Xtc12 Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 Re: Short Priced Favs Last Shot 15.25 Wincanton 5 Pts Win @ 2.63 (BOG) Made a winning reappearance at Exeter and bounced back from a lesser effort to add to his tally at Ludlow last week (career-best effort). Worth considering under a penalty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 Re: Short Priced Favs Last Shot 15.25 Wincanton 5 Pts Win @ 2.63 (BOG) Made a winning reappearance at Exeter and bounced back from a lesser effort to add to his tally at Ludlow last week (career-best effort). Worth considering under a penalty. 2nd disputed lead until clear leader 4 out, headed approaching 2 out, no extra Start Bank 100 Bets 31 Wins 18 Total Bet 217 Total Won 214.67 Profit -2.33 Strike Rate 58.06% Current Bank 97.67 ROI -1.07% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 Re: Short Priced Favs Sprinter Sacre 14.30 Kempton 6 Pts Win @ 1.22 (BOG) Outstanding, unbeaten chaser, producing highest Timeform rating over jumps in modern era when taking Champion Chase. Successful at Aintree and Punchestown in April, and impossible to oppose on return. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 Re: Short Priced Favs Vukovar 14.15 Newbury 7 pts win 1.67 bog Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 Re: Short Priced Favs Hellorboston 12.00 Kelso 7 pts win 1.53 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Re: Short Priced Favs Cheltenian 12.40 Uttoxeter 9 pts win @ 1.36 (bog) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Re: Short Priced Favs An update from #392 30th December - would have been 8 Pt Win on Desoto County which came 2nd so I am going to add to the system. Sprinter Sacre - PU Vukovar - 1st @ 1.67 Hellorboston 2nd Desoto County 2nd Cheltenian 1st @ 1.36 In total; Bet 37 Pts, Won 23.93 Start Bank 100 Bets 36 Wins 20 Total Bet 254 Total Won 238.60 Profit -15.40 Strike Rate 55.55% Current Bank 84.60 ROI -6.06% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Re: Short Priced Favs Annie Power 15.05 Cheltenham 9 Pts Win @ 1.36 (BOG) Unbeaten mare after 8 career starts, posting a very smart effort when fending off Zarkandar in the Coral Hurdle at Ascot last month. 4 lb worse off with that rival, but may yet have more to offer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Re: Short Priced Favs Annie Power 15.05 Cheltenham 9 Pts Win @ 1.36 (BOG) Unbeaten mare after 8 career starts, posting a very smart effort when fending off Zarkandar in the Coral Hurdle at Ascot last month. 4 lb worse off with that rival, but may yet have more to offer. 1st @ 1.4 tracked leader, led 2 out, shaken up and easily drew clear final 150 yards Start Bank 100 Bets 37 Wins 21 Total Bet 263 Total Won 251.20 Profit -11.80 Strike Rate 56.75% Current Bank 88.20 ROI -4.48% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Have you backtested your system.under 1.5 odds wins 110% sp return if you backed all in most categories 107.5% after comm 2.5% with betdaq. Sent from my XT1032 using PL Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Re: Short Priced Favs Hi Anaconda thanks for the input. I backtested the system for two years previous to starting. Of course it was only to 1 bet a day and not all under 1.5 odds a day. I take from your comment above that, for all horses which started at under 1.5 odds you would have a ROI of 10%. Interesting fact if this is true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Re: Short Priced Favs Fine Rightly 12.20 Ayr 9 Pts Win @ 1.17 (BOG) Winner of a Grade 2 bumper on appeal on his reappearance at Navan last month, FINE RIGHTLY is very difficult to oppose on his hurdling debut today. The Irish raider sets a clear standard on his bumper form, which also includes a 2m victory here on his racecourse debut. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Re: Short Priced Favs Fine Rightly 12.20 Ayr 9 Pts Win @ 1.17 (BOG) Winner of a Grade 2 bumper on appeal on his reappearance at Navan last month, FINE RIGHTLY is very difficult to oppose on his hurdling debut today. The Irish raider sets a clear standard on his bumper form, which also includes a 2m victory here on his racecourse debut. 1st @ 1.17 tracked leaders in 3rd and keen, jumped left throughout, blundered and pecked 4 out, ridden to challenge 2 out, led last, held on well near finish Start Bank 100 Bets 38 Wins 22 Total Bet 272 Total Won 261.73 Profit -10.27 Strike Rate 57.89% Current Bank 89.73 ROI -3.77% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Re: Short Priced Favs Kris Cross 15.10 Musselburgh 9 Pts Win @ 2.1 (BOG) Not yet a fluent jumper, but off the mark over fences when landing a 3m handicap at Ascot in November. That win owed much to the antics of the reluctant runner-up, but been found a weak race here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 Re: Short Priced Favs Retrieve the Stick 12.00 Newcastle 10 Pts Win @ SP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 Re: Short Priced Favs Kris Cross 15.10 Musselburgh 9 Pts Win @ 2.1 (BOG) Not yet a fluent jumper, but off the mark over fences when landing a 3m handicap at Ascot in November. That win owed much to the antics of the reluctant runner-up, but been found a weak race here. 2nd tracked leader, led and not fluent 11th, headed 3 out, kept on and no chance with winner Retrieve the Stick 12.00 Newcastle 10 Pts Win @ SP 1st @ 1.38 tracked leaders in 3rd, challenged before 3 out, ridden before 2 out, led 2 out, pressed run-in, held on near finish Start Bank 100 Bets 40 Wins 23 Total Bet 291 Total Won 285.48 Profit -5.52 Strike Rate 57.5% Current Bank 94.48 ROI -1.89% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 Re: Short Priced Favs Mudita Moment 14.20 Plumpton 9 Pts Win @ 1.8 (BOG) Improved to make winning return from an absence for new yard at Warwick earlier in the week and 7 lb penalty won't stop him if turning up here in similar form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 Re: Short Priced Favs Mudita Moment 14.20 Plumpton 9 Pts Win @ 1.8 (BOG) Improved to make winning return from an absence for new yard at Warwick earlier in the week and 7 lb penalty won't stop him if turning up here in similar form. 1st @ 1.8 (BOG) held up towards rear, headway before 3 out, went 2nd before 2 out, led and jumped badly right 2 out, pressed before last, kept on gamely run-in Start Bank 100 Bets 41 Wins 24 Total Bet 300 Total Won 301.68 Profit 1.68 Strike Rate 58.5% Current Bank 101.68 ROI 0.56% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 6, 2014 Author Share Posted January 6, 2014 Re: Short Priced Favs Earth Amber 14.30 Southwell 9 Pts Win @ 2.1 (BOG) Useful Flat performer who is making her hurdling debut, but should take all the beating if avoiding serious errors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 6, 2014 Author Share Posted January 6, 2014 Re: Short Priced Favs Earth Amber 14.30 Southwell 9 Pts Win @ 2.1 (BOG) Useful Flat performer who is making her hurdling debut, but should take all the beating if avoiding serious errors. 2nd tracked leaders in 3rd, went 2nd before 5 out, ridden before last, kept on and no chance with winner Start Bank 100 Bets 42 Wins 24 Total Bet 309 Total Won 301.68 Profit -7.32 Strike Rate 57.14% Current Bank 92.68 ROI -2.36% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 Re: Short Priced Favs Uhlan Bute 13.00 Plumpton 10 Pt Win @ 2.0 (BOG) Off the mark for yard in 2m Southwell hurdle in May on soft and couple of creditable efforts in defeat since, including at Leicester last week. Bred to stay lot further but impossible to ignore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 Re: Short Priced Favs Uhlan Bute 13.00 Plumpton 10 Pt Win @ 2.0 (BOG) Off the mark for yard in 2m Southwell hurdle in May on soft and couple of creditable efforts in defeat since, including at Leicester last week. Bred to stay lot further but impossible to ignore. 