First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

[McNasara]

[TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Tuesday 3 July 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FK Shkendija 79 v Portadown (16:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.33 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7.5 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Víkingur Gøta v FK Gomel (16:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.36 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Thursday 5 July 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FK Khazar Lenkoran v Nõmme JK Kalju (16:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.47 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6.1 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FK Jagodina v FC Ordabasy (16:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.16 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FK Renova v AC Libertas (16:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.08 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 17 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]KuPS v Llanelli (16:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.25 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.55 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Narva JK Trans v Inter Baku (16:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.8 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.8 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Rudar Pljevlja v Shirak Gumri (16:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.59 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.15 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Tallinna FC Levadia v Šiauliai (16:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.72 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]IF Elfsborg v Floriana FC (17:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.1 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 16 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]JJK Jyväskylä v Stabæk (17:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.16 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.25 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Pyunik FC v FK Zeta Golubovci (17:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.75 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Dacia Chisinau v NK Celje (17:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.8 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.33 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Differdange 03 v NSI Runavik (17:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.74 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.3 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FK Suduva v FC Daugava Daugavpils (17:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.93 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.35 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.55 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Birkirkara v FK Metalurg (18:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.75 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.5 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FK Baku v NK Mura 05 (18:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.57 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.75 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.1 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]KF Tirana v CS Grevenmacher (18:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.25 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Torpedo Kutaisi v FK Aktobe (18:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.61 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.75 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.75 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FC Santa Coloma v NK Osijek (18:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 17 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.06 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FK Sarajevo v Hibernians (18:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.16 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 14 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FC Twente v UE Santa Coloma (18:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.03 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 17.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 34 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]EB/Streymur v FC Gandzasar Kapan (19:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.8 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Lech Poznan v FK Zhetysu (19:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.14 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 14 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]MTK Budapest v FK Senica (19:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.1 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Olimpija Ljubljana v Jeunesse d'Esch (19:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.07 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 17 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]KS Flamurtari Vlorë v Budapest Honvéd (19:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.35 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]KS Teuta Durrës v Metalurgi Rustavi (19:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.1 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]NEWI Cefn Druids v MyPa (19:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.9 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.47 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]S.P. La Fiorita v Liepajas Metalurgs (19:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 10 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.05 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.28 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Bangor City v Zimbru Chisinau (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.75 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.1 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Bohemians v Þór Akureyri (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Cliftonville v Kalmar FF (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.36 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]St. Patrick's Athletic v IBV Vestmannaerjar (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6.1 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Crusaders v Rosenborg BK (20:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6.15 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.2 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FK Borac Banja Luka v FK Celik Nikšic (20:05 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.28 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8.5 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FH Hafnarfjördur v USV Eschen/Mauren (20:15 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.36 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Mustafa]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July The best tip here is to avoid placing any bets, unless you have enough info about the teams. Last season I did not make any profit and most of it was due to betting in July-August during Champions League and Europa League Qualifiers.

[pg_yid]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July Newi Cefn Druids vs MyPa MyPa @ 1.47 (Boylesports) 3/10 MyPa -1 (EH) @ 2.25 (Bwin) 1/10 Cefn Druids are a part-time Welsh side who qualified thanks to their domestic cup campaign. They are actually from the second tier of Welsh football, I watched them a couple of times in the cup and I think they are out of their depth at this level. They did well in the cup, beating a couple of teams from the Welsh Premiership, but there is a big difference between the sides they beat and the top Welsh sides. When they played TNS (Welsh Champions) in the Cup final they were completely outclassed. They lost 2-0 but it could have been 5-0. Admittedly, this is a bet against them rather than for MyPa. I don't know much about the Finnish league, but all the teams are professional and it is rated as 30th best in Europe compared to the Welsh league which is 46th. Looking at MyPa's record in Europe, I don't think they will have any problems here. They beat TNS from Wales 1-0 home and away a few years back, and there is a massive difference between TNS and Cefn Druids. They also beat Narva Trans from Estonia with ease (2-0 and 5-0) last year, and Narva Trans are a professional club and also much better than Cefn Druids, in my opinion. Going back further they managed two draws against Dundee United, beating them on away goals. MyPa also have the advantage that they are mid-season, whilst Cefn boss has admitted the game has come too early, see this link http://www.dailypost.co.uk/sport-news/welsh-football-league/2012/06/30/cefn-druids-v-mypa-huw-griffiths-hopes-ancients-come-good-for-europa-league-clash-55578-31290417/. They haven't been able to field a settled side in their friendly matches which included another defeat to TNS, this time 5-0. I know a draw is an okay result for MyPa here but I just think there will be a massive class difference and an easy away win when you consider MyPa are seasoned European campaigners and Cefn are part-timers who have no experience of playing at this level.

