ultravires Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Tuesday 25 October 2011 Home Draw Away BPP Juventus v Fiorentina (19:45 BST) 1.76 3.75 5.8 100.73 % Wednesday 26 October 2011 Home Draw Away BPP AC Milan v Parma (19:45 BST) 1.38 5.2 11 100.79 % Atalanta v Internazionale (19:45 BST) 3.6 3.35 2.3 101.11 % Cesena v Cagliari (19:45 BST) 2.86 3.25 2.8 101.45 % Chievo v Bologna (19:45 BST) 1.87 3.5 5.4 100.57 % Genoa v AS Roma (19:45 BST) 2.68 3.35 2.88 101.89 % Lazio v Catania (19:45 BST) 1.72 3.8 6.5 99.60 % Napoli v Udinese (19:45 BST) 2.24 3.3 3.75 101.61 % Novara v Siena (19:45 BST) 2.52 3.25 3.2 101.70 % Thursday 27 October 2011 Home Draw Away BPP Palermo v Lecce (19:45 BST) 1.58 4.2 7 101.39 % Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October An interesting round this week. Cesena v. Cagliari Goals should be at a premium in this match. Cesena have been awful in general this season but particularly up front. Cagliari meanwhile are an organised side with a pretty mean D. Cesena played Siena at the weekend and dropped away to Siena. The home side were favoured but once again the performance was bad from Cesena. There just doesn't seem to be any glimmer of hope for them at the moment. There just isn't enough going on up front at the moment. Mutu is missing, and although he isn't great anymore, he is still their best player up front. Cagliari have had a great start to the season. They kept their momentum moving at the weekend with a 0-0 home draw against Napoli. Nap's have been sleeping a little of late but that is still a good result. The match was more open than the score suggests and both sides hit the woodwork. Cagliari are a very solid side. Unfortunately they have lost their key CB Astori to a fractured leg but as a whole they are still solid. Biondini, Conti and Nainggolan are a solid midfield 3 with a little bit of everything. Cossu is the key man in the hole and Nene is a good striker at this level. My instinct says this will go under, but the odds reflect that. IMO Cesena will really struggle to worry Cagliari in this match. It should be a tight match but if I see any team winning it is the away side. Cagliari win - 2.70 - 4 points - Bet365 Napoli v. Udinese This is the biggest match of the round for sure. Both are in similar situations having to juggle two competitions and they are having different degrees of success. Nap's are struggling in Serie A of late, but obtaining positive results in their tough CL group. Udinese are doing well both domestically and in Europe (EL). Both have tough schedules coming up but this match will take their focus entirely. Napoli drew at the weekend in a pretty open, but ultimately even match against Cagliari. They have struggled to maintain momentum in Serie A and despite being at home this match will be very tough. The front 3 have not been on top form so far this season. Lavezzi looks increasingly frustrated during matches while Hamsik has been inconsistent. Cavani relies heavily on both of them so as a unit they've been faltering. Defensively they have been pretty good and their general organisation is also good. They have a full squad for the match and we should see all the big boys in this one. Udinese have defied critics once again and Guidolin is having to play down talk of winning the league. Their success so far has been based on their great D game so far. They still have flair up front but their game is based more on keeping solid throughout the pitch and then breaking quickly. They've conceded one goal in seven games and will be confident of a result in this match. Another full squad so we should also see their best XI. In the past I would have thought there would be goals in this match, but this time I am not so sure. Both have good and organised defences. Napoli have faltered up front recently so cracking Udinese will be hard. Likewise I think Udinese will have a heard time creating chances. I'm not going on the under line but I do think this match is more even than the odds suggest and I'll take the away side on a positive line. Udinese +0.25 - 2.075 - 5 points - Bet365 Chievo v. Bologna Despite their similar tallies in the league I see two quite different sides in this match. Chievo have always been a solid home side and their only wins this season have been at home (Napoli, Genoa). They have been winless for 3 games since then but they aren't terrible results. They would have perhaps looked for a win away to Cesena but a draw is fine. A draw against Juve is perfectly fine and a 1-0 loss away to Inter is not bad. They now come into a home game against a Bologna looking for the 3 points. They've got a strong XI for this match and with Pallissier and Moscardelli up front they have goals against the lesser sides. Bologna were absolutely woeful against Lazio last night. it was always going to be a tough match but there was no fight or desire in their play. Ramirez-Di Vaio-Acquafresca is a potentially dangerous front 3 but there has been little evidence of that so far. Without those 3 popping they are a flat team and that is what I saw last night. Travelling to Chievo is probably easier than hosting Lazio, but not by that much. It's certainly not a game they will be relishing. The odds are not great but just good enough for me to back the home side in this one. Bologna are shite at the moment. Chievo -0.5 - 1.825 - 4 points - Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October Juventus v. Fiorentina I was mulling this one over and have decided to go in. This is a big match tonight. These teams dislike each other and both are under relative pressure to get a result. They both took the lead twice only to go away with 2-2 draws at the weekend. The hysteria around Juve is dying down a bit now. They are still unbeaten, but draws against Bologna, Catania, Chievo and Genoa take the edge off a bit. They now enter a really tough schedule and momentum is imperative. I think Juve will play a more conventional 4-3-3 