BillyHills Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Ok, time for something to do while the flat season has its few months in the sunshine. Not a massive fan of the flat so this will give me some interest, the other reason is I want to do some research on favourite betting and this will provide some useful information as we go along. The idea is that i run two systems, both on favourites, the first on the shortest priced fav of the day and the second on the longest priced fav. Only including Irish meetings when insufficient racing, i.e. only one other meeting on this side of the water. Obviously they will have different strike rates so the first system will be staked differently, i'm going to throw 100pts at each and see how long it lasts. System 1 will use 20% of Bank after a winner and System 2 will use 10% after a winner. If selections are tied i will use the biggest difference between fav and 2nd fav and so on. After doing my morning jobs i usually get around to looking at the days races about 10.30/11.00, i will use Oddschecker to see what is the shortest price fav at that time and back them with any BOG firms. I feel the markets have settled down a bit by then anyway and you get a true reflection on the odds. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 2, 2012 Author Share Posted May 2, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies Day 1; S1: 2.35 Kem: Fallen For You 20pts (1/4 Betfred) S2: 7.30 Kelso: Isla Pearl Fisher 10pts (5/1 BetVic) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies Good luck! :ok Although I hold that wish until after the 7.30! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavlar17 Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies 2 out of 2... Excellent stuff. Wll be worth keeping an eye on. I used to refuse to backs favs on the flat but see myself as more of a fav backer than ever these days! Hopefully ur 100% strike rate lasts all summer... Haha. Gav. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 3, 2012 Author Share Posted May 3, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies Lucky start! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 3, 2012 Author Share Posted May 3, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies Day 2; S1: 220 Her: Shoegazer 21pts (2/5 Betfred,PP) S2: 540 Bri: Alpha Tauri 15.50pts (6/1 Ladbrokes) :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 4, 2012 Author Share Posted May 4, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 4, 2012 Author Share Posted May 4, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies Day 3; S1: 515 Font: Hindon Road 22.68pts (4/5 BetVic) S2: 400 Mus: Powerful Presence 15.50pts (9/2 Bet365) Pretty close for S2 but the 4.00 at Muss has a clear fav, the 5.00 and 5.30 races are joint fav's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skips1974 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies Well done again mate nice prices also keep up the good work:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 5, 2012 Author Share Posted May 5, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies Think i should quit now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies :eek Awesome stuff Graham :clap Although I'm disappointed that you've picked 1 loser :lol Seriously, great start. Could prove nicely profitable, keep it going mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allanmac83 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies Superb mate,, what a start, all the best for 2day if any bets!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 5, 2012 Author Share Posted May 5, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies Thanks chaps, early days yet though! S1: 8.00 Don: Sentaril 26.31pts (4/9 BetVic) S2: 3.45 New: Mayson 20.93pts (5/1 Bet365) Again close thing with S2, Mayson gets the vote as he is clear fav, both Fury and Mince are jnt fav's in some lists and the other contenders are not available with a BOG firm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allanmac83 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies Fingers crossed billy, hope it comes up!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies Just saw this thread now, cracking start BH.. Could be a new money making machine for you? :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies Mayson. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies :notworthy:notworthy Too easy Graham. Amazing stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allanmac83 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies Well done mate,, superb!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 5, 2012 Author Share Posted May 5, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies Fixed!!:rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 6, 2012 Author Share Posted May 6, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies Day 5; S1: 1.50 Sal: Fort Bastion 28.62pts (1/8 Bet365) S2: 5.35 NM: Samba King 31.39pts (9/2 BetVic) Again a tricky call on S2, the 27 runner race at NM has 3 co/favs at the moment. Anatolia in the first is joint fav with one BOG firm and the two at Hamilton are also Joint fav's in places. Samba King is clear fav on all BOG lists so is the qualifier. S1 is very predictable but have to follow them at any price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allanmac83 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies All the best again for 2day mate, fingers crossed :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allanmac83 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies Unlucky with s2, could not get going!! Always 2morro!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 6, 2012 Author Share Posted May 6, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies Normal service resumed! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 7, 2012 Author Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies Day 6; S1: 245 Kem: Citius 29.43pts (8/13 Bet365) S2: 530 Bev: Watts Up Son 31.39pts (9/2 Bet365) S2 has bigger prices in the 445 at Bath but we have three different fav's so race left alone.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 8, 2012 Author Share Posted May 8, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies Rubbish Day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 8, 2012 Author Share Posted May 8, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies S1:625 Exe: Bold Henry 29.43pts (2/5 Bet365) S2:655 Exe: Buck Magic 31.39pts (7/2 WH) Unclear fav in the last race at Catterick for S2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 9, 2012 Author Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies Ok, end of week 1 and pretty satisfied with the figures so far. S1 has to perform at such high strike rate levels to succeed and S2 although a bit hit and miss could manage at below 50% SR as the prices are a little bigger than i first thought they would be, i think it shows the value on offer from the online bookmakers in the morning. I have thought for some time that the on course bookies are strangling the markets and squeezing out any value left by off time. Interesting project and we will see how it goes, i do expect S2 to calm down and maybe one in three winners would be ok? Could do with a winner soon though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 9, 2012 Author Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies May 9th; S1: 3.30 Sth: Vivid Blue 25.89pts (8/15 BetVic) S2: 2.35 Chs: Shubaat 31.39pts (11/2 BetVic) :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allanmac83 Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies Best of luck 2day!! hopefully s2 will get back on form!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 9, 2012 Author Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: BH's Summer Jollies Terrible run for our money! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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