[McNasara]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July As Mustafa said these are very tricky games for betting. For many clubs this will be the first competitive match of the new season, while these participants are quite unknown to most of us. Personally, I'll say something about two matches between teams which playing the summer season. Duels among Irish and Icelandic teams... Bohemians vs Thor Akureyri Bohs are young and inexperienced team, characterized by a strong defense. The offensive part of the team is unconvincing, which cost them a better position in the league. They're currently in the mid table, but they're waiting for this match in very good mood. Because they may realized the best result of the last few years in last round when defeated defending champions and big rival, Shamrock Rovers with 4:0 at the Dalymount Park. On the other hand, Thor playing in 2nd league of Iceland, with only one win in last five games (though they're in 4th place). Team consists mainly of domestic players, but with a few foreigners. They play in Europe thanks to National Cup final that were played last season. St Patricks Athletic vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar Pats play a fantastic season with a new coach Buckley and under him they play tight in defense and attractive in the attack. They are currently in the second place with 4 points behind the leaders. Like Bohs, the Saints have been successful in the Dublin derby last Friday (1:0 vs Shelbourne). IBV are in great shape, six consecutive victories with goal difference 21:3. They're currently in the third place in the premier league of Iceland. Players are quite young and inexperienced, but half of them are not Icelanders. IBV defeated Pats 1:0 at home last year, but lost 2:0 in the second leg at Richmond Park. Irish clubs are set as a fairly favorites in the first leg (both home wins priced about 1,50) which is not attractive to me. Besides I'm not familiar with away teams, I'm concerned about the inexperience of Bohemians (and their coach Callaghan) in the first match and about great form of IBV in the second duel. So I think Bohs and Pats are better opponents (and expect them to pass to the second round), but these odds are not in my mind.

[TotoSchillaci]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

Newi Cefn Druids vs MyPa MyPa @ 1.47 (Boylesports) 3/10 MyPa -1 (EH) @ 2.25 (Bwin) 1/10 Cefn Druids are a part-time Welsh side who qualified thanks to their domestic cup campaign. They are actually from the second tier of Welsh football, I watched them a couple of times in the cup and I think they are out of their depth at this level. They did well in the cup, beating a couple of teams from the Welsh Premiership, but there is a big difference between the sides they beat and the top Welsh sides. When they played TNS (Welsh Champions) in the Cup final they were completely outclassed. They lost 2-0 but it could have been 5-0. Admittedly, this is a bet against them rather than for MyPa. I don't know much about the Finnish league, but all the teams are professional and it is rated as 30th best in Europe compared to the Welsh league which is 46th. Looking at MyPa's record in Europe, I don't think they will have any problems here. They beat TNS from Wales 1-0 home and away a few years back, and there is a massive difference between TNS and Cefn Druids. They also beat Narva Trans from Estonia with ease (2-0 and 5-0) last year, and Narva Trans are a professional club and also much better than Cefn Druids, in my opinion. Going back further they managed two draws against Dundee United, beating them on away goals. MyPa also have the advantage that they are mid-season, whilst Cefn boss has admitted the game has come too early, see this link http://www.dailypost.co.uk/sport-news/welsh-football-league/2012/06/30/cefn-druids-v-mypa-huw-griffiths-hopes-ancients-come-good-for-europa-league-clash-55578-31290417/. They haven't been able to field a settled side in their friendly matches which included another defeat to TNS, this time 5-0. I know a draw is an okay result for MyPa here but I just think there will be a massive class difference and an easy away win when you consider MyPa are seasoned European campaigners and Cefn are part-timers who have no experience of playing at this level.