tonight. Vidal-Pirlo-Marchisio is their best midfield for sure and it's time to drop these under-performing wingers. The strikers are a bit harder to guess. Matri in the centre, flanked by Vucinic and one other - probably. Their forward line has yet to really click this season. They still have D issues. Lichsteiner has plugged the right flank well enough. Chiellini is currently underwhelming at LB while Barzagli/Bonnuci is a decent partnership at best. La Viola are under pressure right now, or rather Sinisia is. There were a lot of boo's at the weekend, and despite backing from Jovetic, I think a result tonight is needed. Fiorentina face a few selection issues tonight though. Cassani is out so Di Silvestri will play RB. Montilivo is suspended so the midfield may look like this: Behrami, Munari, Lazzari/Vargas. That is all a bit flakey. I like La Viola's chances tonight purely because of their front 3. Cerci, Gila, Jovetic is an all round good forward line. A half fit Gila is still a positive addition. Meanwhile Cerci and Jovetic are players that will run at defenders with pace and trickery. Jovetic in particular has real class and can create as well as finish chances. Cerci on Chiellini could be a key battle, while Gila hustles in the centre. This match should be a battle as both sides need a result. I feel both have goals in them and both have proven that they can't hold a lead at the moment. I looked at over 2.5 and BTTS and have gone with the latter. Both teams to score - 1.83 - 3 points - Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zlatan4Ever Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October Hi everyone. I follow the Italian SERIE A. I live in Italy and I usually bet heavy on 3 teams every week. You can't always win, but I think that my profits are very encouraging. I invite everyone into following my picks!! I'm going to give from now on 3 sure picks everytime there is serie A: For this weeK: MILAN - PARMA /MILAN TO WIN @1.35 (book-totosi) stake 10/10 I would like to say that Parma's defence just sucks this year. I don't want to sound rude and offensive, but other than Giovinco I would not see any sort of problem for the AC Milan side. Floccari will be out for the Parma offense, while for AC Milan, Thiago Silva will be out in the middle of the defense, while Aquilani and Boateng, key players in the Milan comeback against Lecce will start from the begining. Ibrahimovic is VERY hungry. I would like everyone to also consider playing IBRA to score at anytime during the match. PALERMO - LECCE / PALERMO TO WIN @1.50 (book-totosi) stake 10/10 Palermo's strenght is playing at home. This year they are continuing to prove and demonstrate that at home they are a devasting force. Palermo mister is starting with Pinilla and Hernandez, with Zahavi behind. I think this will be the key of the game. I would also like everyone to know that Tomovic is not a central defender in Lecce but he is playing in the middle; Oddo is very old and is not helping Lecce's terrible defense at all. I see a very very easy win for Palermo. Juventus - Fiorentina / JUVE TO WIN @ 1.73 stake 9/10 Juventus is looking forward to win this game. Finally from the begining of the year, I think we will see the most complete Juventus. Only Buffon, goalkeeper will be missing. The centerfield composed by Vidal - Pirlo - Marchisio - Pepe with Matri and Vucinic finally playing together will be devasting against Fiorentina. I would like to remind everyone that Montolivo will not be of the match for Fiorentina. I would also like everyone to consider that Fiorentina's coach, Mihajlovic has a very hot patatoe to peal. If he looses he will most probably be kicked in the rear. Considering what Italian newspapers are writting and SKY SPORT, the players don't want him anymore. A suffered match but Juve will prevail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halav Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October 2 warnings: Lazio Hernanes (midfield key player) is out. Coach Edy Reja has to reinvent his midfield due to an injury crisis. Hernanes is the latest addition to the list of absentees along with Mauri, Gonzalez and Matuzalem. Udinese Di Natale (key striker) has not even made the trip to his hometown club, as he is still carrying an injury, while Mauricio Isla has also been left behind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dylan Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October Excellent write ups ultravires. I'm still weighing up some for the rest of the week, but for tonight I'm also going for goals in the Juve game; Juve vs Fiorentina - over 2.5 goals 2.0 at William Hill (2 units) There's been at least 2 goals in all of Juve's home games this season and I can see some more tonight. As ultravires says this Fiorentina midfield looks a little weak and that is compounded with the loss of Montolivo for this match. The way Juve play with their possesion football its the midfielders in the team (Pirlo, Marchiso, Vidal etc) who see most of the ball and if your midfield isn't up to scratch then the team may end up being easily over run. I'm not sure that Jovetic or Gilardino are the best players in terms of tracking back and helping the team defend so it could be a long night defence wise for Fiorentina. If this is the case then I can see no reason why Juve couldn't be getting 2 or 3 goals themselves tonight as they have enough quality going forward to unlock even the best Serie A defences. Fiorentina are likely to have to play quick football on the break in an attempt to create scoring opportunities and luckily for them they have the attacking players who can do this. Cerci is a direct runner and could have fun running at Chellini, Jovetic has the ability to create something out of nothing and if those two can get in and around the penalty area then Gilardino is as good as most in taking his chances and it will be a huge boost for Fiorentina that he's now back fit. :hope Also i've just read that the Siena