BBOTD 30th of September

[Petersson1984]

16:05 Ascot Twin Soul Win (34,00) PaddyPower I admit, this is a long shot but whit only 6 runners and a decent history at AW tracks, i´ll give her the benefit of the doubt. Some of her competitors previously showen amazing form and she will need to ride her best race to date at a turf track, to get the win. Her two recent races was at Sailsbury and Newmarket ended 5/11 and 3/11. Know Twin Soul got a couple of extra furlongs to ride and that might be help her. Twin Soul over all form : 0-4-6-4-1-1-1-5-3 The jockey David Probert gets his 7th race whit Twin Soul. 3 of the previous 6 was won.

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD 30th of September A4.40 Elrasheed 0.5pt E/W 8/1 Ladbrokes After my 10/1 shot got beaten a nose today (at 3/1 sp), I'm too distressed for any "hail marys" :lol so I wish the guys at the top of the leaderboard all the best in what has been another entertaining month. I'm hoping De Souza can do the weight here because 7-12 is very low but the horse looks to have an excellent chance. It's lightly raced and the trainer is in form and knows how to improve horses throughout the season. Hopefully De Souza will give it a patient ride and get involved towards the final few furlongs. The ground is fine and I'm hoping it stays the trip (more likely than for some of its rival IMO). A repeat of its performance at Newmarket a few runs back would see it go very close.

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD 30th of September 3.30 ascot Dubawi dancer - re opposes the favourite, the bells o peover, who beat him at Beverley, but he's better off at today's terms and looks weighted to win another race soon. up in grade but thats reflected in price. 10/1 paddypower, 1 pt win

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD 30th of September Win or bust in these late stages of the BBOTD 15:50 Fontwell CALLISTO MOON was brought down last time when held in a modest affair at Sedgefield but I'm sure he's much better than a horse rated 114 (taking into account the 1lb out of the handicap he is today) over fences and could go well if given a better ride. Six time winner on the flat but really sprang to life in August when winning a poor Bangor handicap by 29 lengths. Although flattered by the winning margin, he did it well and was only put up 7lbs by the handicapper, fairly lenient. He was last seen at Sedgefield when he was brought down when held in 3rd. A combination of the run coming too soon, trying to lead in a race being run at a ridiculously quick pace and perhaps a slightly too sharp trip did it for him. It wasn't his true running I'm sure. He makes a big jump in class here but there's still progression there I feel, and although if his jockey makes the same mistake of trying to lead, he'll give the horse no chance at all, he should go well tracking a good gallop which I hope he'll do. May improve by 10lbs and still get beaten but this horse is still unexposed over fences and he's overpriced at 18/1, win for BBOTD purposes. CALLISTO MOON; WIN @ 18/1 William Hill (bog)

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD 30th of September 2:20 Ascot - Azameera - 1pt @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes) The betting suggests this is a wide open contest but with the early pace likely to be slow, plenty of the field will be unsuited by how this race pans out. Backing those towards the front end could pay dividends and Azameera looks to be the one to side with. There is a risk that her free-going ways get the better of her - as she can often take quite a keen hold - but she has won in muddling affairs before and possesses all the traits you want from a horse running in a race like this. Clive Cox's 3 year old filly has only run on 6 occasions, winning a maiden and a pair of handicaps off marks of 78 (7f Leicester) & 86 (8f Salisbury). She pulled hard on both occasions but won in the style of a very useful horse in each, suggesting that there's a fair amount more to come from her when she matures mentally. Today, Azameera runs off a mark of 89 and that's sure to be a mark she can defy in time, whether or not today will be the day is the question. Hopefully 'yes' is the answer! Last time out - at this course over a mile - Cox's charge ran a solid 2½ length 4th of 12 in a fairly good fillies' race (simplistic form is good). That run was on the back of a 2 month lay off and she shaped as if needing it. Along with that, she hit the front about 2f out and she seems better when running down the leaders late on, rather than being the one up top waiting for the closers to come at her. It's quite hard to know what's right or wrong in that situation but if she can be held onto for longer here, I expect that she'll be finishing off as well as anything in the field. Clive Cox has his yard in good knick and comes here with just this runner. Adam Kirby - 3 from 5 on board her - has just one ride too before heading off to Wolverhampton for a near full book of rides and I doubt he's coming down for the good of his health. The pair are doing well of late, with 3 winners and a couple of places from their last 10 runners and Azameera looks capable of adding another win to the slate. The ground will suit, the track suits and the race will be run to suit, so a price of 7/1 looks a bit too big. I think she'll definitely run a good race (bar disaster) but some of the opposition are useful and therefore I'll just play small win stakes. Hopefully she'll go well.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD 30th of September 425 Fontwell: Scotsbrooke Cloud 1pt (8/1 PP) Long distance handicap and looks competitive, the fav is poor value due to being trained by Charlie Longsdon, all his horses are shorter than they should be at the minute. This gives a bit of value elsewhere and I like the top one Scotsbrooke Cloud, very progressive and ran well last time when second to William Hogarth who got first run on him at Ffos Las, fancy him to turn the tables here over this longer trip. Will love the ground and is a course winner. A solid EW bet for those that way inclined at a value price of 8/1.

