BBOTD - Weds 26 Oct

[Haystacks]

Goldream - Kem 7.35 (0.5ew 8-1 BET365 BOG) Open-looking nursery with some quite sharp divergences of opinion between the prices available at the two early price bookies, Bet365 and PaddyPower. The form of Goldream's CD second has worked out well so far, as a couple of the horses behind him have since come out and won maidens. Since that Kempton run, Goldream was a beaten favourite in a soft ground maiden at Newcastle, having been given what looked like a woefully misjudged front-running ride by Keiran Fallon. I fancy Luca Cumani will ensure that he won't make the same mistake on his handicap debut.

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD - Weds 27 Oct Sorry guys, that should be Weds 26 Oct!

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD - Weds 27 Oct 5.00 Punchestown Turnonthegas e/w 20/1 PaddyPower Turnonthegas should be much fitter here today after returning to the track from a short break a couple of weeks ago. He has won over further at this track on heavy ground so that should give him an advantage over his rivals today. If racing does go ahead, then conditions will be very tough and I think you need to be looking at horses that stay. The big doubt for me over this horse however, is the fact he doesn't wear the cheekpieces today. He beat the talented Martin Scruff last year at this track and that horse is now rated around 122. He may be able to run into a place today.

[Petersson1984]

Re: BBOTD - Weds 27 Oct 15:50 Musselburgh Lexington Bay Win (4,00) Paddy Power The hattrick seeking gelding, drops down in grade to complet this career milestone. The two previous win was at class 3 and 2, while this race is in class 4. Those wins give Lexington Bay an extra 4lb but that shouldnt de enough to stop him. The slightly soft going, seems to suit him well. Lexington Bay recent form. 1-4-5-1-1 The jockey Paul Hanagan gets his 7th run whit the 3 year old. Hanagan are still on top of the table, but whit only a few weeks left, he will need to keep focus, if he wants to keep De Sousa behind him.

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD - Weds 27 Oct 16:00 Haydock BADGER FOOT was extremely progressive last season after joining Lucinda Russell and still looked to be going the right way when returning from pointing to win really nicely at Kelso off a mark of 110 over the three mile trip, there were excuses last time and he still looks a horse who could make his presence felt off a much higher rating and he’s worthy of an investment today. The six year-old was formerly with Jonjo O’Neill, winning only once and generally been a little bit disappointing. He was revitalised mind after joining current connections, winning five times in points before transferring that to the aforementioned Kelso effort. That day he travelled supremely well and never really looked in much danger, finding plenty when asked and was eased down at the finish. The runner-up has continued to improve so it obviously wasn’t a bad race so a 9lb hike in the weights didn’t look too harsh. Was next seen only two weeks later and he was in with a big shout after been backed into favouritism (in the Perth Gold Cup, a much tougher race obviously). He blundered a fence and went backwards from then on, it later transpiring that he’d lost his action in the process. The way he travelled before the incident suggested he still had plenty of mileage off his revised mark and at his age, looked a horse to follow. Today he comes off a summer break, so fitness could well be an issue. However, Lucinda Russell is in fine form at present and I’ll give the benefit of the doubt on that front. This isn’t as competitive as on first glance, and I’m only particularly worried about Eyre Square, who could improve again switched back to fences. That being said, I believe Badger Foot could be a horse capable of acting in the 130’s, so in my estimation it makes him well-handicapped off his current mark of 119. He travels well, generally jumps extremely nicely and he’s only a six year old too, which means progression is likely. Fitness will have to be taken on trust and if I knew his wellbeing was guaranteed I’d be tempted to “max bet” him. Even so, he’s worth a solid investment as he’s progressive with more definitely to come, comes from a yard in great form and faces opposition generally who are a fair bit weaker than he is. He should be favourite in my book so a price of 7/1 looks three points or so too big. BADGER FOOT; Win @ 7/1 William Hill (bog)

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD - Weds 27 Oct 2.10 Muss Military Call is being tried over this distance again despite seeming to be best over 1M so the stable must believe he has it in him.Runs of a very nice mark and if he stays then he must have a chance back at this track where he has won before. 1Pt win 14/1 Bet365

