England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24

[Shipsupstreets]

[TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 24 March 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Alfreton Town v Cambridge United (15:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13/8 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 23/10 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9/5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.11 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Barrow v Braintree Town (15:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5/4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11/5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.11 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Ebbsfleet United v Kettering Town (15:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/33 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/33 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/33 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]291.26 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Fleetwood Town v Mansfield Town (15:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8/11 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11/4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.56 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Hayes & Yeading v AFC Telford United (15:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 19/10 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.56 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Kidderminster Harriers v Darlington (15:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/33 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/33 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/33 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]291.26 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Lincoln City v Newport County (15:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 23/10 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.30 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Luton Town v Grimsby Town (15:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5/2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7/2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]106.35 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Stockport County v Bath City (15:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5/6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7/2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]103.38 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Tamworth v Gateshead (15:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 15/8 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7/5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.86 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Wrexham v Forest Green Rovers (15:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9/20 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 10/3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 15/2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]103.60 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] York City v Southport (15:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5/6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11/4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7/2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.49 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[bartonbank]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24 A couple of early takes for me, one of which, as a Wrexham fan, I would certainly be pleased about. Firstly the quote of 4/1 and above on Mansfield to take 3 points from Fleetwood is, irresprective of the home team's form, an insult to the away team who have forced themselves into the playoffs with a string of victories. Fleetwood's home form is not as good as their away form and, over the last eight game sequence they have identical records. Around 5/2 is available on the DNB market and, for a safer play, that is also value. Secondly, although Grimsby's form can be described as 'variable', the form of Luton, and especially the teams confidence, appears to be approaching meltdown. Brabin doesn't know his best team, formation or, indeed, any player's best position and the natives are getting extremely restless. Comments about the body language of the management team during matches also reflects the pressure they are under and Grimsby are coming to play them at just the right time. Grimsby have only lost one of their last five away games and I feel that if they can go a goal up Luton's fans will rapidly lose patience with the underperforming home team. Around 7/2 is avaiable

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24 I think Brabin has really struggled as Luton boss and agree with everything you say about him and the team. I just wonder if the pressure is too much for him and the players to handle. At the start of the season it looked like they may struggle up front and so it has proved and when he had a chance to bring fresh blood in he signed a player who now hasnt scored a goal for over a year. It seems daft playing Fleetwood out wide as that doesnt play to his strengths. It wouldnt surprise me if he got the sack if they were to lose on Saturday.

[maliniok]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24 Agree with Grimsby and Luton - way overpriced. I think Grimsby +0.5 may be the way to go but will do some more research. Another tepmting one is 0 AH @1.625 on Barrow at home. I know they lost their last 4 games and ended their brief playoff chance and this is the reason I want to back them. I think this sudden, unexpected pressure affected the team adversely and they will play better now when they play for nothing. Barrow's pre-season target was the same as every year - avoid relegation ASAP and see what can be done then. They did brilliantly getting within the reach of playoffs and I think they collapsed under the amount of expectation. I can't find another explanation to their home defeat to Bath and the 7-0 bashing from Mansfield. I expect them to bounce back against a team who is also doing relatively well this season but managed just one away win since the end of November. Price is good as I would have Barrow straight win around 1.8 mark.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24 I must admit 5/4 on Barrow is even tempting me a bit. I just wonder if what happened behind the scenes a few weeks back is catching up with them though and that is why the poor form of late and as I said last week I do wonder if it might continue until the end of the season. Having said that its a long trip for a part time side who as you point out have been poor away from home. I usually leave Barrow games alone but that price looks on the face of it bigger than it should be.

[RedDevil92]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24 What about under 2,5 as Luton struggles to find the net. They scored just 7 goals in their last 8 matches while they also conceded just 7 in those 8 matches. All in all just 10 goals conceded at home. So your thoughts?

