BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012

[Jimmy2shoes]

Cant find any plan for Ayr to inspect so i will stick with my local track. Trainer F.Murphy does like a winner at Ayr and sends out just the two runners. Ferdy can be a very shrewd customer at times and i would not let the price of this one put anyone off. Ferdy ownes this 11 year old gelding and would not be taking him along for the hell of it, he's still very lightly raced having only the 5 races but yet to win a race, he was 6th last time out and was never dangerous but back in 2009 he was 2nd at 80/1 and was infront that day of a JJ Quinn trained 4/7 shot. Sure its a chance call but this race is wide open and it would be NO surprise to me in seeing him place or even win. Jockey Tony Kelly gets the leg up for this sole ride. Ayr 3:10 - Macs Island. 0.5 e/w bet @ SP

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012 *Malin Head - Folkestone 3:30* Has no form on offer, has a point win to its name but is having its handicap debut and chase debut tomorrow for Bob Buckler and gets in off a leniant mark of 73. Was 50/1, 100/1 and 100/1 on its only three starts to date to see it as now an 8/1 shot, i feel they are expecting a lot more improvement fron the horse tomorrow. Mr Buckler had a winner on 2nd January with Double Dizzy so he is in ok nick and Andrew Glassonbury is 2/16 at Folkestone. *1 Point WIN @ 8/1 VC BOG*

[Petersson1984]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012 15:10 Ayr Harry Handsome E/W (13,00) PaddyPower First handicap run for this 7 year old. He could benefit for the extra couple of furlongs and surprice the rest of the field. Old Magic and Acordingtoscript are the main threat but are yet to show real strenght. In general its a week field and all of these horses could win it. Harry Handsome recent form. 7-4-5-9 The jockey Renwick are booked for the 5th run in a row.

[mowgli77]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012 Sawago 2.00pm Folkestone - 15-8 Paddypower BOG Looking at this race I'm actually thinking this could be an odds on chance at 15-8 but I might have got the race all wrong. Can't fancy Border Station at al, beaten 59l by Sawago last time out. Lady Willa beaten miles in ordinary small field races, looks to have no chance. Watergate also well beaten but back on better ground might be a different prospect, still a lot to prove. Knock Boy, 10 yr old and inconsistent, outclassed. Russian Conquest well beaten in ordianry races either side of a victory. Sawago is rated 102 but beat a 105 rated horse by 15 lengths with a 104 rated horse another 15 lengths behind that. It's 2nd places were only by 5 lengths and 3 3/4 lengths. Morestead showed it is no mug when reversing form last time out on heavy ground and I think Sawago has a very solid chance of winning this race. I like Fehily, great jockey in my opinion and he was on board for the 15 length win. I see this going off a lot shorter on the day. EDIT: Bet365 have literally just priced up at 2-1 if I can change that, no problem if I can't. Didn't want to just edit it and say nothing.

[Made_In_Britain]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012 2.00 Folkestone - LADY WILLIA - 0.5 E.W - 12/1 William Hill Previous Course and distance winner around here , Dual winner over 2 1/4m hurdles last year , But has been on a downhill slope since then Jockey Tommy Phelan gets on well with the horse , This horse has been in the top 3 in his last 3 runs , Looks to have strong each way claims if things fall his way.

[ipitydafool]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012 2.10 Ayr Ballycarron Lad 1pt win @ 7-2 PaddyPower Previous winner at distance and has favoured ground conditions (good to soft). FTO this season for this horse and is surely not being brought over from Antrim to make up numbers. Has 7lb claimer to lighten the load and off this mark should have chance. Trainer S Crawford horses seem in good order with nice winner last Thursday in Catterick. 18% strike rate in Ayr in last 12 months.

[LJD]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012 Only Hope - Folkestone 2.30 Hopefully Folkestone will be on today but it does seem that it won't be. But if it is Only Hope looks like a good bet. This horse is still a maiden after a lot of races but it is in good form, being placed in something like its last 7 races so it should have a good chance of going one further today. The favourite looks like a good bet too but I can't fully trust it with its penalty today so I'll go with Only Hope Only Hope win @*3/1 Paddy Power BOG

