BBOTD Thursday 17th of November

[Aidymac]

Daldini - Market Rasen 2:20 Belted off in front last time out and looked a sure winner a few furlongs out, only to be reeled in by stablemate Work Boy, and traded at a low of 1.10 in running! Similar tactics tomorrow under a better jockey Henry Oliver and may go off in front again but will hopefully be given a small breather half a mile out and i think it will be hard to catch going for home. Jonathon England rode last time out. Step up in trip should be fine is given a slightly more patient ride and is now 16 pounds lower than its last winning mark, even if it has gone up in the weights. Sue Smith is in good form and i feel this horse must go close tomorrow. WIN @ 9/2 Bet65 BOG

[Petersson1984]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November 14:30 Hereford Doeslessthanme Win (2,88) Boylesports The 7 year old gelding, looked strong, when winning his first chase victory last month. It was his first win under Nicholls, but nopefully not his last. Doeslessthanme runs of a career high 134 mark. His latest win was by 3 1/2l, so he might be able, to over come it. The slightly soft going, seems to suit Doeslessthanme well. 5 of his 6 wins, was at a simular going. Doeslessthanme recent form. 6-2-0-1-1 The jockey Darly Jacob was booked, for the recent win too. He got a decent form aswell, winning 21,88 % of his runs whitin, the last 14 days.

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November Kenton Street (0.5ew 12-1 BET365 BOG) Has been racing over 8f recently, but 7f is probably his best trip, as evidenced by a head second over CD in Jan. Runs off 1lb lower than that in this race, with John Fahy taking off an additional 3lb. Took 27(!) runs to get off the mark, but since then has twice been runner-up and once come in third, and his career A-W form over 7f is 2-5-4-1-2. Irish trainer Michael J. Browne has a great strike rate with his A-W raiders (2 wins and 3 seconds from 9 runners), so 12-1 seems too big.

[LJD]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November Main Focus - Kempton 5.50 This horse won it's maiden on it's first and only run on the all weather over course and distance three races ago. This was in June and the horse hasn't won since but the soft ground was probably the problem last time out at Ffos las. William Buick has a good 30% strike rate at Kempton for the trainer (John Gosden) so hopefully he will give this horse a good shot. Main Focus E/W @ 17/2 Victor Chandler

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November 2.20 Market Rasen Mirage Dore win 6/1 Boylesports This horse was a comfortable winner in a beginners chase over CD last year on his only start at the track. He looks to have a solid chance in this race after having 2 runs since returning from a break. Those 2 runs should have put him spot on for this and this is an easier race than that of which he contested last time out. The trainer had a winner the other day and is 1 from 3 at the track. He should have no problem with the ground and a big run looks on the cards.

[wistful]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November 1.05 Wincanton, Heir To Be 0.5 points each way at 14/1 Paddy Power, BOG. Heir To Be is 12 years old and is 10 lbs higher than when winning here in October, so his chance is far from obvious. However he really likes it round here. His form figures over hurdles at Wincanton is P112. (The P was back in 2006). His second here was last month under a 9lb penalty. He was beaten comfortably by 10 L by My Brother Sylvester but had the 3rd comfortably 9 L back in 3rd. After defeating the selection at Wincanton, My Brother Sylvester, off a 7lb higher mark, went on to win his next race comfortably, at Haydock, wining by 4.5 L eased down and completing a three timer in the process. He is clearly progressive. Take My Brother Sylvester out of his last Wincanton race and Heir To Be's hurdle course form improves to P111. At 14/1 he looks worth a decent each way chance.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November 1:40 Wincanton - Rith Bob - Back Only 3 go to post here but it looks like Regs Ruby is ip against it here on ratings and weights and therefore it effectively looks a 2 horse race between How's Business and Rith Bob. How's business has the highest rating of the 2 but he's been off the track for a monumental 929 days, an absence that will be extremely hard to overcome no matter how good he used to be. Rith Bob, on the other hand, should be cherry rip for this having won 13 days ago. He's had a near fortnight break since that which should be perfect recovery time for him to pick up from where he left off. He annihilated Silver Gypsy lto who is a horse who connections rate really highly, and given he himself beat the 3rd that day by 38 lengths, I wouldn't assume (as the first reaction would be when he was beaten at 8/15) that he underperformed. I think it was more to do with the fact that Rith Bob jumped and travelled like a dream and was simply too good for Silver Gypsy. He looked a horse with plenty if potential that day did Rith Bob and I see no reason for him not to go in again here 1pt win @ SP