[bartonbank]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24 Presently their strikers do have trouble scoring although it is mainly because of Brabin playing 4-5-1 with a short fat guy up front and then lumping long balls to him, or playing a recognised striker on the wing. However they have today signed Andre Gray on loan from Hinckley with a view to it becoming permanent. He is quick and strong and scored 40 in 90 games for Hinckley in BSN. He is at least in form and it may take Brabin a game or tweo to feck up his confidence. That is the only new consideration, RD, but I can certainly see legs in your bet.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24 To me that signing smells of desperation, but we shall see.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24

To me that signing smells of desperation' date=' but we shall see.[/quote'] It actually looks to me like a 'planning for next season' signing, though of questionable value at this stage. Desperation would be overpaying for an experienced striker in a higher league who is out of form - how many has Enoch Showumni scored this season?

[kevshat]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24

What about under 2' date='5 as Luton struggles to find the net. They scored just 7 goals in their last 8 matches while they also conceded just 7 in those 8 matches. All in all just 10 goals conceded at home. So your thoughts?[/quote'] We don't generally have too many problems scoring at home though. I think off the top of my head only Mansfield have stopped us scoring down here since the middle of October and we've had Fleetwood, Northampton, Cheltenham and York down here in that time. Grimsby have only kept one clean sheet since the end of January and they've played Bath and Hayes in that time. They've only failed to score twice since the beginning of December too. Although York's goal last week was the only one we've conceded in 11 down here we have got a couple of defensive issues on Saturday with both first choice full backs missing. Then there's the fact that with their position in the table Grimsby will probably have to come at us and look to take 3pts and that's generally when we are at our best. We were beyond awful on Tuesday night, maybe due to the disappointment of missing out on Wembley, maybe due to other reasons but if Brabin has the respect of the players that the players claim he has then they will need to prove that with a decent performance on Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't 3 goals but a 2-1 scoreline has to be a massive danger. That's my take on it watching Luton week in week out and hope it helps despite the 2 Luton experts appearing to think otherwise :ok.

[kevshat]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24

To me that signing smells of desperation' date=' but we shall see.[/quote']

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24 It was the amount they paid for him that seemed the desperate part to me. Id have been more interested in opposing Luton if the game had of been on a Tuesday night as for whatever reason their mid-week form is awful. Grimsby arent anything special and I do think that if Luton are at their best they will win but at the same time the price is probably too big on Grimsby.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24

We looked at him in pre-season. We've finally signed him now and probably now rather than the end of the season because AMS was ruled out for the rest of the season today.

I hadn't realised that: a straight cover signing. Did he play in the Trophy games?

[kevshat]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24

I hadn't realised that: a straight cover signing. Did he play in the Trophy games?

He played in both Trophy games against us. Really impressed me in the game up there although that should be tempered a little bit by the fact we had a very young side out that night. He forced Tyler to make a couple of good saves in the replay down here too. Looks a good signing for us for £30k for a 20 year old who clearly knows where the net is and should be confident should chances come his way between now and the end of the season. He seems to have that cockiness and arrogance that we're missing up top so fingers crossed he'll be a good signing.

[MPLouis]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24

It was the amount they paid for him that seemed the desperate part to me. Id have been more interested in opposing Luton if the game had of been on a Tuesday night as for whatever reason their mid-week form is awful. Grimsby arent anything special and I do think that if Luton are at their best they will win but at the same time the price is probably too big on Grimsby.

I noticed Grimsby's odds looked quite generous. Latest odds I can see for home and away are 1.85 v 4.5 and the latter seems too high here. Luton's home form is very impressive. I suppose one question is how they will cope with the pressure of playing a side 4 points below them in the battle for a playoff place.

[MPLouis]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24 Talking of playoffs, York v Southport is an interesting fixture, pitting 6th v 5th. Both teams seem to be in pretty good form. Southport look a bit too long to me at 5.0. Is there a reason for that price?