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012 1.40 Ayr Yes Tom 1pt win 7/2 Bet365 This is a small but select field in what looks a good novice chase. Every runner in the field can be given a chance but the one I prefer is Yes Tom. Yes Tom fell last time out at Gowran Park on only his 2nd start over fences but jumped well up until that point. He was sent off 3rd favourite in what looked a good Beginners Chase but came down at the 7th fence when still travelling well. That day he was ridden by a very inexperienced 7lb claimer but today Paddy Brennan takes over which is a big plus. On his chasing debut at Down Royal he ran a good race to finish 3rd considering it was his first run in over 200 days. He didn’t get the chance to show what he can do last time out so I expect a big run from him in this. Yes Tom is already a winner at the track and his form figures here actually read 2-2-2-1-4. He has shown that he has plenty of speed by chasing home Wyse Hill Teabags but more notably Sprinter Sacre in a couple of bumpers at the track. This time last year he finished 2nd to Grand National winner Ballabriggs at the track before easily getting his first win at Ayr over 3m. He followed that with a 4th place in grade 3 company before being put away for a chasing campaign this year. I don’t know much about the trainer but he has a good 36% strike rate at the track and has the best level stakes profit of any trainer with +£46.12. He hasn’t had any recent runners but I have no doubts that Yes Tom will be ready to go for this. Paddy Brennan hasn’t had many rides at the track but he is 3 from 10 with a good level stakes profit of +£8.38. Of the opposition the horse I least fancy is Storming Gale. He was well beaten into 2nd last time out but could be helped by the drop in trip. Blenheim Brook is ultra consistent and was a very easy winner at Newcastle over 3m and will handle the drop back in trip but could be vulnerable to speedier types. The biggest danger may well come from Dowd’s Destiny who romped to victory at this track over 2m5f last time out. He has shown plenty of promise in his 2 chase starts but should find the opposition tougher today. He hasn’t had much racing for a 9 year old so has clearly had his problems but he looks to be over them now. I see him as the main danger to my selection. This is a tough race but I do like the look of Yes Tom. Sprinter Sacre beat him easily but he battled on well that day and the pair pulled over 20 lengths clear of the field. That did come back in 2010 but I am hoping that speed may hold him in good stead here against rivals that are dropping back in trip.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012 1:30 Folkestone - One Lucky Lady - Back His debut 2nd is, by a long way, the best piece of form on offer in this race. You would expect him to make natural improvement and come on for that run and if that proves to be the case then he should be difficult to beat here 1pt win @ 8/11 Hills BOG

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012 A2.10 Duke of Malfi 1pt Win 18/1 Stan James Only 7 runners go to post but I don't fancy any of the market leaders and this one has the form in the book if getting back on track. The horse likes to get its toe in but doesn't like it bottomless so todays ground should be ideal. The horses last 2 visits to the course have both yielded wins and if the longer trip suits, it could go very close at a decent price. The trainer has an incredible 25% strike rate this season and puts up a better claimer on the horse for the first time.

[fosterbet5]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012 13:30 kambis 12/1 e/w PP one of the most experienced horses in this event which always seems to play a huge part and sometimes seems to work out more important that ability itself . however not lacking ability either came 4th in previous run in good company as the winner was ranjaan . his best effort has come from soft ground as it is today where as none of the other good prospects have in this race . the favourite should win but im willing to take it on esecialy is i can take a place at 12's . good jockey on board and its his only ride today which is a positive . should go well .

