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Germany - Bundesliga II - 2-5 December

ultravires

By ultravires
in German Football Predictions

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ultravires

ultravires

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Friday 2 December 2011 Home Draw Away BPP
maximize.gif 1. FC Union Berlin v Energie Cottbus (17:00 GMT) 2.02 3.7 4.2 100.34 %
maximize.gif FC Ingolstadt 04 v Eintracht Braunschweig (17:00 GMT) 2.9 3.55 2.64 100.53 %
maximize.gif SC Paderborn 07 v FC St. Pauli (17:00 GMT) 2.86 3.5 2.7 100.57 %
Saturday 3 December 2011 Home Draw Away BPP
maximize.gif Eintracht Frankfurt v Karlsruher SC (12:00 GMT) 1.3 6.2 13 100.74 %
maximize.gif SpVgg Greuther Fürth v Hansa Rostock (12:00 GMT) 1.4 4.8 10.5 101.79 %
Sunday 4 December 2011 Home Draw Away BPP
maximize.gif Alemannia Aachen v TSV 1860 München (12:30 GMT) 2.6 3.45 2.84 102.66 %
maximize.gif Dynamo Dresden v FSV Frankfurt (12:30 GMT) 2 3.75 4.2 100.48 %
maximize.gif VfL Bochum v FC Erzgebirge Aue (12:30 GMT) 1.84 3.6 5 102.13 %
Monday 5 December 2011 Home Draw Away BPP
maximize.gif MSV Duisburg v Fortuna Düsseldorf (19:15 GMT) 3.4 3.67 2.33 99.58 %
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Capricorno

Capricorno

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Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 2-5 December 2 plays for tonight St.Pauli DnB @ 1.88 - 7 units Braunschweig DnB @ 1.87 - 4 units More detailed Write up to follow. St.Pauli simply have risen to every big game and will be pushing to shove Paderborn out of the promotion race. Much better individual quality on a player-to-player basis, which shows in crunch games such as this one tonight. St. Pauli will win the battle in midfield and have more posession, where it counts. St.Pauli should win or draw at worst. Very confident about this bet. This St.Pauli team has risen to every big occasion including the recent Norhtern derby against Rostock. Hence, the 7 point bet. Braunschweig- once again more consisent and look far more confident on the ball then Ingolstadt. Also, their off the ball movement is far better and they tend to track back often , which the lazy Ingolstadt players are poor at. This is is pure value with the draw cover. Since, Ingolstadt may sneak a 0-0 here. I still believe that Ingolstadt has one of the weakest squads plus poor discipline on the field. Also a 2 unit multi on the two.... since there is full draw cover on both

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Benny1887

Benny1887

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Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 2-5 December Germany Bundesliga 2 - 02.12.2011: SC Paderborn 07 - St Pauli http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/germany/2-bundesliga-2011-2012/paderborn-st-pauli-806345/#ah;2 St Pauli (+0) Odds: 1.86 (IbcBet) Stake: 5/10 Match between two times of the magic top five in which Paderborn will host against St Pauli. Still, I see that Paderborn overperforms extremely and it will be only a matter of time until they will suffer from a losing streak. Started as relegation canidate number one, they played a fantastic season so far with mainly unknown players and an unknown manager. But they recognisably showed a down trend during the past few weeks. Paderborn got only a 2:2 last week in Frankfurt where they were even close to lose it and keep in mind that Frankfurt is the most pathetic home team in Germany. The week before they got a lucky and even undeserved 2:1 at home against Karlsruhe. Karlsruhe are the poorest travellers of the league but they missed a penalty as well as many good goalscoring opportunities and Paderborn won through a last minute goal. One week earlier they collapsed 4:0 against top team Greuther Furth in the national cup. The week before they won 2:0 in Cottbus with 2 shots and 2 goals - nice statistic. I think you see where I drive at with writing this. They have a lot of bad luck and their results are better than their performances. Fair rank for them would be something between 8 and 10 I guess and Pauli is the team with clearly much more quality. Also it is mentionable that finally Pauli's best striker Marius Ebbers returned after his injury. He is so vital for them because he is the only poacher in the whole squad, actually the only striker of St Pauli who is able to score 15 goals + in one season. A few defenders returned as well, hence the situation in the squad improved a lot. Pauli is my favourite team away from home this season due to a simple reason. Manager Schubert (who has formerly worked in Paderborn for several years by the way) is known for appreciating good tactical behaviour. Still I do not like their defence so much but it is okay at least. But most important is their perfect counter ability. No team in the league - not even Greuther Furth who are actually known as the best counter team in this league - is able to display such great counter attacking. Howsoever Pauli is my favourite away team in this season and one of the few exceptions of teams who do better away than at home. So what will we see tonight? The suprise team of the league which clearly had a downtrend in their performances as well as clearly lower quality vs the perhaps even best travellers of the league with many vital players returning. Level ball is brilliant here. Paderborn needs 100% improvement to have a chance to get a victory. But I do not see this happening. Maybe they were able to beat the most pathetic team of the league (Karlsruhe) at home with tons of luck and a late goal but for sure Pauli is one class stronger. It will be extremely hard for Paderborn here, level ball on Pauli is brilliant because there is some draw danger but I actually see Pauli winning this due to clearly more quality and because they are such good travellers.

