BBOTD 20th Oct

[jayalexander]

2:30 Brighton - Penang Cinta Won here last week and absolutely loves the track, with 13 runs, 6 wins, 3 seconds and 2 thirds! Same jockey as LTO, although carrying a 6lb penalty. Should be there or there abouts. 11/2 win - Will Hill (bog)

[Petersson1984]

Re: BBOTD 20th Oct 15:25 Carlisle Primrose Time E/W (17,00) Bet365 The experienced 8 year old mare, are back on the tracks after a 210 day break. The going seems to suit her well. All of her 6 wins or placed was at some sort of soft ground. The question is, how well Primrose Time will respond to her long break. She might need a run or two, to find back to her old form. She is a former course winner, and her knowledge of the course could help her. Primrose Time knows the surroundings and hurdles from her 4 runs at Carlisle. In those 4 runs, she won one, and placed one. Primrose Time recent form. 5-1-1-4-5 The jockey Alexander Voy gets his 10th race, whit the horse. Together they won two and placed in two.

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD 20th Oct 5.10 brighton night trade - been running well in defeat since joining ron harris and has edged up just 1lb for her recent goodwood near miss, when mugged close home. All wins have come on a fastish surface and back on GF here after running on slower last time 10/1 bet 365, 1 pt win

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD 20th Oct 15:55 Carlisle MOHI RAHRERE has a really decent record when running off a break, especially when compared to when he’s run races closer together and that could be one of the reasons to explain his dismal effort over hurdles last time. I still think there’s mileage in him off this mark when fresh and on softer ground, so he’s worth chancing in this contest as the market seems to have forgotten all about him. Trained by Barry Leavy, he’s only won twice from sixteen starts but both of those have come when not having run for three months prior and the summer break he’s had should have done him some good. The first of those wins came on his chasing debut on really testing ground over 2m4f on his seasonal reappearance last year when he stuck to his task well, handling the ground perfectly and looking like he’d stay a further, an impression further stated when running well after early jumping errors cost him any chance of winning when 3rd over 2m6f at Towcester (also off a break). It’s not like he doesn’t have winning form at today’s 3 mile distance as he has won over it before (again, after an absence!) although perhaps with a slice of good fortune as the odds-on favourite underperformed and was found to be lame behind after a poor jump in the closing stages. Mohi Rahrere might have won anyway and got very lonely in front but stuck on well enough to suggest that this trip was within reach, as long as not hitting the front 15 lengths clear with two hurdles to jump! He’s had one effort since, a poor effort over timber in a novice race but even after been given an almost six week break, it may have come too soon for him as he was beat pretty far out and the ground may have been just a little too quick for him too. Now back chasing, there’s a slight issue with his jumping on his past form but I’d expect the spin over the smaller obstacles would have done his confidence some good and his he’ll have surely improved his chasing skills over the summer break. The selection coming into a race “fresh” seems to be the key to him and I think that given he’ll get exactly that today (123 days off), softer ground which he seems to enjoy and the three mile trip that has been hinted at by the horse/connections alike could be his optimum, there could be definite room for improvement off his current mark of 112, perhaps a mark of 120 is well within reach today. It’s a tough race obviously with sixteen runners (hopefully no non-runners for each-way purposes!) but I think this horse will go well, with plenty to suit. The testing track is a slight unknown, but Barry Leavy has hinted that he believes he’ll stay three miles well, as the Summer National over 3m4f was considered in the spring so it perhaps won’t be much of an issue. Leavy himself is amongst the winners, having a winner over hurdles last week. His small-string of chasers seem to do quite well too, with 22/39 finishing in the top four over the past five seasons. He also has a profitable record when teaming up with today’s jockey in Danny Cook, they have a 15% strike-rate and a LSP of £32.50. With all this being said, a price of 16/1 is simply far too big. He has plenty to suit, a trainer amongst the winners, with both trainer and jockey only coming up to Carlisle for this one mount, racing over a distance that he has the potential to improve at and coming into the race off an absence which obviously suits, he has plenty in his favour. MOHI RAHERE; EW @ 16/1 William Hill (bog)

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD 20th Oct Carlisle 3.55 Horsham Lad win - 10/1 WH Impressive in a hunters chase last year and has won 2 pointers this season. Paddy Brennan booked and he seems unexposed on handicap debut. Difficult race, but I'd be surprised if this horse isn't better than his mark. Just hope he is fit after a break.

