Spain v Italy > June 10

[Sir Puntalot]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Spain v Italy (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.86[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.25[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.59 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[arxidi]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10 Am I the only person who thinks backing Italy is worth it? Italy usually compete well against big teams, and struggle against lower teams so whether Italy can give Spain a run for their money is out of the point. Italy coach mentioned that a win against Spain is vital as they fear Croatia more than what they do of Spain. Spain have lost Puyol, and most likely Villa but that shouldn't make much of a differnece. I don't think Spain will do as good as expected these Euros - They've had their glory and now I think its time for those younger squads (Germany, Holland, Italy, France) to compete.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10 It isn't crazy. Italy traditionally give Spain problems and their style of play really give the Spaniards fits. Look back to the last Euros where Spain held much of the possession but it was Italy who created the more dangerous chances. We see it in Europe as well where Spanish teams struggle to break down Italian teams or teams that play a similar game (i.e. Chelsea, Liverpool of the past). I am not sure about winning but I think the Italians will get something out of this. Italy shouldn't be underestimated, their backline consists mostly of Juventus' Scudeto winning backline including Buffon, which conceded 20 goals in 38 matches. They're stingy and a cohesive unit. Italy +0.5 @2.05 (8/10) Italy AH (0) @3.55 (4/10) with bet365

[Mustafa]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10

Italy shouldn't be underestimated' date=' their backline consists mostly of Juventus' Scudeto winning backline including Buffon, which conceded 20 goals in 38 matches. They're stingy and a cohesive unit.[/quote'] Good point and I wanted to back Under 2.5 Goals, but bookies are not that stupid and unders are already priced @ 1.50-1.57. Guess if most people (including myself) will be leaning towards a low scoring game "Time of Goal" markets might be a good option. Probably something like First goal after 31st minute @ 2.00, or after 46th minute @ 3.20.

[Luigi84]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10

Good point and I wanted to back Under 2.5 Goals, but bookies are not that stupid and unders are already priced @ 1.50-1.57. Guess if most people (including myself) will be leaning towards a low scoring game "Time of Goal" markets might be a good option. Probably something like First goal after 31st minute @ 2.00, or after 46th minute @ 3.20.

Nice option those of the First goal after 31st @ 3.2, but then I like very much also Pinnacle's offer on the U0.75 HT @ 2.16... seems even rather protective, not to forget the many trading possibilities you can have in live after about 30 minutes... On the other hand, let's keep an eye on the troubles that Italian squad is passing, Ranocchia is out (Astori on his place) and maybe De Rossi will have to play as a central defender... Surely he already covered this role in the past, but nevertheless it is not his natural one. I believe that because these troubles maybe the price for Italy will grow up a bit more in next days, and I am wondering to take Italy +0.75... we will see, even if Italian I never had too much pleasure in backing my national team, but this time the price maybe hides a value...

[Mustafa]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10

Nice option those of the First goal after 31st @ 3.2, but then I like very much also Pinnacle's offer on the U0.75 HT @ 2.16... seems even rather protective, not to forget the many trading possibilities you can have in live after about 30 minutes... On the other hand, let's keep an eye on the troubles that Italian squad is passing, Ranocchia is out (Astori on his place) and maybe De Rossi will have to play as a central defender... Surely he already covered this role in the past, but nevertheless it is not his natural one. I believe that because these troubles maybe the price for Italy will grow up a bit more in next days, and I am wondering to take Italy +0.75... we will see, even if Italian I never had too much pleasure in backing my national team, but this time the price maybe hides a value...

I think it is no longer a good bet since Chielini and Barzagli, two main central defenders will miss the EURO due to injury, so goals look very likely in this one.

[Luigi84]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10

I think it is no longer a good bet since Chielini and Barzagli' date=' two main central defenders will miss the EURO due to injury, so goals look very likely in this one.[/quote'] Hi Mustafa, these are sure part of the problems Italy is having... but I have a feeling this game in someways can be compared to Barca - Chelsea and the 3/4 ball spread... Still we have not really many solid statistical datas on how national teams can actually perform under pressure as we can have the datas for club teams, the big question is: is there a 3/4 ball spread between Spain and Italy? Italian ill defense vs Llorente and Torres? I think survival instinct of Italy can come out, expecially vs a bit victories satiated Spain, but gotta see if the price is worth backing it... we will see what will happen in the prices in next days. For now let's keep the money in the wallet, at least for me. All the best!

