Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

Champion Bumper New Years Eve 1pt Win @ 40/1 Boylesports This horse is bred to be very smart and cost quite a bit. Makes his debut today at Ludlow today and I just thought I'd have a little investment just in case he turns out to be rather good.

This one has a couple of entries this week so depending on the weather, I will hopefully get to see him again. If he can win again in comfortable fashion, then I would expect him to shorten again. That's all ante-post bets dealt with!

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Haha get in drifted out to 25/1 as well!

[BillyHills]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Great winner today mate, need to start looking at the trainers runners now they are over the bug or whatever they had!

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

Great winner today mate' date=' need to start looking at the trainers runners now they are over the bug or whatever they had![/quote'] Yeh I think his runners are definitely worth looking out for over the next few days. :ok BH where do you find out about rule 4's? Just for when it comes to doing the stats later on. I am not sure how to work out my bet on Pantxoa as there must have been a rule 4?

[Aidymac]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Well done mate, cracking bet, and more importantly, well deserves. ;-)

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

Well done mate' date=' cracking bet, and more importantly, well deserves. ;-)[/quote'] Cheers mate, watch Bonnie Prince romp home in the last!

[Aidymac]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

Cheers mate' date=' watch Bonnie Prince romp home in the last![/quote'] Well wouldn't it be funny if it did. :lol

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

A rather good day at the office for a Tuesday with Hobbs Dream winning quite comfortably in the first race at Taunton. I took 16/1 but seen 33/1 in places this morning so wasn't too hopeful even though I thought he would run well but I couldn't believe my eyes when watching the race. He was always travelling well on the outside of the field and I thought the young jockey gave him a great ride. He won well in the end and I was pleased to get my theory on the favourite right. Great way to start the day and Pantxoa managed to hang onto 3rd for a slight profit. Ted Spread was very impressive in that race and that pays a big compliment to Grumeti. War Party in the last I thought was just starting to make his challenge when he belted the 3rd last fence. He then did the same with the 2nd last and the last and Brennan did well to stay on top. He threw his chance but I doubt he would have got close to Renard. I think he would defininitely have placed if he hadn't made them 3 errors at the final fences. Can't complain though! Nice profit for the day and already I have seen Mulholland has Matrow's Lady out tomorrow.... Potential BBOTD me thinks! 2012 Bets - 87 Wins - 14 Placed - 8 Staked - 233.00 Returned - 298.97 Profit - +65.97pts

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Cracking stuff CPO:clap

[Aidymac]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Great figures CPO.. Keep it up

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Cheers everyone. Started the year off well so will hopefully keep it up. The good days are certainly outweighing the bad ones at the moment!

[BillyHills]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

Yeh I think his runners are definitely worth looking out for over the next few days. :ok BH where do you find out about rule 4's? Just for when it comes to doing the stats later on. I am not sure how to work out my bet on Pantxoa as there must have been a rule 4?

I usually check oddschecher first to see if a R4 was likely, i look at the results and the prices of the NR's, if its straightforward i just do the deductions myself using this site and this bet settler. If its more complicated i go to William Hill results page as they always print the time of the withdrawals and the R4's if they apply. I know its not spot on if you had the bet elsewhere buts its near enough for my purposes and especially if you havnt placed the bet with the firm quoted so cant see it in your account. Todays race looked like this; [ATTACH]1932[/ATTACH]

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Thanks for that. Am I right in thinking if you put the bet on the night before then rule 4 does not apply?

[Aidymac]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread No mate, the R4 would still apply from a bet the night before as its not antepost.

