England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September

[DCFC4Life]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September

Unusual for me but I've gone for a high odds treble. The reason being that I have been waiting until the next round of games before getting seriously involved, but I have a few that I fancy this week and would kick myself if they all came off without me putting any money on it. So rather than put normal stakes on each I've just gone for a treble. Maybe not the best reasoning for long-term gambling but it will only be a small stake. Bolton @ 8.5- Bolton have started poorly and their away record under Coyle is abysmal. However, they are still a decent side and have the potential to cause Arsenal trouble; I'm especially thinking of Davies and Klasnic up against Mertesacker and Koschielny. You'd fancy Cahill to put in a good performance against a side who might buy him in January as well and he may be a threat from set pieces against a shaky defence. The main reason for this bet is of course Arsenal's current form, the media attention surrounding it and the probable effect on team morale. At odds as long as these I think it is worth betting against a team who are arguably 'in crisis'. Stoke +1 (AH) @ 1.87- Man Utd have been phenomenal so far but have yet to be tested by a really hard away game. They might continue to steamroller all and sundry but the odds are skinny in my opinion, if you consider their long term away form, and especially their away form last season. Stoke is a very hard place to go and it goes without saying the fans and players will be well up for this. Tiredness should not be too much of an issue with players rotated in midweek. Vidic is still out and you'd fancy Evans to have a problematic game against a physical Stoke side. QPR @ 2.37- I like the look of this QPR side. They have some quality players, Barton and Wright-Phillips have looked stunning and Taarabt looks as though he might prove me wrong and make it in the Premiership. He's certainly come on a lot since his days at WHL. Although it's early to judge QPR, I would say that they look at least equal to Villa in terms of quality. If this is the case, they should be close to evens when playing Villa at home. Comes to 38.5 with Victor Chandler.

Stoke +1 at 1.87 is the worst tip I've seen on this forum. Do you watch the Premier League? Stoke shipped 4 against lowly Sunderland last weekend whilst Manchester United put 3 past Chelsea in 45 minutes, handed their coach their first defeat since he was in charge of Steve Kean's old side!!! I read somewhere that Wayne Rooney hasn't scored against Stoke, but the argument in the article was that Javier Hernandez will be able to dribble through this big Stoke defence, as well as Nani and Ashley Young, with the Portuguese winger on fire recently. Chicharito scored both goals in a 2-1 victory last season so if Fergie starts him I will be taking United who are currently just over halves. I think that's good value against a Stoke side who don't match up well on paper. The only downside is their physical game versus de Gea. But as it's on TV, it's easier to judge how he's going to do and you can take them in play too :ok

[DCFC4Life]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September

Man.City - Everton Both teams are doing well in terms of scoring goals. However, both also concede regularly. Man.City has a very good attack and so far they have scored 22 goals in 8 games. However, their defense is not great and they also concede goals. Everton are also good up front and so far scored 11 goals in their 6 games. They also have an impressive record against Man.City and won in 7 out of their last 8 games against the citizens. Man.City are much stronger this season but Everton's impressive record against them can't be ignored and I don't see Man.City winning this game easily and can see Everton scoring at least a goal here. Both to Score @ 1.90 (3 units) William Hill

I guess you got a good price so it's not the worst bet in the world. However, Manchester City don't concede many goals at home and there's something I don't like about Everton's attack (even if they are pushing for 3rd place!). Just wanted to make you aware of this....

[kaynem]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September In what parallel universe are Everton pushing for 3rd place?

[beer]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September

In what parallel universe are Everton pushing for 3rd place?

they are not pushing for 3rd place. :lol i think that 7th place is the best what they can get.!!