manager is thinking of changing 7 of his starting 11 for the match against Siena. Does anyone know if this is true / likely. Its strikes me as a strange decision given that Novara would present an excellent chance to pick up three points. I was thinking goals in this game but a Siena team without Brienza or D'Agostino could struggle to make chances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October I watched a bit of Juve and Fiorentina at the weekend. Both sides looked knackered late on. Especially Juve. Not sure how that will effect things tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October Thankfully Jovetic delivered yet another moment of class. It was one of very few opportunities for Fiorentina so I'm perhaps a little fortunate. It's worth noting Jase. A few players looked deadout towards the end, particularly Pirlo. Juve have a tough schedule coming up too. EDIT - overall I was impressed with Juve. They pressed really well in the first 45 and totally shut out Fiorentina. A bit sharper up front and they'd have been home and dry by HT. Second half was a lot flatter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October It will be interesting to see if Udinese continue to drift on the market. Even without Di Natali they'll be bloody hard to break down and it's rumoured Napoli will rest Cavani. It will be a tough battle and Udinese +0.5 may go above 2.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dylan Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October Juventus v. Fiorentina Both teams to score - 1.83 - 3 points - Bet365 Juve vs Fiorentina - over 2.5 goals 2.0 at William Hill (2 units) Good start to the midweek action in Serie A :ok Just quickly on tomorrows matches Atlanta vs Inter – over 2.5 goals 2.05 at bet365 (2.5 units) A clean sheet against Chievo isn’t yet enough to convince me that Inter’s defensive woes are over. That was a very open game and both teams could have added goals. Atalanta and their attacking players in particular are high in confidence and form, and they will be looking to exploit any defensive issues that Inter still have. Moralez, Denis and Schelotto have all been excellent this season. Atalanta have also scored in all but one game this season so there is clearly goals in them. Inter despite my concerns defence wise are still strong going forward, they have plenty of choices in attack and Sniejder seems to be back fit and will begin to pull the strings again. Napoli vs Udinese – Napoli to win 2.05 at Sportingbet (2 units) For me without Di Natalie there is very little chance that Udinese can win this match. He already has 6 goals this season and is so important to them and the way they play. They will still remain strong in defence and midfield but Napoli will keep plugging away and I think eventually they’ll get something to go their way, whether it be a set piece or a bit of Cavani magic. I'll be shocked if Cavani is rested for a match of this magnitude given Napoli's little slip in form lately. Palermo vs Leece – Palermo -1AH 2.0 at bet365 (2.5 units) I think Palermo might be going for a big result on Thursday night as after two back to back away losses as they will be looking to get back on track. Home form has always been there saviour over the last season or so and I have no reason to think they won’t be able to record a decent win against a hapless Leece. Admittedly it was a strong first half performance from Leece at the weekend, but second half they looked dreadful when faced with a lot of Milan pressure. I think Palermo’s natural game at home is one of high pressure and if they can do that then Leece may struggle again. Leece are still missing their first choice GK as well. I wont be taking it but I also looked at over 2.5 Palermo goals for this match at 3.0. Decent odds for a team that is already averaging 3 a game at home this season. :hope Still weighing up a couple of bets on the Novara and Cesena games... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October I'm intrigued by the Napoli-Udinese market. It will be a packed San Paolo tomorrow that will be roaring Napoli on. Udinese are the ultimate dog team though and Napoli are currently 1.90 and may continue to shorten. Despite rumours I would be surprised if Cavani didn't start. I see tomorrow's teams as very even and I'd probably even give Udinese the shade in D and midfield. Napoli obviously have a big advantage up front but they haven't been clicking of late. Of course, tomorrow is a big game so they may all come together and put on a masterclass but I would not want to take Napoli at anything even near 1.90 expecting that to happen. It sure will be an interesting match. Dylan - Overs in Ata-Inter was one I was looking at but bottled. I can see Milan tanking Parma tomorrow but I'm always a bit iffy with Milan on high lines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zlatan4Ever Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October Hi everyone. I follow the Italian SERIE A. I live in Italy and I usually bet heavy on 3 teams every week. You can't always win, but I think that my profits are very encouraging. I invite everyone into following my picks!! I'm going to give from now on 3 sure picks everytime there is serie A: For this weeK: MILAN - PARMA /MILAN TO WIN @1.35 (book-totosi) stake 10/10 I would like to say that Parma's defence just sucks this year. I don't want to sound rude and offensive, but other than Giovinco I would not see any sort of problem for the AC Milan side. Floccari will be out for the Parma offense, while for AC Milan, Thiago Silva will be out in the middle of the defense, while Aquilani and Boateng, key players in the Milan comeback against Lecce will start from the begining. Ibrahimovic is VERY hungry. I would like everyone to also consider playing IBRA to score at anytime during the match. PALERMO - LECCE / PALERMO TO WIN @1.50 (book-totosi) stake 10/10 Palermo's strenght is playing at home. This year they are continuing