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England v Italy > June 24


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Re: England v Italy > June 24 Hi all, In regards to the Balotelli card/sending off bet- If he starts then feel the 6/4 looks value for a card If he does start on the bench then the bet will be based on the last 20-30 mins as Di Natale rarely lasts more than 60-70 mins. For me the bet comes down to what the scoreline is come 70mins, any draw and the bet may be a disappointment because tempers will be under control and the mentality of the players can quite easily become conservative. If we (England) are winning by any scoreline then most of the Italians will be eager to close down the ball and put a foot in. If a card bet is to come in the De Rossi looks a banker @ 13/8 (paddy) (the guy has tat of him smashing an opponent on his calf!!! (Traffic warning style) Who said these Italians had taste!! lol) For me its a no goalscorer game but cover it by unders or 1-0 either way. I may have a trivial bet for extra interest but all I care about is ENGLAND!!!!!!! Come on lads!!!!!!

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Re: England v Italy > June 24

Will have one speculative bet here. EURO 1996 was the last time England managed to go further than quarterfinals in a major competition. EURO 1996 was also the last time England won on penalties when they beat Spain 4-2, after normal and extra time ended 0-0. Both teams have one of the best goalkeepers so it is hard for me to see this as a high scoring game and a draw looks very likely. Bookies price penalty shootout @ 5.50, meaning that they give it 18.18% chance. For me these teams are somewhat equal and if the match ends in a draw I am almost sure that this will go to penalties. So in my opinion penalty shout out has more than 18.18% chance of happening. Another point is that even though England haven't won a penalty shootout since 1996 and that they quite often struggle during after match penalties, they do have a quality goalkeeper now. Moreover, they have managed to beat Sweden, a team they were not able to beat in a competitive fixture and I don't see any reason why they can't beat another anti-record. However, Italy also has one of the top goalkeepers in the world and if this match goes on penalties it will be really interesting to watch. So, instead of backing either team to win on penalties I will take a safer approach. Match to go to penalties @ 5.50 ​William Hill
I'll follow you on this one. The odds on a draw are at about 3.00 (at bet365 for example it's even only 2.87 at the moment). And if the draw after 90 minutes is through, the 30 minutes extra time will be pretty cautios. I think, neither team wants to risk a deadly counter-attack there. Therefore 5.50 odds are HUGE in comparison to the 3.00.
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Re: England v Italy > June 24 4pts England to qualify 19/20 Bet365

This has tight written all over it. I fancy England to go through but I’m not wholly convinced it will be in the 90 minutes. While Italy have gone well in the tournament I do think England can breach their back line whereas England really do look good at the back bar the odd slip against Sweden. Full preview here:

http://www.punterslounge.com/england-vs-italy-betting--england-can-edge-out-the-italians-in-a-tight-quarter-final

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Re: England v Italy > June 24 Hi everyone (sorry for my orthograph :) ) For this match i feel an very very closed play ,both team gone stay on her zone and watching each other ,i think we gone have the first 0-0 of the competition ... So i have choose to take: all Method of Victory

on BET365

England in Extratime @ 13.00 30€ England on Penalties @ 10.00 30€ Italy in Extratime @ 13.00 30€ Italy on Penalties @ 10.00 30€

GL ALL

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Re: England v Italy > June 24 Yup, like most people I see this as being a tight game and backed both teams on penalties the other day, both 10/1 with Skybet: England to win on pens: 10 units Italy to win on pens: 10 units So, if it does go to pens I can sit back and wait for 90 units profit to be credited to my account! Further to that, I can see England sneaking a goal on the counter under Woy's tactics only for Italy to peg them back late on which is why I'm also going for: HT score: 0-0, FT score 1-1: 14/1 with Paddy. A bit speculative, I know, so a small stake.

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Re: England v Italy > June 24 England To Qualify @ 1.98 (Betfair) I actually fancy them to get it done in ninety, but this bet obviously allows for extra-time and the dreaded ''p'' word. So close, but I feel there's just the slightest bit more momentum with England. Whereas England are getting better, Italy haven't reached the heights of their first hour against Spain. Also wonder about Rooney. He's fresh, and with a decent first game under his belt, and goal, could be the difference.