Thanks for the quality post PG and for bringing this match to my attention. MyPa are one of the stronger teams in the Veikkausliga. They have won 4 of their last 5 at home. Typical home team. 3 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 away in the league. All these away games have been very low scoring affairs, 0-0, 1-1 etc. However their last away match was 1-1 away to leaders HJK who are imperious at home and the hardest away trip in the league. So as you said I think the key here is that they're part timers (and are in pre-season while Veikkausliga is 15 games in) and ultimately shouldn't pose a real challenge to MyPa who have a few foreign players also in the squad. Goodluck with the bet mate might follow you :ok

[esperance]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July I think the pick of the games is very last games on the schedule. FH Hafnarfjördur v USV Eschen/Mauren I can see FH's odd being smashed down. I have taken it at 4/11 with willhill. They are currently 9 games into their season. Sitting top of their league. Unbeaten at home 3-2-0. They smashed IA their opponents saturday 2-7 away. Their Liechtenstein opponents on the other hand are out of season. Only qualified for this competition by winning a Liechtenstein cup competition on penalties. They play in switzerland but in the lowerly 4 tier of swiss football. Where they finished 4th in their league last season. :)

[bet4money]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

Thanks for the quality post PG and for bringing this match to my attention. MyPa are one of the stronger teams in the Veikkausliga. They have won 4 of their last 5 at home. Typical home team. 3 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 away in the league. All these away games have been very low scoring affairs, 0-0, 1-1 etc. However their last away match was 1-1 away to leaders HJK who are imperious at home and the hardest away trip in the league. So as you said I think the key here is that they're part timers (and are in pre-season while Veikkausliga is 15 games in) and ultimately shouldn't pose a real challenge to MyPa who have a few foreign players also in the squad. Goodluck with the bet mate might follow you :ok

Mypa has few African players who have problems to get visa's so there is a chance that their not in first leg said Mypa's coach at this day's newspaper. Also Tuomas Aho and O'Neil have some problems with injuries and missed yesterday's game against HJK. But i can confirm missing's when it's sure that Africans are not in.

[HastGill1]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July Here we go again! Have only taken two bets so far, bwin were more than generous to offer 1.44 on FC Twente keeping a clean sheet against Santa Coloma from Andorra. They were also offering 1.42 on both teams scoring - no which I had a piece of after using up my maximum stake, unfortunately they have since removed both from their betting markets. Santa Coloma only won 1 of their last 8 games in all comps at the end of last season which is hardly impressive in the Andorran league, the scoreline could be anything depending on how much Twente want it. I remember backing Fulham heavily at this stage last season when they were playing some team from the Faroe Islands, Fulham won 3-0 but rarely got out of first gear and I think this one will probably be much the same. At this stage you are usually betting against teams from certain countries ie San Marino, Andorra, Malta etc. There used to be good profit to be made simply backing against Welsh and Irish teams virtually regardless of who they were playing, there used to be some crazy scores, I remember Maccabi Haifa against Glentoran a few years ago when I had a 6-0 correct score come in, happy days! They tend to put up a much better fight of it now though although I appreciate the MyPa tip above and will see how the team news pans out before having a piece although the bet itself seems to make good sense.

[TotoSchillaci]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July Yep don't like the sounds of this African visa situation plus the 2 injury doubts bet4money pointed out above. Will wait for team news....if I'm able to find it that is. Also might see a complacent 1-1 or something if they believe they can smash them 7-0 in Finland..don't know. Of course they could also be trying to kill the tie in the first leg seeing their prospects are good in the league.

[IrishTW]

Any opinions on todays Shkendija - Portadown match? Weather in Macedonia is 29 degrees which wont suit the Portadown players. Shkendija have had a disorganised pre season as far as i know, playing just 1 friendly and losing it 5-0 to an Albanian side, however due to the weather I'm tempted to take the home side on the -1 or -1.25 asian hcap. Hastgill... The cefn - mypa match could be another Lisburn - Zestafoni!

[pg_yid]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

Yep don't like the sounds of this African visa situation plus the 2 injury doubts bet4money pointed out above. Will wait for team news....if I'm able to find it that is. Also might see a complacent 1-1 or something if they believe they can smash them 7-0 in Finland..don't know. Of course they could also be trying to kill the tie in the first leg seeing their prospects are good in the league.