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totse

totse

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Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 2-5 December

Sport Football (Germany)
Event Bayer Leverkusen - Hoffenheim
Selection over 3.5
Strength 10/10
Date 02/12/2011
Bookmaker/Price Stan James @ 3.10
Reasoning Bayer Leverkusen are sitting on a sixth place, they couldn't miss anymore easy points if they want to reach champions league spot again. Leverkusen drew last two home games, but I think this team will be hot today after they defeat Chelsea 2-1 in last home game and qualify to the next stage at champions league. Leverkusen record two big over in last three games at Bundesliga, 2-2 home draw with Hambruger, 3-3 away draw with Herta in last match who the played at all. On the other hand Hoffenheim is not in so good, but they have Ryan Babel and Firmino in their squad that makes them very dangerous. Hoffenheim should stop their loosing strike on the road, they may use that Levekusen were not so strong at home scoring few goals that for sure makes this game over.
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Wolflord

Wolflord

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Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 2-5 December

Another disgusting win for Paderborn comming up. 2k down the drain.. they get one chance they score. Could feel it :puke:puke
Agree with you there mate. They are quite effective, really annoying. But the match isn't over though ;)
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Benny1887

Benny1887

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Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 2-5 December FT 1:1 +/- 0.00 u Pauli with the equaliser in the last second of the game. Again after a free kick cross like their 2:1 in Rostock. But it was more than deserved all in all. Paderborn took the lead with the half time whistle although Pauli had the better chances before. In second half it was a bit like handball because Paderborn defended so deep. Pauli did not have many chances but Naki should have equalised in the 87th minute when he missed the empty goal. Then, the 1:1 with the last second of the game. Draw was their fair result here in the end of the day.

