BBOTD - Monday, 24th October

[cpo]

3.20 Southwell Dr Red Eye win @ 6/1 Bet365 This has ran well on both starts at this course in the past and should go well here today. The race I think will be run to suit with a few front runners in here. I expect Dr Red Eye to just sit off the pace and put his stamina to good use in the final couple of furlongs. Jockey and trainer do well at this track.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Monday 24th Sadeeks Song - Leicester 3:00 Really interesting that Frankie Dettori only has the one ride tomorrow and although he is up against an odds-on favourite, i think it has every chance in this race. The Al-Zarooni stable are very hot at the moment and this horse has only had the 3 runs to date but its second run was extremely impressive when running out a ready winner by 5 lengths at Nottingham. Was then upped 3 grades to Class 2 and ran extremely well, 3rd to Oceanway only going down by 3/4 of a length. Colombian looks a worthy favourite but this horse has more scope for improvement and i think it is a nice price. WIN @ 5/1 Paddy Power BOG

[Petersson1984]

Re: BBOTD Monday 24th 13:30 Leicester Jordaura Win (6,00) Bet365 The 5 year old, are properly in the form of his life. He won 2 of his 3 recent runs and this distance seems to suit him well at the moment. He goes up in grade, but he previous won at this level. Jordaura recent form. 9-5-1-3-1 The jockey Winston was booked for the two previous runs too. He had a decent season but haven showen his best in the last two weeks.

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD Monday 24th 2.50 Southwell Another interesting 2yr old event with just the six runners. Wicked Wench is the first to cross out, showed nothing on debut and unfancied will need to improve leaps and bounds. Mousie was kept busy early season and did win a fast ground maiden at yarmouth over 5f, ran just ok in 2 claimers later on including one over 6f and didnt look as if she stayed and that will be stretched even further on this surface and was well held on reappearance and wolverhampton last week. Scrooby Doo boasts plenty of course form but attitude has stunk at times including when finally winning last time out in a weak course maiden has 12lb to find with Quite A Thing and main hopes rely on her course form but just cant touch her anymore with her tail flashing and attitude and also yard in bad form. Sonko is another that boasts course form with a nursery win off 49 over a 5f, has struggled off marks in top 60's which means he has a bit to find again with Quite A Thing infact 15lb if Quite A Thing is really worth a mark of 84 is questionable but even so. Le King Beau has travelled well in his races out in front he has attracted plenty of money in races to suggest he has been working well and perhaps looks a little overpriced at current prices if the drop back in trip has the desire effect, drops 2f today having looked comfortable in front for 3/4 of the race over a mile last time out and this just might be the key to him and is defenetily worth a saver against questionable principle who should take all the beating on ratings. That all said Quite A Thing is the class act in the field well clear on official ratings, rated 84 been generally kept to small fields and therefore might not be worth the mark officially but even so has raced against some good sorts and should take all the beating if coping with the fibresand, both wins have come on the polytrack including impressive debut win when making all and would be no surprise to see them push on with her and I believe she would be an odds on shot back on polytrack so could be a steal at 11/8 with a yard going ok and has a 22% strike rate on surface. 1pt win Quite A Thing 11/8 pp

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD Monday 24th Sou 3.20 - Double duchess - win at 7/1 bog Paddy Power Has a good record here with 2 wins and a 2nd from her 3 runs over CD She's having her 3rd run back from a 6 month break and inproved from first to second runs, beaten 11 lengths then 4 lengths. Both those runs were on polytrack where she's never done much so I'm pinning my hopes on the return to fibresand showing her in improved light. isn't badly handicapped - just 3 lbs above last win and dropped 4 lbs for her two latest outings Could be a problem for her in that there are two or three other front runners in the field and when she's won she's won by making all in slow races, so obviously it might not help if she has to go too fast because of other front runners. But she's well drawn to get an early lead Interesting early prices on this race - only 3 firms have priced it up. Paddy Power are 7/1, Wm Hill have her as 4/1 favourite and bet365 have her as 5/1 joint favourite. So I'm pretty sure she'll go off shorter than 7/1 !............:ok