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Re: England v Italy > June 24 A smart play would be under 2.5, but I'm going with over!! Italy have yet to have a game go over 2.5 goals, and England have had just 1 therefore I think this may be broken tonight. England have a great defence thats for sure, but Italy have a great attack and i'm sure they should be able to sneak atleast one in, not to mention 2. Italy also play with an open defence (3 defenders) so this may be exploited with the likes of Rooney so they should also manage to score atleast 1, or even 2. Unless this game ends 0-0 or 1-1 which is very likely i'm going with something different just for the fun it, Over 2.5 goals @ $2.65 with Centrebet 8/10 unites ;) 2-2 Draw @ 23 with Centrebet 0.5 unites.

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Re: England v Italy > June 24 The fact,that many people from England write in this forum,can explain the shocking bias towards England to qualify.England getting better ??? Come on, Ukraine missed at least 4 hundred percent chances to score,they had a goal wrongly disallowed and I can remember maximum two attack of Brits in the whole game, not to mention the lucky goal by Rooney.For me,terrible performance in that particular game. Furthermore, the two goals scored against Sweden for 3-2 were total fluke goals - Welbeck actually tried to stop the ball, but did it so badly, that thanks to mother Fortune, he scored. Theo Walcott can try 1000 times and he will never score that goal again. England are nothing special. 1/4 final for them is a really bug success. On other hand, Italians surprised by drawing against two fanstastic sides Croatia and Spain and showed some really good football at particular moments. Of course, Italy is not something terribly special,but they are really good at the knockout stage. IMO, at the moment Italians are the better team and therefore I am taking Italy to qualify @ 1.91 with Ladbrokes. Good luck to everyone!

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Re: England v Italy > June 24 Lets look at the facts. Italy 1 - 1 Spain (FIFA rank 1) Italy 1 - 0 Croatia (FIFA rank 8) Italy 2 - 0 Ireland (FIFA rank 18) In qualifying Italy played 10 , won 8 , draw 2 , lost 0 . For 20 , against 2 . England 1 - 1 France (FIFA rank 14) England 3 - 2 Sweden (FIFA rank 17) England 1 - 0 Ukraine (FIFA rank 52) In qualifying England played 8 , won 5, draw 3 , lost 0 . For 17 , against 5 . To get this far Italy qualified stronger than England , and played higher ranked teams in the Group stage to reach this Quarter Final. With Englands main striker Rooney showing definite signs of lack of match practise in his only game and there defense looking shaky - goals conceded in every game (Ukraines not being given) . I can see a comfortable Italian win , 2.94 betfair looks value and as the patriotic money pours on England today may even drift before kick off. I would much prefer to back Rooney 4.2 betfair to be carded than Balotelli 2.8 betfair , with a below peak fitness Rooney getting more frustrated as the game progresses.

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Re: England v Italy > June 24 Roy Keane suggests England have underestimated Italy, maybe the players haven't but certain sections of the media and some fans have. Nothing wrong with being patriotic and would like to see England make the semi-finals, but as there's money involved it needs more analysis. So during this tournament England have a better record, and in fact over the last thirty games...73% success rate compared to Italy's 60%. However discounting the friendlies and looking at the qualifying and Italy's performances look far more impressive, in fact they haven't lost a competitive game since Slovakia in World Cup 2010, undefeated in thirteen competitive games, and in those 13 they have conceded only four goals!:eek Over the same period England have conceded 8 goals in 11 games. Also I think it's fair to say that Spain & Croatia are stronger opponents than both the French and the Ukraine. H2H is pretty meaningless in this particular game I believe as both sides don't meet very often, even so for the record over the last 10 it reads 2-2-6 in Italy's favour. Overall agree worth most that this could well be a draw, although I make this 41.1% chance of Italy victory, and considering the prices on offer, this. Italy to win in extra-time @ 13 Bet 365 (special in-play free bet offer) Will see how the first 15 minutes pan out before placing the free bet but already looking at backing Italy in the 90 minutes, or the draw.