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Benny1887

Benny1887

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Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 2-5 December Germany Bundesliga 2 - 03.12.2011: Greuther Furth - Hansa Rostock http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/germany/2-bundesliga-2011-2012/greuther-furth-hansa-rostock-806341/#ah;2 Greuther Furth (-1.25) Odds: 1.88 (PinnacleSports) Stake: 5/10 I think that Rostock does not have a snowball's chance in hell today when they will travel to Furth. Rostock is the most pathetic side of the league which lately showed a very poor development. They have really become worse week after week. In the early stages of the season their defence was still okay and they were able to create goalscoring chances. But due to injuries and their lack of self confidence, they became worse with every week. They meanwhile have a non-existing defence which does tons of mistakes as well as an offensive which is clearly the worst one of the league. A suprising thing is that manager Vollmann has not been sacked after the pathetic 2:5 at home against Berlin. It seemed that the players played against Vollmann. However it is Vollmann's own fault as well. He suspended player Kevin Pannewitz due to disciplinary reasons although he should have actually known that Pannewitz is maybe their best player. Fans did not understand that either and when Pannewitz was suspended, they said that this was the biggest mistake of Vollmann. The next big problem is that their only offensive player with quality, Mohammed Lartey, will still miss this game with injury. He was the only player who was able to create some danger in front of the opposing goal earlier in this season but since he sustained his injury, the whole offensive is dead. Nevertheless I must admit that I do not like Furth so much. I can not remember when they showed their last convincing performance over 90 minutes BUT in fact they are clearly the most clinical side of the league. Even in Dusseldorf on Monday where they lost the top clash 2:1, they used their first chance to score. But we can not talk about luck anymore because it is always the same with them at home. Good examples where their recent home matches against Frankfurt (4:0) and Aue (2:0). In both matches, Aue and Frankfurt had the first two chances but they did not use them due to a lack of callousness. Then, Furth always scored through their first chance in the game because they were so patient. Afterwards, they created several good opportunities because the opposing side will not defend so deep anymore. As it is a matter of common knowledge, Furth is the best counter team of the league together with Pauli. This means that it is actually impossible that they will win by 1 goal only. This is the reason why I always like -1.25 lines on Furth at home against shit teams a lot. Another really positive point here is that Büskens announced to make a few changes. Likely that Pektürk will move in who is one of my favourite players to replace Sararer or Schröck. Both recently made a tired impression and I am sure that Pektürk would use his chance. Making 1-2 changes would be a very good decision. Next positive point are Furth's quick wingers who will easily take advantage of Rostock's slowness. Rostock has extremely tall and therefore slow players like Kostal, Holst, Peitz, etc in their defence who rather prefer to defend against teams which prefer crosses, long balls and so on. But for sure Furth will use their short passing play which should be quite succesful here. To make a long story short, Furth almost always cover their -1.25 handicap at home. Also Rostock is in a horrible club situation (they are likely to have a ghost game soon due to hooligan problems), their manager will be sacked after a defeat today, their 2 best players are still out and their form is extremely bad. Hence I am sure that Furth will win this one clearly and likely keep their clean sheet against Rostock's joke offensive. I think that 3:0 or 4:0 are likely outcomes.

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Batig0l

Batig0l

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Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 2-5 December Great stuff once again Benny! I simply bet on Furth to win, but also put a bet on a Furth clean sheet... again based upon your summary. The odds on a Furth clean sheet were very good in fact. So I've definitely made a profit, and possibly a bigger profit, depending on the last 15 minutes. Thanks again Benny! :clap

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Benny1887

Benny1887

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Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 2-5 December Yes, 3:0 as expected. Typical Furth home match. FT 3:0 + 4.40 u Match was as expected. Furth did not play brilliant but they were the clearly better team from minute 1 until minute 90. Very comfortable one, I think that Rostock had zero shots on target in the whole match, they patently are the most pathetic team of the league at the moment.