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD - Weds 27 Oct 2.10 Musselburgh - 1pt win Jupiter Fidius @ 10/1 (Bet365) 9f selling handicaps aren't really my cup of tea either, but the 10/1 about the Kate Walton trained Jupiter Fidius is just a little too big for me to turn down. This horse struggles to win races, but has been in the frame on 13 of his 26 starts, and down at this level, most horses struggle to retain that much consistency. He probably paid for his maiden victory at this track, giving him a handicap mark he struggled to compete off for much of his early career. It's steadily dropped from 76 down to a career low of 59 now, and considering he was only narrowly deprived off 60 at Ripon in June, he may be poised to strike. Since then, he's only put in one really poor run, and just lacking the finishing kick in most of his other efforts. He's been racing in better company than this, though, so his rivals today may not be so effective at the death. He chased home Carragold (who since ran a marvellous 4th in the Silver Cambridgeshire) and then was a good 3rd to Hot Rod Mamma - again a very progressive horse this year whose mark has shot up to 90! He could do nothing about these types, but a repeat of the Ripon run would be good enough today. Things didn't really work out when he lost his place before rallying a bit next time when 3rd at Haydock over 10f, and the 9th of 15 last time isn't terrible considering the race was better than what he contests today. The 9f shouldn't pose too much of a problem, and has a win and a 2nd (to Carragold) from two starts at the track. I don't think there's much depth in the race either as I think the two Jim Goldie runners will struggle to see out the trip (one sprint bred and one who has been very keen in his races - both stepping up 2f). Royal Straight has an obvious chance but a strike rate of 3 from 45 makes him worth taking on as favourite. Aqua Lad has plenty to prove, and Whispering Spirit is considerably better on the all-weather. He did run well at Newcastle, however, and does rate as a threat. One thing that caught my eye is the fact Paul Hanagan takes the ride on my selection - for a trainer he has virtually never ridden for. Hanagan was on board Whispering Spirit for his last run, and rides a lot for Ann Duffield. The fact he's on Jupiter Fidius is interesting to me unless I'm missing something, as he chases the jockey's championship. I think he has a rock solid chance of making the frame, and might just manage to keep his head in front this time.

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD - Weds 27 Oct 1:30 Nottingham - Ridley Didley - 1pt @ 20/1 (Bet365) It's very tough to be confident about anything in this 17-runner 5-furlong sprint and plenty come into it with a chance of going well. Given how it's beneficial to have a high draw over this trip at Nottingham, Ridley Didley looks to be the one to side with from the highest stall in 17. Noel Wilson's speedy 6 year old will have to overcome a mark of 66 and win in a C5 contest for the first time if he's to return the money here but he's just the type to be massively favoured in these conditions and looks worthy of small stakes support. Riddley Didley hasn't run up to his best on his recent 4 outings but I'm finding it quite easy to find excuses as to why that was the case and if he can come here in the same vein as his last win, he's not without a chance at all. That victory was achieved 5 starts ago at Musselburgh over this flying 5 furlongs, a race in which Noel Wilson's charge won by nearly 2 lengths with relative ease. He's only 2lb higher in the ratings now and although plenty suited him on that occasion, a similar run may just suffice here for a horse who has much more speed than one would expect from a seemingly exposed sprinter. The problem is that he usually can't sustain his effort but he'll have the favoured rail to help here. On that occasion, Adrian Nicholls partnered Ridley Didley and he does so again for the first time since. I wouldn't exactly be the biggest fan of him but some horses go for certain jockeys and having him hop back on board may just be a bigger positive than it looks. He's also riding well of late and doesn't venture down to Nottingham too often, so hopefully he's heading down with the intention of grabbing a nice-priced winner with what looks to be his best of two rides (the other is in a seller for Dandy). The horse also does exceptionally well at the track having won off 60 and finished 2nd off this mark of 66 in just two runs here. He does face an uphill task against some useful types but he's talented on his day and having a very small win bet at a fancy price-tag of 20/1 will do no harm.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD - Weds 27 Oct Dan Donnelly - Kempton 6:35 This is a rather poor maiden tomorrow and im hoping my selection eeks out a bit more improvement, and if it does so it should be involved at a nice price. Finished 8th of 9 on debut when going off at 11/2 and on its last run i thought it ran a fine race when unfancied, finished 4th of 10 behind Triple Charm at a price of 40/1. Interestingly Gask has two runners in the race but my selection seems to have a better chance than the other one, Heavenly Games. I will have an e/w punt at what should be a good price. E/W @ 33/1 Hills BOG