[Profit Prophet]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September Following on from early thoughts i've decided to drop any involvement in the Stoke/Man Utd game and yet to decide on the Qpr/Villa match although i'm leaning towards the draw instead of the home win but will make a decision after saturday's results are in. I've had a good look through all the markets in the Stoke/Man U game and i can't see any value anywhere. I agree with others opinions that stoke +1 @ 2.00 is poor value and backing Man Utd no matter what form they've been in is poor punting imo and best to wait for other opportunities with them. I will be keeping a eye on the match in play and may get involved on Man U if the scores are level 60-70 min in. There's been alot of posts about spurs and my opinion for what it's worth is that although the odds are just about fair, i think it's a game best left alone. Spurs were out played at molineux until Adebayor scored and only when they were 2-0 up did they dominate the game. An upredictable Wigan versues a unpredictable spurs away side is a no bet for me. Onto my picks : Newcastle v Blackburn Home win @ 1.95 I was impressed with Newcastle last weekend away at villa. Although Villa have drawn a few at home they've played quite well and for Newcastle to mostly dominate is quite telling. Having witnessed QPR last week down at Molineux, i don't think they did too badly to get a point at Loftus road either although they were obviously fortunate to do so. I was suprised QPR dominated so much but having seen them last week i can see how they will do that to many teams this season if Warnock keeps morale high. I backed Blackburn last week, but in honesty i was fortunate to get the win on blackburn DNB. I think the result was down to Arsenal being in such a mess, mentally weak and low on confidence more than Blackburn deserving to win. They we're also helped by 2 O.G. Basically everything went Blackburns way. I think Blackburn too have many problems yet to be resolved and i'd be very suprised if they got a result here. They have put in some decent away performances over the past 6 months noteably arsenal 0-0, west ham 2-2? wolves 2-3 etc.. but i can see Cabaye and Tiote dominating the match and causing them problems. I doubt Blackburn will cause Newcastle too many problems with a slow Yakubu and mis and hit Roberts up top. I'm slightly concerned newcastle don't have a proven goalscorer but i think they have enough elsewhere to score and also create easier chances for the likes of Best. Decent odds imo and worth backing. WBA V FULHAM Home win @ 2.40 At first i was abit hesitant and couldn't decide between the home win and draw however i've decided to follow logic/trends here and opt for the home win at decent odds. As we all know, Fulham have a terrible away record. They've started the season quite poorly and were fortunate to get a point v man city last weekend. Man city let them get momentum and even then Fulham needed abit of luck. To me, Fulham just seem like a 11 players and not a team at the moment which is worrying considering their success over the past 2-3 seasons has been achieved by unity. I saw Fulham at Molineux and they were very poor. They had little or no threat and looked lethargic and laboured in their play devoid of ideas. Jol did leave Zamora out that day which didn't help their cause but i think he's over rated anyway, just the best they have. Nothing i've seen since of Fulham has changed my mind that they still need time to adapt to Jol and vice verser. WBA meanwhile, excluding swansea last weekend, which i'll put down to a blip and in reality swansea had been building to that previously after the stalemates v wigan and sunderland, have looked fairly dangerous and i think they are due a comfortable win themselves. They have threats from all over the field now and with Hodgson on charge they'll be disciplined at the back and more often than not united as a team. I can see Long and Odemwingie, especially Odemwingie casuing the like of Hangeland real problems saturday. I fancy Wba to score at least one and likely 2 and i don't think Fulham yet have enough creativity in their passages of play to damage Wba too much or enough discipline/unity to hold out if they did take the lead. At the odds going i think it's decent value as given all the factors i'd have taken WBA at anything above 2.00.

[pg_yid]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September

Just wanted to add my two cents here :ok GL with all your bets though.... Personally 1.87 is way below my acceptable estimation for that bet. Considering you still need Stoke to draw with United to get a result. Worth remembering that United have won all three encounters here at the Brittania. Stoke can be a tough place to go, but I think that is overplayed sometimes, and doesn't hold water where United are concerned as they always put in a good show. I also thinks it takes a brave man to bet against the tide in these circumstances, and I just think that trying to predict when a side in full swing is likely to drop points next is risky and worth a lot more than the 1.87 on offer tbh. Maybe if United had severe injuries and this was nearer the close season when the players are naturally jaded, or United have the title sealed up. Let's not forget as well that Stoke shipped four up at Sunderland last weekend, which might be a warning sign they aren'ty dealing with other distractions.