[cantspell]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Good stuff CPO I was happy with 32 on betfair. Once I read the post, I remembered the run you quoted never would have done so otherwise

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Sorted the rule 4. I initially did it for 20p but I have changed it to 40p :ok

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 3.30 Leicester Numide 1pt EW @ 20/1 Ladbrokes I am going to go for another big priced runner today with a similar profile to that of Hobbs Dream. The big difference with this one is the trainer form. Rod Millman is not in very good form at the moment and his flat runners have been very poor. He doesn’t have too many runners over jumps but this horse has won for him in the past and he looks well treated here if able to rediscover his old form. Numide has not been in the best of form in recent starts but was a winner twice last year in January and March. His first win last year came at Ffos Las over this trip where he won off a mark of 120 at a massive price of 25/1. He then ran 2 good races in better company before winning again over this distance at Bangor. That day he was rated 125 so today’s rating of 119 looks workable. Since returning from a few months off the track in September he has had a couple of runs on the flat where he showed nothing. They then tried him in grade 3 company at Chepstow where he finished 11^th of 18 and then he has had 4 more efforts in handicap company where he has been well beaten. His latest start came in a very good race in Taunton which was won by Ranjaan but there were many decent animals in this race and he was simply outclassed. The combination of the shorter trip and the quicker ground may have also been factors for him running so poorly but all of these poor runs, means his handicap mark has come down from 130 to 119. He is now 6lbs lower than when winning at Bangor less than a year ago and could be ready to strike now dropped in grade. He does however face a couple of comfortable last time out winners who could both prove tough to beat. Big Easy won very nicely at Doncaster on Saturday and wasn’t asked too much of a question so he should be fine for this. The race he won that day was more competitive than this but the ground will be very testing at Leicester and this race may come too soon for him. I wouldn’t want to be taking short odds on him. Same can be said about Painter Man who won over CD last week. He won easily but idled near the finish and the heavy ground may have taken plenty out of him. This represents a step up in grade for him and he has never won off mark this high before. He is a 10 year old and has not had much racing so he must have been difficult to train. I wouldn’t want to back a horse with his profile on heavy ground just a week after looking very tired when finishing off his race. That being said, either of them 2 could bolt up in this race but I don’t fancy them at the prices. As for the rest of them, Arbor Supreme is well handicapped on his chase form but that’s where I would want to see him. I couldn’t have Glenstal Abbey at all and Accordingtolawrence is too unpredictable. His trainer is in great form but the horse can’t be trusted. I don’t think Teshali will appreciate the testing conditions as he was pulled up last time out on his first encounter of heavy ground. Tom O’Tara will handle the ground but has been off for 307 days and has suffered due to his consistency. His last win came off a mark of 90 so is still 16lbs higher. The trainer of Numide is actually the top trainer at Leicester on the flat so it is quite interesting they have brought Numide to this track as he doesn’t have many jumpers here. Johnny Farrelly rides the horse in this race and he has partnered him plenty of times in the past, winning twice on him. He is a hold up horse so I think this smaller field will suit him as he won’t be able to get himself detached at the back like he has in some of his more recent races. Numide definitely has the talent to win this race; it’s just a matter of him putting in the effort.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 7.50 Kempton Pastoral Jet 3pts win @ 9/2 Bet365 I want to take on the serial loser Blueberry Fizz who always seems to find 1 or 2 too good. This is as low as they get in terms of class and the field does not look too inspiring but I think Pastoral Jet has a great chance here. He is well drawn in 5 and goes for a trainer in great form at the moment. Horses from both codes are running well from this yard with 2 from 4 on the flat. I thought it was a cracking training performance from Richard Rowe to get Tatenen to win at Ascot for the 2^nd year running. His horses are clearly thriving and I don’t think Pastoral Jet has much to find anyways. There wasn’t much between Jackie Love, Blueberry Fizz and my selection in a similar contest over CD back in December but Pastoral Jet is better off at the weights with both of them. Luke Rowe takes off a handy 7lbs again and he has ridden this horse on every career start. He has shown improvement since being sent handicapping and I fancy him to strike here with the stable going well. There doesn’t look to be much else in terms of opposition. Lovat Lane could run well for Chris Catlin and possibly Tawseef could go well. This is low grade stuff however so it wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world if an outsider was to go and win. Blueberry Fizz is rightfully the favourite but at 7/4 he looks far too short.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 3.50 Newcastle definite appeal 2pts win @ 6/1 ladbrokes Reasoning to come

