Npower Football League Two Playoff Semi Finals 2nd Leg > 16th / 17th May

[Jase82]

[TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Wednesday 16 May 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Southend United v Crewe Alexandra (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.95 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.75 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.12 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Thursday 17 May 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Torquay United v Cheltenham Town (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.11 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.8 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.49 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[allthethings]

Re: Npower Football League Two Playoff Semi Finals 2nd Leg > 16th / 17th May Crewe are currently 4.58 to win...and of course they don't need to win to advance, just draw. 3.68 for the draw looks pretty decent, but I'll be waiting to see what the odds do. On the season, Southend were 9-5-3 at home against dogs of 4.00 or better. In a similar 4.5 to 4.99 range, they lost to Rotherham and drew against Morecambe and Accrington...against even bigger dogs, they managed to drop points with draws against Bristol Rovers and Dag&Red, and lost to Bradford. 6-4-2 at home against dogs of better than 4.5, in all. Crewe went 5-2-5 as a dog away of better than 4.0. In the 4.5-4.99 range, they won all three, at Cheltenham, Morecambe and Oxford, and they drew at Crawley as an even bigger underdog (in total, 3-1-1 as an away dog of better than 4.5). H2h, Southend at home beat Crewe 1-0 in February...that was the lone loss in the upper range (Crewe were a 5.2 dog). Crewe lead 1-0 after the first leg. As with Stevenage yesterday, I think if you're going to back the underdog, back the draw.

[Jase82]

Re: Npower Football League Two Playoff Semi Finals 2nd Leg > 16th / 17th May I think the ratio of 5-2-5 at those odds just demonstrates Crewe's style of play. They have more of an open style of play, so it will be interesting to see how they approach this two legged affair, being a goal up. I can't see them keeping Southend out, which is why the overs appeal to me @ 2.1.

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Npower Football League Two Playoff Semi Finals 2nd Leg > 16th / 17th May My advice is to Lay Southend (Not To Win). I saw the first leg, they were ****e and lucky not to come away with a heavier loss. Their defensive calamaties were numerous in the second half, Crewe were overwhelmingly the better team and looked well capable of progressing to the final.

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Npower Football League Two Playoff Semi Finals 2nd Leg > 16th / 17th May Further to the above, first of all thoughts from the first leg. On reflection Southend were even more pathetic than I origially remembered. I'd forgotten about this piece of crap playing for them who is actually their top scorer with 13 goals, Bilel Moshni. This pathetic excuse for a professional footballer spent more time diving and arguing with the referee, than he did doing anything useful whatsoever. Here he is at his best in the game :