Yes the 'rogue draw' occasionally rears its ugly head in these two legged situations, it is something to worry about considering MyPa's underish away record particularly and is the reason why I didn't go for a bigger stake. But I think the difference in class is going to be so big they would almost have to be trying not to score...Cefn Druids finished 6th/16 in the 2nd tier Cymru Alliance, and the 1st tier is probably comparable to English Conference North/South with only TNS (who are full time) at a level where they could compete to avoid relegation in the BSP IMO. And like you say a resounding win would allow them to kill the tie off. I wouldn't worry too much about injury news as whoever plays will be a class above. I can't believe I missed that FC Twente to keep a clean sheet bet. Really kicking myself for that one. :wall

[HastGill1]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

Any opinions on todays Shkendija - Portadown match? Weather in Macedonia is 29 degrees which wont suit the Portadown players. Shkendija have had a disorganised pre season as far as i know, playing just 1 friendly and losing it 5-0 to an Albanian side, however due to the weather I'm tempted to take the home side on the -1 or -1.25 asian hcap. Hastgill... The cefn - mypa match could be another Lisburn - Zestafoni!

Aaah, I remember those crazy Georgian's, battered them by about 4 goals in both legs if I remember correctly! :lol, those where the kind of games I was referring to before.. It's not brilliant but here's a little preview of the Shkendija match, not one I'll be going on as I know nothing of either side and with both in pre season the odds don't look too appealing.. http://www.macedonianfootball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4789:preview-shkendija-portadown&catid=13:international&Itemid=64

[HastGill1]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

Yes the 'rogue draw' occasionally rears its ugly head in these two legged situations, it is something to worry about considering MyPa's underish away record particularly and is the reason why I didn't go for a bigger stake. But I think the difference in class is going to be so big they would almost have to be trying not to score...Cefn Druids finished 6th/16 in the 2nd tier Cymru Alliance, and the 1st tier is probably comparable to English Conference North/South with only TNS (who are full time) at a level where they could compete to avoid relegation in the BSP IMO. And like you say a resounding win would allow them to kill the tie off. I wouldn't worry too much about injury news as whoever plays will be a class above. I can't believe I missed that FC Twente to keep a clean sheet bet. Really kicking myself for that one. :wall

Seen today it's live on bet365 and from memory they usually come out with some AH prices for the games and other bets nearer game day so I'm pretty sure there will be opportunities to get on it still, perhaps not at 1.44 though, 1.3 or above should really be very much worth taking, have to wait and see.. Just had a look and they have AH prices for both games today, one of which is between totally random sides so I think they will have them out for all the remaining games tomorrow or Thurs. With the Twente game live you might be able to get a clean sheet bet on then.

[RocknRolla]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

Any opinions on todays Shkendija - Portadown match? Weather in Macedonia is 29 degrees which wont suit the Portadown players. Shkendija have had a disorganised pre season as far as i know' date=' playing just 1 friendly and losing it 5-0 to an Albanian side, however due to the weather I'm tempted to take the home side on the -1 or -1.25 asian hcap. [/quote'] It's above 35 degrees here atm and that may suit Shkendija more but I wouldnt touch them even now at slightly better odds. Four of their regulars from last season have left the team and some new signings were made but there wasn't enough time to be made up a solid team, which can be noticed by their only pre-season test. Shkendija coach believe to have stronger team and says hes going for the win here, but imo betting on the home team is not worth. GL

[Stavnicar]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July Baku-Mura/1 For me this is the best pair for play,im from Slovenia,Mura will have a long trip,they have very big problems with money(no sponsor),their coach left the club,the best player Lotric has been transfered to Koper,the team average is aboout 21yrs,two weeks ago they played with Baku friendly and they lost.They dont have quality to play with the Baku.Put your houses cars and everything on Baku:ok Sorry for my english

[pg_yid]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/18693693 This is an article by Marc Lloyd Williams, who is a pundit I respect on Welsh football, about the chances of the three Welsh sides in the Europa League.

[Mustafa]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

Baku-Mura/1 For me this is the best pair for play,im from Slovenia,Mura will have a long trip,they have very big problems with money(no sponsor),their coach left the club,the best player Lotric has been transfered to Koper,the team average is aboout 21yrs,two weeks ago they played with Baku friendly and they lost.They dont have quality to play with the Baku.Put your houses cars and everything on Baku:ok Sorry for my english

As far as I know Mura played reserve squad in that game. I personally wouldn't bet on us to win. Last season FC Baku had a really good squad and good coach, but they were really poor when playing against top sides in our league.