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD Monday 24th 1:30 Leicester - Daneside - 1pt @ 16/1 (PaddyPower) With doubts being fairly easy to have over the market leaders in this C4 mile contest, siding with a bigger priced runner mightn't be a bad idea at all. The one that catches the eye is the Gary Harrison owned & trained Daneside - a progressive and lightly-raced 4 year old gelding. Whether or not the handicapper has caught up with him is debatable but off a mark of 72, with the capable Matthew Lawson taking off a further 5lbs, he may have one more win in him when things work out favourably. Daneside comes here on the back of a couple of bad efforts, hence why he's available at such a large price. However, one of those runs came at Kempton on polytrack and he just didn't seem to be able to give his running on that surface. The other, last time out, was on very heavy ground at Haydock and that could possibly explain why he couldn't make up any ground from the rear of the field. It's fairly easy to overlook those efforts and if he was coming here without having lined up in those races, he most certainly wouldn't be a 16/1 shot. If I just concentrate on Daneside's other 7 outings this season, his form reads an impressive 2-3-2-1-2-4-1. Since making his seasonal reappearance in June, he has progressed a total of 21lbs up the ratings and it's quite possible that there may be a little bit more to come. The main run I'm interested in came right before his pair of recent disappointments, as Harrison's charge ran out a most convincing winner over the stiff mile at Sandown. He travelled wide throughout - as he so often does - before taking up the running a couple of furlongs from home. It took him a little while to shake off his rivals but he was galloping away from them all the way to the line and eventually scored by 2¼ lengths off a mark of 66. That was a similar contest to this and although Daneside had plenty in his favour on that occasion, it was a run that confirmed he wasn't caught in the grips of the handicapper. He's 6lbs higher here but this stiff track should help being out the best in him and the fast ground shouldn't pose any problems, so at least he has conditions that suit this time. His trainer had 50 runners between February of 2007 and July of this year without gaining a single success but since August, his animals have lined up on 31 occasions and won 4 times (including this fellow twice). The owner-turned-trainer's yard are obviously going a lot better compared to their usual results and hopefully he can add another winner here. Today's jockey, Matthew Lawson, has 2 wins from 4 rides on Daneside and he's an exceptional 5lb claimer, so there's no better man to have on board. When I was looking at the race before any prices were available, I thought this fellow would be around the 6-8/1 mark, so to see him at 16's is a pleasant surprise. Yojimbo is currently rated as the best-priced 4/1 favourite and I'd imagine that's mainly down to the booking of Ryan Moore, as I'd question whether this animal is up to winning over a fast-ground stiff mile off a mark of 79. He could well be, but the price isn't exactly attractive and he's one to avoid here. Jordaura is an even more under-priced at 5/1, as he seems to be a softer ground horse and just mightn't appreciate this test. He's also up 5lbs in the weights for winning over 2f further at Bath (good-to-soft) and this is a completely proposition, even though he looks nicely handicapped on early 2010 efforts for John Holt. West End Lad has won his last two starts over this C&D but it'll take a career-best effort to win this and 8/1 looks skinny given that he's an 8 year old that the handicapper knows all about. Uppercut is an interesting contender here and a consistent 3 year old but he just mightn't be up to winning this. I suspect he'd be at his best when getting a strong gallop over 7f, so whether he'll have things to suit here is debatable. 12/1 is a nice price about him, so a small saver bet wouldn't do any harm. My Kingdom would be a gigantic price at 33/1 if he had more in his favour but again, I don't think he's after a stiff mile at all and he looked very poor on his last 3 runs for this yard. His debut for this yard, which was the race before disappointing last thrice, came over 7f at Newbury and he was a running-on 2nd of 15 in a much tougher contest. He's 4lbs lower here and down in grade but doubts over trip, ground and track would be enough for me to avoid getting tempted by such a big price. If he's around next year and available at that sort of price when things are more suitable, I'll definitely be on board. The others in the race don't interest me at all, even though I could be wrong to dismiss a couple of them so lightly. Regardless, Daneside looks massively overpriced at 16/1 and I'll have a medium stakes win bet on him. I would play smallish each-way stakes usually but I'm feeling greedy and it's worth chancing everything on the win bet as it's only 1/5 of the price for a place. Harrison's charge should run a big race if he's on song and hopefully he will be. Equally, he could run a shocker given his last couple of unimpressive outings but I'm sure they weren't his true running's and this is a much more suitable race for him to run in. The yard are also making a 300 mile round trip to visit Leicester for the first time and let's hope this fellow lands the £4k prize to pay for the petrol home!