[Rob the I ty]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10

I think it is no longer a good bet since Chielini and Barzagli' date=' two main central defenders will miss the EURO due to injury, so goals look very likely in this one.[/quote'] Barazagli is out for 3 weeks or so. But I haven't heard that about Chiellini he should be fit for the Spain match after sustaining a thigh injury in the Serie A finale vs Atalanta.

[Mustafa]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10 Spain play attacking football and have scored 26 goals in the qualifiers and 7 out of their 8 qualifying games produced 3 or more goals. Even though Italians are known for their quality defense some of their ket defenders, namely Giorgio Chiellini and Andrea Barzagli, may miss the game. Spain will also be without one of their key players Carles Puyol. So, I think this game will not be a boring one and I can see goals here. Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.37 William Hill

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10 Question is how will italy play? Sit back deep or try their luck with some offensive? Their defense is scattered. No way they can play effective defense with these changes. They looked AWFULL defensivly against russia. De rossi at the back is good chocie but he will be missed in midfield much more! Im totally sure that spain will find some holes and then its about buffon! The italy offense is not in a very good goalscoring form. This might end 2:0. Spain is relaxed and they will play their game while italy looks all over the place. One year ago they looked stable and good. Today they are broken and they lack a real superstar who delivers every game and si able to decide a game. Spain is versatile and can react with different players to different situations. They miss villa and puyol but they can be replaced. I see a clear Spain win and backing italy even on ahc seems not wise. How do you guys get your confidence from about italy? Odds are maybe great..but spain doesnt look weak at all. I think saying that some of them are not hungry anymore is not true.

[Aidymac]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10 I can see this being a tight game, could easily end up being a draw. I don't think either of these sides will win the Euro's this year, Spain are not the team they were 4 years ago, they scraped through the world cup, and this tournament is probably tougher. They are missing 1 or 2 key players, and i think Italy may be capable of shutting them out. I think under 2.5 is the way to go here.

[Breakballartist]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10 Guys... Thoughts on a decent longer odds punt to take advantage of the 'free' bet3.65 offer? Last one was offered on the Utd City game; went Aguero FGS on that one @ 9s...

[Craigdh123]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10 My first post here, i think you have got to bet on Spain to win (World & European champions with 75% of players coming from arguably the greatest ever club side to have lived). Then double this up with under 10.5 corners. Spains style of football doesnt help them win corners as they will rarely go out wide which i believe is where majority of corners are won (from crosses) A £1 bet can get you £3.06 return (just giving the odds) Craig

[kevshat]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10 :welcome to PL Craig.

[kevshat]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10 3pts Spain to win by one goal 11/4 Ladbrokes

I think the Italians will set up to contain and hit Spain on the break safe in the knowledge that a point is a great result. With Spain possibly light in striking options and needing to break down a brick wall I’ll take them to win this by just the odd goal in the hope and belief that over the course of 90 minutes they have the quality to break Italy down eventually. Full preview here:

http://www.punterslounge.com/spain-vs-italy-betting--spain-can-begin-their-defence-with-a-tight-win-over-defensive-italians

[altocirrus]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10 I don't need to do another Spain team autopsy, but with current situation Italy are facing (injured CBs and three straight lost in friendlies), I don't see Azzuri as a hard team to beat. Spain to nick this one, perhaps by a goal. Spain AH-0.5 1.90 @5d

[staffy]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10 Another game where which I think will be low scoring. maybe 0 v 0. Both sides will be thinking dont lose this and we have a good chance of going through. For that reason I am happy to take the under 2,5 goals. Under 2.5 goals with Betvictor odds 1.60 Stake 10 points Currently minus 5.6 points for the tournament.

[mowgli77]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10 Spain V Italy Spain look the obvious bet but I think Italy might be slightly overpriced at 4-1. Spain have only beat Italy once and that was on penalties (2008) and I feel the Italians could have the style to frustrate the Spanish. I'd expect Spain to have most posession but Italy are masters at soaking up pressure with a defensive game and slow build up. They have had all sorts of problems with injuries and match fixing scandals but still have 7 Juve players in their squad and some decent players likely to line up. There is a suggestion that they might go 3-5-2, that would help counter an area where Spain will excel with the brilliance and accuracy of Xavi. I seem to remember Spain losing an opener to Switzerland (World Cup?) and I don't think this will be totally one sided. Bets: Italy to win (4-1 Bet365) and Italy to win 1-0 (10-1 Betfred)