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Re: England v Italy > June 24 I can see this game being a drab affair, possibly the first 0-0 of the tournament. Both defences will be well organised and I think both teams will be toothless in attack. I see good value in back under 1.5 goals at 6/4. The only scoreline which worries me is a 1-1 draw as I cannot see either team getting 2 goals. Under 1.5 @ 2.5 - Skybet

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Re: England v Italy > June 24

Lets look at the facts...... Italy 1 - 0 Croatia (FIFA rank 8)
Yeah, this is no "fact". Game was 1-1. The only reason Italy qualified out of the groups was because they got to take advantage of an Irish team who had a) already given up, and b) been managed by a man who played to save face instead of using potential (e.g. James McClean) to try and win regardless of the result. Yes, Italy gave Spain a good game, but Spain haven't looked like the world-beaters we are used to thus far in this tournament. I'd go so far as to say that if (big IF with Germany in the way) we meet Spain in the final, then we would certainly give them a run for their money. Also Rooney getting carded is just wasted money IMO. He only got 1 yellow all season in 2011-12 EPL, and that was a terrible bit of refereeing too! He's just not that guy anymore. I'm of the opinion that 90-min win is showing value. I'll probably take 10 units on England/Italy @ 1.38 with Bet365. Or England to qualify @1.90 backed up by the in-play free bet offer running on Bet365. I am kinda free rolling on this game, though, since a 90 min England win brings in a 17/1 treble for me. Rooney to score 2 or more also looks tasty @15.00
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Re: England v Italy > June 24

The fact,that many people from England write in this forum,can explain the shocking bias towards England to qualify.England getting better ??? Come on, Ukraine missed at least 4 hundred percent chances to score,they had a goal wrongly disallowed and I can remember maximum two attack of Brits in the whole game, not to mention the lucky goal by Rooney.For me,terrible performance in that particular game. Furthermore, the two goals scored against Sweden for 3-2 were total fluke goals - Welbeck actually tried to stop the ball, but did it so badly, that thanks to mother Fortune, he scored. Theo Walcott can try 1000 times and he will never score that goal again. England are nothing special. 1/4 final for them is a really bug success. On other hand, Italians surprised by drawing against two fanstastic sides Croatia and Spain and showed some really good football at particular moments. Of course, Italy is not something terribly special,but they are really good at the knockout stage. IMO, at the moment Italians are the better team and therefore I am taking Italy to qualify @ 1.91 with Ladbrokes. Good luck to everyone!
Well, I'm English and I don't think I've read anything as biased as the above in anything anyone else has written on these pages! There has been some optimism seeping into the consciousness because we are finally playing to our strengths, rather than trying to beat technically better sides by playing football which has never worked well at all.. That being said I don't think we have suddenly become a good side in the last 3 games, none of which we have been convincing in. I think Italy will be very difficult to beat as we expect, and it will probably be a close game, I personally think betting decent sized amounts on Eng or It to win in ET or on pens is a highly dubious tactic and these bets should be side bets not main ones. Italy will have more possession as they are the better side, and have far better technical players. The market I'm mainly interested in is Italy's shots on target, looking at their stats from their games so far: Italy 1 Spain 1, shots on target Italy 6 Spain 9 Italy 1 Croatia 1, shots on target Italy 7 Croatia 8 Italy 2 Ireland 0, shots on target Italy 17 Ireland 2 Taking away the Ireland game, as everyone dominated them, to have 6 shots on target against Spain is impressive and 7 in the Croatia game (I would say England and Croatia are fairly evenly matched). How much can we read into these games? Well, both the Spain and Croatia games were tight as I think tonight will be, and they beat the handicap in both of those games. England are expected to be unchanged, which suits me as I would prefer England to show some ambition with 2 up front and leave the midfield not too congested. Balotelli and Cassano will more than likely start up front and I expect Balotelli will have a fair few shots on his own against Hart even if he has better options, just because he is a selfish player, which in this instance suits me fine. I think Italy will have more of the ball and had a look at the possession bet again but Italy over 54.5% is a bit too high for me, it will probably be around that but with two sides that play in much the same way it's difficult to know how much more possession Italy will have. I'm using my £50 bet365 bet on Italy to qualify and will probably do the same in-play as even if it doesn't come in I'm not bothered as long as England get through, I would happily give £50 for that! But I think Italy will go through.. Italy Over 5 Shots on Target - 10 Points - 1.83 - betvictor
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Re: England v Italy > June 24 Nothing seems of a value here since everything is possible and this reflects on the odds given by the books.So this is a match to watch only and just for the fun i tried to find something in the special bets.And i found it. I ll go for a tricky one here.I expect Welbeck to be brilliant tonight and to establish himshelf as a big attacking star after the end of this euro. So wih Rooney not so much in a form Danny is the next possible option(to me) England has to escape with something positive here. Danny Welbeck anytime scorer @ 4,33 (bet365) 1/10