[Stavnicar]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July No all best players were playing in that game.In Murska Sobota(Mura) now is total chaos,few hours ago they went to Baku,in the morning when they have training they didnt knew who will go to the Baku so in Murska Sobota stays-Nino Kouter,Filip Drakovic and Ales Majer(problems with the documents)all of them play in the first squad...i am 100% that Baku will win,but in Murska Sobota will be different because they have very good atmosphere....Mustafa,could you tell me something if you know about Dacia Chinsinau(Moldova)?

[HastGill1]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

Newi Cefn Druids vs MyPa MyPa @ 1.47 (Boylesports) 3/10 MyPa -1 (EH) @ 2.25 (Bwin) 1/10 Cefn Druids are a part-time Welsh side who qualified thanks to their domestic cup campaign. They are actually from the second tier of Welsh football, I watched them a couple of times in the cup and I think they are out of their depth at this level. They did well in the cup, beating a couple of teams from the Welsh Premiership, but there is a big difference between the sides they beat and the top Welsh sides. When they played TNS (Welsh Champions) in the Cup final they were completely outclassed. They lost 2-0 but it could have been 5-0. Admittedly, this is a bet against them rather than for MyPa. I don't know much about the Finnish league, but all the teams are professional and it is rated as 30th best in Europe compared to the Welsh league which is 46th. Looking at MyPa's record in Europe, I don't think they will have any problems here. They beat TNS from Wales 1-0 home and away a few years back, and there is a massive difference between TNS and Cefn Druids. They also beat Narva Trans from Estonia with ease (2-0 and 5-0) last year, and Narva Trans are a professional club and also much better than Cefn Druids, in my opinion. Going back further they managed two draws against Dundee United, beating them on away goals. MyPa also have the advantage that they are mid-season, whilst Cefn boss has admitted the game has come too early, see this link http://www.dailypost.co.uk/sport-news/welsh-football-league/2012/06/30/cefn-druids-v-mypa-huw-griffiths-hopes-ancients-come-good-for-europa-league-clash-55578-31290417/. They haven't been able to field a settled side in their friendly matches which included another defeat to TNS, this time 5-0. I know a draw is an okay result for MyPa here but I just think there will be a massive class difference and an easy away win when you consider MyPa are seasoned European campaigners and Cefn are part-timers who have no experience of playing at this level.

Taking this on, had a think about it today and seems the most solid of the bets against the Welsh sides playing on Thursday..didn't get as good odds as you unfortunately, but I think the 1.44 ladbrokes are offering on the straight win won't be around by the end of tomorrow as its down everywhere else, and a few points on the -1.5AH at bwin at what is now 1.9.

[pg_yid]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July Renova vs AC Libertas Renova -1EH @ 1.28 (Bwin) 10/10 Asides from Twente vs Santa Coloma, this is the biggest mismatch of the round. Not that Renova are particularly good, this is a bet against the Sanmarinnese side. Teams from San Marino have a very poor record at this level, as anyone with an interest in the CL/EL qualifying rounds probably already knows! Out of their last 15 away games in Europe, teams from San Marino have lost 14 times, and 13 times they've lost by two clear goals. The time they avoided defeat was against an Andorran side, so can be discounted, and there was also a narrow 2-1 defeat to Valletta of Malta, but that was when Valletta were already 3-0 up from the away leg. Unfortunately, the bookies are aware of this record so the prices were not as good as I was expecting...not as good as in previous years. This 1.28 has been around a few days. I immediately thought it was too high, but wanted to wait for the Asian Handicaps. Unfortunately 365 are on top of things, offering -2.5 @ 1.5 which is marginal value if any, considering the Macedonian league is not the strongest. -2AH is 1.26 so you're obviously much better off going with Bwin. Whilst not a complete cert, I think this is very likely to come in, considering home advantage and the fact that Renova will want to kill off the game before the second leg. Whether or not it's a massive score depends on how early they score, as Libertas will no doubt look to put men behind the ball and get an unlikely 0-0. But with the difference in fitness, Renova being full-time and Libertas part-time, I think they should definitely cover the handicap here.

