BBOTD Friday 23rd of September

[Aidymac]

Premio Loco - Newmarket 2:25 - Group 2 - 1 Mile - Good To Firm I think Premio Loco has a major chance of following up his latest victory. It has had a poor year of late up until last time out where it came late to be victorious at Doncaster on the same ground in a Group 2. The way it stayed on means 1 mile will be perfect, but we already know 1 mile is perfect as it has won over the trip 9 times in total. Chris Wall has started to come into form and although it was never won over the Rowley Mile, it wont have a better chance than this. I expect it to challenge late and power home inside the final furlong under a strong George Baker drive. Emerald Commander has been snubbed by Frankie Dettori which gives me signals it is not first preference. On a formline it has been running ok but may struggle to beat a few of these. Poets Voice would have a big chance if coming back to its best. Ran a fine race in Meydan in March when 2nd to Wigmore Hall and a reproduction of that would see it go close but ran very poorly last time out finishing last and had a couple of his rivals ahead. Ransom Note comes into the equation also especially as its last win came here on the Rowley course. However has looked a small bit laboured on its last few runs, staying on late in the day when the race is over. May bounce back but i would not be confident. Karam Albaari is easily passed over with the form it is in, has struggled to be any bit competitive at all lately and the price reflects that. Libranno i personally dont fancy. Is a front runner that i think will be gobbled up come the final furlong, a couple of very good stayers in the race that i think are a bit too classy for it. Tazahum has a chance but the dreaded Richard Hills is on board. Was 2nd in a Group 3 last time out behind Green Destiny , that was a very good run but im not convinced at all and its far too short in the betting. Really fancy Premio Loco to go close here, with Ransom Note being the main danger followed by Tazahum. WIN @ 9/2 VC BOG

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September Sirvino - 4.10 Nmk (1pt win 10-1 CORAL) Seasoned handicapper who managed runner-up in a fairly weak Listed race last time out after a couple of runs at 14f (possibly too far), and a run before that in which he was badly hampered on the bend. This doesn't seem like an especially strong contest either, so the 10-1 on offer is tempting, particularly since all the other early price bookies are offering only 6-1 or 7-1.

[Petersson1984]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September 15:00 Newmarket Lyric Of Light Win (3,00) Bet365 This 2 year old got an great start to her career, whit 2 win over simular distance. The horses is the higheste rated in the race and can she stay up front, then she got an excellent chance, to use her speed on the final furlong. In form jockey Frankie Dettori won 28,5 % af his last 39 runs.

[anokazr]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September 2.25 Newmarket Tazahum 3-1 Betfred 1pt worried to be taking on Aidymac but having never seen premio loco run im looking at his form and he doesnt look to be a miler to me. mine had a massive last run, there was a length between him and the front at goodwood a month before that, and has in a nutshell been bloody impressive for months. all at a mile, obviously like most im not a fan of hills, but hes not as rubbish as everyone goes on

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September 4.45 newmarket jewelled - holding form well this season but often undone by a sedate pace in a small field. shouldnt be any such problems in a field this large. hughes booked to ride too. 14/1 paddypower, 1 pt win

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September

2.25 Newmarket Tazahum 3-1 Betfred 1pt worried to be taking on Aidymac but having never seen premio loco run im looking at his form and he doesnt look to be a miler to me. mine had a massive last run, there was a length between him and the front at goodwood a month before that, and has in a nutshell been bloody impressive for months. all at a mile, obviously like most im not a fan of hills, but hes not as rubbish as everyone goes on

Premio Loco has had 21 runs over the trip of 1 mile and has won 9 of them and been placed 3 other times!! He has won 12 races, 9 of them over 1 mile... Fair to say your analysis of its form is wrong. :cheers

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September 14:05 Haydock Questions could be asked on the well-being of POINT NORTH after two average/poor efforts and a break of 63 days. However, even though he's drawn quite wide he should get the race run to suit and on ground he likes, is far too big a price at these odds. Progressive earlier in the year, winning a AW handicap off 6lbs lower than he runs off today, he's generally been quite highly tried in handicaps since then, running in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot (good ground that day probably didn't suit but ran with credit nonetheless) and in a competitive 10f race at Ascot (trip too far, too keen, likely a problem too). He needs to bounce back from these poor efforts but I think he could well do, especially now dropped to a mark of 86 which looks well within range on his efforts earlier in the season. He won his maiden on soft ground so the surface he encounters today will not be a problem. With plenty of guaranteed pace in the race, they should go a good gallop which will help him settle. 11/1, even without the BOG concession is far too big. Even with an absence to overcome, Jeremy Noseda's yard are going well, it's his only runner at Haydock and he can obviously get one ready. POINT NORTH; Win @ 11/1 Stan James