Glad to get some feedback :ok For United to be value @ 1.53 they would have to win this fixture about 2 out of every 3 times it was played. If you look at their record, even when they have won the league (and I think they will win it this season): 10/11 season United won 26% of their away games 08/09 season United won 63% of their away games 07-08 season United won 52% of their away games 06-07 season United won 68% of their away games Only one season out of their last four title winning championships have they won more than 66% of their away games. And I would say that Stoke is a harder than average away game. So it comes down to long-term trends vs short term form. I chose to oppose United due to the long-term trend, but having said that you make some valid points and I largely agree with the part in bold from your post. Which is why I went with small stakes and a 'fun' treble rather than putting 2% or 3% of my betting bank into my pick as I usually would. Perhaps no bet would have been the best option, however. On another note, you could argue that 1.87 for Stoke +1 (AH) is not value even if you want to oppose United. Maybe the better bet would be a lay @ 1.57ish on Betfair but obviously you are getting smaller odds for the security of the 'push' possibility and I just wanted to do the treble with VC because they were offering a standout 8.5 for Bolton, which made the odds for the treble bigger than any other bookie.

[pg_yid]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September

Stoke +1 at 1.87 is the worst tip I've seen on this forum. Do you watch the Premier League? Stoke shipped 4 against lowly Sunderland last weekend whilst Manchester United put 3 past Chelsea in 45 minutes, handed their coach their first defeat since he was in charge of Steve Kean's old side!!! I read somewhere that Wayne Rooney hasn't scored against Stoke, but the argument in the article was that Javier Hernandez will be able to dribble through this big Stoke defence, as well as Nani and Ashley Young, with the Portuguese winger on fire recently. Chicharito scored both goals in a 2-1 victory last season so if Fergie starts him I will be taking United who are currently just over halves. I think that's good value against a Stoke side who don't match up well on paper. The only downside is their physical game versus de Gea. But as it's on TV, it's easier to judge how he's going to do and you can take them in play too :ok

Fair enough if you disagree, no need to be rude though. I wouldn't read too much into the Sunderland game. Stoke are a different kettle of fish at home and they should be more, if not completely, rested for this game. There's no doubting who has the better side between Man Utd and Stoke but if football was that simple United wouldn't have dropped points in nearly three quarters of their away games last season. Also, see my other post above this one.

[arkadymo]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September If you want to bet against United, why not just take the Draw? I think we can all agree that a home win would be stunning, but would a 0-0 Stoke City FT score be that surprising? The price is @ 4.20 seems tempting to me.

[jpffc]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September Awoken Fulham to not leave the Hawthorns empty handed Its taken 5 games into the season but finally Fulham have sparked to life. Dead and Buried shortly after half time against Man City Fulham looked to be still sitting rock bottom of the EPL with 2 points to their name. But a great strike from Bobby Zamora and a little bit of luck we clawed back to claim a deserved point. If it wasn't for some more away goal keeper heroics we could have even got all 3 points however the one point picked up was as good as a win. Midweek we reshuffled and played our squad players against Chelsea. Taking the game to penalties, Fulham stumbled at the last hurdle to be knocked out. Probably not a disaster result but I feel Jol will be most pleased with the spirited performance resulting in building more momentum towards WBA away on the weekend. In the space of the week I was writing with no confidence about us and wasn't sure what was going to happen with Fulham and when they will finally start to show signs of the team they once have been. From these two games I have been reassured that we have still got it in the locker to be that team again. With no Europa league distractions this week and the majority of the first team players being rested surely Jol will be relishing the chance to get a fresh first team out on the pitch. WBA lost midweek to however they had a few key first team individuals going the whole 120 minutes. As always away from home we are famously known for being poor but I believe winless Fulham have got a foot hold in the season now and will be unprofessional not to capitalize on a very winnable game. WBA haven't started the season strongly. After getting thumped 3-0 by relegation favorites Swansea last week this is a great time for us to be going there. One small factor in the game with the legend Uncle Roy Hodgson in the baggies dug out this time round. He might want to get one up on his old team but its been a while now since Uncle Roy has left and so much has changed, so I don't think this would play a part in the drama. This is a massive game for Jol. If we lose tomorrow I can see the fans seriously jumping on his back. With the way the week has panned out for both teams Fulham are carrying slightly more confidence and momentum into the game. I am going to game and am hoping from what ive seen in the last 2 games we will come away with At least a point. Probably my most confident post so far this season regarding Fulham and I will be very frustrated to be explaining the defeat in next weeks post. We have slowly started to show a bit more of a performance since the Wolves game where we were terrible and signs look good to keep raising the performance and get that first win. Going to keep it simple here Odds are short but Fulham + 0.5 (AH) 1.62 b365 As we are yet to win a game I will be over confident tipping an away win so for better value DRAW @ 3.10 looks better value for you value hunters p.s Ive never seen Fulham lose at the Hawthorns so hopefully this trend continues come 5pm tomorrow. :hope COYW FTID

[DCFC4Life]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September

In what parallel universe are Everton pushing for 3rd place?