[MPLouis]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24 One more game - Tamworth v Gateshead. I think Gateshead look reasonable value at 2.38. They are just outside the playoffs and in reasonable form. Tamworth are mid-table and haven't scored for the last 5 games http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2012/03/24/england/conference-national/tamworth-fc/gateshead-fc/1139571/

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24 Southport still amaze me as I dont think they are that good but they keep winning. York are the better side but they have had silly results at home and I admit that the Southport price does look on the large side. As for Gateshead they also arent really playing well and remain very inconsistent, Tamworth arent great but they do frustrate teams and make it hard for them. Gateshead have the quality to score but I can see them struggling to break Tamworth down and it doesnt strike me as a betting game.

[maliniok]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24

Talking of playoffs' date=' York v Southport is an interesting fixture, pitting 6th v 5th. Both teams seem to be in pretty good form. Southport look a bit too long to me at 5.0. Is there a reason for that price?[/quote']Luton's and York's rivals are overpriced? Where do we start? Two sides that epitomise the 'We're former Football League sides and we shouldn't be in this tinpot league' approach. Attitude bigger that real ability. No humility. Lack of understanding of the word 'former'. Thankfully bookies prices also reflect that - a bit like West Ham in the Championship - consistently underpriced. I agree there is no reason for Southport and Grimsby prices to be so large and hopefully someone will take advantage of it. I won't this time because I've already had my main bet for the weekend. But the good news is that both Luton and York are to stay in the Conference for at least another year and next season or this season in the playoffs we will also be able to take the advantage of the wrong odds. By the way, my bet for Saturday is Barrow 0 AH to beat Braintree @ 1.7 with 365. Good price on a strong home team who will look to bounce back after 4 straight defeats, 3 of which were away.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24 Alfreton v Cambridge United I tipped up Alfreton a few weeks ago when they drew 0-0 against AFC Telford when they really should have scored at least one. Naturally in the four games since they haven’t had a problem finding the net and have scored 12 during that spell. I know they ended up losing 6-3 to Mansfield on Tuesday night but they are on fire at the moment and played their part in a good game. Prior to that they had won three on the bounce and are beginning to pull clear of the relegation zone. I think they are playing better than Saturday’s opponents at the moment as Cambridge have been struggling for form for a while now. They have managed two wins in their last six but those came against a poor Stockport side and a Barrow who are also struggling right now. I think the problem is their young squad, which played so well for the first half of the season, is beginning to tire and struggle for consistency as we hit the final stretch. The play-offs have gone for them now and another couple of wins for Alfreton should be enough for them to spend another season in the Blue Square Premier, so they will definitely want this more. 6/4 is generally available and it looks a solid bet.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24 I decided against Barrow in the end because of a real lack of goals at the moment and they only managed one shot for the whole 90 minutes last Saturday which wasnt even on target. For me it takes a real leap of faith to back a team who produce an effort like that last time out and any team who failed to score against a poor Bath defence shows a striking problem.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24 A couple of spreads for the weekend. I've bought total goals in the Lincoln/Newport game at a 2.7 with Sporting. Although this should in theory be tight, both sides will be reshuffling their defences and if Lincoln score first I can't see them keeping it tight enough to hold onto a 1-0. Though the home side are lacking a cutting edge at the moment, Newport's last clean sheet on the road was at Hayes in November. I've done the same in the Hayes & Yeading United/AFC Telford game, at 3 with Spreadex. Since a 0-0 at York in August Telford have managed one clean sheet away from home (at Alfreton) and I'm sure Hayes have enough in the tank to score. The worry is whether Telford can score, but they have managed the odd brace here and there, and I suspect they will go for this, although they won't be able to dominate the home side as Grimsby did in midweek. On the player goal minute quotes, Richard Pacquette is sort of interesting at 18 but he's rarely lasting an hour at the moment. Perhaps the pick is Bath's Sean Canham at 14 with Sporting. He's been in good form, scored and had one disallowed midweek, and might get a chance or two against a Stockport side that looks to be entering another rocky patch.