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September I have ruined my body over the last few days in Ibiza but have had a nice break from betting, but now I am back fully recharged and raring to go! 4.45 Newmarket Destiny Blue 1 pt win 20/1 William Hill Going to try and get the winner of this very tricky handicap. The one I like is the Jamie Osbourne trained Destiny Blue who I think this year has had excuses for a few of his runs. His return to action in May can be forgiven as he was returning from a break of 197 days. After this run he won at Yarmouth over a mile quite comfortably on quick ground but then disappointing next time out at Carlisle on much softer ground. He then followed that up with 2 good 2nd's to Agent Archie and Set to Music. Set to Music is now rated 110 so that was a very good effort. That day he only just started to tire in the final furlong over 10f. Today's trip could prove to be ideal for this horse and although he has ran well on softish ground in the past, I think he is a much better horse on quick ground. I think his last 2 runs can be ignored as they both came on good to soft ground and he should have ideal conditions today. The fact he stays further than 9f is also a positive as he will have to see out the trip well if he is going to get involved today. He races prominently which judging from yesterdays racing at Newmarket, is the place to be. He also has a low draw which is where most of the market leaders are drawn so this looks the best place to be. Trainer and jockey don't have the best of records at Newmarket but both are in decent enough form at the moment and this horse looks to have a great chance today. The favourite here is far too short for my liking on what he has achieved so far. The one piece of form behind Set To Music makes Destiny Blue very interesting for me in this race, given that he has his ground and also may have the perfect trip.

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September CPO, that's at 4:45, edited it for you. 4:45 Newmarket - Viva Vettori - e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365, 5 places) Taking a chance on the impossible happening here by backing Viva Vettori to win a race on turf, something which hasn't happened in 24 previous attempts. However, it's not for the want of trying and eventually everything will fall into place for David Elsworth's 7 year old, as he's got plenty of talent. Things just need to go right for him (I'd like to see him produced early) and key to that is a solid gallop (to ensure he settles), which is very likely in this 24 runner field. I'm not overly sure where is the best position to be drawn but he's next door to the 5/1 favourite and hopefully it won't inconvenience him. Viva Vettori comes here on the back of a very disappointing effort over 1m 2f at Doncaster when sent off as a well-backed 6/1 shot in a 16 runner field. Everything conspired against him though, as they went very slow from the off and he was way too keen in rear. The first 5 home all raced prominent throughout and nothing could get into the equation from the back, so I'm more than happy to write that effort off, as it wasn't this fellows true running at all. Previous efforts - including an unlucky 2½ length 3rd behind Dare To Dance (7/1 fav for Cambridgeshire) - would see David Elsworth's charge in with a great shout here and I'm hopeful that he'll eventually get the luck he needs to win, as he's often stopped in his tracks mid-race or doesn't get a proper pace to run at. Nicky Mackay hops back on board today and that's a plus - as the pair had a good run of consistent results previous to the horse disappointing under Jamie Spencer last time out, although there was little Spencer could do about that from where they were positioned. Another positive is that David Elsworth has his string in good order of late, despite plenty placing when looking likely to win. He's a trainer I always keep an eye on and sooner or later he'll unlock the door for this fellow. Some useful animals line up in opposition but I don't think it's the strongest 24-runner race that one could find out there and given the fact that Galiando is the 5/1 favourite shows this. He won a modest C4 H'cap when last seen and although he's a lightly-raced 3 year old, I just can't see why he's such a short price. He also lacks experience which is often vital in these fields and overall, his form isn't that of a 5/1 shot. The price is based on trainer prowess more than anything and I couldn't have him, even though he could well win. It's also likely that he'll want much further than 1m 1f. Viva Vettori looks like the best bet to me and I'll play small/medium each-way stakes on him achieving victory. 5 places are being paid too and hopefully he can run into one of those. Conditions suit, the track suits, the race should be run to suit and the price of 16/1 is just too big for him. He's not trusty with regards to being a win proposition but he's more than capable of making his mark if things just fall his way. I'd love to see Mackay race prominently before kicking on a lot earlier than usually is the case as the horse just doesn't react instantly to pressure and often leaves the impression that he's going to do a lot more than he can. He travels so well at times and his jockeys just wait, press the button and wait again until he eventually finds his top gear - and often that's too late, hence why he's always fast-finishing but never getting up to win. Hopefully things could pan out differently here, but I'd be happy with a place.