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November 4:20 Kempton - Ereka - 1pt @ 5/1 (Bet365) This is an awful contest and certainly not one for big stakes but Ereka should prove to be a lively contender for John Best on what is just her second outing for the yard. She's still a maiden after 12 contests but shaped very encouragingly when sent off as a 20/1 shot at Wolverhampton over this 7f trip last time out. I don't particularly like horses being held up in rear around there and due to a poor draw, she also had to sit wide throughout. Given all of this being against her, the resulting running-on 1 length 3rd place that she achieved was ultra-encouraging on the back of a 2 month break (stayed on strongly on the back of a very good pace, which she never usually does) and she looks capable of building on it here. Being a Class 7 race, this represents a drop in grade for Ereka and I'm really struggling to find anything to oppose her with if the race is run properly at all (lack of pace a worry). The fact she's much better drawn today from stall 6 is another plus and I'm hopeful that connections will decide to make a lot more use of her, as they just couldn't last time out. That run did prove that she's capable of winning a lowly race though and today could be the day, with a little bit of luck of course. Ereka has run fairly well here before (on the back of a long lay-off) and with improvement to be found being quite likely for her new yard, I feel she's fully deserving of being the favourite here. 5/1 is quite an attractive price about her but purely down to the nature of the race and the possibility that she won't give a similar running again (due to a possible lack of pace ruining her chance), I'll just play small/medium win stakes and hope for the best. She's definitely one to keep on the right side of - as despite being such a moderately talented animal, she has a win in her off her current rating on this surface.

[beaker1]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November 2-15 thurles -aupcharlie -win very well bred and has its 1st run over hurdles today,but as strong bumper form in the book finishing third to cheltenian in the champion bumper at cheltenham last march,then went on to finish seventh to lovethehigherlaw at punchestown in the grade 1 champion nh flat race and that form is better than anything else in this race.ok i know its an hurdle race and not a nh flat race but he his with the top class trainer in willie mullins who really does no the time of the day and even though hes been off for 256 days he should be good enought to win this on debut but win or lose today i believe he will be a horse to follow in the future

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November 1.05 Wincanton Calico Rose would have done much better lto if she hadn't made a mess of the last and this extra distance should be right up her street. Stable in tremendous form and may try and win from the front, if cutting out the mistakes she should win this. 1 Pt win 4/1 bet365

[twinny]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November 0.5e/w teals star 12.45 market rasen 25/1 boyle sports with 2 short priced favs i think this might be about grabbing 3rd place for my e/w bet and teals star is certanly capable of that if it can reproduce anywere near its best run were it finished 2nd of 8 in a class 4 race in june that day it was a 66/1 shot and had a 9/4 shot 7 lenghts behind it,i have doubts about the second fav sertao who hasnt run for 261 days,for bbotd 0.5 e/w but for my own betting will be doing a twist fc with the odds on fav kings lodge,a forcast 16/1 shot with sporting the 25/1 on offer is decent and the 42 on betfair is more than generouse