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD - Weds 27 Oct Haydock 4.00 Badger Foot win - 7/1 SJ Given one of the worst possible rides lto when constantly bumping into horses and then making a blunder when in contention. Reportedly lost his action and pulled up, but has been given a break and freshened up I can see him running well. Won off 9lb lower, but won really well and I doubt the mark will stop him. Tariner in great form, just hoping he gets more daylight today. If he jumps and travels the way he did at Kelso, I think he can win.

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD - Weds 27 Oct 3.40 Nottingham Nazreef returned to form at Goodwood last time and improved plenty for the fitting of first time blinkers. If they have the desired effect he could follow up but from a low draw I prefer the reopposing MAHADEE, who is 4lb better off for a 1.75l beating last time. Has dropped to a good mark for this small but capable trainer and looks a shade too big. 12/1 VC Bet, 1 pt win

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD - Weds 27 Oct 9.05 Kempton Daruband is a worthy E/W bet, he is a Go Golphin cast off who failed to complete on 2 starts for Chapman but shaped much more encouragingly for new stable the Mccabe yard from a bad draw had to go the long way round throughout but stayed on well in a race when little got into it from behind and if building on that effort with cheekpieces fitted for the first time he could be there in the shake up despite the bad draw again. 0.5pts e/w Daruband 9/1 bet365

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD - Weds 26 Oct 435 Haydock: Cresswell Bramble 1pt (9/1 Laddies) Good chance for this front running type from the Keith Goldsworthy yard, well regarded last year when novice hurdling and made his chase debut behind Havingotascoobydo at Ffos Las. He was well there until two out and jumped well in the main. This sharper track will suit his style and the fences are not that difficult here anymore, expect him to set a fast pace and hang on longer this time, a good EW bet but will go for the win as its a dead 8 at the minute and we just know there will be NR's.

[switzerland]

Re: BBOTD - Weds 26 Oct Ampleforth - 3.40 Nottingham 1pt Win 5/1 VC BOG I put up Ampleforth on BOTD earlier in the month when he could only finish 3rd but I'm willing to give him another chance today. That was only his 4th run and he's still improving whereas the vast majority of the opposition appear to be fairly exposed. It's also worth noting that De Sousa goes to Nottingham for only two Mark Johnston rides and the other is a 20/1 shot. That might well be down to the fact that he is going to Kempton later on but Johnston has runners at Musselburgh which would have been an option. Ampleforth is dropping back to a mile today which is slightly surprising but he could take it up early (has always run close to the pace). He has had to be stoked up early on a few of his races yet he has always finished in the frame (3313) so he appears to be genuine and a decent might well suit. He also has a low draw which should be favourable over this distance. Putting him up as a win bet for the purposes of the competition but I've backed him each way as I'd be hopeful of him at least hitting the frame.

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD - Weds 26 Oct 1st selection a non runner now! 7.35 Kempton Just a quick one here as not best at 2yr old races but Goldream makes plenty of appeal to me having appeared on the AW recently. Made an encouraging debut in a decent Newmarket maiden when 6th, stepped up on that next time out again at Newmarket when 3rd behind the very impressive Most Improved who has since been 3rd in Dewhurst (G1) beaten less than a length, the rest of that maiden has worked out extremely well with the 2nd winning next time out impressively, 6th and 9th all won next time out and several others have finished placed since and looks a typically strong maiden. Found a Go Dolphin improver too good on first try on AW but still beat the rest of the field comfortably, did too much upfront last time out in testing conditions and should be much more at home back on the AW from a good draw and on what looks a workable mark if he can return to the Newmarket maiden form. 1pt win Goldream 6/1 VC

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD - Weds 26 Oct 3:50 Musselburgh - Lexington's Bay - Back Has a big chance here. Won his last 2 and the way he has won suggests that today's increase in trip to 2m should suit him aswell. He seems to appreciate the trip the further they go and looks a genuine stayer. Not many of these are in firm and string Market support this morning looks pretty telling 1pt win @ 2/1 Bet365 BOG