[Edberg]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012 1.10 Ayr BetVictor.com Maiden Hurdle Cl5 2m FIND A KEY 7/2 bog (Ladbrokes, Sportingbet) Find A Key is gonna make his debut over hurdles in this race but he gave a very good impression in his first ever start 9 months ago when able to win a bumper at Hexham at the end of nice fight gamely beating No Planning (head behind), Tricksofthetrade (1 1/4L) and Sinfield (1 3/4L) in what I rate a very decent race. Sue Smith's No Planning went on winning with ease his next start (another similar bumper at Hexham 4 weeks later) and has had three good runs over hurdles in this 2011-12 campaign easily winning a Class 3 Novices' Hurdle at Wetherby in his debut over hurdles at the end of October, then collecting a 5/5 at Haydock in the Betfair Hurdle (Class 2) 24L behind Grandouet in November and in his last start another solid effort at Catterick when 4th of 14 after having raced prominently throughout but to weakend in the run-in. No Planning is now rated 122. Alan Swinbank's Tricksofthetrade, who was already a bumper winner before that close 3rd behind Find A Key in April, easily won his first start over hurdles at Sedgefield at the end of April (7L ahead of the second) and has been rated 108 after that solo start over hurdles. He has never raced again over hurdles since. Nicky Hammond's Sinfield was another bumper winner before that loss against Find A Key and is rated 108 on NHF. Never raced since that race in April. All in all surely a pretty solid form from that bumper boosted especially by No Planning. Nicky Richards is having a good season (20 winner plus 50 more placements with 120 runners for a solid 17% winning strike rate in 2011-12 in jumping racings). The trainer from Greystoke saddled 4 runners in 2012, all ridden by Dougie Costello, and they finished 3rd, 2nd, 6th and the last one won at Catterick 5 days ago. He has had 3 runners during 2011-12 season at Ayr and two of them won and both were ridden by Dougie Costello who is two from two when riding for Nicky Richards at the course this season, for a profit of £2.73. Dougie Costello has ridden 31 winners so far this season (4 in the last week) and has a 100% record at this track this season (with the two above mentioned horses trained by Richards). Surely stats you'd like to have on your side. The main rivals of Find A Key are two: Cadore (Evens favourite atm) and Lexi's Boy (10/3 atm). Cadore was decent on flat (rated up to 75 when in training with Peter Chapple-Hyam in 2011) and had his first ever start over hurdles 21 days ago when second at Wetherby 2 1/2L behind the favourite Mica Mika. A decent debut over hurdles behind a horse that has got a mark of 115 after that win. The horse trained by Lucinda Russell can surely improve but at this price I'd better oppose him today in what looks a tougher test than his debut (the other horses in that race finished well behind and all of them look very poor quality jumpers at the moment). Lucinda Russell saddled 2 winners and 2 seconds with her last 5 runners but none of them but Stormion has shown special improvements from their previous ratings/outs and she is almost loca at this track and has a decent record at Ayr with 2 winners saddling 8 runners during the last 6 months. All in all good chances for Cadore today but far from being an Evens money shot imho. Lexi's Boy had a good career on AW winning 4 times in 6 races and being rated up to 82 when entered for the Edinburgh Cup (12f Class 2 at Musselburgh 7 months ago) where he was 7th of 9 finishing 9 3/4L behind the winner Eternal Heart and 8 3/4L behind Mica Mika who won last time out (second start over hurdles) beating Cadore as written above. Lexi's Boy joined Donald McCain's yard 4 months ago (was trained by Kevin Ryan until he started his jumping training) and was sent off 6/5 favourite in October when making his debut over hurdles at Kelso in a race won by the ex-Italian trained Kie (50/1) 13L ahead of Mica Mika (11/4 that day) who went on winning his next start beating Cadore as written above. Lexi's Boy costed 60,000gns when bought for his new jumping career and probably had worked pretty well at home to deserve such a huge support in the market that day but the grey, after chasing the leader early, went out like a light after the fourth and presumably something was amiss. After a 107-day break the horse should be fine and he will get a lot of respect on the market being the representative of such a big yard (McCain enjoys a 28% winning strake over the last 5 years at this track but had 0 winners so far this season) but I like more the chances of my selection at a similar price at the moment (odds that are going to be probably even slightly better before the start imho).

[skylark2009]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012 3.00 Folkestone - Just Josie - She will need to improve a lot today for her win last time out as she has been raised 9lb's and is in a higher class of race today. She is a course/distance winner and if reproducing her form last time out could go well again today. Quazy De Joie looks to be too high in the ratings and may need to drop further judging from his latest races, Qualypso D'Allier hasn't been out for 446 days and may need the run. Causing Chaos is probably the best of the remaining three runners and they all seem to be out of form.

2.00 Folkestone: Just Josie - 1pt win @ 5/2 PaddyPower (BOG)

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012 2.10 Ayr: Allanard 1pt (3/1 Bet365) Was going to put up Cadore in the opener but i'm not keen on Juveniles taking on older horses at this time of year so will go with Allanard in the handicap chase which is a more exposed race formwise. Kicked off this season with a 3rd to Wide Reciever who has gone on to win twice since. Was run off his feet when tried back over a shorter trip next time and then ran a good race at Catterick when tired close home in the soft ground. This should be ideal and has dropped a couple of pounds and has James Reveley to assist from the saddle. Looks a fair bet at 3/1.

[switzerland]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012 Umadachar 4.00 Folkestone 1pt Win 6/4 Boyles Not a great days racing so I'll take a chance on Umadachar in the Mares bumper. She has only had the one run but that was a promising effort when she was well backed and finished second. She is back against her own sex today which should make things a little easier. Stable have a good record in bumpers and I just prefer her form to that of her main market rival Weather Babe. Umadachar has the beating of Kabira based on her last run and Grace and Fortune was nothing special when last seen (although she could improve for the run). The rest are all newcomers so it doesn't look a very strong race on paper and if Umadachar shows natural improvement from her first outing she could be hard to beat.