[Dylan]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10 Very interesting news coming out of the Italian press this morning, as it looks like Prandelli is going to go with his 3-5-2 formation that has been mooted. To be honest whilst in the long term its probably a good change (if he sticks with it) as the large proportion of Serie A clubs do use a similar formation the idea of suddenly changing our defensive shape against one of the great offensive teams like Spain is more than a little concerning. Its looks likely that De Rossi will be played at CB alongside Chellini and Bonnuci and whilst he played a couple of matches for Roma there this season that was out of desperation rather than any ability he has as a centre back. He did ok in those matches but this is a tougher stage and I fear that he may be found out. However, despite the fact that we do have a number of issues in defence, for me the main issue that the Azzurri have is actually defending from the front and as a team against Spain. You really need to have 10 or all 11 men behind the ball to stop them breaking through, and all need to have a good work rate, some degree of defensive nous and the ablity to make challenges and blocks. Looking at the likely attack and midfield I not sure how many of them with the exception of Maggio, Motta and possibly Marchisio (although he is an attack minded midfielder) are disciplined enough to do this. Certainly losing De Rossi from centre mid weakens us quite a bit. Cassano and Balloteli whilst enthusatstic are not particularly well known for defensive work rate, normally at their club sides they are allowed to prance around upfront without too much responsibility. I can see both of them starting off well but after 30 or so minutes getting bored of defending. Pirlo does sit deeper but he is as we know more useful for his passing than his defensive work. I can see him getting tired quite early in the game having to chase shadows around the pitch. Balzaretti of Palermo is likely to play on the left, who I don’t rate particularly and was part of the 3^rd worst defence in Serie A this season. I think we’ll try as hard as we can but I don’t think that team is good enough to hold Spain at bay for the full 90 minutes. The ref for this one is everyone’s favourite Viktor Kassai, someone who can be extremely card happy so I think it’s worth a look at the card markets. I’ve picked a couple that seem a decent price to me anyway. Spain to win – 1.85 at Bet365 (3.5 / 10 units) Italy over 2.5 team cards – 1.80 at bet365 (2 /10 units) Pirlo to be carded 4.0 at Paddy Power (0.5 / 10 units) Thiago Motta to be carded 4.5 at Paddy Power (0.5 / 10 units) :hope

[CiderHead]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10 Italy have well documented problems in the run up to this game, with the match fixing scandal and injury concerns over there defence which was the best in qualifying. Italy have been poor in there warm up games and were shocking against Russia. In qualifying they had the second highest amount of possession, which shows the way in which they like to play. However considering there defensive problems I would expect them to sit back abit more and try to stifle Spains attacking strength. Spain tend to struggle to break sides down when they play deep and concentrate on defending. Eventually they will break through but I feel it may take them time to do this. Time Of First Goal 31st Minute and Over 2.05 William Hill

[SportingGuru]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10 Attack Spain beats Italy hands down in attack. Although, Italy have changed their style of play to more attacking. Defense Italy had the best defensive record in qualifications. Conceded only twice. This may pose problems for Spain's attack. Think of Barca v Chelsea. Their backline consist mostly of the Juve team which this season only conceded 20 goals in 38 matches. Motivation Both teams have easier games against Croatia and Ireland. Possibility they will just want to get a point Weather Gdansk- slightly overcast with temperatures of 20 C Formations Spain likely to play 4-2-3-1 Italy likely to play 4-3-1-2 Starting line up Notables: Italy's Rossi is injured, but Balotelli ready to replace him. But generally short of attacking options. Crucially, Chiellini and Barzagli, heart of Italian defense also injured. Number of fans Both teams will have large sets of supporters. Referee : Viktor Kassai (Hungary) Known for letting the game flow. This will definitely benefit Spain. Past form Italy lost to Russia 3-0 due to injuries in defense. Spain have won all four of their previous internationals. Three of them by a 2+ goal margin Other Italy face other pressures in the form of match fixing scandals at home. This may have a derogatory effect on some of the players mindsets and performance -- SportingGuru says : This is tough to call. Most indicators point towards a Spanish victory by a convincing margin. Look at Spain's attack vs. Italy's weakened defense. Look at past form and even referee. But when you consider Italy's defense, no matter how injury affected, they have the ability to frustrate Spain. Think of Chelsea v Barca again- Italy play their best with their backs up against the wall just like Chelsea. Look at the motivation indicator-neither teams will want to lose this game, especially Italy, so parking the bus is likely going to be a strategy. That is why this is likely to be a low scoring game. Remember also that this is the first game of the group and always tense. -- Good luck to all! :ok