I suppose if your stadium is built on a landfill site, as Root's Hall is, construction having started in 1952, then adding more rubbish to it would seem only natural. What amazes me more about this French-Tunisian individual is this alarming statistic : On 31 January 2011, Southend rejected a bid of £250,000 from Blackpool for Mohsni. What could Ian Holloway have possibly seen in this muppet ? Before anyone bangs on about Southends recent home form, take a hard look at it : 2-0 Macclesfield, relegated rubbish 3-0 Barnet, the next best thing to relegated rubbish 2-0 Wimbledon, dire form bottom half of table, lost 5 of a block of 6 games 4-0 Cheltenham, dire form at the time failing to score in 5 consecutive games, this being the 5th Impressed by any of those victories ? You shouldn't be. Not one single "tough" opponent there based on at-the-time form. Prior to those 4 they lost 0-1 to Aldershot. If you take a look at the whole seasons results, almost every win is against bottom half rubbish. Ironically the last team to beat Crewe were Southend, following that Crewe have gone 17 unbeaten home or away. At the time of that match Crewe were midtable. Crewe have only kept one clean sheet Away since then, at Hereford, so I think it's fair to assume they'll concede one in this second leg but I can not imagine them losing this game in 90 mins. Head to head in the 9 games I found between them, there has not been a Draw in any of them so it's about time one came along. 5 of Crewe's last 7 Aways have been Score Draws, 4 have been 1-1 and that is the result in 90 minutes that I feel is the most likely. My tip is to Lay Southend (Not To Win), Betfair Odds 1.94 Edit : See my follow up posting, Odds have changed so there's now better value on Crewe To Qualify [TABLE=class: table_content] [TR=class: table_content_row row_light] [TD=class: table_content_td_left headtohead_datetd] 12/05/2012 [/TD] [TD] League Two Playoffs [/TD] [TD=class: headtohead_matchtd] Crewe vs. Southend [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right headtohead_resulttd] 1:0 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_dark] [TD=class: table_content_td_left headtohead_datetd] 18/02/2012 [/TD] [TD] League Two [/TD] [TD=class: headtohead_matchtd] Southend vs. Crewe [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right headtohead_resulttd] 1:0 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_light] [TD=class: table_content_td_left headtohead_datetd] 08/10/2011 [/TD] [TD] League Two [/TD] [TD=class: headtohead_matchtd] Crewe vs. Southend [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right headtohead_resulttd] 1:3 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_dark] [TD=class: table_content_td_left headtohead_datetd] 15/03/2011 [/TD] [TD] League Two [/TD] [TD=class: headtohead_matchtd] Crewe vs. Southend [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right headtohead_resulttd] 1:0 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_light] [TD=class: table_content_td_left headtohead_datetd] 16/10/2010 [/TD] [TD] League Two [/TD] [TD=class: headtohead_matchtd] Southend vs. Crewe [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right headtohead_resulttd] 0:2 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_dark] [TD=class: table_content_td_left headtohead_datetd] 17/02/2009 [/TD] [TD] League One [/TD] [TD=class: headtohead_matchtd] Southend vs. Crewe [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right headtohead_resulttd] 0:1 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_light] [TD=class: table_content_td_left headtohead_datetd] 20/09/2008 [/TD] [TD] League One [/TD] [TD=class: headtohead_matchtd] Crewe vs. Southend [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right headtohead_resulttd] 3:4 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_dark] [TD=class: table_content_td_left headtohead_datetd] 05/04/2008 [/TD] [TD] League One [/TD] [TD=class: headtohead_matchtd] Crewe vs. Southend [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right headtohead_resulttd] 1:3 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_light] [TD=class: table_content_td_bottomleft headtohead_datetd] 13/10/2007 [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_bottom] League One [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_bottom headtohead_matchtd] Southend vs. Crewe [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_bottomright headtohead_resulttd] 3:0 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[HastGill1]

Re: Npower Football League Two Playoff Semi Finals 2nd Leg > 16th / 17th May Interesting stuff NA, enjoy reading your previews and guidance and strategies on backing and laying, something I'm going to be looking at more in the coming season. I should really contribute more to the league two threads. I agree with your analysis for what its worth, in the first leg Crewe were by far the better side and really by far the most impressive of the 4 play off sides, for me anyway. For all their good passing though they only managed the one goal and it was somewhat surprising it came through a set piece. Dario Gradi isn't in charge anymore but the side has his fingerprints all over it, Southend didn't impress that much during the first leg nor their game a couple of months ago at Priestfield but their home record is decent and I can see both teams scoring in this one. With Crewe's slick passing and pace on the break I think they will find the net at least once.