[Fedar]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

Here we go again! Have only taken two bets so far, bwin were more than generous to offer 1.44 on FC Twente keeping a clean sheet against Santa Coloma from Andorra. They were also offering 1.42 on both teams scoring - no which I had a piece of after using up my maximum stake, unfortunately they have since removed both from their betting markets. Santa Coloma only won 1 of their last 8 games in all comps at the end of last season which is hardly impressive in the Andorran league, the scoreline could be anything depending on how much Twente want it. I remember backing Fulham heavily at this stage last season when they were playing some team from the Faroe Islands, Fulham won 3-0 but rarely got out of first gear and I think this one will probably be much the same. At this stage you are usually betting against teams from certain countries ie San Marino, Andorra, Malta etc.

Well, not quite correct already to put San Marino and Andorra in the same pocket with Faroe Island and Malta (and also Luxembourg). In reality, Faroe Island teams have shown some progress recently and at least give some effort to their opponents. Luxembourg teams are even better and I expect that soon they will be able to throw some surprises. On the opposite, teams from San Marino and Andorra are totally crappy and clueless. I think that every handicap up to -4 for their opponent is reasonable, even if the opponent is a lower class team from, say, Macedonia or Latvia. I realize that Twente will be playing in a walking tempo, but even so, the Andoran team is probably at the level of a high-school Dutch team, so I am pretty sure the minimum score-line here is 5:0. And it can reach up to double digit, depending on Twente's mood. Unfortunately, most betting options are restricted before the game, and they will probably be open for live betting. I guess the handicaps will be very limited (maybe starting from Twente -4.5). I would personally take Twente -4.5 if it is priced at around 1.45-1.50 and I do think it could be value.

[Fedar]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

Renova vs AC Libertas Renova -1EH @ 1.28 (Bwin) 10/10 Asides from Twente vs Santa Coloma, this is the biggest mismatch of the round. Not that Renova are particularly good, this is a bet against the Sanmarinnese side. Teams from San Marino have a very poor record at this level, as anyone with an interest in the CL/EL qualifying rounds probably already knows! Out of their last 15 away games in Europe, teams from San Marino have lost 14 times, and 13 times they've lost by two clear goals. The time they avoided defeat was against an Andorran side, so can be discounted, and there was also a narrow 2-1 defeat to Valletta of Malta, but that was when Valletta were already 3-0 up from the away leg. Unfortunately, the bookies are aware of this record so the prices were not as good as I was expecting...not as good as in previous years. This 1.28 has been around a few days. I immediately thought it was too high, but wanted to wait for the Asian Handicaps. Unfortunately 365 are on top of things, offering -2.5 @ 1.5 which is marginal value if any, considering the Macedonian league is not the strongest. -2AH is 1.26 so you're obviously much better off going with Bwin. Whilst not a complete cert, I think this is very likely to come in, considering home advantage and the fact that Renova will want to kill off the game before the second leg. Whether or not it's a massive score depends on how early they score, as Libertas will no doubt look to put men behind the ball and get an unlikely 0-0. But with the difference in fitness, Renova being full-time and Libertas part-time, I think they should definitely cover the handicap here.

I know I might be repeating something I already stressed in the previous post, but I myself estimate the chance that -2AH becomes a losing bet in this game as less than 2-3%. I have to check again, but I think that San Marino teams have hardly ever avoided an away defeat with less than 3-4 goals, regardless of opponent, unless they play against the likes of Andorra and Lichtenstein. Macedonian league might not be an indicator for strength, but surely their teams are several levels above the San Marinese. Maybe it is worth mentioning that Renova is more like an Albanian team (the supporters and most of the players are Albanian). I've seen them two years ago in a friendly against my local CSKA Sofia - they are nothing special, but they are surely professionals, unlike those from San Marino.

[pg_yid]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

Taking this on' date=' had a think about it today and seems the most solid of the bets against the Welsh sides playing on Thursday..didn't get as good odds as you unfortunately, but I think the 1.44 ladbrokes are offering on the straight win won't be around by the end of tomorrow as its down everywhere else, and a few points on the -1.5AH at bwin at what is now 1.9.[/quote'] Agree, I've looked at the other games and as far as I know the prices are about right. Llanelli are away in Finland, the Finnish league is much stronger but the team is struggling in it and the price is 1.25-1.3. Bangor City have a tough tie at home to Zimbru. I think Zimbru are rightly favourites although Bangor could win it if they play to the best of their capacity. They were unlucky getting Zimbru as Bangor were seeded so could have had someone from San Marino or wherever but ended up with one of the better unseeded teams. Overs interests me for that game because 95% of Bangor's home games in the Welsh Premier League are over 2.5; they play long-ball football but still score and concede for fun, their attacking players are certainly their strength. Best price is 2.05. If anyone gets through out of the Welsh teams, my guess would be Bangor.

