bbotd tuesday

[ballyoisin_bomb]

425 listowel cervezo dineiro sp eachway the 3mile handicap chase on day 2 of listowel throws up a large field with little form it has 2 be said. most of these are exposed types and the distance should find a few out as will the likely tetsing conditions. the selection though scored over 3mile at bellewstown off 7pound lower and is in on his chase debut on a potentially lenient enough mark. anything over 6/1 will be massive price danger is pocket reader with mccoy taking over especially if he gets a better pace than when 4th last time out

[chris34]

Re: bbotd tuesday 5.10 Yarmouth Smallish field but this should be run at a true gallop with Bronze Beau a confirmed speed ball and Clear Ice and Soap Wars both likely to force the pace, all 3 look high enough in the weights and worth taking on. Secret Millionaire has been a major disappointment this season and too me is now proving rather expensive to follow and often flatters to decieve and has just maybe not trained on this season. Ryan Style is 4lb higher than his last win and although has won off a 2lb lower mark he has simply just been held by the handicapper recently and will need to find something extra today. Midnight Raider comes from the Chris Wall yard who have had a very poor season to date but the yard had a few winners recently and generally horses are running well, he finally got his head in front last time out in a race that just fell apart, raced well off a furious pace and the race was rather gifted to him and clearly relished the cut in the ground, that form looks suspect and although could be open to further improvement off just a 3lb higher mark I couldnt be taking 4/1 on him. For me Lujeani looks a standout bet at 9/2, despite not winning this year he has been running well in the right conditions he needs a strong pace to come off and should get that today and gaps should appear in this small field, last win came off a 4lb lower mark last summer at newmarket but several placed efforts this season back at the July course and even more so the 3rd place in a competitive 21 runner field at doncaster last week prove he is capable of being competitive off this sort of mark will be suited to fast ground and with strong winds likely again his stamina could pay dividends (all wins have come over 6f despite all recent form coming over 5f) 1pt win Lujeanie 9/2 pp

[cpo]

Re: bbotd tuesday 4.30 Haydock King Zeal win @ 7/1 Bet365 King Zeal can hopefully bounce back to form here at a track he clearly loves. His form figures at Haydock read 1-2-1-7-3 with the 7th place coming this year when returning from a break. It is no surprise that this horses best performance this year came at this track but over an extra 2f which King Zeal found too far. Stepped back to 10f on soft ground look to be ideal conditions for this horse. He gets on well James Rodgers as all 4 career wins have come under him and the jockey is in good form at the moment. King Zeal's last 3 wins have come in Apprentice Handicaps which is what this race is. He must have a big chance of going very close off a mark of which definitely isn't beyond him .

[hereforthep]

Re: bbotd tuesday 16.00 Haydock Firebeam - 1pt win @ 11/8 >Bet365 Firebeam will be very much the one to beat in this field he finished 3rd in a decent handicap at Ascot last time out and will be given the early pace today and could make the most of it to get the win well

[Petersson1984]

Re: bbotd tuesday 16:30 Haydock King Zeal E/W 7,00 Bet365 King Zeal 2011 season is far from a succes but his history at Haydock is amazing, whit 2 win, 2 places and only one race out of place. The 2 wins and 1 one the place was under simular going.

[Lars]

Re: bbotd tuesday 14:30 Haydock EMBSAY CRAG has had a fair few excuses this season and although he has to bounce back from a desperately poor run when last seen about six weeks ago, I think he will and I'm very confident of him outrunning these odds. He's had a torrid season (hasn't won for two years ) but has had excuses on plenty of occasions. Last time for example, he was wearing cheekpieces and was far too free alongside seeing too much daylight. He was keen on his only other start with that piece of headgear applied so there's likely a pattern there and they're discarded today, which is a positive. He was supported at big prices that day too so connections obviously believed there was still potential to be competitive off this kind of mark. He hasn't ran badly in other starts this season with some decent efforts off higher marks in the spring. Embsay Crag handles any ground and has form at Haydock in the past and with a decent apprentice taking 5lbs off, he should definitely be competitive off effectively a mark of 71. He does need to settle better (should without headgear) and not miss the kick (broke on terms last time) but if these things happen, he should run a big race at huge odds. Couple of useful types in this race but still think there's potential with this horse and the break should have done him some good too. EMBSAY CRAG; EW @ 33/1 William Hill (bog)