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Benny1887

Benny1887

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Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 2-5 December Originally I took @1.94 +0.75 @IBC .. to prove: b100599df664d31a07890d63b7d7ec5a.png Odds are correct now, hence no more value. Sharing preview and tip anyway, maybe you can wait live and take Aue if they are one back or if odds should raise in running. Germany Bundesliga 2 - 04.12.2011: VfL Bochum - Erzgebirge Aue http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/germany/2-bundesliga-2011-2012/bochum-aue-806340/#ah;2 Erzgebirge Aue (+0.75) Odds: 1.80 (Ibcbet) Stake: 5/10 With one exception, Aue's away performances in this season have been really strong and even stronger than their home displays. The one exception was the 1:0 defeat in Paderborn when they were tired because they played in the national cup against a Bundesliga side 3 days earlier. Besides, they are an extremely tough nut to crack because their fast counter breaks work very well on the road. For instance Aue got a 2:1 in Dresden two weeks ago where they made 35 or 40 shots in the whole match which was a new all-time record. Before they lost 2:0 in Greuther Furth but it was an unlucky result for them since Furth had some referee luck and are anyway one of the best sides in this league. Before, they got an amazing 3:2 in St Pauli were they showed the most impressing display since 2 years (according to manager Schmitt). Not enough for you? One week earlier they got a 1:1 in Braunschweig against the team which just smashed Bochum 4:0 at home. Also there, Aue showed a fantastic display. Also they got a 1:1 in FSV Frankfurt where they hit the woodwork 4 or 5 times (also a new all-time record). With writing this, I just want to make you clear that they are an extremely tough nut to crack in away matches. They play with huge passion, always maximal effort and their wings with Hochscheidt, Kempe and Kocer are more than strong. Last week they indeed suffered from a last minute defeat at home against Duisburg but their display was okay and generally they do better away than at home in this season so far. Most impressing with Aue is their maximal effort and passion in each game, also they have an almost perfect ball winning ability due to their great attitude. Another mentionable thing is that best defender Adli Lachheb as well as vital backup Marcl Hensel will return after their suspensions! And now they will travel to Bochum, the team which was humilated in Braunschweig on Sunday and which lost at home against the pathetic side Cottbus. Started as a promotion favourite, their season is already screwed and the new manager effect of Bergmann who came roughly 2 months ago has already disappeared as well. Their home crowd is extremely poor as well, today a new all-time low of less than 10.000 visitors is expected. Weather will not be really good either which is an advantage for Aue because Bochum is the better football team which hence needs better conditions. But what did Bochum show at home so far? Nothing! Two last second victories against pathetic FSV Frankfurt as well as against Duisburg who were in a horrible shape back then. Besides another lucky 1:0 at home against poor Aachen who missed a penalty in the last second of the game. And besides they lost everything! Bochum has two great individual players, the Asians Takashi Inui and Jong Tae-Se. But Tae-Se is out of form for a longer time and he is a very erratic player who will probably not like to play against Aue's defenders who have such a strong ball winning ability combined with bad weather conditions. Still Inui is one of the best players in this league I must admit, his technical ability is brilliant but he is also one of these players who are too inconstant. To sum up, a 0.75 line is no way justified in my eyes. Aue are very strong travellers in this season and they did not lose against several top teams like Braunschweig and St Pauli. Also their last away display in Dresden was very impressing stuff whereas Bochum's season is screwed and after 2 consecutive pathetic displays and in front of a little home crowd, motivation will be bad as well. Aue is full-strength and in a good shape, hence I expect a very balanced match.

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DestinedWinner

DestinedWinner

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Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 2-5 December I'm not here to start anything. Apologize if I sound like a douchebag, but I'm going to say what everyone else has in their mind. Benny obviously knows this league inside out, but what's the point of sharing this information literally 3 minutes before the tipoff? I mean he obviously has everything written down.. just can't copy and paste like fifteen minutes earlier? He obviously has a 'hidden' agenda (don't really think it's hidden at all) to make people come to his blog and buy his picks... Nevertheless, nice write up. GL on your pick.

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Benny1887

Benny1887

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Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 2-5 December Hi, it would be unfair for those who pay me if they would see that all informations are in forums for free anyway. Most of paid services do not even share tips for free and I do it and everyone who wants to follow can do so if he opens this thread 5 mins before kick-off given that odds didnt drop too much like today.

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SgtTr

SgtTr

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Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 2-5 December

I'm not here to start anything. Apologize if I sound like a douchebag, but I'm going to say what everyone else has in their mind. Benny obviously knows this league inside out, but what's the point of sharing this information literally 3 minutes before the tipoff? I mean he obviously has everything written down.. just can't copy and paste like fifteen minutes earlier? He obviously has a 'hidden' agenda (don't really think it's hidden at all) to make people come to his blog and buy his picks... Nevertheless, nice write up. GL on your pick.
You can still bet in play if you think the write ups are too close to the start of the matches.
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H_E_M_P_E_S

H_E_M_P_E_S

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Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 2-5 December

Why you didn't share before the game? But you are lucky' date=' the lead is absolutely undeserved .. fair score would be 0:0 or 0:1 but 2:0 is ridicolous just now.[/quote'] I dont have a info....I bet on him because last time they dont win at home...I wait for profit only and they lost...
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Benny1887

Benny1887

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Re: Germany - Bundesliga II - 2-5 December