to prove and demonstrate that at home they are a devasting force. Palermo mister is starting with Pinilla and Hernandez, with Zahavi behind. I think this will be the key of the game. I would also like everyone to know that Tomovic is not a central defender in Lecce but he is playing in the middle; Oddo is very old and is not helping Lecce's terrible defense at all. I see a very very easy win for Palermo. Juventus - Fiorentina / JUVE TO WIN @ 1.73 stake 9/10 Juventus is looking forward to win this game. Finally from the begining of the year, I think we will see the most complete Juventus. Only Buffon, goalkeeper will be missing. The centerfield composed by Vidal - Pirlo - Marchisio - Pepe with Matri and Vucinic finally playing together will be devasting against Fiorentina. I would like to remind everyone that Montolivo will not be of the match for Fiorentina. I would also like everyone to consider that Fiorentina's coach, Mihajlovic has a very hot patatoe to peal. If he looses he will most probably be kicked in the rear. Considering what Italian newspapers are writting and SKY SPORT, the players don't want him anymore. A suffered match but Juve will prevail. 1 DOWN 3 TO GO !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zacharael Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October Hey vires, is it true Di Natale won't be in the squad for Udine ? I read at http://www.udinese.it/ENG/script/view_flsh_news.php?id=1763 that only Fabbrini, Floro Flores and Torje are selected as strikers for the trip to Naples Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dylan Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October Yeah he's definitely out, that squad list is correct. Also out is Isla and there has been some suggestions that Basta isnt 100% fit either. The first two are big losses for Udinese thats for sure. Still no confirmation on the Siena squad this morning, but Gazetta have discounted Terzi, Rossetini,Gazzi, Mannini, D’Agostino and Brienza from the probable line ups. Will probably wait until teams are named but could be worth backing Novara in some way here. They've been ok at home this season with 4 points picked up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boriman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October 1 DOWN 3 TO GO !!! :cheers god job pal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitch Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October 8-Bet Multiple: Determined to get it! If you feel that any of these bets has a chance of losing (with reasoning), please let me know :) I'm being extra safe here because my last 2 8-Multiple bets each lost because of a 90th minute goal :wall AC Milan v Parma (Backing AC Milan @ 1.35) Palermo v Lecce (Backing Palermo @ 1.54) Chievo v Bologna (Backing Chievo OR The Draw @ 1.21) Lazio v Catania (Backing Lazio OR The Draw @ 1.19) Levante v Sociedad (Backing Levante OR The Draw @ 1.2) Napoli v Udinese - Over/Under 3.5 goals (Backing Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.29) Atalanta v Inter - Over/Under 1.5 Goals (Backing Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36) Genoa v Roma - Over/Under 1.5 Goals (Backing Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.3) Total odds: 8.39 on Betfair AC Milan v Parma: Milan's morale must be pretty high right now considering they won from 3-0 down in the first half, as well as the fact that history is on their side considering Milan have won Parma at home 8 times out of the last 9 games at San Siro. I also agree that Ibra will most likely score and I just can't see them dropping points on this one. Palermo v Lecce: Palermo are really solid at home and have won all 3 games (4-3 vs Inter, 3-2 vs Cagliari and 2-0 vs Siena) this season. While Lecce are one of the poorest teams this season in Serie A, although they did win 0-2 against Bologna (not that impressive) at the start of the season and have drawn 0-0 @ Genoa in their last away match. The 3-4 loss against Milan would've almost definitely lowered morale in the squad but I decided to take the draw here as well just in case the loss vs Milan motivates them more for this game. These 2 teams have played each other 5 times @ Palermo with Palermo winning 4 of them and drawing 2-2 in the last match they played here in 2010. Chievo v Bologna: Chievo have never lost to Bologna at home during the past 8 matches (since 2001). They're a pretty solid team at home, while bologna are really struggling and are currently 19th in the league with a win (@ Novara), a draw (@ Juve) and 5 losses. Although the only points they got this season were away, I find it extremely unlikely that they'll win this game. Lazio v Catania: Not entirely comfortable taking this one but I find it unlikely for Catania to take full points here. Lazio are in a very good run of form and although they did lose a home match this season already, it was the very first home match vs Genoa while Catania have only lost once this season (@ Genoa), they drew their other 2 away matches 3-3 and 2-2 @ Novara and Fiorentina respectively. Lazio has more quality than these 2 sides and should win tonight, and if not, I've got the draw covered as well to keep safe. Levante v Sociedad: A game where I should probably be backing a home win w/o the draw but like I already mentioned, I'm being extra safe... Levante are the surprise package of La Liga so far, winning 6 games in a row now against teams such as Real Madrid, Malaga and Villareal. If they win today then they'll go back to the top of the table above both Barca and Real Madrid. Sociedad have lost 3 of their 4 away games this season. These 2 teams have played each other 5 times at Levante since 2004 with Levante winning 4 and losing 1. I'm taking the draw as well in case Levante's fairy tale takes a hit at home tomorrow against an unlikely team. Napoli v Udinese: Udinese don't have Di Natale who makes a huge difference in their attack. 