1st @ 2.0 (BOG) tracked leaders, went 2nd before 6th, led before 2 out, joined last, driven and strongly pressed flat, stayed on to assert nearing finish Start Bank 100 Bets 43 Wins 25 Total Bet 319 Total Won 321.68 Profit 2.68 Strike Rate 58.13% Current Bank 102.68 ROI 0.84% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 Re: Short Priced Favs Allow Dallow 15.05 Exeter 9 Pts Win @ 1.62 (BOG) Bought for £100,000 after winning an Irish point. Only fifth in a bumper in February but much more encouragement when runner-up both tries over hurdles last month. Shortlisted here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 Re: Short Priced Favs Allow Dallow 15.05 Exeter 9 Pts Win @ 1.62 (BOG) Bought for £100,000 after winning an Irish point. Only fifth in a bumper in February but much more encouragement when runner-up both tries over hurdles last month. Shortlisted here. PU held up mid-division, ridden before 3 out, soon weakened, pulled up Start Bank 100 Bets 44 Wins 25 Total Bet 328 Total Won 321.68 Profit -6.32 Strike Rate 56.81% Current Bank 93.68 ROI -1.92% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 15, 2014 Author Share Posted January 15, 2014 Re: Short Priced Favs Dark Lover 13.20 Newbury 10 Pts Win @ 1.90 (BOG) Smart hurdler, winning 4 times in that sphere. Rather fortunate winner of Cheltenham novice event on chase debut (left clear 2 out), and came to grief next time, but still looks the one to beat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 15, 2014 Author Share Posted January 15, 2014 Re: Short Priced Favs Dark Lover 13.20 Newbury 10 Pts Win @ 1.90 (BOG) Smart hurdler, winning 4 times in that sphere. Rather fortunate winner of Cheltenham novice event on chase debut (left clear 2 out), and came to grief next time, but still looks the one to beat. 2nd tracked leading pair, went 2nd after 3rd, blundered 7th, hit 4 out, dropped to 3rd next, ridden and every chance last, chased winner final 200 yards and stayed on in closing stages, just held Start Bank 100 Bets 45 Wins 25 Total Bet 338 Total Won 321.68 Profit -16.32 Strike Rate 55.55% Current Bank 83.68 ROI -4.82% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 Re: Short Priced Favs Baltimore Rock 15.50 Wincanton 11 Pts Win @ 1.36 (BOG) Won Bangor bumper for Peter Niven and built on that when finding the frame in 2 similar events for this yard. Close third on hurdling bow /return at Ffos Las and should prove hard to beat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 Re: Short Priced Favs Baltimore Rock 15.50 Wincanton 11 Pts Win @ 1.36 (BOG) Won Bangor bumper for Peter Niven and built on that when finding the frame in 2 similar events for this yard. Close third on hurdling bow /return at Ffos Las and should prove hard to beat. 1st @ 1.67 (BOG) held up towards rear, headway before 3rd, went 2nd from next, led before last, kept on Start Bank 100 Bets 46 Wins 26 Total Bet 349 Total Won 340.05 Profit -8.95 Strike Rate 56.52% Current Bank 91.05 ROI -2.56% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 Re: Short Priced Favs Western Approaches 13.45 Musselburgh 11Pts Win @ 2.75 (BOG) Won twice in novice company in summer 2012 and back to form of late, though it was a weak handicap she took at Taunton (2½m) last month and she needs to prove effectiveness on softer ground now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 Re: Short Priced Favs Western Approaches 13.45 Musselburgh 11Pts Win @ 2.75 (BOG) Won twice in novice company in summer 2012 and back to form of late, though it was a weak handicap she took at Taunton (2½m) last month and she needs to prove effectiveness on softer ground now. Fell at First Start Bank 100 Bets 47 Wins 26 Total Bet 360 Total Won 340.05 Profit -19.95 Strike Rate 55.31% Current Bank 80.05 ROI -5.54% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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