[bartonbank]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24 Interesting pick on Alfreton as the highlights on the Mansfield club site were certainly entertaining and it could have finish 8-8! to be fair to Alfreton Mansfield's finishing was pretty impressive and they move from defence to attack pretty quickly so teams other than Alfreton will have trouble. On the night it is fair to say that Mansfield's defending wasn't great either.... ...which brings me on to the Fleetwood-Mansfield game again. This game has goals written all over it and, at 2.55 with SJ, I am going for over 3.5. Fleetwood have a potent strike force as we all know and have an uncanny knack of getting a penalty or two (!) but equally if their defence is attacked with pace it is not that great either. That is something Mansfield do very well and this could easily finish 3-2 or above.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24 That's a good shout on Fleetwood/Mansfield goals, BB. Mansfield's 'shot count' has invariably been in double figures for the past few weeks (and was over 20 against Barrow), and it's also true that they allow their opponents a chance (Alfreton had as many opportunities as Mansfield in the 3-6). I'm guessing they are the most prolific Prem side since Christmas. A sell of Mansfield's 2nd goal at 80 with Sporting Index is a low risk trade, and total goals at 3.15 is a decent buy. I looked at Matt Green's player goal minutes as he's been a lucrative source of income this season, but at 20 to buy I feel he's marginal value.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24 Ive gone for glory as well today as I do feel there are some over priced away sides so I have done a super yankee with Bath, Grimsby, Mansfield, FGR and Southport. It looks a low risk bet as a couple win and it covers it anymore than that and it will be a nice profit.

[allthethings]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24

Ive gone for glory as well today as I do feel there are some over priced away sides so I have done a super yankee with Bath' date=' Grimsby, Mansfield, FGR and Southport. It looks a low risk bet as a couple win and it covers it anymore than that and it will be a nice profit.[/quote'] I do this every week. In BSP, though, the dogs tend to draw, not win outright...although wins have outpaced draws in the past few weeks. It was a more pronounced tendency toward draws a month ago. Stats on the season: Dogs of 4.00 to 4.99: 24-27-52 Dogs of 5.00 to 5.99: 7-15-20 Dogs of 6.00+: 4-9-47 I don't play dogs of 6 or more in this league, but to do play them to draw between 4 and 5.99.

[allthethings]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24

Interesting pick on Alfreton as the highlights on the Mansfield club site were certainly entertaining and it could have finish 8-8! to be fair to Alfreton Mansfield's finishing was pretty impressive and they move from defence to attack pretty quickly so teams other than Alfreton will have trouble. On the night it is fair to say that Mansfield's defending wasn't great either.... ...which brings me on to the Fleetwood-Mansfield game again. This game has goals written all over it and, at 2.55 with SJ, I am going for over 3.5. Fleetwood have a potent strike force as we all know and have an uncanny knack of getting a penalty or two (!) but equally if their defence is attacked with pace it is not that great either. That is something Mansfield do very well and this could easily finish 3-2 or above.

I disagree on this one. Games between top teams often show both teams with scoring ability, but the numbers are skewed by games they've played against bottom teams. Mansfield put 6 past Alfreton, and Fleetwood put 4 by Alfreton. So what? Mansfield have not been prolific scorers away, and they'll perforce have to put the clamps down if they hope to get anything from the game. See Luton 0, Mansfield 0 in January. Fleetwood's most recent home games against top-10-placed sides were 1-0 over Cambridge and 2-1 over Grmsby that featured an own-goal, a PK and 1 winner in extra time.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24 Massive late late goal from Forest Green means it could be Fleetwood's title after they had a solid win against Mansfield. Gray scored on his debut for Luton but the drop points again, whilst Southport got a massive victory at York who yet again drop points at home this season. Bath already looked doomed but they arent coming back after todays drubbing. Alfreton came up trumps for me and they will be safe. Sorry Malinok but it looks like I was right with Barrow, they really have lost the plot. Will be interested to see how many shots they mustered today.

[allthethings]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24 You got your two wins, addpea, congrats. I just got the one draw to go with three losses by my dogs, a push over all.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 24 No joy for me on the spreads with Hayes/Telford ending 0-0 and a smaller loss on Lincoln/Newport, which made up two. Canham - who was subbed early on in the 2nd half - also made up 0. Great calls by addpea today on Alfreton, and especially for landing a Southport-FGR double.