[BKI Punter]

Re: bbotd tuesday 2:40 Yarmouth Mizbah 1pt win - 4/1 (William Hill) Return to the better surface is going to suit the Bin Suroor (has a good strike-rate at the track) runner. This horse is on the upgrade which can't be said for a lot of the opposition, who need to bounce back from poor efforts. Tidal Way has come out and franked the form and overall it has a very solid look about it. They've put Spencer onboard who himself rides particularly well at the track. The Stoute, Prescott and Dunlop runners all look to have been given quite tough marks to run off whereas I feel Mizbah has been given the opposite. Will hopefully take advantage.

[cpo]

Re: bbotd tuesday

16:30 Haydock King Zeal E/W 7,00 Bet365 King Zeal 2011 season is far from a succes but his history at Haydock is amazing, whit 2 win, 2 places and only one race out of place. The 2 wins and 1 one the place was under simular going.

I am pretty sure 7/1 was long gone when you posted. Apologies if not

[BKI Punter]

Re: bbotd tuesday Guessing he means it in decimal, so 6/1, which was available at the time?

[cpo]

Re: bbotd tuesday I am not sure. It's 11/2 now but yeh may have been 6/1 at the time. How do you check to see what time a price has changed?

[Monterosso]

Re: bbotd tuesday It was 6/1 at the time of his posting, so the 7.00 price is right.

[BKI Punter]

Re: bbotd tuesday Click the horse's name on Oddschecker. 6/1 was available. :ok http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2011-09-13-haydock/16:30/winner/bet-history/king-zeal/today

[cpo]

Re: bbotd tuesday my bad, very sorry mate.. didn't realise it was a decimal :$

[cc75]

Re: bbotd tuesday 5.20 Folkestone: Hurakan 1pt win @ 9/1 Bet365 BOG Big chance here with Fallon a positive booking. Has ran well from higher marks than this in the past and won on the all weather from 71 in handicap company. Has a bit to prove though, trip being one (was beaten at very skinny odds on only attempt at this trip), and ground conditions as raced mainly on all weather or fast turf. However well worth a gamble at the price in my opinion for a stable in very good form and who teamed up with Fallon for a winner a fortnight ago.

[jayalexander]

Re: bbotd tuesday Yarmouth 5:40 - Mighty Mambo This method of selecting horses has worked for me before, so George Margarson's 4yo could hold the key here. The trainer won the 5:10 handicap here in 2010 and this is the only runner he has running in a handicap today. Martin Lane is 0 in 2 for him, but the jockey has won a few round here this year. Mighty Mambo is a 11 time maiden, Magical Speedfit (who won the 5:10 in 2010) lost his maiden tag on his 12th outing. Will lightening strike twice!!! Win at sp

[Monterosso]

Re: bbotd tuesday 2:30 Haydock - Lunar Phase - win @ 14/1 (WillHill) A decent 1m 4f handicap to kick off proceedings at Haydock and Lunar Phase looks worthy of taking a chance on. The Clive Cox trained 3 year old filly is well thought of by connections and although she's yet to show her true abilities, I think today will be the first time she'll get a race run to suit. In her 7 race career to date, she officially has 1 win to her name but that was due to Izzi Top being disqualified when they ran in a maiden over a mile at Windsor on fast ground. That horse later went on to finish 3rd in the Oaks and to see Cox's filly get within ½ a length of her was relatively impressive. Lunar Phase hasn't exactly set the world alight since, as she has only run solid, unspectacular races in handicaps. However, she has had excuses nearly every time she lined out and today could be the first time that things will pan out in her favour. Last twice, over this trip on GS ground (inc. over C&D), this well-bred filly had to put up with racing in very modestly run contests. Her performances were full of promise though and she seems to be a one-paced galloper, which makes it essential that she gets a solid pace to run at. With a couple of potential pacesetters combined with plenty of trackers and pressers, she should get everything to suit and hopefully we'll get to see her fulfill her promise. Clive Cox would seem to be out of form, as he has only achieved 1 winner from his 23 runners this month. However, a further 10 have placed with many more going close and his horses are going much better than the bare statistics would suggest. He makes a 350 mile round trip to visit a track that he doesn't come to very often and Lunar Phase is his only runner of the day. The talented John Fahy takes the ride and a valuable 3lbs off her mark, leaving her running off what is effectively a mark of 70. This is also his only ride of the day. Lunar Phase is one of just 3 runners from the Classic generation lining up here and they get a 9lb weight allowance for their age, which seems a massive plus at a stage of the season when I don't think it should be so large. She is stepping out of 3 year old handicaps for the first time but there's no doubting that she's much better than what she has shown to date (current rating is well below what I think she can progress to be) and I'm hopeful that we'll see a much better performance here. It's not exactly a brilliant contest either and 14/1 looks much too big. Of the rest, I wouldn't be too keen to side with any of them, as the race could fall to anyone. Lunar Phase strikes me as one who should be no bigger than 6-8/1 in this company and I'll play small/medium win stakes on her achieving her first proper win. The soft ground should be no issue either and hopefully the race will pan out to suit. If it does, she'll be there or thereabouts. Any market support would also be significant.