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD 20th Oct 3.55 Carlisle Soubriquet is very well handicapped if he rediscovers his form. 10lb lower than last win and likes this track. Ground not a problem so if he stays ok he should go very close.Been running well over these longer distances for a while so hopefully his turn is near. 1 Pt win 20/1 Bet365

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD 20th Oct 325 Carlisle: Gulf Punch EW 10/1 Boylesports Good competitive card at Carlisle today and many southern trainers making the long trip, this race is interesting with fancied runners from Tom George, Kim Bailey and Oliver Sherwood, however i'm siding with Donald McCains Gulf Punch, the 4yo filly was rated 109 last season and was mainly a solid consistent type in juvenile hurdles, the switch to the McCains immediately saw him take advantage of a dropping mark with a win at Cartmel over 2m6f, the furthest she had ran. Went up 10lbs for that and next time looked liked the winner two out at Sedgefield but weakened to finish fourth in a fair race for the track. Still 9lbs lower than her mark last year i'm sure there is another win the locker at some point and with Henry Brooke taking another 5lbs off this shorter trip on a testing track may be about ideal. 10/1 is too big in my view and worth an EW bet at least.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD 20th Oct Uncle Roger - Brighton 4:05 Liam Keniry's only ride of the day and i am going to back this. Has been dropped 5 pounds after its last run when near the back of the field at Warwick but this horse is still lightly raced and on its only run at Brighton on debut it was 2nd. It then Unseated on its next run when having the race wrapped up and losing out at a low of 1.01 in running. Made up for that on its 3rd outing though when he beat Key Addition by a nose and had Our Cool Cat back in 3rd. Our Cool Cat has since come out and won the Class 2 Ascot Sales Race. Has found its mark too high since but is now on a nice mark and can make its presence felt again. WIN @ 40/1 Coral

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD 20th Oct 15:35 Brighton Inquistress - Form is hit and miss throughout the career so hard to know when going to fire. Can be beaten 9l one race and then fires home the next off same mark. But is a CD winner in fact all turf wins and seconds are from this track. Does act on the going and I rate the jockey 3lb claimer Kieran O Neill. The three wins at track have come in at 7/1 , 12/1 and 12/1. Is 16/1 for this and worth a punt 0.5ew 16/1 boylesports.

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD 20th Oct Honest Strike - Wol 6.10 (0.5ew 20-1 WH BOG) Looked progressive last autumn when following up a third place at Wolverhampton by winning at Southwell (2nd then beat 3rd next time to frank the form). However, then left Henry Cecil and put up two completely rank performances on turf in Ireland back in June. Possible that may never reproduce the form he showed on the all-weather last autumn, but at 20-1 I'm going to take an each-way shot.

[switzerland]

