... Liepajas Metalurgs also started the last 5 seasons in the 2nd round of Euro, so also a drop down in round & have Internationals of Latvia & Lithuanian in squad. Match fixing if not a win for Liepajas Metalurgs.. haha!!