[twinny]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012 0.5 e/w mattoral 13.30 folkstone 40/1 bet365 with an odds on fav im going to aim for one of the other places in this now 8 runner contest and mattoral could well fit the bill,mattoral had been running in 1mile 4 contests or less untill last time were it was 2 miles plus similar to today,5th of 15 last time but was its 1st time out since august,so could come on from that run only 13 days ago,40/1 has gone now 33/1 bluesquare

[twinny]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012

0.5 e/w mattoral 13.30 folkstone 40/1 bet365 with an odds on fav im going to aim for one of the other places in this now 8 runner contest and mattoral could well fit the bill,mattoral had been running in 1mile 4 contests or less untill last time were it was 2 miles plus similar to today,5th of 15 last time but was its 1st time out since august,so could come on from that run only 13 days ago,40/1 has gone now 33/1 bluesquare

lol now a non runner doh:wall thats why the 40/1 went

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012 1.30 Folkestone - 1pt win Swaninstockwell @ 8/1 (PP) Going to take on the short-price favourite here with an each-way bet who would unlikely be 9/1 if with a bigger trainer than Pat Phelan. Very modest on the flat, this horse did show some ability at a lowly level before a poor couple of runs before he was sent over hurdles. Given little chance at 80/1, he stayed on well when many others were very tired to take 3rd in a novice race that has worked out well. He is the half-brother to a hurdle winner and looks capable of picking up a race himself. Proved he has the stamina for this when 3rd to a classy horse in Double Ross with yesterday's 5l winner Henry San in 2nd. His weight obviously helped him get involved that day in deep ground but it was a very encouraging effort and one he's sure to come on from. The yard's last two horses have won well and this might be the horse to put it to the favourite.

[mowgli77]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012 Watergate 2pm Folkestone - SP Initial pick is a non runner and I felt this was next best and would appreciate the ground, even with the overnight frost possibly hardening it up. Ran with credit twice already and has top weight to beat but that has disappointed a few times and lost by a fair distance.

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012 3.10 Ayr Accordingtoscript - form to date has been moderate but is expected to leave it behind now handicapping and looks on a fair mark. Yard had recent winner. Most of oppositon have something to prove. 1 pt win

[fosterbet5]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012 mines an N/R so im going to take a punt at ayr AYR 15:40 SOMETHING SILVER 4/1 ladbrokes something if a course specialist and runs here regualry usualy performing well . can handle the ground and class . this is a small feild with a decent chance of placing . very low in the weights should help his chance greatly , was predicted to go off favourite

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012 UMUDACHAR 4.00 Folkestone. 1 point win. Showed enough on debut to suggest he can take this with the normal amount of improvement. Nothing should improve more than the ordinary, so one to beat it looks like and with being slightly more unexposed than Weather Babe, we should take all the beating. Trip and ground appears fine and so anything above evens would be a go for me. 7/4 Bet365 BOG

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012

*Malin Head - Folkestone 3:30* Has no form on offer, has a point win to its name but is having its handicap debut and chase debut tomorrow for Bob Buckler and gets in off a leniant mark of 73. Was 50/1, 100/1 and 100/1 on its only three starts to date to see it as now an 8/1 shot, i feel they are expecting a lot more improvement fron the horse tomorrow. Mr Buckler had a winner on 2nd January with Double Dizzy so he is in ok nick and Andrew Glassonbury is 2/16 at Folkestone. *1 Point WIN @ 8/1 VC BOG*

Gamble landed :beer

[kev2oo9]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012 4.10 Ayr - Indian Oasis ew 25/1 bet365 Form of win in bumper of Howaboutnow imo isnt that strong as is ptp form and similar comments apply to lucinda russels but could end up with egg on my face, one iv choosen is the Alan Brown trained Indian Oasis , related to winners on flat around 8f+ and also over middle to longer distances such as Agglestone Rock who was also a good stayer on flat and went on to run in both spheres. brown never had a bumper winner but only sent 12 out in last 5 years and Mcgrath 1/3 on stables horses My uncle jack looks a live outsider due to professional on board rather than amateur

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012

Gamble landed :beer

Sure was mate. Well done on Yes Tom also.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012

Sure was mate. Well done on Yes Tom also.

Ahhhhh Bisto. Had a nice wee touch on Ferdy's runner in the 3:40 but went for glory by posting his first runner here on BBOTD. Great work fella. :notworthy

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 17th Jan 2012

Ahhhhh Bisto. Had a nice wee touch on Ferdy's runner in the 3:40 but went for glory by posting his first runner here on BBOTD. Great work fella. :notworthy

You were on the Ockey Jimmy? :lol Speaking of Bisto, i have the granules awaiting my mashed potato coming up. :nana Fresh pollock (caught myself), fresh veg, mash, gravy and tartar sauce. BISTO! Cheers