Re: BBOTD 20th Oct Rivage D'Or 2:45 Thurles 1pt Win 11/4 PP BOG Rivage D'Or must have a great chance of winning this beginners chase. He was a very decent hurdler and is the highest rated of today's runners. He had a pipe opener a couple of weeks ago over fences when he ran ok. Hopefully Dessie Hughes will have touched up his jumping after that run and blown away the cobwebs. Rattan is the favourite but he has had a hard summer or racing and he finished a tired horse on his last run. Marlay Park could be the main danger as he beat Rivage D'Or convincingly the last time they met over hurdles. Rivage D'Or was conceding 12lbs that day but they meet off level today and the run under Rivage D'Ors belt might swing it. There are 3 Gigginstown runners and Davy Russell chose this fella. Reckon we could be seeing a lot of these colours over the coming months.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD 20th Oct Unsure why this horse is a crazy price as he was 2nd on his only start in a 3m P2P meeting back in May, anything like that performance could see him take this standard N/H flat race today at Carlisle. Both the trainer and jockey have been doing ok and both make the trip for just the two runners, today's trip and ground should also suit the selection as when he raced over 3m in his P2P it was good to soft, if anything today's going should be more up his street. Funny looking race that could fling up a funny result. Carlisle 5:30 - Regal Brook. 0.5 e/w bet @ 50/1 Coral. Horses don't know their price, 1st past the post wins.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD 20th Oct Bright 3.35 - methayel - win at 7/2 bog bet365 Improving 3 year old who won over this CD on similar ground last time out Is up 6 pounds for that win but can still run in class 6 He won easily that day although the margin was under a length he had travelled well, and was only nudged out to win Should be more to come !

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD 20th Oct HENRY CLAY 3.05 Brighton. 1 point win. Debutant and hard to know what to exactly expect. However, I do know he's expected to make up into a useful horse and pass the standard set in this race in good time. Therefore, with not much in the race standing out, it wouldn't be any surprise to see him go in at the first time of asking. Mark Johnston traveled a long way, so all in all would be well worth a bet. Trip and ground shouldn't hinder. 11/2 Boylesports.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD 20th Oct Eager To Bow 3.35 Brighton. 1 point win. Should do a bit better today, and trip nd ground not a problem. Handicapper gives him chances off a mark of 64 and should have the race run to suit. So, with the ability to go close, he has every possible chance. 11/1 Boylesports (bog)

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 20th Oct 3:15 Ludlow - Lava Lamp - Back By far and away the most consistent horse in this field and thus is considerably the easiest task he's faced in done time. Usually dies well at this sort of level and should have this run to suit so it would be disappointing if he wasn't good enough to win this 1pt win @ 2/5 Hills BOG

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD 20th Oct Earlier selection was a late non-runner :sad 20:10 Wolverhampton Thought CHOOKIE ROYALE would have gone on be a bit better than he's turned out but has recently looked like he was showing some of that potential. Has finished 2nd on his past two starts but still think there's some mileage in this mark. Track at Catterick far too sharp for him last time and this more regular 7f will be more up his street. Tough enough race but big danger now a non-runner, he's still a bit of value at 11/2. Chookie Royale; 1pt Win @ 11/2 Boylesports (bog)

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD 20th Oct B5.10 Serenas Pride 0.5pt E/W 25/1 Boylesports The horse seems to save its best runs for undulating tracks such as todays and is on a reasonable mark if on a going day. The trainers last 2 runners have won and the draw of stall 4 looks to be favourable. I'm a big fan of the trainer whose horses often go in at nice prices under the radar and this looks overpriced to me in a wide open race.

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD 20th Oct 8:10 Summer Dancer @ Wolverhampton - Has been gradually coming down the weights and now runs off its lowest weight since June 2009.Ran pretty well at Kempton in two class 4 races last month not getting beat by much.Drops in class tonight to a class 5 and Micky Fenton takes the ride on the horse which he has ridden before.Trainer Paul Midgley has a great profit of +44.50 this year with 4+ year olds in handicaps this year and this horse can add to that tonight 0.5 pt E/W @ 14/1 Coral

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD 20th Oct 8.10 Wolverhampton Cuthbert 22/1 VC Bet This is horse is back below his last winning mark and returns to the all weather here. I think he is a better horse on the all weather and he looks a big price here for a yard in form and on a winnable mark .

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD 20th Oct Sorry meant to add this horse is a CD winner and the stable are operating at a 50% strike rate at the moment. He is well drawn and Shane Kelly does well at the track.