[kev2oo9]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September 6.15 Wolves - Fire Fighter 9/4 bet365 Hard to imagine this 3yo colt getting beat today after win lto over 2m by 4L in this class and eased down at end and although nothing of real quality was still a good performance to show its in form Races under a penalty today and Prescott is quite canny at this , this year alone he's 4/5 with horses racing under a penalty on aw racing with other coming 5th and 2/2 at wolves with same criteria Takes a drop down in distance to 1m5f but won over 12f so shorter distance not a worry

[kev2oo9]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September Win sorry

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September W7.45 River Ardeche 1pt Win 12/1 SkyBet They've been trying this horse over all sorts of trips on all sort of ground but the bottom line is that last year it ran one of its best races when last tried over this c&d off a 21lb higher mark than today. It finished 2nd that day and many horses behind it have since won off marks in the 80s so if a return to this c&d brings out its best form, then todays mark of 55 looks to be favourable. The horse is also tried in a blinkers and tongue tie combo for the first time.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September 445 Newmarket: Galiando 1pt (6/1 SJ) Stan James still going 6/1 for this progressive sort from the Noseda yard, although we have 24 runners I dont think many are in form and quite a few are still badly handicapped hence this still could be a bit of value and a bet to nowt for EW backers. Won on debut, was a touch unlucky on his next two runs and then won easily at Windsor. Very lightly raced and plenty of scope for more improvement and maybe well in here on 91. Only negaitive that I can see is he does get behind early on and finish well, that may be difficult in this big field and hopefully Jimmy Fortune has his indicators working well!

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September 3.55 Worcester Auberge has slipped to a handy mark and is back up in trip again which will suit. Stable ticking over nicely and this could be a muddling affair which won't trouble my selection who can either lead or come from off the pace. Favourite unreliable and much too short so Auberge is much better value. 1 Pt win 18/1 VCBet

[twinny]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September 0.5e/w salford art 66/1 stan james 15.00 newmarket salford art was a well beaten favourite last time out 28 days ago on this same course and over this distance,but was carrying nearly a stone more and was flying at the finish,salford art is a decent horse on its day and im sure if at the best of its form can run some of todays rivals close,for some reason connections like to run salford art from the back and use its turn of foot to get home,if it is in mid division 2 furlongs out it can easy grab a place with its excellent turn of foot,a big price at 66/1 im hopeing for an honest performance,2nd in mid august in a class 2 contest over 7 furlongs im hopeing it can go close

[DM99]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September 7.45 Wolverhampton - River Ardeche (1pt WIN 12/1 Skybet) Interestingly he drops back in trip today after a slew of runs that read "weakened final furlong" and such. On a very handy mark and, you guessed it, in first time blinkers which might, just might, allow my runner to stop running second and steam home for a change. :lol

[hereforthep]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September 17.20 Newmarket Ambala - 1pt win @ 2/1 >Bet365 Ambala is improving very well as of late she travelled strongly throughout to win a good race at Kempton last time out and will be tough to beat here in a field full of unexposed sorts

[DM99]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September I swear to Jeebus I hadn't read this thread before I posted River Ardeche and then I see that Boulder had the same idea as me. I think it's a good omen that two tipsters independently come to the same conclusion. Good luck today. :hope

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September Worcester 2.15 Royale Bruere EW - 150/1 Boyle VC Stayed right up there until the 3rd last lto, where he made a blunder and weakened. Could strip fitter today and on paper this race looks weaker. If it was fitness that beat him lto, I'm willing to find out at the price if he can finish his race and have a chance of a place. Wroth a nibble for me.

