Weekend > League 2 > 13-14 April

[western skies]

[TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 13 April 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Barnet v Hereford United (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.15 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.86 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 14 April 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Aldershot Town v Dagenham & Redbridge (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.1 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.8 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]103.35 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Bristol Rovers v Burton Albion (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.15 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.8 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.40 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Cheltenham Town v Accrington Stanley (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.8 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.75 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.75 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]103.27 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Crawley Town v AFC Wimbledon (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.53 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.53 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Macclesfield Town v Crewe Alexandra (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.4 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.49 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Morecambe v Port Vale (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.25 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.59 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Northampton Town v Bradford City (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.46 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Oxford United v Gillingham (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.05 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.33 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]99.64 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Shrewsbury Town v Rotherham United (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.7 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.8 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.25 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.19 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Swindon Town v Plymouth Argyle (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.44 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.75 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]103.62 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Torquay United v Southend United (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.33 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.85 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[maliniok]

Re: Weekend > League 2 > 13-14 April Early tip from me as I noticed an interesting thing last time out. I am going to take Swindon to win to nil. The reasoning is that Swindon have conceded just one goal at home in 2012 and that was against a strong Shrewsbury team. If they win this game they will celebrate promotion so I expect them to be focused to get all 3 points. If we go by this season's stats for both teams the actual chance of this happening is 50% so all odds above evens have value. Anyway current odds are 2.4 with 365 but I think they will grow on Saturday morning. I took Swindon to win to nil against Northampton the day before the game @ 2.37 (initial odds were 2.25) and then checked the odds 10 minutes before kick off and they were at an amazing 2.75!!! I had to keep my discipline though and didn't add a further stake which is a shame as Robins won 1-0. I wonder if it is a common trend, maybe this market isn't very popular? Anyway, i think current odds of 2.4 already have big value but will risk it and see on Saturday morning if the odds will go up again.

[MPLouis]

Re: Weekend > League 2 > 13-14 April

Early tip from me as I noticed an interesting thing last time out. I am going to take Swindon to win to nil. The reasoning is that Swindon have conceded just one goal at home in 2012 and that was against a strong Shrewsbury team. If they win this game they will celebrate promotion so I expect them to be focused to get all 3 points. If we go by this season's stats for both teams the actual chance of this happening is 50% so all odds above evens have value. Anyway current odds are 2.4 with 365 but I think they will grow on Saturday morning. I took Swindon to win to nil against Northampton the day before the game @ 2.37 (initial odds were 2.25) and then checked the odds 10 minutes before kick off and they were at an amazing 2.75!!! I had to keep my discipline though and didn't add a further stake which is a shame as Robins won 1-0. I wonder if it is a common trend' date=' maybe this market isn't very popular? Anyway, i think current odds of 2.4 already have big value but will risk it and see on Saturday morning if the odds will go up again.[/quote'] The slightly lower risk Swindon clean sheet is 2.1 with a few bookmakers (this would cover a 0-0 scoreline as well as a Swindon win to nil). Or Both to Score NO is 1.83, which would cover either team not scoring. When you notice that Swindon have kept a clean sheet in 17 of their 21 home games this season, I suppose you could argue that these bets might be some sort of value ... http://uk.soccerway.com/national/england/league-two/2011-2012/regular-season

[allthethings]

Re: Weekend > League 2 > 13-14 April Barnet v Hereford Hereford to win @ 3.96 A classic 6-pointer at the bottom of the table. Hereford have played 17 games as away dogs of roughly 4.0 and better, and they've won 3, drawn 7 and lost 7. A win puts them level with Barnet at 39 points, a draw puts them that much closer to non-conference play. Granted, Barnet's form is deceptive...four straight losses but to four of the top six teams...but no team as poor as them should be a favorite this large, even at home. Looking closer at their away results...Hereford have faced all these teams as underdogs of better than 4.00: Plymouth (20th)...draw Northampton (18th)...win Dag & Red (19th)...win Bradford (21st)...draw Burton Albion (16th)...win AFC Wimbledon (17th)...draw Bristol Rovers (15th)...draw They also drew 2-2 at Macclesfield (23rd), but weren't a big underdog in that game. And if you're curious, in those seven games above, six went under 2.5 goals.

[maliniok]

Re: Weekend > League 2 > 13-14 April

Early tip from me as I noticed an interesting thing last time out. I am going to take Swindon to win to nil. The reasoning is that Swindon have conceded just one goal at home in 2012 and that was against a strong Shrewsbury team. If they win this game they will celebrate promotion so I expect them to be focused to get all 3 points. If we go by this season's stats for both teams the actual chance of this happening is 50% so all odds above evens have value. Anyway current odds are 2.4 with 365 but I think they will grow on Saturday morning. I took Swindon to win to nil against Northampton the day before the game @ 2.37 (initial odds were 2.25) and then checked the odds 10 minutes before kick off and they were at an amazing 2.75!!! I had to keep my discipline though and didn't add a further stake which is a shame as Robins won 1-0. I wonder if it is a common trend' date=' maybe this market isn't very popular? Anyway, i think current odds of 2.4 already have big value but will risk it and see on Saturday morning if the odds will go up again.[/quote']Swindon 1 Plymouth 0 - bet won! You can always rely on Robins to keep a clean sheet at home. The only mistake I made was that odds dropped this morning to 2.25 but it was still a value bet!

[MPLouis]

Re: Weekend > League 2 > 13-14 April

Swindon 1 Plymouth 0 - bet won! You can always rely on Robins to keep a clean sheet at home. The only mistake I made was that odds dropped this morning to 2.25 but it was still a value bet!

Fantastic value :clap Surely would have been longer odds if it was in a league with more exposure (say The Championship or Premier League for example).

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Weekend > League 2 > 13-14 April Good tip for the future if this sort of thing happens again : Shrewsbury - Rotherham It was only on Friday afternoon (by which time too late as I'd missed the boat) I suddenly thought hold on, odds for Shrewsbury at 1.70 ish yesterfay were way too low, I'd realised Steve Evans Rotherham will be fired up under him now so the odds for Shrews might increase. Also he'd been to Shrews with Crawley only few weeks back and Shrews didnt look great to me that night, 2 shots on target 2 goals. Anyhow, the tip is watch out for those managerial moves and Lay and Back accordingly. In this case if you'd layed Shrews at 1.70 midweek with a liability of £100, (the stake would show as £143.00), and then Back them at odds of 2.06 which is what they were just before Kick Off with a stake of £118, that would give you £23.75 whatever the result, before a ball had even been kicked. Good opportunity missed. :sad