[Trotter]

Re: bbotd tuesday Yarm 5.10 - Secret Millionaire - win at 5/1 bog bet365 Doesn't win very often but looks to have a decent chance today Takes a drop in class after running in a hot handicap over in Ireland then a class 2 at haydock. Both those races were fast - run in below standard times Has a good 3lb claimer taking over today and with a 2lb drop in mark he's looking well handicapped and all his career wins have come in Aug/sept He's a 'tracker' and there's a couple of front runners to make the pace. I see the race panning out with the front runners fading and him taking the lead a furlong out and getting home before the hold up horses catch him...........:unsure

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: bbotd tuesday 3.40 Yarmouth - 1pt win Makheelah @ SP I posted this prior to her most recent run:

3.00 Brighton - 2pts win Makheelah @ 10/1 (Bet365) - BOG I think this horse is a stonking price in a pretty poor fillies handicap over a trip just short of 7f. 10/1 in a 6-runner field is well overpriced in my opinion, even though she ran an absolute stinker last time out. She's only had 6 runs to date, and receives weight for her age. She ran well on debut at Doncaster over 7f when 4th of 10, beaten just over 2 lengths. Her next two runs can be excused for the ground being too soft at Yarmouth over a mile, and her next run came after a long break back on quicker ground at the same track. She bounced back to form with a close 3rd behind Icebuster over 7f at Leicester. She then ran well in a tough handicap at Doncaster when just fading over the mile behind the decent Submission. The form of that race looks a lot stronger than what she races against today. She was only beaten 4l. She shaped as if wanting 7f on good ground after that, but she got a mile on soft ground again, and she bombed last time out. She'd done it before on soft ground so it was no surprise, and I expect her to bounce back under ideal conditions today - on a slipping mark, and receiving weight.

Unfortunately the rain came that day at Brighton, leaving her with little chance on very testing ground. She failed to get involved - another thing about Brighton that day was nothing was coming from off the pace and pretty much if you bagged the stands side rail you won the race. Tomorrow, unless there's a lot of rain coming, she'll be racing on quick ground. She also has dropped in the handicap to enter this 0-60 right at the ceiling mark. It's a very weak contest, and although I think 7f is perhaps better for her, she might be able to get away with it in such a modest event. The cheekpieces are added for the first time and if she reproduces anything like her Doncaster form she'd be tough to beat here off 60. She was a reasonably expensive purchase and I think she can start paying that back slowly with a big run here! Looks set to be around a 10/1 chance which probably won't be the case come the off, but that's much too big for a horse who hasn't had conditions to suit of late.

[twinny]

Re: bbotd tuesday steel city boy 100/1 paddypower 0.5e/w 16.40 yarmouth change of tactics tomorrow will be going to very short prices i think so 1 last attempt to land a longshot, im not sure why steel city boy has been entered in a class 3 race for the 1st time in its career,thats 90 races but maybe connections feel it can run a big race,steel city boy ran a decent 3rd last time out only beaten by 3 lenghts in a 12 runner field,infact 3 of steel city boys last 4 races have been good runs,2 were 2nd places over this 6 furlong distance only beaten by a lenght each time,steel city boy has had 10 top 3 finishes in 2011,two of them being 1st places so is well capable of a good run,with 8 wins in its career i will try (probably stupidly) another 50p e/w

[wafer]