[Fedar]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

As far as I know Mura played reserve squad in that game. I personally wouldn't bet on us to win. Last season FC Baku had a really good squad and good coach' date=' but they were really poor when playing against top sides in our league.[/quote'] Mustafa, I keep a very close eye to this game, since the winner faces my CSKA Sofia next. Actually I am surprised that you say that Baku played poor. I checked that they have quite substantial budget for Eastern European standards (of course, not Russia and Ukraine included), and they have 5-6 internationals with very impressive CVs. Adding to this the unbearable heat in Baku, the boiling atmosphere at the stadium (I remember it from 2009 match Baku-Levski), and the traditionally very strong home performance of Caucasian sides, I see this game as a very easy home victory. My only reservation is that I know next to nothing about Mura, and I've noticed that Slovenian teams (as well as the national team) should not be underestimated.

[pg_yid]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

I know I might be repeating something I already stressed in the previous post' date=' but I myself estimate the chance that -2AH becomes a losing bet in this game as less than 2-3%. I have to check again, but I think that San Marino teams have hardly ever avoided an away defeat with less than 3-4 goals, regardless of opponent, unless they play against the likes of Andorra and Lichtenstein. Macedonian league might not be an indicator for strength, but surely their teams are several levels above the San Marinese. Maybe it is worth mentioning that Renova is more like an Albanian team (the supporters and most of the players are Albanian). I've seen them two years ago in a friendly against my local CSKA Sofia - they are nothing special, but they are surely professionals, unlike those from San Marino.[/quote'] There are two examples of losing by two goals against half-decent sides: Tampere United 2-0 Murata APOEL 3-1 Murata This is away from home, at home they have had much better results, but still defeats by and large. But I agree with the gist of your post and thanks for the info on Renova, as I know nothing about them which can't be learned by statistics.

[Fedar]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

There are two examples of losing by two goals against half-decent sides: Tampere United 2-0 Murata APOEL 3-1 Murata This is away from home, at home they have had much better results, but still defeats by and large. But I agree with the gist of your post and thanks for the info on Renova, as I know nothing about them which can't be learned by statistics.

Well, as I said I have to check it again. But it seems to me that these are second-leg games (probably after big defeats in the first)?! If it is so, then it changes the situation a lot, because it is usually the first game where these football midgets get the real humiliation, while in the second leg they might sometimes sneak a decent result. Anyway, it is still important to consider the opponent, and it is interesting to note that the pure class of the opponent is not so important (as every team is supposedly way better than those amateurs), but rather its approach and goal-scoring habits. If I go back to your examples, I must say that Finish and Cypriot teams, while maybe better than Renova (APOEL certainly is) are notorious for being extremely under-ish. If you bet on these two championships, you will notice the disproportionally large percentage of "unders". So, it is not so surprising that they might spare some goals against the midgets. In contrast, Eastern European teams tend to get nastier against this kind of opposition. For instance, today Gomel (Belarus) scored whole six away at Faroe Islands (which are way better than San Marino).

[Fedar]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July I know I seem to be over-spamming the topic, but since they are so many games in this round which supposedly could hide value, I am looking for input from people with more insider info. Besides the games discussed above, I've singled out two others which seem tempting: 1. Santa Coloma (Andorra) - Osiek Croatia Nothing much to say, another amateur Andorran side. It is interesting though, that the opponent is a Croatian team, and they have reputation of being very tough and not forgiving against such sides. It is currently priced 1.10 and the -1.5 AH is 1.35. While most experienced players might laugh at these prices, I think that sometimes value in the small numbers can be actually very substantial. Of course, since it would require a bigger stake, I would have to research it more closely tomorrow, but at first sight I see about 95% chance that Osiek covers the AH, and 1.35 clearly represents a smaller percentage, dedicated by bookies. 2. Saraevo - Hibernians. I have to remind that Maltese teams, although still amateurs and outsiders, are at least a level or two above those San Marino and Andorra. Still, I think the bookies have a little under-estimated the Bosnian side at 1.15 for a pure home win. Saraevo is one of the two most popular and strongest Bosnian teams. They have class, they have ambition to try to go to at least the play-off round, and they will have good support from the crowd. I don't expect crushing and humiliation here, but a classy and convenient 3:0 win should not be a problem for Saraevo.