2/4 away games for Udinese this season ended 0-0 against Cagliari and Atlanta, while the other 2 away games ended 1-1 @ Milan and 0-2 @ Lecce in the season's opener. As for Napoli, they're pretty inconsistent and unpredictable but goals haven't been coming easy this season for them. Although 2/3 home games ended over 2.5 this season, I think this is going to be a pretty tight match between 2 defensively organized teams where both teams really won't want to lose (Udinese haven't lost yet this season) while Napoli have already lost at home to Parma in their last home match. I see this ending 1-0, 0-0 or 1-1 even though the last 3/4 matches at the San Paolo ended over 2.5. Decided to take under 3.5 instead of under 2.5 just now in case Napoli find their scoring boots and/or the match becomes open and we see a 2-1 or 1-2. Atalanta v Inter: Inter kept a clean sheet for the second time this season although it was vs Chievo at home. Away from home this season, Inter have conceded 10 and scored 8 goals with all 4 games coming over 2.5 (4-3, 3-1, 1-3 & 2-1). Inter have failed to score only once this season vs Roma (0-0) in the 2nd match day. Atlanta on the other hand have had a 1-0 vs Palermo, 2-1 vs Novara and 0-0 vs Udinese at home this season and have failed to score only once this season in the 0-0 draw vs Udinese. BUT if you look at the h2h between both teams it shows that this match usually sees goals.. since 2001 (home and away), only 3 out of 14 matches did either team fail to score, with 2 of those at San Siro where Inter won 1-0. So the last 7 times these 2 teams have met @ Atlanta, both teams scored with only 1 exception in 2008 where Inter won 0-2. (I've changed this bet from BTTS to over 1.5 now) Only 1 of the last 11 games between these 2 sides @ Atlanta has ended in Under 1.5. Genoa v Roma: 6 of Genoa's 7 games this seasons ended over 2.5 with the 7th being a 0-0 home draw vs Lecce. As for Roma, they've had 3/7 games go over this season, the only "away" match of which was the Rome derby. Now check out their H2H since 2007: Genoa 4-3 Roma 20/02/2011 Roma 2-1 Genoa Roma 3-0 Genoa Genoa 3-2 Roma Roma 3-0 Genoa Genoa 3-1 Roma Roma 3-2 Genoa Genoa 0-1 Roma 24/11/2007 7 of their past 8 games were over 2.5 but since I'm being extra safe with this bet, I'm taking over 1.5. Total odds of 8.39 :hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spkutano Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October Milan vs Parma Pick: Under 2.5 goals Probable starting eleven: Milan: Abbiati; Abate, Nesta, Bonera, Antonini; Nocerino, Van Bommel, Aquilani; Boateng; Ibrahimovic, Robinho Parma: Mirante; Zaccardo, Paletta, A.Lucarelli, Gobbi; Valiani, Morrone, Jadid, Modesto; Giovinco; Pelle It is strange to suggest Under 2.5 goals on Milan's game, specially after 4:3 victory over Lecce at Sunday. But I don't think such efficient match could be repeated. Imagine, just imagine how many goals would Milan score if Lecce won't score 3 goals in the first half. I think Milan would score one or two goals. Anyway, I expect a completely different match here. Parma will most probably play 'catenaccio' at San Siro. The next reason for my pick is that Milan have some problems with the injuries. Milan coach Alegri will be without Alexandre Pato and Thiago Silva as both are injured. Mathieu Flamini and Gennaro Gattuso are long term injuries, while Clarence Seedorf should return in the squad. On contrary, Parma coach Franco Colomba has all players available as Hernan Crespo will most likely return to the squad. The final reason for my pick is the tradition. It is almost unbelievable, but 7 of the last 8 mutual games ended with Under 2.5 goals. Here are the results: 12.02.2011. AC Milan - Parma 4:0 02.10.2010. Parma - AC Milan 0:1 24.03.2010. Parma - AC Milan 1:0 31.10.2009. AC Milan - Parma 2:0 16.02.2008. Parma - AC Milan 0:0 22.09.2007. AC Milan - Parma 1:1 28.01.2007. AC Milan - Parma 1:0 17.09.2006. Parma - AC Milan 0:2 I believe this is gonna be one more low scoring match between Milan and Parma. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zlatan4Ever Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October 8-Bet Multiple: Determined to get it! If you feel that any of these bets has a chance of losing (with reasoning), please let me know :) I'm being extra safe here because my last 2 8-Multiple bets each lost because of a 90th minute goal :wall AC Milan v Parma (Backing AC Milan @ 1.35) Palermo v Lecce (Backing Palermo @ 1.54) Chievo v Bologna (Backing Chievo OR The Draw @ 1.21) Lazio v Catania (Backing Lazio OR The Draw @ 1.19) Levante v Sociedad (Backing Levante OR The Draw @ 1.2) Napoli v Udinese - Over/Under 3.5 goals (Backing Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.29) Atalanta v Inter - Over/Under 1.5 Goals (Backing Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36) Genoa v Roma - Over/Under 1.5 Goals (Backing Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.3) Total odds: 8.39 on Betfair AC Milan v Parma: Milan's morale must be pretty high right now considering they won from 3-0 down in the first half, as well as the fact that history is on their side considering Milan have won Parma at home 8 times out of the last 9 games at San Siro. I also agree that Ibra will most likely score and I just can't see them dropping points on this one. Palermo v Lecce: Palermo are really solid at home and have won all 3 games (4-3 vs Inter, 3-2 vs Cagliari and 2-0 vs Siena) this season. While Lecce are one of the poorest teams this season in Serie A, although they did win 0-2 against Bologna (not that impressive) at the start of the season and have drawn 0-0 @ Genoa in their last away match. The 3-4 loss against Milan would've almost definitely lowered morale in the squad but I decided to take the draw here as well just in case the loss vs Milan motivates them more for this game. These 2 teams have played each other 5 times @ Palermo with Palermo winning 4 of them and drawing 2-2 in the last match they played here in 2010. Chievo v Bologna: Chievo have never lost to Bologna at home during the past 8 matches (since 2001). They're a pretty solid team at home, while bologna are really struggling and are currently 19th in the league with a win (@ Novara), a draw (@ Juve) and 5 losses. Although the only points they got this season were away, I find it extremely unlikely that they'll win this game. Lazio v Catania: Not entirely comfortable taking this one but I find it unlikely for Catania to take full points here. Lazio are in a very good run of form and although they did lose a home match this season already, it was the very first home match vs Genoa while Catania have only lost once this season (@ Genoa), they drew their other 2 away matches 3-3 and 2-2 @ Novara and Fiorentina respectively. Lazio has more quality than these 2 sides and should win tonight, and if not, I've got the draw covered as well to keep safe. Levante v Sociedad: A game where I should probably be backing a home win w/o the draw but like I already mentioned, I'm being extra safe... Levante are the surprise package of La Liga so far, winning 6 games in a row now against teams such as Real Madrid, Malaga and Villareal. If they win today then they'll go back to the top of the table above both Barca and Real Madrid. Sociedad have lost 3 of their 4 away games this season. These 2 teams have played each other 5 times at Levante since 2004 with Levante winning 4 and losing 1. I'm taking the draw as well in case Levante's fairy tale takes a hit at home tomorrow against an unlikely team. Napoli v Udinese: Udinese don't have Di Natale who makes a huge difference in their attack. 2/4 away games for Udinese this season ended 0-0 against Cagliari and Atlanta, while the other 2 away games ended 1-1 @ Milan and 0-2 @ Lecce in the season's opener. As for Napoli, they're pretty inconsistent and unpredictable but goals haven't been coming easy this season for them. Although 2/3 home games ended over 2.5 this season, I think this is going to be a pretty tight match between 2 defensively organized teams where both teams really won't want to lose (Udinese haven't lost yet this season) while Napoli have already lost at home to Parma in their last home match. I see this ending 1-0, 0-0 or 1-1 even though the last 3/4 matches at the San Paolo ended over 2.5. Decided to take under 3.5 instead of under 2.5 just now in case Napoli find their scoring boots and/or the match becomes open and we see a 2-1 or 1-2. Atalanta v Inter: Inter kept a clean sheet for the second time this season although it was vs Chievo at home. Away from home this season, Inter have conceded 10 and scored 8 goals with all 4 games coming over 2.5 (4-3, 3-1, 1-3 & 2-1). Inter have failed to score only once this season vs Roma (0-0) in the 2nd match day. Atlanta on the other hand have had a 1-0 vs Palermo, 2-1 vs Novara and 0-0 vs Udinese at home this season and have failed to score only once this season in the 0-0 draw vs Udinese. BUT if you look at the h2h between both teams it shows that this match usually sees goals.. since 2001 (home and away), only 3 out of 14 matches did either team fail to score, with 2 of those at San Siro where Inter won 1-0. So the last 7 times these 2 teams have met @ Atlanta, both teams scored with only 1 exception in 2008 where Inter won 0-2. (I've changed this bet from BTTS to over 1.5 now) Only 1 of the last 11 games between these 2 sides @ Atlanta has ended in Under 1.5. Genoa v Roma: 6 of Genoa's 7 games this seasons ended over 2.5 with the 7th being a 0-0 home draw vs Lecce. As for Roma, they've had 3/7 games go over this season, the only "away" match of which was the Rome derby. Now check out their H2H since 2007: Genoa 4-3 Roma 20/02/2011 Roma 2-1 Genoa Roma 3-0 Genoa Genoa 3-2 Roma Roma 3-0 Genoa Genoa 3-1 Roma Roma 3-2 Genoa Genoa 0-1 Roma 24/11/2007 7 of their past 8 games were over 2.5 but since I'm being extra safe with this bet, I'm taking over 1.5. Total odds of 8.39 :hope:hope:hope I wouldn't be so confident into playing Lazio as their entire centerfield is absent for this match. Also consider that Almiron and Lodi are not bad players. Catania's centerfield is in good hands. Lazio is playing with Sculli, Klose and Cissè this will without doubt give the team more exposure to be scored on. I see this game as an OVER 2.5., but to answer your question I wouldn't bet on it. Under 3.5 for Napoli-Udinese is not worth the odd.... Napoli's defense is ridicolous for me. Floro Flores (ex-Naples) and Torje can put Cannavaro and Aronica in ugly situations... Its a classic italian game open to all results. I wouldn't bet on this game either. 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Hitch Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October I wouldn't be so confident into playing Lazio as their entire centerfield is absent for this match. Also consider that Almiron and Lodi are not bad players. Catania's centerfield is in good hands. Lazio is playing with Sculli, Klose and Cissè this will without doubt give the team more exposure to be scored on. I see this game as an OVER 2.5., but to answer your question I wouldn't bet on it. Under 3.5 for Napoli-Udinese is not worth the odd.... Napoli's defense is ridicolous for me. Floro Flores (ex-Naples) and Torje can put Cannavaro and Aronica in ugly situations... Its a classic italian game open to all results. I wouldn't bet on this game either. Okay, thanks a lot for your input mate :) I wish I would've checked for replies earlier before I put the bet cuz I probably would've removed the Napoli bet since like you mentioned, it's not worth it. But anyways, here's to hoping Di Natale makes a significant difference to Udinese's attacking third and to Lazio avoiding defeat :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dylan Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October Team news as expected really in the Novara vs Siena game so i'll take a small gamble on Novara to win 2.40 at bet365 (1.5 units) A lot of changes for Siena in this match and I think they might suffer for it. Novara play at a high tempo at home and they could really take advantage of a disjointed Siena team. In Serie B last season these teams met twice and it was a draw on both occasions. I think there is a good chance now that Siena are weakened for Novara to get the win. Their home form has been ok this season with 4 points from 9, but last season they were very strong at home only losing once I think. They will need to return to somewhere near that form to stand a chance of staying up so getting wins at home is imperative to them. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October A total wash out for me tonight. I feel a little aggrieved at the Cagliari result as I don't think it was a pen. for Cesena at all. It was a really dire match anyway. Udinese were really flat tonight. I don't think Napoli were that great, but they didn't have to be as they were rarely threatened. I didn't see any of Chievo so can't comment. Surprised to see them turned over by Bologna but that is just how this season is going. I will take a break at the weekend as I'm away. Best of luck to anyone who goes in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zlatan4Ever Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October Hi everyone. I follow the Italian SERIE A. I live in Italy and I usually bet heavy on 3 teams every week. You can't always win, but I think that my profits are very encouraging. I invite everyone into following my picks!! I'm going to give from now on 3 sure picks everytime there is serie A: For this weeK: MILAN - PARMA /MILAN TO WIN @1.35 (book-totosi) stake 10/10 I would like to say that Parma's defence just sucks this year. I don't want to sound rude and offensive, but other than Giovinco I would not see any sort of problem for the AC Milan side. Floccari will be out for the Parma offense, while for AC Milan, Thiago Silva will be out in the middle of the defense, while Aquilani and Boateng, key players in the Milan comeback against Lecce will start from the begining. Ibrahimovic is VERY hungry. I would like everyone to also consider playing IBRA to score at anytime during the match. PALERMO - LECCE / PALERMO TO WIN @1.50 (book-totosi) stake 10/10 Palermo's strenght is playing at home. This year they are continuing to prove and demonstrate that at home they are a devasting force. Palermo mister is starting with Pinilla and Hernandez, with Zahavi behind. I think this will be the key of the game. I would also like everyone to know that Tomovic is not a central defender in Lecce but he is playing in the middle; Oddo is very old and is not helping Lecce's terrible defense at all. I see a very very easy win for Palermo. Juventus - Fiorentina / JUVE TO WIN @ 1.73 stake 9/10 Juventus is looking forward to win this game. Finally from the begining of the year, I think we will see the most complete Juventus. Only Buffon, goalkeeper will be missing. The centerfield composed by Vidal - Pirlo - Marchisio - Pepe with Matri and Vucinic finally playing together will be devasting against Fiorentina. I would like to remind everyone that Montolivo will not be of the match for Fiorentina. I would also like everyone to consider that Fiorentina's coach, Mihajlovic has a very hot patatoe to peal. If he looses he will most probably be kicked in the rear. Considering what Italian newspapers are writting and SKY SPORT, the players don't want him anymore. A suffered match but Juve will prevail. 2 DOWN 1 TO GO!:hope:hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spkutano Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October Palermo vs Lecce Pick: Over 3.5 goals Probable starting eleven: Palermo: Tzorvas; Pisano, Silvestre, Migliaccio, Balzaretti; Acquah, Barreto, Della Rocca; Zahavi; Hernandez, Pinilla Lecce: Benassi; Oddo, Tomovic, Esposito, Mesbah; Obodo, Strasser, Giacomazzi; Cuadrado, Grossmuller; Corvia I expect goals at Renzo Barbera. Both teams are able to play efficient matches and they proved that. Even more, Palermo have Fabrizio Miccoli back to the squad and it is an important reason for my pick. Palermo played efficient matches at home and two of the three matches ended with Over 3.5 goals. Here are the home results of Palermo: 02.10. Palermo - Siena 2:0 21.09. Palermo - Cagliari 3:2 11.09. Palermo - Inter 4:3 On other side Lecce played an incredible match against Milan at Sunday. Lecce was leading 3:0 after the first half with the goals scored by Guillermo Giacomazzi, Massimo Oddo and Carlos Grossmuller. It is clear that the players confidence is very high, even Lecce lost that match. I expect Lecce to score here. For this match Lecce will be without injured Julio Sergio, David Di Michele, Stefano Ferrario and Souleymane Diamoutene. The tradition also support my pick as three of the last four matches at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Palermo have ended with Over 3.5 goals. Here are the results: 26.09.2010. Palermo - Lecce 2:2 15.03.2009. Palermo - Lecce 5:2 26.10.2005. Palermo - Lecce 3:0 20.02.2005. Palermo - Lecce 3:2 I expect another high scoring match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOTTI3 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October Palermo-Lecce=over (1.80) Totosì stakes 5 / 10 Palermo position 10° points 10 Lecce position 19° points 4 Preview: Palermo: unavailable: Di Matteo, Della Rocca Lecce: unavailable: Di Michele, Diamoutene, Ferrario, Julio Sergio. Palermo have a score in-house w3-d0-l0 goals scored 9 goals against 5 while Lecce has a score out of the house w1-d1-l1 goals scored 2 goals against 3. The Palermo is in good shape, especially when playing friends within the walls where he won all three games scoring 9 goals and conceded 5. Lecce is a very weak team and is one of the candidates for relegation. For the visiting team to score is not a problem but the main problem concerns the defense department, which until now has been 13 goals. At the end as the two teams