Re: bbotd tuesday 4:40 Iver Bridge Lad @ Yarmouth - Been running in much better company and ran a couple of good runs in Meydan at the beginning of the year.Is off top weight but jockey Michael O Connell claims 3lb.Last ran in a Listed race where it finished 7th of 19 and finished 2nd in another Listed race at Newmarket in April. 1 pt Win bet @ 8/1 William Hill cheers

[andyjkmak]

Re: bbotd tuesday 5.20 Folkestone Gems is unbeaten over this C/D and if allowed an easy lead could be very hard to catch. Fairly exposed now but front runners do well here and with Hughes likely to try and win on the bridle with his mount she may just surprise. 1 Pt win 11/2 Bet365 ( please no photo finish defeats :p)

[TGS]

Re: bbotd tuesday Yarmouth 3.10 1 pt win Makyaal @11/4 (>Bet365) Will be very tough to beat if running to the same level as last time out. Seemed to improve for the drop down to a mile in handicap company at Chepstow in similar company. The form couldnt be working out any better with the 4th and 5th both winning since, most notably the 4th winnning in much higher grade than this. Should take all the beating if running to similar form.

[Boulder5111]

Re: bbotd tuesday Y3.10 Arkaim 0.5pt E/W 12/1 William Hill This horse starts life in handicaps off a mark of 55 and I expect the trainer to have this one ready for today - any money for it would be significant in my opinion. The trainer has put the horse away for 3 months and it's interesting that it's making its handicap debut here where the trainer has had 3 winners from 3 runners at an average sp of 14/1 ! I guess you could say that he places his horses well here. If the horse turns out to be a big drifter than fair enough, but the standout 12's with Hills looks value in the hope that the money comes for it later. The horses breeding suggests todays good ground will be favoured by the horse.

[Petersson1984]

Re: bbotd tuesday

my bad' date=' very sorry mate.. didn't realise it was a decimal :$[/quote'] No problem mate.. We play by the rules :ok

[fintron]

Re: bbotd tuesday 5.10 Yarmouth Secret Millionaire - raced in a class 3 handicap at Haydock the other week and travelled too keenly. Now drops into 0-85 company and jockey takes 3lb off his back. Well handicapped on his best form and has solid claims if he can settle better today over his optimum trip. 9/2 VC Bet, 1 pt win

[wizzkid walter]

Re: bbotd tuesday 4:00 Haydock - Firebeam - Back Had been mightily impressive when winning twice in a row before coming a slightly disappointing 3rd lto. He had excuses that day though and is one of very few in today's field that is proven on the ground. I like his chances of bouncing back 1pt win @ Evens Hills BOG

[DM99]

Re: bbotd tuesday 3.20 Folkestone - Alwaaqi (1pt WIN 20/1 Laddies) Posted a just above-average speed figure LTO and at 20/1 has to be taken on that basis alone. The ground LTO was the softer side of good, hoping that the slightly firmer ground will give him a boost. Well beaten at Newmarket LTO and finished fractionally worse than another runner in this race (Colonsay) and he is double the odds! The fav King of Wing might also be getting a little exposed by now. John Dunlop has a good record here over the years - more than 20%.

[Haystacks]

Re: bbotd tuesday

5.20 Folkestone Rhythm Stick 8/1 (Bet365)

Welcome to the forum, Marty. You may wish to peruse the BBOTD rules: http://forum.punterslounge.com/f13/best-bet-day-tables-september-2011-a-120921/#post2006452 In particular the rules state that reasoning needs to be supplied for all bets. Good luck!

[DM99]

Re: bbotd tuesday

Oops! Thanks for the heads up. Would I need to state a reason if my tip was posted in the Flat Racing thread instead?

Yes, all selections posted in this subsection need to have reasons. If you don't want to put reasoning, then the Horse Racing Systems forum is for high-quality picks, and the Glory Hunt forum is for the low quality picks (apologies if I offend anyone ;))

[Haystacks]

Re: bbotd tuesday Jasie Jac - 2.50 Fol (0.5ew 9-1 WH BOG) Was nibbled at in the market on his debut (33-1 into 16-1) and showed reasonable promise up with the pace before fading into 6th over the last couple of furlongs. With likely favourite Marcus Augustus rated only 72 after four runs, this doesn't look like an especially strong maiden, so if Jasie Jac shows improvement on his second run then he has a fair chance of at least making the frame.