Originally I took @1.94 +0.75 @IBC .. to prove: b100599df664d31a07890d63b7d7ec5a.png Odds are correct now, hence no more value. Sharing preview and tip anyway, maybe you can wait live and take Aue if they are one back or if odds should raise in running. Germany Bundesliga 2 - 04.12.2011: VfL Bochum - Erzgebirge Aue http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/germany/2-bundesliga-2011-2012/bochum-aue-806340/#ah;2 Erzgebirge Aue (+0.75) Odds: 1.80 (Ibcbet) Stake: 5/10 With one exception, Aue's away performances in this season have been really strong and even stronger than their home displays. The one exception was the 1:0 defeat in Paderborn when they were tired because they played in the national cup against a Bundesliga side 3 days earlier. Besides, they are an extremely tough nut to crack because their fast counter breaks work very well on the road. For instance Aue got a 2:1 in Dresden two weeks ago where they made 35 or 40 shots in the whole match which was a new all-time record. Before they lost 2:0 in Greuther Furth but it was an unlucky result for them since Furth had some referee luck and are anyway one of the best sides in this league. Before, they got an amazing 3:2 in St Pauli were they showed the most impressing display since 2 years (according to manager Schmitt). Not enough for you? One week earlier they got a 1:1 in Braunschweig against the team which just smashed Bochum 4:0 at home. Also there, Aue showed a fantastic display. Also they got a 1:1 in FSV Frankfurt where they hit the woodwork 4 or 5 times (also a new all-time record). With writing this, I just want to make you clear that they are an extremely tough nut to crack in away matches. They play with huge passion, always maximal effort and their wings with Hochscheidt, Kempe and Kocer are more than strong. Last week they indeed suffered from a last minute defeat at home against Duisburg but their display was okay and generally they do better away than at home in this season so far. Most impressing with Aue is their maximal effort and passion in each game, also they have an almost perfect ball winning ability due to their great attitude. Another mentionable thing is that best defender Adli Lachheb as well as vital backup Marcl Hensel will return after their suspensions! And now they will travel to Bochum, the team which was humilated in Braunschweig on Sunday and which lost at home against the pathetic side Cottbus. Started as a promotion favourite, their season is already screwed and the new manager effect of Bergmann who came roughly 2 months ago has already disappeared as well. Their home crowd is extremely poor as well, today a new all-time low of less than 10.000 visitors is expected. Weather will not be really good either which is an advantage for Aue because Bochum is the better football team which hence needs better conditions. But what did Bochum show at home so far? Nothing! Two last second victories against pathetic FSV Frankfurt as well as against Duisburg who were in a horrible shape back then. Besides another lucky 1:0 at home against poor Aachen who missed a penalty in the last second of the game. And besides they lost everything! Bochum has two great individual players, the Asians Takashi Inui and Jong Tae-Se. But Tae-Se is out of form for a longer time and he is a very erratic player who will probably not like to play against Aue's defenders who have such a strong ball winning ability combined with bad weather conditions. Still Inui is one of the best players in this league I must admit, his technical ability is brilliant but he is also one of these players who are too inconstant. To sum up, a 0.75 line is no way justified in my eyes. Aue are very strong travellers in this season and they did not lose against several top teams like Braunschweig and St Pauli. Also their last away display in Dresden was very impressing stuff whereas Bochum's season is screwed and after 2 consecutive pathetic displays and in front of a little home crowd, motivation will be bad as well. Aue is full-strength and in a good shape, hence I expect a very balanced match.
FT 6:0 - 5.00 u Corners: 5 - 7 Shots: 15 - 15 Ball possession: 48% - 52% Score: 6 -0 Sometimes everything is against you on one day. Today it was such a today. Bochum scored early through an own goal, then Aue had two excellet chances to equalise but Bochum converted a counter attack as well as they smashed a free kick from crazy distance into the goal. Immediately after the restart, Bochum smashed another crazy distance shot into the goal. Then Aue gave up and still conceded 2 more goals. Still I have to live with it .. I had 8 won picks in a row in 2. Bundesliga and my last losing pick was more than 2 weeks ago. Season still fantastic with 20% yield, hence I do not worry at all although this was a kick in the teeth today. Tommorow game looks interesting, I will post my idea tommorow in the evening.
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