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Re: England v Italy > June 24 Over 2.5 @ 2.78 ppinnacle Hodgson has been very defensive in his approach to this tournament and doubt much will change in this game as they look to hit the Italians on the counter. They face an Italian defence that drew 1-1 with both Spain and Croatia, and England is not better than either of these countries when going forward, as England under Hodgson have been very conservative in attack. However while the under looks more likely, both sides have scored in each of their 3 group games, with both teams only once keeping a clean sheet. There is enough quality in both sides to breach either defence, which have not really been as good as they may seem. The key for both sides is Gerrard and Pirlo who have been the standout players for each side and both have the ability to create and score goals. Italy have shown to be vulnerable down the flanks and expect England to use their pace there to get in behind them, with the aid of Cole and Johnson supporting them. Italy on the other hand will look to supply balls to Cassano and Balotelli as quickly as possible to get them to go one-on-one with their defenders before the midfield has time to support them. Like both sides to score here, and like the look of a third goal as both sides can score again here.

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Re: England v Italy > June 24 Bookings Italy are averaging 30 booking points per game against England’s 16.7 average booking points per game So over 60 booking points @ odds of 2.5 with Bluesq initially seems poor value BUT: An Interesting stat is that the Italians on average suffer 17.7 fouls per game which is the highest average suffered fouls by any team in the Euros - Have the Italians really been that good with trickery and attacking intent that they are getting the opposition to make all these 'nasty' fouls against them? Definitely no, so why are they winning this award so far? They clearly know how to make the referee 110% aware of the apparent 'nasty' treatment they get from opposition players. They won’t let the referee miss anything that’s for sure. Play acting will be included as default in the Italy V England game. A bit of digging shows that the opposition teams to the Italians in their last 3 games have managed to total up 95 booking points between them - averaging 31.7 booking points per game. So: the Italians average 30 booking points per game combined with their opposition’s average of 31.7 booking points per game - totals 61.67 average points per game. (On last 3 games figures) Add in the tense nature of the game & Super Mario & over 60 points looks tasty Ref Watch: As a typical Portuguese referee, Proenca is very strict and not concerned about letting the game flow. If he feels his authority is being questioned, he will start to brandish yellow cards. Players will need to be very careful around him, otherwise they will risk going for an early bath. He is 'only' averaging 40 points per game so far in the Euros but combined with the above I can see a few more tonight. Last season stats for Mr Proenca Games 31 / Yellow Cards 189 / Red Cards 14. Quite Impressive!! Over 60 booking points @ odds of 2.5 with bluesq Enjoy the game.

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Re: England v Italy > June 24

Yeah, this is no "fact". Game was 1-1. The only reason Italy qualified out of the groups was because they got to take advantage of an Irish team who had a) already given up, and b) been managed by a man who played to save face instead of using potential (e.g. James McClean) to try and win regardless of the result. Yes, Italy gave Spain a good game, but Spain haven't looked like the world-beaters we are used to thus far in this tournament. I'd go so far as to say that if (big IF with Germany in the way) we meet Spain in the final, then we would certainly give them a run for their money. Also Rooney getting carded is just wasted money IMO. He only got 1 yellow all season in 2011-12 EPL, and that was a terrible bit of refereeing too! He's just not that guy anymore. I'm of the opinion that 90-min win is showing value. I'll probably take 10 units on England/Italy @ 1.38 with Bet365. Or England to qualify @1.90 backed up by the in-play free bet offer running on Bet365. I am kinda free rolling on this game, though, since a 90 min England win brings in a 17/1 treble for me. Rooney to score 2 or more also looks tasty @15.00
Apologies regarding Italy v Croatia scoreline. 1 - 1 is the correct score. Regarding Rooney and cards 2011/12 , he was yellow carded once in the premiership , yellow and red cards in Euro 12 qualifying matches and yellow carded in the champions league , further evidence that when the going gets tough Rooney gets carded !
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Re: England v Italy > June 24