Sorry, meant it as in they win their game in hand v Spurs and they're 3rd :rollin

[DCFC4Life]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September

Fair enough if you disagree, no need to be rude though. I wouldn't read too much into the Sunderland game. Stoke are a different kettle of fish at home and they should be more, if not completely, rested for this game. There's no doubting who has the better side between Man Utd and Stoke but if football was that simple United wouldn't have dropped points in nearly three quarters of their away games last season. Also, see my other post above this one.

Re-reading that, I apologise for being rude :$

[pg_yid]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September

Re-reading that' date=' I apologise for being rude :$[/quote'] No worries mate :ok

[Kiddo112]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September Just got an email from Ladbrokes with an interesting offer. If Rooney (Man U), Aguero (Man City) or Jelavic (Rangers) scores at any time in this weekends games, they will refund losing bets on the outright market. Max refund is £/€100, and only one refund per customer. Not a bad offer, especially if you think the fav might struggle - maybe back the draw?

[wxm91]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September Incidentally, Blackburn have a terrific record at Newcastle! Won the last 4 times bar the year Newcastle were in the championship.

[Charles Drawin]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September Newcastle v Blackburn Just a few stats for those considering getting involved with this one. Newcastle haven’t beaten Blackburn in the last 7 encounters 2007-11 and Blackburn have won the last 5 at St James 2006-11. For those who heavily lean towards past head to heads this should provide useful information. My own advice is to take this info into consideration along with both teams current form, injury status etc and make your judgement as this is not an advice to follow stats blindly. I really have no overriding feelings to add for this latest match up as I see both teams on about the same level in terms of playing personnel. Newcastle currently trade odds on which is too short for my palette and that's regardless of the current 'bogey side' phenomenon. The value lies with Blackburn who currently trade 5.0 at tote and betfred.

[Alexc]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September City AH -1 @ 1.70 (Bet365) I think City'll get back on track tomorrow. I think they've done enough to this point to be considered title contenders, and title contenders usually respond to a couple disappointing results. We all know Everton's good recent record against City, but like I've said, City are in the hunt for the league, and whilst I'd expect Everton to make things difficult, I still think the home side will nick it.

[Barney]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September Hi everyone! A few picks this weekend; CHELSEA V Swansea - Swansea come into this one on the back of their first premeirship win, while Chelsea lost to Man Utd. I think it's going to be hard for the new boys to get anything at Stamford bridge and I expect they are going to struggle on the road this season, already losing to Arsenal and City. Boas will have Chelsea up for this and I expect a comfortable win and Drogba to come back into the side and cause havoc for the the Swansea defence. PICK - Chelsea -2 - 2.01 Betdaq 7/10 Stoke V MAN UTD - Stoke will be a tough game but I don't think Utd will fear anyone at the moment. They are playing great football and rested a few midweek, so I expect them to come into this brimming with confidence. Manchester also have never dropped a point to Stoke since they arrived in the prem. Hernandez should be fit and Rooney will be looking to carry on his top form, I can't see past Utd winning comfortably. Pick - Man UTD -1 - 2.01 Betdaq 7/10 Wigan V TOTTENHAM - Wigan struggle to find goals against top sides and missing Rodallega will be a huge blow. Spurs looked good against Liverpool and I think their ball movement and class in midfield will be too much for the Latics. Pick - Spurs - 1.95 Betdaq 7/10 Man City V EVERTON - This one is a bit of a long shot. City have looked good but have a tendency to concede. They rested players midweek and Aguero looks frightening, but they might have one eye on the Champions League next week. Everton have pushed on from the QPR loss, have a full squad (apart from Anchiebe) and have a great record against City. They did the double over them last season, have won on their last four visits and Moyes seems to know how to play against Mancini's side. Everton will, as always, be dogged and gve City a tough game, they have players in Cahill, Drenthe and Osman who can push on from midfield and support the strikers (if Cahill doesn't start upfront). Going to have a punt on the Blues carrying on their impressive record against City. Pick - Everton - 9 Betdaq 2/10 GL all

[Charles Drawin]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September :welcome TO pl Barney :ok Seems like you've gone for some adventurous picks for your first post which is commendable, well done.