[RocknRolla]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July Renova is in the top of Macedonian football for some years now and I believe they'll take the game against Libertas seriously and try to finish off the job in the 1st leg. They've had a great end to the domestic season which finished a month ago and surprisingly won the cup to secure European place. Its interesting that their opponents Libertas are the runners up of San Marino and Tre Penne are the champs. Tre Penne were humiliated 7-0 away at Dudelange in the qualification opener today so I really expect to see Renova easily outplaying second best team in San Marino. I'm pretty sure there is value in that -1 EH bet for Renova and I am tempted to go with higher stake at slightly better price locally but I hardly ever take a price below 1,50. My question is how would personally priced that ,what are your fair odds? What's your fair odds for Twente to keep a clean sheet? Im tempted with that as well. Thank you and good luck! I'll update the situation in Renova camp tomorrow.

[Fedar]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

Renova is in the top of Macedonian football for some years now and I believe they'll take the game against Libertas seriously and try to finish off the job in the 1st leg. They've had a great end to the domestic season which finished a month ago and surprisingly won the cup to secure European place. Its interesting that their opponents Libertas are the runners up of San Marino and Tre Penne are the champs. Tre Penne were humiliated 7-0 away at Dudelange in the qualification opener today so I really expect to see Renova easily outplaying second best team in San Marino. I'm pretty sure there is value in that -1 EH bet for Renova and I am tempted to go with higher stake at slightly better price locally but I hardly ever take a price below 1,50. My question is how would personally priced that ,what are your fair odds? What's your fair odds for Twente to keep a clean sheet? Im tempted with that as well. Thank you and good luck! I'll update the situation in Renova camp tomorrow.

I know I am turning into a little Brooke in this topic, but I am tempted to answer your questions. :) First, about Renova. Since I bet a lot on preliminary rounds of Europe League and CL, I have noticed that the bookies tend to do a little over-estimation of the odds for smallest teams. For example, these days I put bets on friendly games of top Belgian sides against third-division opponents, and I see that the odds there are slightly lower than those against weakest teams in Euro tournaments. If we assume that the bookies price those friendlies correctly, than they must surely over-estimate teams like Libertas, because: 1. I am confident that third-division Belgian sides are stronger than any San Marino team. 2. Those are friendlies, while Renova-Libertas is an official game. 3. Usually the Belgian friendlies are played at the venue of the low division team, while this game is in Macedonia. So, in brief, I think that the bookies have given a little of over-estimation to Libertas, maybe purely because it is Euro tournament. If it was a pre-season friendly between teams with such class gap, I feel that the odds for Renova would have been around 1.040-1.050. Second, about Twente's clean sheets. I do think this is a good bet. I say this with the remark that in the pre-Euro 2012 friendlies, a lot of people on these forum got hurt from such kinds of bets. However, this ain't friendly, and it is very likely that the guests will cross the center-line of the field just several times for the whole game. You can estimate yourself what chance of scoring against Twente this renders. However, I still think that I will rather go for total goals scored or asian handicap here, because it is still more secure bet. I just don't see how Twente won't score at least 4-5 goals, while it is still possible that the Andorrans sneak some accidental goal in the end, especially if the result already is terrifying. I've failed dramatically with bets in similar situation in the past - in games with extreme difference in class, I decided that there is more value in the clean-sheet for the favorite market, rather than the big Asian Handicap. In the end, it turned out that the favorite team scored 6-7 goals, and let a consolation goal in the last minutes for the opponents, which rendered my bet losing.

[Mustafa]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July

No all best players were playing in that game.In Murska Sobota(Mura) now is total chaos' date='few hours ago they went to Baku,in the morning when they have training they didnt knew who will go to the Baku so in Murska Sobota stays-Nino Kouter,Filip Drakovic and Ales Majer(problems with the documents)all of them play in the first squad...i am 100% that Baku will win,but in Murska Sobota will be different because they have very good atmosphere....Mustafa,could you tell me something if you know about Dacia Chinsinau(Moldova)?[/quote'] Sorry don't know anything about teams from Moldova.