Well, I'm English and I don't think I've read anything as biased as the above in anything anyone else has written on these pages! There has been some optimism seeping into the consciousness because we are finally playing to our strengths, rather than trying to beat technically better sides by playing football which has never worked well at all.. That being said I don't think we have suddenly become a good side in the last 3 games, none of which we have been convincing in. I think Italy will be very difficult to beat as we expect, and it will probably be a close game, I personally think betting decent sized amounts on Eng or It to win in ET or on pens is a highly dubious tactic and these bets should be side bets not main ones. Italy will have more possession as they are the better side, and have far better technical players. The market I'm mainly interested in is Italy's shots on target, looking at their stats from their games so far: Italy 1 Spain 1, shots on target Italy 6 Spain 9 Italy 1 Croatia 1, shots on target Italy 7 Croatia 8 Italy 2 Ireland 0, shots on target Italy 17 Ireland 2 Taking away the Ireland game, as everyone dominated them, to have 6 shots on target against Spain is impressive and 7 in the Croatia game (I would say England and Croatia are fairly evenly matched). How much can we read into these games? Well, both the Spain and Croatia games were tight as I think tonight will be, and they beat the handicap in both of those games. England are expected to be unchanged, which suits me as I would prefer England to show some ambition with 2 up front and leave the midfield not too congested. Balotelli and Cassano will more than likely start up front and I expect Balotelli will have a fair few shots on his own against Hart even if he has better options, just because he is a selfish player, which in this instance suits me fine. I think Italy will have more of the ball and had a look at the possession bet again but Italy over 54.5% is a bit too high for me, it will probably be around that but with two sides that play in much the same way it's difficult to know how much more possession Italy will have. I'm using my £50 bet365 bet on Italy to qualify and will probably do the same in-play as even if it doesn't come in I'm not bothered as long as England get through, I would happily give £50 for that! But I think Italy will go through.. Italy Over 5 Shots on Target - 10 Points - 1.83 - betvictor
Another good value bet found Hastgills. Thanks for your work. The only problem is that I'm banned by BV (and tbh with alll the bets you're finding at this bookie I am surprised you're not...) so do you know if anyone else offers shots on target market?
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Re: England v Italy > June 24

Another good value bet found Hastgills. Thanks for your work. The only problem is that I'm banned by BV (and tbh with alll the bets you're finding at this bookie I am surprised you're not...) so do you know if anyone else offers shots on target market?
I was :lol..signed up with a different e-mail address and different debit card and not had any problems since.. Other people might know different sites, unibet have Italy over 5.5 shots on target at 1.5 which isn't really worth it I don't think. I'm surprised bet365 don't offer something in this line but I can't see anything..
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Re: England v Italy > June 24 Goal line: Over 2 @ 2.075 bet365 Everyone is expecting a low scoring game here and I can understand why. As such the Goal line has been set at 2 which is the right line. I think there is a good chance of seeing 2 goals in the match though which would at least see the stake returned on this one. England are setting up fairly defensively but not exactly parking the bus. There has been some good defensive work with Parker holding well, Terry and Lescott getting the blocks and tackles in along with 2 top players in Hart and Cole. But for all that I think England have looked vulnerable at times. They conceded 2 against a poor Swedish side and 1 against France who failed to live up to there hype. The clean sheet against Ukraine was hardly convincing and it's only their lack of a decent striker which saw them draw a blank. Italy aren't big scorers but I think they will at least get on the score sheet tonight as they did do in each of their group games which included a goal against Spain. England aren't. BIg scorers either but we did manage to find the net in each grop game as well including 3 against Sweden. Italy have an excellent defence and will be tough to break down but England have the pace to get behind them. Hodgson also has some good options from the bench which will be crucial if England find themselves behind. Throw in some opportunities off set pieces and I think there's a decent chance England can get on the score sheet. The 2 goal line is right but at the price I like the chances more of it sneaking over than sneaking under. If there is 2 goals I get my money back but will still have qualified for the in play match bet that 365 are generously offering to those lucky enough. With the free match bet I will be putting into on England to qualify. I wouldn't put my own money on this and am probably being swayed by my heart rather than head but this really is a 50/50 call in my book and I would rather be cheering on England to win than tainting it with an alternative interest on Italy. It's a no lose bet so I happy to side with England.