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD 30th of September 4.25 Fontwell Tae Kwon Do is in great form at the moment. Up in grade and distance here but has won his last two hurdles races here and on a career high mark must still have a great chance. Biggest worry is the distance but if he stays he will be hard to beat. 1 Pt win 12/1 Bet365

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD 30th of September Fontwell 5.00 Merry Terry win - 10/3 Lads WH My big priced fancy from last night is not the price I expected him to be, so can't catch Monte. Going with the more solid selection for the year title :D Won very easily on seasonal reappearance at Newton Abbot lto. Was in great form in pointers before that and I think his average form from 2009 and 2010 is well behind him. Looks an improved horse and the 9lb rise for the win lto will be offset by Stephen Clements' 6lb claim. Plenty of recent winners here and most of the field comes in form, but many of them are flattered and my selection could be very well handicapped. I'd be surprised if he doesn't finish in the first three and has every chance to take this contest.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD 30th of September Interesting runner from the Sue Smith's yard, the 5yr old gelding has only run the once and that being on the flat. He started out life with Saeed bin Suroor back in 2008, he had one race and came home a close up 3rd over a mile. Its very possiable that Sue Smith took or brought in an injured horse and has nused him back to race order, time will tell. I've always liked jockey Henry Oliver and he has 3 rides for Sue today, so i'll take a wee chance on horse and Jockey. Hexham 4:50 Manahej - 0.5 e/w bet @ 22/1 Boylesports. Best of luck with your Friday.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD 30th of September Lord Ryeford - Fontwell 3:50 Won very easily two starts back at Bangor over 2m 4f, beating Lord Jay Jay by 8 lengths. Ran in a hot Listed contest last time out and ran ok, 7th to Stewarts House. Back down in grade here and a drop of 1 pound and should go very close here back at this level, i think it is overpriced. WIN @ 16/1 Betfred BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 30th of September 2:40 Fontwell - Red Harbour - Back Highest rated of these and receiving wright from the other 2 runners aswell. Made a cracking chase debut lto when narrowly beaten by Siberian tiger and looks to have been found a good chance to gain compensation here 1pt win @ 4/11 Bet365 BOG

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD 30th of September GOLDEN TEMPEST 2.20 Ascot. 0.5 points each way. Trip, ground and weights are fine and Hughes a decent booking. Race should be run to suit and so I'd be surprised if not fighting out the finish. 8/1 Bet365 BOG

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD 30th of September Red Skipper 2.30 Hexham. 0.5 points each way. Will need to be on top form to beat the favourite, but take the favourite out the race and it's ours for the taking I think. We can find more than showing too, as thinks too much at times, so with no trip and ground worries would be a good value each way bet. 7/1 William Hill (bog)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD 30th of September 2.20 Ascot - 1pt win Tuscania @ 15/2 (Hills) Been a bit unlucky this year. Ran a sound race on seasonal return before possibly being unsuited by the track at Goodwood. Was desperately unlucky the time after when never getting a clear run until way too late. Ground went against it last time out when there was cut and conditions should suit much more today on good ground with a flatter track in favour.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD 30th of September 6.15 Wolves Sarah's Art @ 22/1 Skybet Hasn't been in the greatest of form this year but did win back in December off 75 so is off a winnable mark here. Adam Kirby takes over the steering today and this horse ran probably its best race for a while last time out under tender handling. Hopefully go well at a big price.

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD 30th of September 3:15 January @ Fontwell - Won two races back to back earlier in the year both over 2 miles and steps up to 2 mile 2 furlongs today.Usual joskey Stephan Clements takes the ride and claims 7lb.Comes from a small yard but can get involved at a big price 0.5 pt @ 50/1 VCBet

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD 30th of September 6:30 Dundalk - Shamooda Oxx and Murtagh team up once again for this maiden, which is one of two Aga Khan runners. The owner has a very high 2yo win rate of 25% (16 of 64) at Dundalk over the past 5 seasons, while Oxx and Murtagh are 25% and 29% respectively, which is the highest figures for trainer and jockey competing in the race. It's Shamooda's first time on AW, but at the price available and attractive stats, this looks like a value bet. 14/1 win vcbet (bog)

[cc75]

Re: BBOTD 30th of September 6.45 Wolves: Venir Rouge 1pt win @ 14/1 Ladbrokes BOG Stable on fire at present and this horse back down to last winning mark. C&D winner in the past and returned to the flat after an unsuccessful spell over the obstacles, could have a great chance today.

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD 30th of September 19:45 Wolv Bilko Park - Is a course winner and distance winner in claimers and sellers. Has not fared to well in handicaps and has tumbled from a rating of 88 as a 2 year old to the all time low of 62 for today. LTO ran CD finishing 12l behind Justbookie dot com. Had a wide draw and just tucked in the back of the pack left too much to do. Was carrying 1lb more than just bookie that day and is 11lb lighter for today with a better draw hopefully a change of tact 0.5EW 14/1 Victor chandler.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD 30th of September 8.45 Wolverhampton - Ugo - 25/1 Coral E/W Some interesting jockey and trainer stats attached with this one as well as the drop in trip looking in need. Eddie Ahern comes here for two rides and is 7 wins and 3 places in his last 24 rides for this yard. Heather Main also has a good record here, 4 wins and 5 places from the last 15 runners she's sent here. Ugo has a good draw here and with plenty of pace on should get a race run to suit. Dropped from 11f to 9 1/2 furlongs today which based on his last two runs could be a help, he's not travelled too badly but hasnt picked up. Could go well at a big price.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD 30th of September

8.45 Wolverhampton - Ugo - 25/1 Coral E/W Some interesting jockey and trainer stats attached with this one as well as the drop in trip looking in need. Eddie Ahern comes here for two rides and is 7 wins and 3 places in his last 24 rides for this yard. Heather Main also has a good record here, 4 wins and 5 places from the last 15 runners she's sent here. Ugo has a good draw here and with plenty of pace on should get a race run to suit. Dropped from 11f to 9 1/2 furlongs today which based on his last two runs could be a help, he's not travelled too badly but hasnt picked up. Could go well at a big price.

Eddie Ahern is absent and Adam Kirby now rides, intent of the booking still there which is mainly what i look out for rather than the actual jockey.