Jase82 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Friday 11 November 2011 Home Draw Away BPP Bosnia-Herzegovina v Portugal (19:00 GMT) 3.4 3.3 2.5 99.71 % Turkey v Croatia (19:05 GMT) 2.44 3.25 3.3 102.06 % Czech Republic v Montenegro (19:15 GMT) 1.72 3.65 5.4 103.81 % Estonia v Republic of Ireland (19:45 GMT) 3.5 3.3 2.5 98.87 % Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustafa Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November Really liked odds on Bosnia. They impressed me during the qualifiers and should have won the group if it wasn't for unfair penalty. But these days I really don't expect France to win anything fairly. Last year it was Henry's hand that took them to the world cup and this time unfair penalty. I have already taken Bosnia to qualify taking into account that Portugal as a team is not so good. They finished runners up in the group and lost both away games against their main rivals, namely Denmark and Norway. Also think that odds on Montenegro are also good. If a team reached that far in the competition they should be respected and also if I am correct they have lost only one game in qualifiers and that was against Wales which in my opinion was juts a flop. Will post more reasoning soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustafa Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November Bosnia & H. - Portugal Bosnia did really well in their qualifiers and on paper they have as much stars in their squad as Portugal, but in my opinion the Bosnians are stronger as a team compared to Portugal. All of their players play in strong European leagues and have good experience. Portugal did not impress me and they have conceded 12 goals in 8 qualifying games including 4 against Cyprus and 3 against Iceland, the teams that do not have so many good strikers. They have also did not play away from home losing to Denmark and Norway. I would not say that Portugal is much stronger than Bosnia & H., so I don't understand why they are considered favorites to qualify from this tie. The value us in backing Bosnia. Bosnia & H to Qualify @ 3.00 (4 units) William Hill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capricorno Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November I would stay away from the Bosnia game. Even though, the game is in Zenica where Bosnia's team plays with an amazing atmosphere and have previously avoided defeat against top teams and even put 3 behind the Spanish team @ their peak 3 years ago. The reason is that Bosnia will be missing 3 very important defenders in- Papac (Glasgow Rangers) and Pandza. Also RB- Mensur Mujdza (Freiburg) is injured and one of the reasons France ended up having many chances down the end of the game in Paris was that he got injured around the 70th minute. Bosnia has a great first team, but their is a lack of depth in the squad I feel that value lies in Portugal DnB on Bosnia's ground and Bosnia away to Portugal (should be priced around 6.50- depending on first games result) I also feel that Bosnia will have to rely on Sead Salihovic (Hoffenheim) and Lulic (Lazio Rome) in their wingback positions. This will be a huge problem, as these players are naturally midfielders and tend to run out too far and thus create a lot of space down the flanks.. this will be deadly with Portugal having some of the best wingers in Nani and Ronaldo. I will wait until 1-2 days before the game until I can see definete line-up and injuries. Bosnia's midfield and attack should be the same as in France. Although, Salihovic is a great addition and very dangerous in set-pieces. Will do more study on the Portugese and get back to you. Their away performances haven't been the greatest, but they were unlucky in both Denmark and Norway games not to at least draw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capricorno Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November Based on early market odds im leaning towards: Croatia Win or Draw (medium stakes) : Croatia simply has a higher quality team with less players missing here. Istanbul is not as intimidating as it once was. Germany cruised past here and Turkey struggled in this qualifying campaign to find fluidity in their game. Croatia will most likely get a draw here and qualify over Turkey on their home ground. Croatia's motivation will be high to avange themselves for Euro 2008 defeat by Turkey. Ireland DnB (heavy stakes) : More quality once again and a far better coach and strategiest. Also the Irish players have far more experience with such high pressure games. Draw at the worst case scenario- so DnB Portugal DnB (heavy stakes): As explained in previous post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexc Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November I would of thought the play in Bosnia was goals. Portugal play such an open game under Bento, where they seem to rely more on outscoring the opposition. If Bosnia are at it, they can profit. I think it's impossible to pick a winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Privro2 Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November I would not say that Portugal is much stronger than Bosnia & H., so I don't understand why they are considered favorites to qualify from this tie. The value us in backing Bosnia. If you compare player by player Portugal are much better in every position except striker where Bosnia has Dzeko and Portugal is stuck with Almeida.. But still defense, midfield, wings it's no competition... all Bosnia has is Dzeko and Pjanic(who's overrated imo).. portugal has huge potential and in this game they will be motivated too! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted November 6, 2011 Author Share Posted November 6, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November I remember the same calls for Bosnia last time these two met in a playoff, and Portugal largely dominated both legs. Could be wrong on that, but I'd say the odds are about right, Portugal are the better side, and don't really strike me as being a side in a transitional state. Although when it comes to the real deal they'll rely on Ronaldo too much, and should things not go their way, I'd expect a few little hissy fits. For this encounter the real question for me would be have Bosnia improved, and do they have the added mentality to rise to the occasion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sajtion Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November things i know about the bosnia team is that the zenica stadium pitch is in very bad condition i.e. muddy and uneven terrain so that will play an important part of the performance of both teams. the portuguese complained about it to uefa but after the initial assessment it was decided to be played there anyway but far from great conditions. the bosnian coach is still trying to patch his defence which is a major problem. it seem like he will bring in sanel jahic from cypriot apoel nicosia and sejad salihovic from german hoffenheim but they are not match for an attacking wingers nani and ronaldo especially in speed and agility. the bosnian coach has stated that all players on one yellow card must ensure they don't get second for suspension so there is another hint. he must have all the players available if they have any chance of reaching the final tournament. basically without first eleven the bosnian team doesn't have much other quality to fall back on unlike portugal. on a positive note the bosnian team has got plenty of capable midfielders. both teams play quite an offensive style of football so for me could be five goals in this game. good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November I remember the same calls for Bosnia last time these two met in a playoff' date=' and Portugal largely dominated both legs. Could be wrong on that, but I'd say the odds are about right, Portugal are the better side, and don't really strike me as being a side in a transitional state. Although when it comes to the real deal they'll rely on Ronaldo too much, and should things not go their way, I'd expect a few little hissy fits. For this encounter the real question for me would be have Bosnia improved, and do they have the added mentality to rise to the occasion.[/quote'] Agree Portugal are much the better side, and Bosnia often seem to disappoint when it comes to the crunch. But they did look excellent in their last group game in France - when they stood to qualify if they won, and almost did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November Think Trappatoni's Ireland look decent value at 2.5 away to Estonia - would have expected them to be a bit shorter than this. They won three and drew two of their five away group games, only conceding one goal in the process. Ireland clean sheet @ 11/8 with Bet 365 looks good value too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November Agree Portugal are much the better side' date=' and Bosnia often seem to disappoint when it comes to the crunch. But they did look excellent in their last group game in France - when they stood to qualify if they won, and almost did.[/quote'] Yeah that's France though.... the way France have been recently, they'd make the womens national side look good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November Think Trappatoni's Ireland look decent value at 2.5 away to Estonia - would have expected them to be a bit shorter than this. They won three and drew two of their five away group games' date=' only conceding one goal in the process. Ireland clean sheet @ 11/8 with Bet 365 looks good value too.[/quote'] Hi MPLouis. Just so you know, Long , Doyle and O'Shea are all out for the away match which is a big blow... I think Estonia will be well up for this match and i think they will cause us a few problems, dont think it will be the easy match everyone thinks its going to be.. For me i think the draw is the best way to go, but of course i hope we win, but were very limited going forward Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexc Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November Agree Portugal are much the better side' date=' and Bosnia often seem to disappoint when it comes to the crunch. But they did look excellent in their last group game in France - when they stood to qualify if they won, and almost did.[/quote'] They're not the much better side, they just have the better players, man for man. It all depends on what Bosnia turn up. If it's the one that get's beat 3-0 in Romania, Portugal should go through. If it's the one that goes to the French and nearly wins, they've a good chance. Last meeting between these two is irrelevant. Bosnia have more experience now, as possibly shown by the French match, Portugal were a lot more tactically astute under Queiroz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mad_men Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November Yeah...... that Bosnia - Portugal is a little bit tricky, though those missings in defence for Bosnian team is pretty big blow. I watched them against France and they were really good in that game, but the biggest question what concerns me is - can they actually repeat this kind of performance. Because when a team is on big pressure then things always don't go the way they want. As for Portugal - if we are looking at player names, then Portugal is arguably the best team from these 8 teams in Playoffs. The only problem is that those players performance on the field is not alway top-notch. All in all what I am pretty sure is that I will not bet on Bosnia, most probably will take Portugal DnB as I don't see them losing this clash. . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiddo112 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November Hi MPLouis. Just so you know' date=' Long , Doyle and O'Shea are all out for the away match which is a big blow... I think Estonia will be well up for this match and i think they will cause us a few problems, dont think it will be the easy match everyone thinks its going to be.. For me i think the draw is the best way to go, but of course i hope we win, but were very limited going forward[/quote'] Was thinking with Ireland missing Long and Doyle, and Trap's normal cautious tactics, time of first goal after the 27th min might be a play. But think 0-0 is a big runner, and unders too short. Agree the draw is a big runner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigson22 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November Also agree with MPLouis that Rep of Ireland are a good bet, i saw Estonia first hand at Windsor Park vs Northern Ireland and also watched the away game in Tallinn on TV. On both occasions silly mistakes by the N. Ireland team gave them goals. We played them off the pitch in the 1st half at home and we were missing 2 of our best players and they didn't impress me. They certainly played above their level to qualify from the group ahead of Serbia & Slovenia and to qualify would be step too far imo. Ireland will have too much quality particularly up front so i'm backing them strongly. Ireland to win 7/5 Boylesport 8/10 Ireland 2-0 9/1 Ladbrokes 4/10 Doyle first goal 13/2 Bet365 4/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November Yeah that's France though.... the way France have been recently' date=' they'd make the womens national side look good.[/quote'] We're going a bit off-topic here, but - as it happens the French womens side is excellent - but so is the men's (have you seen them recently?). They are a completely different side under Laurent Blanc to the diabolical one at last year's World Cup. France's record since going out of the World Cup 2010 in South Africa - Played 17 Won 10 Drawn 5 Lost 2 Scored 25 Conceded 9 http://www.soccerway.com/teams/france/france/ (But my original point was that France are a very good side now, and Bosnia completely outplayed them in the first half of their last group qualifier in Paris. They drew 1-1, but could easily have won). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiddo112 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November Also agree with MPLouis that Rep of Ireland are a good bet, i saw Estonia first hand at Windsor Park vs Northern Ireland and also watched the away game in Tallinn on TV. On both occasions silly mistakes by the N. Ireland team gave them goals. We played them off the pitch in the 1st half at home and we were missing 2 of our best players and they didn't impress me. They certainly played above their level to qualify from the group ahead of Serbia & Slovenia and to qualify would be step too far imo. Ireland will have too much quality particularly up front so i'm backing them strongly. Ireland to win 7/5 Boylesport 8/10 Ireland 2-0 9/1 Ladbrokes 4/10 Doyle first goal 13/2 Bet365 4/10 Kevin Doyle is suspended mate. Long & Best injured. Greatly reduces the "quality up front". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November Hi MPLouis. Just so you know' date=' Long , Doyle and O'Shea are all out for the away match which is a big blow... I think Estonia will be well up for this match and i think they will cause us a few problems, dont think it will be the easy match everyone thinks its going to be.. For me i think the draw is the best way to go, but of course i hope we win, but were very limited going forward[/quote'] From what I heard, Ireland were pretty lucky to get a 0-0 draw with Russia, but overall you can't ignore their superb away record. I am wary of talking them up too much, but they haven't lost an away match for over 4 years and this makes odds of 2.4 pretty attractive - http://www.soccerway.com/teams/ireland-republic/ireland-republic/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November We're going a bit off-topic here Not really as it's all relevant to Bosnia :ok France beat Luxembourg, Albania, and Romania :unsure and Bosnia away. Not really much of a marker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markus808 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November I personally wont touch Estonia vs REP of Ireland because it involves my national team playing, but I wouldn't reccomend putting high stakes on Ireland's win, It's not going to be profitable with such short odds and Irelands injurys. Estonia is a well organized team and will perform against teams like Ireland, I know that everybody wanted to play against estonia in qualifiers, but we wanted to play against Ireland:D So it's a no bet for me. However, I see some value in draw at 3.30 because both teams dont want to lose their first game, but I think there are better picks available in other games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob the I ty Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November Turkey @2.44 home win and Turkey @2.10 to qualify is decent value, this has more to do with the state of the Croats. I saw them against Greece in a game they only needed a draw to seal the group and they were very unimpressive. Plenty of holes at the back for a moderately effective Greek attack to exploit and they were listless going forward. Turkey improved as their campaign went on. With Guus Hiddink as their manager I would expect Turkey to take care of business at home and advance to Euro 2012. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November Also agree with MPLouis that Rep of Ireland are a good bet, i saw Estonia first hand at Windsor Park vs Northern Ireland and also watched the away game in Tallinn on TV. On both occasions silly mistakes by the N. Ireland team gave them goals. We played them off the pitch in the 1st half at home and we were missing 2 of our best players and they didn't impress me. They certainly played above their level to qualify from the group ahead of Serbia & Slovenia and to qualify would be step too far imo. Ireland will have too much quality particularly up front so i'm backing them strongly. Ireland to win 7/5 Boylesport 8/10 Ireland 2-0 9/1 Ladbrokes 4/10 Doyle first goal 13/2 Bet365 4/10 You obviously havent done your homework bud! Long, Doyle, Best , three of our strikers are OUT! I dont see where the goals are gonna come from! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November From what I heard, Ireland were pretty lucky to get a 0-0 draw with Russia, but overall you can't ignore their superb away record. I am wary of talking them up too much, but they haven't lost an away match for over 4 years and this makes odds of 2.4 pretty attractive - http://www.soccerway.com/teams/ireland-republic/ireland-republic/ Yes thats true... Russia should have beat us 5-0, it was a miracle we got a 0-0.. Out of our last 12 away competitive matches, we may be unbeaten but we have won 5 and drawn 7, so surely the value therefore lies in the draw.... Lads, Estonia are not going to be a walkover, these players have notning to lose and Ireland have no quality whatsoever, we just defend very well and get a bit of luck along the way... Ireland will have very little possession in both legs, we cant hold the ball Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elwormio Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November Also agree with MPLouis that Rep of Ireland are a good bet, i saw Estonia first hand at Windsor Park vs Northern Ireland and also watched the away game in Tallinn on TV. On both occasions silly mistakes by the N. Ireland team gave them goals. We played them off the pitch in the 1st half at home and we were missing 2 of our best players and they didn't impress me. They certainly played above their level to qualify from the group ahead of Serbia & Slovenia and to qualify would be step too far imo. Ireland will have too much quality particularly up front so i'm backing them strongly. Would back this synopsis of Estonia up 100%. I was at both group games v Northern Ireland, Talinn and Belfast, and they were shocking (which gives you an idea of how bad we were under Nigel Worthington). My initial plan has been to back the Republic of Ireland for a few weeks now but having seen the withdrawals of some important players over the last few days has made me revise my prediction. Given that Trappatoni is the quintessential Italian boss whose primary focus is on keeping it tight at the back coupled with the fact that Estonia really are mediocre my tip would be as follows: REP OF IRELAND TO KEEP CLEAN SHEET - 11/8 with bet365 - 5/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November Estonia vs Ireland UNDER 2 goals AH @ 1.962 (Pinnacle:4pts) Think this will be a complete borefest, and would be hoping for at least a push. I'd expect Estonia to be forcing the play and trying to get an advantage going to the second leg, but I see Ireland shutting them out. O' Shea is out so probably Kelly in at RB, Dunne and St Ledger central, Ward at LB, and the 2 average midfielders sitting in front of the defence to break up play, Andrews and Whelan who offer little or nothing offensively but Trap loves havng these guys in there for protection. Ireland have a better side on paper and with Duff, McGeady, and Keane partnered with one of Cox/Walters there is some threat there but I think the approach away will be cautious for the most part. This bet covers 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and stake returned if 2 goals are scored, happy enough to take it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj rob Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November I agree about the under 2 in Estonia-Ireland...Ireland away is stronger than home due to their defensive approach...I think the score will be 0-0, 1-1 or 0-1...Estonia has a similar approach as Ireland and managed to get better results away vs. strong teams like Slovenia and Serbia (except the defeat vs. Faroer). So far all lines in the playoff games are under/over 2 except for Czech Rep - Montenegro. Here we have under 2.25 @ 1.9 (Pinnacle) and I will gladly take this offer. Czech Rep played all home matches under 2.5 in the quali, no matter if they had to face a strong or a weak team (0-1 vs. Lithuania, 1-0 vs Scotland, 2-0 vs Lichtenstein,0-2 vs Spain). Montenegro also looked underish during the quali (8 matches 7:7 goals). Outstanding was their 0-0 in England. In the end they lost a little concentration (1-2 vs. Wales) but I´m sure they will be up to this historical match with a careful approach. Another option I like is Montenegro AH+0.75 @ 1.93...maybe odds will rise on Montenegro til matchday...but first things first: Czech Rep-Montenegro under 2.25 1.9 Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November Not really as it's all relevant to Bosnia :ok France beat Luxembourg, Albania, and Romania :unsure and Bosnia away. Not really much of a marker. Respectfully disagree with that - they have also beaten Brazil and England Jase :lol Have you seen France play recently? They have impressed me every time I've seen them ... as I said before they are a changed team under Blanc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Re: Euro 2012 Playoffs > Friday 11th November Yeah that's France though.... the way France have been recently' date=' they'd make the womens national side look good.[/quote'] Wrong! France have dramatically improved under Blanc and i have already tipped them up to get to the semi-finals of the Euro's if not the final! They are very solid at the back now and Benzema is banging in goals for them.. Nobody will want to meet France in the Euro's! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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