[DerekNI]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September Have seen strong e/w money for Heavenstown in the 5.35 @ Worcester, best price 16/1

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September 5.15 Wolverhampton Quite a wide open looking handicap but when you look at it the top 2 in the market look good value to be honest. I would be more interested in Desert Falls had he been better drawn as he showed signs of a return to form last time out but he isnt drawn that well especially with the presence of other front runners. This should set this race up for a finisher and that could suit Flaxen Lake and Trojan Rocket. Flaxen Lake is generally consistent although doesnt win very often. Has returned to form last 2 starts running on near finish, runs off same mark today and just as effective on the AW and should get a strong pace to chase and has run well off much higher marks than this especially when taking useful apprentices claim off. Trojan Rocket was another that returned to form last time out, meeting all sorts of trouble in running before having to make his move fairly wide, and close fast towards the finish. Gets to run off the same mark tonight and that race has worked out well with the winner winning again off a 5lb higher mark and also 7th has won since. Only had 6 runs so potentially more to come and all form has come on the AW aswell. 1pt win Trojan Rocket 5/1 bet365

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September 2:05 Haydock - Robemaker 3yo Gosden trained, the yard is 30% win at the track this year. Havlin takes the ride, he has won half of his six outings at the track in 2011 and is 100% (1 in 1) for 3yo's. Robemaker is a distance winner after taking a 3yo at Yarmouth on soft, and recently contested a 3yo+ cl2 where he finished 2nd, whereas this is cl3. The colt has raced once at the track as a 2yo and finished 3rd of 14 in a maiden. Despite older horses making up much of the field in the last 10 years 3yos have won this race five times in that period. 15/2 bet365 - win (bog)

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September

2.25 Newmarket Tazahum 3-1 Betfred 1pt worried to be taking on Aidymac but having never seen premio loco run im looking at his form and he doesnt look to be a miler to me. mine had a massive last run, there was a length between him and the front at goodwood a month before that, and has in a nutshell been bloody impressive for months. all at a mile, obviously like most im not a fan of hills, but hes not as rubbish as everyone goes on

No excuse for not seeing a horse run these days as you can view replays for free!

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September TIGERBILL 7.45 Wolverhampton. 0.5 points each way. Cannot win on the bare form of things, but I get the impression he's better than showing. Has shown he acts on this track and the trip's fine, so with getting the race run to suit, which I think he will, I feel he'll show a bit more like what he's capable of this evening. Unexposed and a decent price, which make the chance worth taking. 14/1 Bet365 BOG

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September Lady Of Synone 3.55 Worcester. 0.5 points each way. Open to improvement, and although needs to, this race looks suitable. The trip and ground isn't a concern and the handicapper expecting improvement also with a mark of 95. Not the strongest of races and plenty weighted up to their recent bests, so all in all would appear to have every chance. 20/1 Victor Chandler (bog)

[stewartd14]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September 2.25 Newmarket POETS VOICE @ 4/1 Bet 365 WIN My view of this race is simply if Poet's Voice can return to form, I think he wins. His back form is better than what the rest have shown, he will handle the ground and the mile is ideal. The issue (and the reason 4/1 is available) is that he has shown very little the past 2 runs. However, his defeat at Meydan was in the Dubai World Cup which I think can certainly be excused. He then re-appeared at Goodwood where he showed quirks and run no sort of race. However, that was first time after an absence, and the trainer has said it was a one off. I think 4/1 is too much of an over-reaction for a horse with so much class.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September 5:25 Listowel Pittoni - Back Not an original selection but he looks chucked here on ratings and is in the vest recent form of any of today's line up. He won well lto and it would be a real surprise if he didn't win here 1pt win @ sp

[cc75]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September 8.15 Wolves: Guisho 1pt win @ 12/1 Will Hill BOG Think this horse has a fair chance here. Dropped in the weights after diappointing effort on handicap debut LTO. Prior to this had shown decent promise in maiden company and having been dropped 3lbs in the weights this represents a slightly easier handicap assignment than LTO so may fair better. First time blinkers applied, could bring about improvement and stable in decent heart and this horse their only representative at Wolves tonight.

[cc75]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September

8.15 Wolves: Guisho 1pt win @ 12/1 Will Hill BOG Think this horse has a fair chance here. Dropped in the weights after diappointing effort on handicap debut LTO. Prior to this had shown decent promise in maiden company and having been dropped 3lbs in the weights this represents a slightly easier handicap assignment than LTO so may fair better. First time blinkers applied, could bring about improvement and stable in decent heart and this horse their only representative at Wolves tonight.

Sorry BH, typo, the Will hIll price genuinely is 16/1 at time of posting.

[Petersson1984]

Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd of September

Sorry BH' date=' typo, the Will hIll price genuinely is 16/1 at time of posting.[/quote'] And its the 8:45 race... :ok