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November 14:20 Market Rasen The market may tell the full story to the chances of KELLYSTOWN LAD but I think he has solid claims here even if running off top-weight in a competitive looking race. Trained by Ferdy Murphy, he was consistent, if not a bit disappointing over hurdles but has shaped much better as a chaser even though he only has one victory to his name. That was in an ordinary novices event at Sedgefield last year over 2m4f and he really shaped that day that he’d want further, which he gets today. Since that success he hadn’t been in the greatest form in some generally tough races, although his run at Ascot over 2m3f three starts ago back in January was eye-catching to say the least, making a ton of ground up in the closing stages. He was still well-beaten but definitely shaped that the further he goes, the better he’ll get. This was emphasised last time when running in a Carlisle ‘intermediate’ chase, and at the weights he didn’t have a chance and although beaten 25 lengths, showed promise that he could handle his current handicap mark. Alongside this, Ferdy Murphy’s always come on for the run and he was in his typical early-season slump, alongside the ground possibly being too soft for him in a race so competitive, thus the effort needs marking up a notch or two. This race on paper looks a fairly competitive one although on a deeper look, most have questions to answer, either on fitness or current form and I don’t think there’s much depth to it. When looking through the race I couldn’t see anything that has the potential to be better than his mark, apart from this fellow. It may be that 3 miles is his ideal trip and this 2m6f trip is a little on the sharp-side, but he may just get away with it today as there’s at least five runners who have set the pace before and I’m expecting a decent pace. It’ll be a strong test of the trip and this should play into the hands of Kellystown Lad. Ferdy Murphy has his string somewhat back in form, the drying ground isn’t an issue and I think this one has the potential to be rated around 135 at around this distance. Whether today is a going day remains to be seen but at 10/1, I’ll take my chance that it is. KELLYSTOWN LAD; 2pts @ 10/1 Bet365 (bog)

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November Market Rasen 2.20 Le Burf win - 5/1 Fred Lads At the prices available last night he would've been a bigger bet, but has been gambled and 5s is short enough. Finally Liam Treadwell has been jocked off him and he'll have a proper rider on board. On old form he will hose up here and judging by the market move, he's probably ready to do so. Still worth a small nibble I reckon.

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November H12.55 Cider Lolly 0.5pt E/W 50/1 Blue Square This is a field full of very moderate horses and as such, it might pay to side with one making its handicap debut with a view to it not having shown its true ability as yet to enter off a reasonable mark. The trainer is much better known for his flat sprinters but does suprirsingly well over NH and his last runner was placed at 125/1. The jockey is good value for his 5lb claim and the horse isn't a big price on the exchanges (yet!) which sometimes indicates that its not a complete no hoper.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November 320 MR: Roxane Bruere 1pt 11/4 Bet365 Think this one has a very solid chance, Robin Dickins horses are running well and has the assistance of one of the better lady jockeys in this race. Was second at Ludlow on his second run and now should be spot on, due to go up in the weights but races here of a very lenient mark.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November Jockey - J.Maquire makes the journey today for one ride for trainer K.Bailey. The 4yr old filly could be anything and today is her first time on the track. Unsure on trip and ground but i'll take a punt as i can't see J.Maquire making the trip unless threre was a possability of some take home pay. Market Watch. Hereford 4pm - Bonne Free. 0.5 e/w bet 14/1 most firms Hills and Lads etc etc. Enjoy yur day, at ease.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November 1255 hereford bazart 1pt win 9/4 pp bidding for a hatrick over hurdles today, course and distance winner up 7lb for last win,had several of his rivals behind that day,and should his usual race,ground should suit

[cc75]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November 2.00 Hereford: Tout Regulier 1pt win @ 15/2 Bet365 BOG Willing to give this one a chance in a wide open looking race today. Has it all to prove over fences having been a half decent hurdler before three disappointing efforts over the larger obstacles. However, was certainly running a better race when last seen in August before taking a tumble at the last fence - looked booked for second that day. If none the worse for that fall then may be running from quite a lenient mark here on first effort in handicap company. Stable in decent heart and think the 15/2 available offers decent win value here.