in the head to head past have always given the show tonight I'm expecting a game full of goals. Earlier last season: 2-2 (Palermo at home) and 2-4 (Lecce at home). Lecce in the last five has never won. In the last 5 games playing at home against Palermo, Palermo has won 4 times, I have matched 1 and Lecce has won 0. The goal difference is 15-6 in favor of Palermo. :hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zlatan4Ever Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October Palermo vs Lecce Pick: Over 3.5 goals Probable starting eleven: Palermo: Tzorvas; Pisano, Silvestre, Migliaccio, Balzaretti; Acquah, Barreto, Della Rocca; Zahavi; Hernandez, Pinilla Lecce: Benassi; Oddo, Tomovic, Esposito, Mesbah; Obodo, Strasser, Giacomazzi; Cuadrado, Grossmuller; Corvia I expect goals at Renzo Barbera. Both teams are able to play efficient matches and they proved that. Even more, Palermo have Fabrizio Miccoli back to the squad and it is an important reason for my pick. Palermo played efficient matches at home and two of the three matches ended with Over 3.5 goals. Here are the home results of Palermo: 02.10. Palermo - Siena 2:0 21.09. Palermo - Cagliari 3:2 11.09. Palermo - Inter 4:3 On other side Lecce played an incredible match against Milan at Sunday. Lecce was leading 3:0 after the first half with the goals scored by Guillermo Giacomazzi, Massimo Oddo and Carlos Grossmuller. It is clear that the players confidence is very high, even Lecce lost that match. I expect Lecce to score here. For this match Lecce will be without injured Julio Sergio, David Di Michele, Stefano Ferrario and Souleymane Diamoutene. The tradition also support my pick as three of the last four matches at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Palermo have ended with Over 3.5 goals. Here are the results: 26.09.2010. Palermo - Lecce 2:2 15.03.2009. Palermo - Lecce 5:2 26.10.2005. Palermo - Lecce 3:0 20.02.2005. Palermo - Lecce 3:2 I expect another high scoring match. Miccoli is starting from the bench and most probably will not be of the game. Except for the second half. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThusPrider Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October Dont usually bet seriously on Serie A, but am abit bored tonight: Palermo vs Leece Previous matches between these two sides suggest this should be another high scoring match. Leece especially will try to get something out of the game following their bad start to the season with only 1 win and 1 draw sitting in the relegation zone. Palermo are quite confortable, midtable with a game in hand; this one and should be looking to build on their progress and get things back on track after losing to giants AC and Roma. Palermo win 8/13 3/10 Over 2.5 7/10 3/10 Over 3.5 7/4 1.4/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dylan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A - 25-27 October Juve vs Fiorentina - over 2.5 goals 2.0 at William Hill (2 units) :ok Atlanta vs Inter – over 2.5 goals 2.05 at Bet365 (2.5 units) :\ Napoli vs Udinese – Napoli to win 2.05 at Sportingbet (2 units) :ok Palermo vs Leece – Palermo -1AH 2.0 at Bet365 (2.5 units) :ok Novara to win 2.40 at Bet365 (1.5 units) :\ 3/5, only a small +2.6 unit profit. Should have been more though, disappointed that the Inter game stayed under, a couple of great chances for either team and Atalanta missed a late penalty. Well done all other winners this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zlatan4Ever Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Re: Italy - Serie A, 29-30th October Originally Posted by Zlatan4Ever Hi everyone. I follow the Italian SERIE A. I live in Italy and I usually bet heavy on 3 teams every week. You can't always win, but I think that my profits are very encouraging. I invite everyone into following my picks!! I'm going to give from now on 3 sure picks everytime there is serie A: For this weeK: MILAN - PARMA /MILAN TO WIN @1.35 (book-totosi) stake 10/10 I would like to say that Parma's defence just sucks this year. I don't want to sound rude and offensive, but other than Giovinco I would not see any sort of problem for the AC Milan side. Floccari will be out for the Parma offense, while for AC Milan, Thiago Silva will be out in the middle of the defense, while Aquilani and Boateng, key players in the Milan comeback against Lecce will start from the begining. Ibrahimovic is VERY hungry. I would like everyone to also consider playing IBRA to score at anytime during the match. PALERMO - LECCE / PALERMO TO WIN @1.50 (book-totosi) stake 10/10 Palermo's strenght is playing at home. This year they are continuing to prove and demonstrate that at home they are a devasting force. Palermo mister is starting with Pinilla and Hernandez, with Zahavi behind. I think this will be the key of the game. I would also like everyone to know that Tomovic is not a central defender in Lecce but he is playing in the middle; Oddo is very old and is not helping Lecce's terrible defense at all. I see a very very easy win for Palermo. Juventus - Fiorentina / JUVE TO WIN @ 1.73 stake 9/10 Juventus is looking forward to win this game. Finally from the begining of the year, I think we will see the most complete Juventus. Only Buffon, goalkeeper will be missing. The centerfield composed by Vidal - Pirlo - Marchisio - Pepe with Matri and Vucinic finally playing together will be devasting against Fiorentina. I would like to remind everyone that Montolivo will not be of the match for Fiorentina. I would also like everyone to consider that Fiorentina's coach, Mihajlovic has a very hot patatoe to peal. If he looses he will most probably be kicked in the rear. Considering what Italian newspapers are writting and Sky SPORT, the players don't want him anymore. A suffered match but Juve will prevail. 3 on 3 !! :nana:nana:nana Record Played 3 Wins 3 Lost 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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