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Npower Football League Two Playoff Semi Finals 2nd Leg > 16th / 17th May Thanks HG for the positive comments. Looking at the Odds again for the Southend Lay (Not To Win In 90 Mins), theyve now increased overnight to over Evens. With that in mind I now recommend : Crewe To Qualify (TQ), Odds on Betfair now 1.75 Whilst I still expect Crewe to be on their way to Wembley in 90, the TQ allows for extra time and pens as some safety and it's not as if the potential profit is vastly different. As Crewe are already leading 1-0 on the TQ before a balls been kicked tonight, if they were to score the first goal, the Odds for Southend TQ would likely trade high enough to be able to place a cover bet on. Example : S'end are 2.32 TQ at the moment, let's assume the game starts off cautiously and there's no goal in the first half hour, remember the last time S'end did play anyone at home in at least reasonable form, they didn't score anyhow, and that was 5 games ago. If Crewe were to score around the half hour mark I would envisage the Odds on S'end TQ would rise to at least double what they started at and with a third of the game played already that reduces the chances considerably, so Odds likely to hit 6.0 minimum. So, let's say you used a stake of £25 @ Odds of 1.75 Crewe TQ = Potential Profit £17.80 after 5% commission deducted (Betfair) Crewe score first and you think Southend now have no hope TQ, Odds for them are 6.0 but you wanna protect yourself just in case, so you put £5 on S'end TQ to win your £25 stake back should the unthinkable happen. Now the reason I've explained it this way is because there is a chance that once this game goes in play, the Betfair market might be so underactive for the TQ bets area that you might need to use another site to get your cover on at sensible odds, such as Bet 365. I think trying to get a TQ Lay bet on Crewe if they took the lead might present a few probs on Betfair. If Crewe went 1-0 up tonight in say the 60th minute, the Odds for S'end TQ would probably hit 10.0 upwards, that means your cover stake would only need to be around £2.75 on those Odds. Another option, and you can look at this yourselves because I can't do all the work for you ! have a look to see what the Odds are for Southend to score 2 or more goals in 90 mins. Keep an eye on that In Play, if you run the Crewe TQ and Crewe take the lead, you might get Odds of 6.0 upwards for S'end to score 2 or more, which would be a fantastic bet with potential for two wins it Crewe took the lead, and at 90 mins it was for example 2-2 or 2-3, or Crewe Q'ed in Extra Time or Pens after S'end had scored 2 in 90 mins. How about saying it's still 0-0 at 80 mins, what could you do ? Southend will be getting desperate now so let's back them to score, but NOT the next goal because if Crewe score first Southend might still get one. So just put a bet on for Southend to score, might be as high as 5.0 or 6.0 now, that way if they score and it finishes 90 mins Southend 1-0 but they don't qulaify, again you got two wins. How about Both Teams To Score if it's still 0-0 around 60 to 70 mins. Odds might be around 5.0 upwards, put enough on cover your original Crewe TQ stake, then if it finishes 1-1 as I predict you got two wins there. From the above series of examples it's clear that as long as Southend don't score the first goal, it's going to be hard to lose any Crewe To Qualify bet, unless Crewe take the lead and Southend score within moments of the restart, and they did not look capable of doing so, or Crewe capable of letting them do so, from the evidence of the first leg. There's a lot of scope with a game such as this, but you're going to need to analise it thoroughly, if you've only got 5 mins then forget anything complex as you're more likely to mess it up, something like this will take half an hours planning if you're thinking of a big stake/s. Having said all of the above purely as examples only, I still think 1-1 at 90 mins will be the outcome in this one, but those of you who know me well enough on here will remember I don't encourage betting Under/Over the 2.5 line, strictly Under 3.5 for me whose odds are @ 1.36 Betfair as I look. Finally as I said elsewhere yesterday, I've finished for the UK season so even tho I've spent a lot of time tipping this I'm not actually betting it. I still enjoy doing it so let's see how I fair, Martin

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Npower Football League Two Playoff Semi Finals 2nd Leg > 16th / 17th May

Thanks HG for the positive comments. Looking at the Odds again for the Southend Lay (Not To Win In 90 Mins), theyve now increased overnight to over Evens. With that in mind I now recommend : Crewe To Qualify (TQ), Odds on Betfair now 1.75 Whilst I still expect Crewe to be on their way to Wembley in 90, the TQ allows for extra time and pens as some safety and it's not as if the potential profit is vastly different. As Crewe are already leading 1-0 on the TQ before a balls been kicked tonight, if they were to score the first goal, the Odds for Southend TQ would likely trade high enough to be able to place a cover bet on. Example : S'end are 2.32 TQ at the moment, let's assume the game starts off cautiously and there's no goal in the first half hour, remember the last time S'end did play anyone at home in at least reasonable form, they didn't score anyhow, and that was 5 games ago. If Crewe were to score around the half hour mark I would envisage the Odds on S'end TQ would rise to at least double what they started at and with a third of the game played already that reduces the chances considerably, so Odds likely to hit 6.0 minimum. So, let's say you used a stake of £25 @ Odds of 1.75 Crewe TQ = Potential Profit £17.80 after 5% commission deducted (Betfair) Crewe score first and you think Southend now have no hope TQ, Odds for them are 6.0 but you wanna protect yourself just in case, so you put £5 on S'end TQ to win your £25 stake back should the unthinkable happen. Now the reason I've explained it this way is because there is a chance that once this game goes in play, the Betfair market might be so underactive for the TQ bets area that you might need to use another site to get your cover on at sensible odds, such as Bet 365. I think trying to get a TQ Lay bet on Crewe if they took the lead might present a few probs on Betfair. Another option, and you can look at this yourselves because I can't do all the work for you ! have a look to see what the Odds are for Southend to score 2 or more goals in 90 mins. Keep an eye on that In Play, if you run the Crewe TQ and Crewe take the lead, you might get Odds of 6.0 upwards for S'end to score 2 or more, which would be a fantastic bet with potential for two wins it Crewe took the lead, and at 90 mins it was for example 2-2 or 2-3, or Crewe Q'ed in Extra Time or Pens after S'end had scored 2 in 90 mins. Head to head in the 9 games I found between them, there has not been a Draw in any of them so it's about time one came along.