[anth699]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November

Jockey - J.Maquire makes the journey today for one ride for trainer K.Bailey. The 4yr old filly could be anything and today is her first time on the track. Unsure on trip and ground but i'll take a punt as i can't see J.Maquire making the trip unless threre was a possability of some take home pay. Market Watch. Hereford 4pm - Bonne Free. 0.5 e/w bet 14/1 most firms Hills and Lads etc etc. Enjoy yur day, at ease.

would be nice if his first ride back after a long serious injury wins

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November CAPTAIN SHARPE 1.30 Hereford. 1 point win. Much more exposed than the others, but does set a fair standard, and one that I think will not be passed. Trip and ground fine and I just hope that a couple don't improve that bit more than expected. 11/4 Bet365 BOG

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November 2.50 Market Rasen - 1pt win Beat The Shower @ 11/2 (Hills) Beat The Shower was a winner off a mark of 107 at Hexham last June, and given his progressive nature on the flat, looks very capable of winning off 113 now returned to the jumping game. He was rated 54 on the flat at the time of this victory, but is now 22lbs higher in the handicap. He's really thrived in staying handicaps, and his relaxed style through his races looks perfect for hurdling. He will stay the 2m5f trip fine given he's a thorough stayer on the flat, and so long as he gets over his flights (failed last time), must have a big chance here in a race that's not the best. Cut in the ground suits him nicely and Peter Niven has had a couple go well recently. Barrie Burn looks the obvious threat given he was well backed last time and going well in a decent race before pulling up with something amiss.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November Dermatologist 2.00 Hereford. 1 point win. Done nothing wrong in points and should be able to translate all that form under rules today. The trip and ground isn't a concern, and with several having questions to answer regards jumping, etc, I think he can go close today. 8/1 Bet365 (bog)

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November 6.50 Kempton Lockantanks is a consistent performer on the AW but not a regular scorer with just 2 wins from 33 starts, and although ran well enough last time out probably not enough to win this competitive event off top weight on a mark that has proved beyond him plenty of times. Cool Hand Jake needs an honest gallop to chase and then for the race to fall apart in his lap and he is now becoming very frustrating to support as he often runs good races but never enough to win and handicapper also had his say with a 1lb rise for latest 3rd and cannot be supported in my opinion. Another that needs a strong pace to chase is The Which Doctor and that doesnt seem likely given there is only one front runner in this field in Sweet Secret and she is drawn wide so this could be run at a dawdle and disadvantage the strong travellers like these two. Mountrath return to form out of the blue last time out when tried with more patient tactics in a race run to suit, like ive said above question marks about whether this will be run that fast is a concern considering he can be quite keen anyhow and this is a step back up in class with a 5lb rise which might just prove enough. Sweet Secret ran best race for some time last time out ridden from the lead, but draw not been kind for prominent runner and will need to find more off a 5lb higher mark and not always the most consistent. Larkrise Star has looked a reasonable performer, and did win a Yarmouth handicap 3 starts ago off a mark of 59, bettered that over CD in a claimer, returned to handicap at Windsor but race not run to suit and failed to spark same concern here though and probably another day for him. Morrison has his string good order at the moment and runs Daffydowndilly at the bottom of the weights for this handicap. She is yet to win a race but tried a mile for the first time last time out at Brighton and ran a good race under a change of tactics held up finishing well, could make the running from her good draw and although 7lb higher on the AW all her best form has come on the surface which means she cant be discounted in this field. The one that interests me most is Al Aqabah who won last time out over CD to improve her impressive course record to 3 from 9 and only finished out of the first 3 on a couple of occasions, she is fairly lightly raced for a 6yr old and clearly still improving and appeared to win with something to spare last time out and a 3lb rise looks very lenient and would be no surprise to see her win again. 1pt win Al Aqabah 11/2 bet365

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November

Jockey - J.Maquire makes the journey today for one ride for trainer K.Bailey. The 4yr old filly could be anything and today is her first time on the track. Unsure on trip and ground but i'll take a punt as i can't see J.Maquire making the trip unless threre was a possability of some take home pay. Market Watch. Hereford 4pm - Bonne Free. 0.5 e/w bet 14/1 most firms Hills and Lads etc etc. Enjoy yur day, at ease.