[grimsbyben]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September Does anyone know if C.Adam & Skrtel are available for Liverpool tomorrow.

[MPLouis]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September

Man.City - Everton Man.City has a very good attack and so far they have scored 22 goals in 8 games. However, their defense is not great and they also concede goals.

Not at home they don't ;) (none conceded in their first four home league games this season) - http://www.soccerway.com/teams/england/manchester-city-football-club/

[Mustafa]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September

Not at home they don't ;) (none conceded in their first four home league games this season) - http://www.soccerway.com/teams/england/manchester-city-football-club/

But as I said in my post Everton scored in their last 10 games against citizens including 5 games at the City of Manchester Stadium ;)

[HoldenCaulfield]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September Everton are only a shambles at board room level. On the pitch things are ticking over just fine so that is absolute nonsense. Everton battered QPR, battered Villa and deserved to win against Wigan so that's also nonsense. We deserved nothing from Ewood, however. For a team who are an absolute shambles, 3 points of 3rd with a game in hand isn't too shabby. Onto the game. While we've got a good record at City I just think the way we have been defending at times this season and the fact that City are playing some top stuff, I just can't see us getting anything from this game. Everton have the ability to suprise a few, but I just can't see it this time and would not put anyone off taking City on the handicap.

[Guest]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September I was just about to post the same thing, we always seem to get similar picks when it comes to Fulham! I took Fulham +0.5 at 1.625 yesterday. I was tempted to just go for the draw, but I think I am safer this way. My picks are as follows: Fulham +0.5 @1.625 Man City -1.0 @1.725 Newcastle @1.9 Arsenal - Bolton BTTS @1.72 Spurs @1.9 Feedback would be appreciated, most of the reasoning for my picks has been discussed here already. The standout for me is spurs in terms of value, I think that they will have a return to form in the next few weeks and you will see the price for these kinds of games begin to fall. Arsenal are leaking goals, and seem ready to score, hence the BTTS.

[Kosher Readies]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September Arsenal v Bolton Watched the Gunners last week at Blackburn and although they are still very threatening middle to front, they are shambolic at the back and ended with a demoralising 4-3 reverse. The club is without doubt in crisis and there is big pressure on Wenger to get a win tomorrow. For those reasons, I think they look a bit short at the 1.4 mark. Yes they have a great record at home to Bolton but I don't think this is relevant to tomorrows game as the circumstances are different. Bolton are far from in good form either, however the fixture list has not been kind to them at the start of the season pitting them against United, City and Liverpool in their opening games. I feel they can cause Arsenal's backline problems and if the home side are to win I think it will just be by the odd goal. Selection: Bolton +1.5 AH @ 1.74 with 32Red - 2 units

[Marty McFly]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September QPR look like the value bet again this weekend.

[jorsena]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September

Does anyone know if C.Adam & Skrtel are available for Liverpool tomorrow.

Sadly yes

[MPLouis]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September

But as I said in my post Everton scored in their last 10 games against citizens including 5 games at the City of Manchester Stadium ;)

Yes - I noticed that. Why should past results in the same fixture affect a game though? Does it make any sense? The only way I can see it might have an effect is if the teams are affected by knowledge of the results of past fixtures - e.g. if City go into the game tomorrow thinking "Oh no, it's Everton - we always lose to them at home" and vice-versa with Everton.

[Livestrong]

Man United, Man City, Liverpool, and Tottenham all to win is 6.00 with Paddy Power. I am very tempted by this. I know accumulators should generally be avoided, but I feel this has a decent chance of coming through. Although, Paddy Power Enhanced Odds Specials usually lose! Thoughts on this?

[cpo]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September Blackburn have won their last 6 games at St James Park. Confidence will be high after beating Arsenal and Geordies struggling to score goals. 3/1 for Blackburn is very tempting

[Kiddo112]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 24-26 September

Man United' date=' Man City, Liverpool, and Tottenham all to win is 6.00 with [b']Paddy Power. I am very tempted by this. I know accumulators should generally be avoided, but I feel this has a decent chance of coming through. Although, Paddy Power Enhanced Odds Specials usually lose! Thoughts on this?

My only thought is that when a bookie puts up a bet in flashing lights, they are happy to lay it. That should say it all.