Watched in my local bookies, Southend were appalling yet again, it's a mystery they got this far. It was only when Harris came on did they ever look like scoring and even then their first was from a goalkeeping calamity. Did anyone follow my above suggestions ?

[mowgli77]

Re: Npower Football League Two Playoff Semi Finals 2nd Leg > 16th / 17th May

Watched in my local bookies' date=' Southend were appalling yet again, it's a mystery they got this far. It was only when Harris came on did they ever look like scoring and even then their first was from a goalkeeping calamity. Did anyone follow my above suggestions ?[/quote'] Didn't bother watching all the game but your analysis was absolutely spot on so hope someone did follow you with these. I saw it at 1-0 until about 60 mins and then turned over, can't believe it ended 2-2. I'm liking the look of my Cheltenham to win the play offs bet, hope they can see off Torquay tomorrow and then see off Crewe in the final. Well done with tonights preview, top stuff.

[maliniok]

Re: Npower Football League Two Playoff Semi Finals 2nd Leg > 16th / 17th May Didn't follow you NA as I had planned not to bet on this game but well done on your preview. Top stuff.

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Npower Football League Two Playoff Semi Finals 2nd Leg > 16th / 17th May http://www.usagoals.com/live/121820-torquay-united-vs-cheltenham-town-/watch/stream/online/free/feed/p2p/en/vivo/tv/gratis/

[AHughes]

Re: Npower Football League Two Playoff Semi Finals 2nd Leg > 16th / 17th May Posted this in the 1st leg thread earlier without realising. NOT AFTERTIMING Just really cannot see Torquay winning tonight. They were outclassed by Cheltenham's pace and counter attacking movement in the 1st game and they will be hit on the break a lot tonight. Torquay's top goalscorer Rene Howe went off injured in the 1st leg and will miss this crucial game for them. Torquay have also went out of form at the complete wrong time, they have not won in 6 games. Cheltenham +0.5 - 19/20 BetVictor

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Npower Football League Two Playoff Semi Finals 2nd Leg > 16th / 17th May Appalling standard of football in tonights match, Torquay are crap, who'd wanna watch that week in week out ? I'd go as far as saying they made Southend look reasonable. Endless long ball tosh with rarely a yellow shirt collecting, and did you notice how few tackles there were in the game ? There didnt need to be many as each team seemed obsessed with humping it back to the other one. Truly abyssmal entertainment, I use the word loosely. Yet another play off U 3.5. I see a Crewe win in the final, they are the only one of the 4 teams that have looked decent, and no coincidence are the form team by some distance. 18 unbeaten.

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Npower Football League Two Playoff Semi Finals 2nd Leg > 16th / 17th May

Cheltenham +0.5 - 19/20 BetVictor Torquay have also went out of form at the complete wrong time, they have not won in 6 games.

And never looked likely to tonight. Nice win there Al, pretty comforatble for you as well, those odds look great considering even the draw w/have been a winner. Wasn't betting the game myself.

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Npower Football League Two Playoff Semi Finals 2nd Leg > 16th / 17th May

Appalling standard of football in tonights match' date=' Torquay are crap, who'd wanna watch that week in week out ? Endless long ball tosh[/quote'] It seems they like a bit of consistency at Torquay, so in order not to disappoint their home fans, guess who are the visitors for the friendly match to mark the opneing of their new stand ? Stoke City. Enough said.

[maliniok]

Re: Npower Football League Two Playoff Semi Finals 2nd Leg > 16th / 17th May NA - i think you're talking sense about Crewe in the final. The interesting fact that last two L2 PO winners - dag &red and Stevenage finished 7th in the table like Crewe.