Great winner Jimmy, saved the thread LOL... I hope it was your £1 that was the £1 matched at 1000 , came from the clouds to win! :clap

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November Evening bets still to run; (Haystacks bet NR)

Main Focus - Kempton 5.50 This horse won it's maiden on it's first and only run on the all weather over course and distance three races ago. This was in June and the horse hasn't won since but the soft ground was probably the problem last time out at Ffos las. William Buick has a good 30% strike rate at Kempton for the trainer (John Gosden) so hopefully he will give this horse a good shot. Main Focus E/W @ 17/2 Victor Chandler

6.50 Kempton Lockantanks is a consistent performer on the AW but not a regular scorer with just 2 wins from 33 starts, and although ran well enough last time out probably not enough to win this competitive event off top weight on a mark that has proved beyond him plenty of times. Cool Hand Jake needs an honest gallop to chase and then for the race to fall apart in his lap and he is now becoming very frustrating to support as he often runs good races but never enough to win and handicapper also had his say with a 1lb rise for latest 3rd and cannot be supported in my opinion. Another that needs a strong pace to chase is The Which Doctor and that doesnt seem likely given there is only one front runner in this field in Sweet Secret and she is drawn wide so this could be run at a dawdle and disadvantage the strong travellers like these two. Mountrath return to form out of the blue last time out when tried with more patient tactics in a race run to suit, like ive said above question marks about whether this will be run that fast is a concern considering he can be quite keen anyhow and this is a step back up in class with a 5lb rise which might just prove enough. Sweet Secret ran best race for some time last time out ridden from the lead, but draw not been kind for prominent runner and will need to find more off a 5lb higher mark and not always the most consistent. Larkrise Star has looked a reasonable performer, and did win a Yarmouth handicap 3 starts ago off a mark of 59, bettered that over CD in a claimer, returned to handicap at Windsor but race not run to suit and failed to spark same concern here though and probably another day for him. Morrison has his string good order at the moment and runs Daffydowndilly at the bottom of the weights for this handicap. She is yet to win a race but tried a mile for the first time last time out at Brighton and ran a good race under a change of tactics held up finishing well, could make the running from her good draw and although 7lb higher on the AW all her best form has come on the surface which means she cant be discounted in this field. The one that interests me most is Al Aqabah who won last time out over CD to improve her impressive course record to 3 from 9 and only finished out of the first 3 on a couple of occasions, she is fairly lightly raced for a 6yr old and clearly still improving and appeared to win with something to spare last time out and a 3lb rise looks very lenient and would be no surprise to see her win again. 1pt win Al Aqabah 11/2 bet365

[Dtrains]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November 5.20 kemp jericho- well bred and absolutely tanked through the race last time at wolves maybe not gettin home step back in trip in favour but wide draw a concern but price makes up for this. 1pt win jericho 12/1 lads

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November

Great winner Jimmy, saved the thread LOL... I hope it was your £1 that was the £1 matched at 1000 , came from the clouds to win! :clap

Thanks Man. :ok

[twinny]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November

GB Here 17th Nov / 16:00 2m1f NHF / Bonne Fee Back

SP

30.00

2.00

Won

58.00

owe you a pint jimmy,top tipping mate:beer

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November

GB Here 17th Nov / 16:00 2m1f NHF / Bonne Fee Back

SP

30.00

2.00

Won

58.00

owe you a pint jimmy,top tipping mate:beer

Nice one. :ok

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 17th of November 6:50 Edes Dot Com @ Kempton - Hasn't had much luck on the turf this year but will relish the swap back to the polytrack.Was only beaten by a head when last seen on the all weather back in May.Trainer Pat Phelan has a 15% strike rate and a profit of +28.50 at Kempton this year and with Jemma Marshall claiming 5lb can go close at a tasty price 0.5 E/W @ 40/1 VCBet Cheers