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Re: England v Italy > June 24 England vs Italy This game is obviously going to be a tight encounter. I would expect very even odds and an increased range for a draw, mass domination for the unders range. Looking at the odds that is exactly what I see. Finding value in games such as these are not easy, and any value will be tight indeed. So, coming back towards mug instincts, I asked myself who is more likely to win this match? After minor thought I thought England might be the underdogs odds wise but might be the slight favourites in reality. England odds have just started to drift ever so slightly to knock the favouritism to the Italians. That would suggest from a weak argument that there is value on England, purely based on England. Italy have done more than what most would have expected. Getting out of the group as runners up to Spain was more than acceptable, and some of their performances in the group stages were good too. They are quite an consistent side but still lacks cutting edge, new talent and quality. England similarly had low expectations going into this tournament. Two wins and a draw from their group stage matches to see them win the group ahead of the French who ultimately paid the punishment getting knocked out by Spain. I really don't think there is much else to it apart from the minor value on England. I cannot present a stronger argument for as said before for the tightness of the value. The draw I am aware is widened, but the odds have followed suit and I think I'm going to go for a minor gamble and take the riskier punt at higher odds. 24/6/12 UEC England vs Italy England 2.960 Pinnacle 4/10 OPEN

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Re: England v Italy > June 24 Tempted to dutch 0-0 and 1-1 correct scorelines. So hard to pick a winner, i feel this one is destined to go the whole distance and with neither side looking like scoring much in the group stages i think we will see more of the same

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Re: England v Italy > June 24 Why are people still going on suggesting the Ukraine had a goal wrongly disallowed? Tne player was 2 yards offside for christ's sake! Anyways, i hope Italy win tonight, but i can see England having the upper hand. Gerrard is playing great stuff, the Italian's are poor in midfield, that is where the battle will be won imo.

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Re: England v Italy > June 24

The punters definitely do think its destined to go all the way. The bookies are happy to oblige offering all kinds of money back specials if it does. I think an Italy win in 90 mins would be a fantastic results for the bookies and I'm going to join them in cheering this result by backing it.
If i had to back either side to win in 90mins i would side with Italy. I cant see England holding onto a lead, All 3 group games we went ahead and then either conceded or looked like conceding. Exactly the same happened to Italy against Spain and Croatia and i dont see why it will be any different tonight :hope
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Re: England v Italy > June 24 A lot of Englishmen (myself included) on here and may be being slightly biased but its ironic that those you arent are then extremely biased towards Italy I cant wait for tonights game and will backing England all the way, for me tho it will be a low scoring game, a few people have mentioned because both teams seem defensive it will be irony that there will be a few goals, for me personally I cant see that happening I think although we are being over hyped slightly, thats no difference to Italy, granted they drew with Spain, but they themselves havent looked amazing, they only just beat Croatia who hit the woodwork and had a number of chances to grab a goal, and lets face it anyway can look amazing against Ireland, no disrespect intended For me it is going all the way to penalties and with Joe Hart in goal I seriously believe we can go through, separating my heart from my head for a minute I have also gone with a bet on first goalscorer being after HT, I have gone with Rooney and with those odds being at 20/1 its just a case of who will score rather than when, I just hope its him who nets first, seeing as he has the shortest odds as well it may be worth value having the same bet but with gerrard, balotelli, cassano or someone else, I can easily see this being a stale mate up to HT Good luck to everyone and lets hope for a good game

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Re: England v Italy > June 24 OOOH!! Today's Bettingzone Market News: 1540: It looks like the gamble on tonight's Euro 2012 quarter-final has begun - and it's Italy the money is going on. They've been cut by several firms this afternoon, with England pushed out to a best of 21/10 by BetVictor and Blue Square. Italy are 15/8 having been offered at 19/10 earlier. William Hill are among those to trim their price after taking a 33,000-euro single on the Italians. The draw is a best of 2/1. It's a similar tale in the 'to qualify' market with Italy into a best of 10/11 and England drifting to evens with bodog. ============= Will there be a slight tumble in the odds between now and kick-off as 'patriotic money' comes in for England or will there be even more money coming in for Italy!? I'm still not having a bet on it but COME ON, ENGLAND!! :cow

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