[blackcrow]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10 Over 2.5 @ 2.70 pinnacle Spain will play their natural game and look for openings with their passing, and given that Torres or Llorente will probably play, then they have two very good outlets to finish their chances, especially as Italy look much weaker at the back than they have ever been. Conversely, Italy have the erratic Balotelli and Cassano to head their forward line and these two can be brilliant on their day. They will have a good opportunity on scoring on the Spanish who have not got their 'heart and soul' in defence (Puyol) and look vulnerable without him and can see the Italians scoring here. Both sides to score and Spain likely to grab the winner to send it over

[markvighan]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10 As any other EURO match, this one is expected to be very deffensive. In this situation, I think that taking this bet is a good one. Italy is said to start with 5 defensors and I don't see them attacking too much. Over that, Spain will lead with the ball, that's for sure, and they are not to shot from long distances so I think that they can get a good number of corners. They are not the best scoring from corner situations, specially without Puyol. I specially think Italy may not score, but it can also happen that the favourite, Spain, doesn't get to hit the net. [h=3]BOTH TEAMS TO NOT SCORE @1.73[/h]Source: TFB

[MPLouis]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10

Spain have only beat Italy once and that was on penalties (2008)

According to soccerway, in the last 7 games, Spain have won two, Italy two, and three have been draws - http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2012/06/10/europe/european-championships/spain/italy/1063196/head2head/ I'm finding it hard to predict this game, but I think it's likely to be tight, with a narrow Spain victory or a draw looking the most likely, and a narrow Italy win the outsider. A late breakaway goal is always possible if either side is winning by one goal nearing the end.

[Wolflord]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10

Over 2.5 @ 2.70 pinnacle Spain will play their natural game and look for openings with their passing, and given that Torres or Llorente will probably play, then they have two very good outlets to finish their chances, especially as Italy look much weaker at the back than they have ever been. Conversely, Italy have the erratic Balotelli and Cassano to head their forward line and these two can be brilliant on their day. They will have a good opportunity on scoring on the Spanish who have not got their 'heart and soul' in defence (Puyol) and look vulnerable without him and can see the Italians scoring here. Both sides to score and Spain likely to grab the winner to send it over

Hey Blackcrow! I would like to disagree with you. Spain is lining up like this: Spain: Casillas, Arbeloa, Ramos, Pique, Alba, Alonso, Busquets, Silva, Xavi, Iniesta, Fabregas. They are starting with no forwards. Can't imagine where the goals will come from, unless they are planning to pass all the way over the line.

[CiderHead]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10 Silva will play the "false nine" position that Messi occupies for Barcelona which he has done on a few occassions for Spain previously. It will be a very fluid formation with the players changing positions

[santos_]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10 I think this will be a very close game. The Italians are going to try and outnumber them in midfield looking at that formation. I think the Italians will frustrate Spain and get to half time level but expect them to not be able to last the whole 90 mins and Spain to win 1 or 2 nil. I can't see many goals in this but I've gone HT/FT Draw/Spain at 4.9.

[santos_]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10 I don't like this no striker thing....Spain have all the tiki taka passing and no end product with no striker there seems no focal point or person to look for when there putting in crosses etc. Esp when they have players like Llorente on the bench seems a waste.

[mowgli77]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10

According to soccerway, in the last 7 games, Spain have won two, Italy two, and three have been draws - http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2012/06/10/europe/european-championships/spain/italy/1063196/head2head/ I'm finding it hard to predict this game, but I think it's likely to be tight, with a narrow Spain victory or a draw looking the most likely, and a narrow Italy win the outsider. A late breakaway goal is always possible if either side is winning by one goal nearing the end.

Stats are for competitive games only, taken from BBC website. Head to head details:

Head-to-head

• Spain beat Italy in the quarter-finals of Euro 2008 on penalties but have not defeated them in a competitive game without the aid of a shoot-out since a 2-0 win at the 1920 Olympics.
• The only other previous European Championship meetings were group games in 1980 (a 0-0 draw in Milan) and 1988 (a 1-0 win for Italy, courtesy of Gianluca Vialli).
• Six of the last nine matches between Spain and Italy have been goalless at half-time.

The last of those stats has already come in but I never do HT betting usually. :ok

[MPLouis]

Re: Spain v Italy > June 10

Stats are for competitive games only' date=' taken from BBC website. Head to head details[/quote'] OK :ok