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD - Weds 26 Oct A very tricky little race a few of these look like the could be pretty handy in the future, trainer J.Harrington has the jolly ''Burn and Turn'' but the mare has not been on a course since May so am going to pass her over. Am happy to put my stake on not just the horse but a female jockey i,ve always liked and she's brung me many a nice pay day alog with her brothers. Yipp Miss Nina Carberry has a nice ride in the last and must run a big race, trainer M.Fitzsimons's 6yr old mare has been 2nd in both her only two starts, the ground today is unknown but if she goes on it she must have a real chance of getting her head in front on the 3rd time of asking. When it comes to female jockeys Miss Carberry is one of the very best in the business with her on-board must be a big positive for a a place at the very least. Punchestown 5:30 - Blue Jig Lady. 0.5 e/w bet 6/1 Ladbrokes. Good luck N. Safe round.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD - Weds 26 Oct 1655 musselburgh sleepy blue ocean 1pt win sp a winner of 4 all weather over 5/6 furlongs, back on turf again after a 8th placed effort last time at ayr, 22 ran on good to soft, now good ground with robert winston on board could go close

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD - Weds 26 Oct 4.55 Musselburgh - Captain Royale - 12/1 Betfred Hugh Taylor tipped this one last time out and i was close to backing him but thought the 6f on heavy ground off this mark would be too much for him. Back down to 5f here with Shane B Kelly claiming 5lbs he's off a very favourable mark. Loves cut in the ground and won over 5f in a class 4 handicap last year. Decent draw to sit close to the leaders and hopefully pick it up late on.

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD - Weds 26 Oct MOSCOW CHANCER 4.35 Haydock. 1 point win. Pulled up o chase debut on Saturday, which was, apparently, a surprise to all concerned. Expected to to do much better and so with getting in off the same mark again today, I get the impression he'll do much better.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD - Weds 26 Oct Talk Of Saafend 5.15 Nottingham. 1 point win. Can win this if putting it all in. Should have the race run to suit and jockey does quite well in these events. Handicapper puts him in off 52 and that gives him every chance today. Trip and ground is fine. 9/1 Victor Chandler (bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD - Weds 26 Oct Night Bets;

Goldream - Kem 7.35 (0.5ew 8-1 BET365 BOG) Open-looking nursery with some quite sharp divergences of opinion between the prices available at the two early price bookies, Bet365 and PaddyPower. The form of Goldream's CD second has worked out well so far, as a couple of the horses behind him have since come out and won maidens. Since that Kempton run, Goldream was a beaten favourite in a soft ground maiden at Newcastle, having been given what looked like a woefully misjudged front-running ride by Keiran Fallon. I fancy Luca Cumani will ensure that he won't make the same mistake on his handicap debut.

Dan Donnelly - Kempton 6:35 This is a rather poor maiden tomorrow and im hoping my selection eeks out a bit more improvement, and if it does so it should be involved at a nice price. Finished 8th of 9 on debut when going off at 11/2 and on its last run i thought it ran a fine race when unfancied, finished 4th of 10 behind Triple Charm at a price of 40/1. Interestingly Gask has two runners in the race but my selection seems to have a better chance than the other one, Heavenly Games. I will have an e/w punt at what should be a good price. E/W @ 33/1 Hills BOG

1st selection a non runner now! 7.35 Kempton Just a quick one here as not best at 2yr old races but Goldream makes plenty of appeal to me having appeared on the AW recently. Made an encouraging debut in a decent Newmarket maiden when 6th, stepped up on that next time out again at Newmarket when 3rd behind the very impressive Most Improved who has since been 3rd in Dewhurst (G1) beaten less than a length, the rest of that maiden has worked out extremely well with the 2nd winning next time out impressively, 6th and 9th all won next time out and several others have finished placed since and looks a typically strong maiden. Found a Go Dolphin improver too good on first try on AW but still beat the rest of the field comfortably, did too much upfront last time out in testing conditions and should be much more at home back on the AW from a good draw and on what looks a workable mark if he can return to the Newmarket maiden form. 1pt win Goldream 6/1 VC