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD - Monday, 24th October 3.30 Leicester Roger the dodger has come up with some surprise results of late, Steps winning the sprint at Doncaster for one - as even he admitted he didn't expect it to win. The yard are clearly in good form as the out of sorts Suhaili also bounced back from a terrible last time out run to win. Basically, anything they send out at present warrants respect. RUSSIAN AFFAIR hasn't ripped up any trees to date and finished well held in a maiden last time, however, he's in a handicap today and off 72 its clear the capable Varian could have some fun with him. The last run in hcaps is best ignored since the ground came up soft. He's expected to do better on this quicker surface. 10/1 VC Bet, 1 pt win

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD - Monday, 24th October 4.50 Southwell Gracies Gift has slipped to a very dangerous mark. Returned to this course where he has won 5 times over this distance he must have every chance. Decent jockey on board for this type of race and has shown that he is still in reasonable form and there is every chance he will get another win on the board here. 1 Pt win 13/2 Hills

[switzerland]

Re: BBOTD - Monday, 24th October 2.40 Redcar - Oxbow 0.5pt EW 25/1 VC Difficult day so I'm avoiding any short priced runners and taking a small speculative punt on a Godolphin outsider. I don't have any solid stats to back this up but I reckon if you followed the Godolphin Red and White hats in maidens over the last few weeks you would have done reasonably well. The Al Zarooni runners in particular. Take the Maidens at Newmarket last Wednesday where they had a 20/1 winner (their 5/2F finished 3rd) and a 14/1 winner (5/4F finished 5th). This obviously wont happen every day but Oxbow is worth a shot at 25/1 today. Well bred as you'd expect - by Shirocco out of a Nashwan mare. From memory Shirocco liked it soft and stayed well so this 1m 1f maiden should hold no fears on breeding. Henry Cecil has the odds-on fav who could bolt up but Chris Catlin on board certainly isn't a negative and I'm hoping Oxbow can hit the frame.

[Rökkurro]

Re: BBOTD - Monday, 24th October Am new here so hopes it ok to just join this if so.... Red 2.10 - Celestial Dawn 1pt win 7/1 bet365 Two solid runs lately in nurseries and not beaten too far in both of them. Back down to 5f should suit as maybe she just hasn't been seeing out the 6f fully. Should be in the mix I feel.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD - Monday, 24th October

Am new here so hopes it ok to just join this if so.... Red 2.10 - Celestial Dawn 1pt win 7/1 bet365 Two solid runs lately in nurseries and not beaten too far in both of them. Back down to 5f should suit as maybe she just hasn't been seeing out the 6f fully. Should be in the mix I feel.

:welcome mate! Enjoy the forum

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD - Monday, 24th October :welcome

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD - Monday, 24th October 2:10 Red Shadow @ Redcar - Been running in higher class races and was just beat on the line two runs back at Ripon.Runs off the same mark as last thre races and seems to act on any ground.Can go close again at a big price 0.5 pt E/W @ 20/1 VCBet

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD - Monday, 24th October Only one runner today for trainer and Ex Jockey Walter Swinburn and its in Race 5 on the card at Redcar. Today will be the fiilly's longest trip over 1m 6f hover she ran a close race over 1m 5f back on the 5th of Sep at Bath. Jockey A.Beschizza only has the 2 rides but i'd say this is the one he's come for. If the 3yr old filly can get the extra distance she must run a close race. Redcar 3:40 - Lady Barastar. 0.5 e/w bet 11/1 Stan James. Roll on the weekend.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD - Monday, 24th October 1520 southwell on the cusp 1 pt win 5/1 bet 365 twice a winner over course distance, has a good record at southwell only been unplaced once at the course,with martin harley on board for trainer richard guest, they have 22% strike rate

[kev2oo9]

Re: BBOTD - Monday, 24th October 4.20 southwell - Lady Elsie ew 20/1 pp Mccabe has a good record in 3yo+ handicaps at the track (12/94 overall and 4/12 this year )* combined with martin harley in these events they are 3/3* Debut for new yard today after previously being with haggas but did put in 3 ok runs on aw prev so if translating that to this surface , for which its sire Singspiel has a good record as does dams sirr*(Efisio, then looks overpriced.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD - Monday, 24th October 4.20 Southwell - Kingaroo - 22/1 Bet365 - E/W Crazy price on this one now as i'd have him down as about third/fourth favourite for this. Recently tried on turf and over trips too far which can all be easily discounted, nearly all his form is over 12f at Southwell and he doesnt perform at too many other places. Back down a mark of 58 with Billy Cray claiming 3lbs which his last win was off. Other potential pace setters here which is the main negative but he doesnt have to make the running, draw and course experience may mean he will get the lead here but it's not essential. Big each way chance imo.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD - Monday, 24th October 5:10 Redcar - Arch Walker - Back By far the most consistent type in this field and always runs his race. This looks his ideal trip and has been banging on the door recently. Every chance here with a good run almost guaranteed 1pt win @ SP