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 3.50 Newcastle Definite Appeal 2pts win @ 6/1 Ladbrokes With Numide not running now as the meeting was called off, I am going to use them 2pts for another horse that I liked the look of today. Definite Appeal has been a big improver for me this season on his first full season in England. He used to be trained in Ireland before moving to this stable in 2011. He had one race in May last year where he finished 3rd of 4 at Kelso but wasn't beaten too far. He then made his reappearance at Catterick back in December where he ran a great race to finish just 5 lengths behind Dystonia's Revenge who is rated 115. In 2nd place that day was Eighteen Carat who is rated 116 so that form has a solid look to it. He then made the most of an easy opportunity to win at Musselburgh over 3m off a mark of 86. Last time out he was steadily getting himself into contention before unseating 4 out. The winner that day was Bardolet and he won very nicely but I am positive Definite Appeal would have at least got into the places. This does represent a step up in grade but I think he is steadily improving. He is rated 91 for this so gets plenty of weight from the field. Mr Jacob Kocman rides the horse and claims 7lbs which is also a positive but he has ridden the horse on his last 3 starts which is encouraging as this is when the horse has started to show improvement. The soft ground today should not pose a problem as he has raced on heavy ground in Ireland in the past. The smaller field today might help him as he should be able to get plenty of room at his fences. He probably does have to improve again to take this but he is going the right way and is worth a shot in this better grade.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

3.50 Newcastle Definite Appeal 2pts win @ 6/1 Ladbrokes With Numide not running now as the meeting was called off, I am going to use them 2pts for another horse that I liked the look of today. Definite Appeal has been a big improver for me this season on his first full season in England. He used to be trained in Ireland before moving to this stable in 2011. He had one race in May last year where he finished 3rd of 4 at Kelso but wasn't beaten too far. He then made his reappearance at Catterick back in December where he ran a great race to finish just 5 lengths behind Dystonia's Revenge who is rated 115. In 2nd place that day was Eighteen Carat who is rated 116 so that form has a solid look to it. He then made the most of an easy opportunity to win at Musselburgh over 3m off a mark of 86. Last time out he was steadily getting himself into contention before unseating 4 out. The winner that day was Bardolet and he won very nicely but I am positive Definite Appeal would have at least got into the places. This does represent a step up in grade but I think he is steadily improving. He is rated 91 for this so gets plenty of weight from the field. Mr Jacob Kocman rides the horse and claims 7lbs which is also a positive but he has ridden the horse on his last 3 starts which is encouraging as this is when the horse has started to show improvement. The soft ground today should not pose a problem as he has raced on heavy ground in Ireland in the past. The smaller field today might help him as he should be able to get plenty of room at his fences. He probably does have to improve again to take this but he is going the right way and is worth a shot in this better grade.

Oh Mr Jacob Kocman, your going to have eat more spinach!

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread God getting me back today... first Jacob Kocman and then Luke Rowe. My word what the hell was he doing on Pastoral Jets... had so much horse under him

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Feel a bit sick about both bets today but I suppose that is the chance you take when you back these young jockeys that claim 7lbs. They claim that for a reason but its still very sickening when they don't offer much assistance in the saddle and you just know with a little stronger handling your horse would win. Both were beaten by very little but the last one was extra bad as I had it in an EW ED double with Ocean Legend. Still made a nice return but it would have been triple the amount had he won in the last. Still at least they are running well so I can't complain too much. A loss of 5pts on the day so hopefully get it back tomorrow.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 2.50 Wolverhampton Beneath 2pts win @ 6/1 Paddy Power This horse ran an encouraging race on his return to action from over 100 days off. In his last 3 or 4 races they have been running him over inadequate trips but today he gets a return to 12f which is certain to suit. Adam Kirby rides him again which is a positive and the stable are in cracking form with all of their horses at the moment. This will only be his 7th run for the stable and I expect him to build on his 3rd last time out over 9f at this track.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 3.20 Wolverhampton Hot Tub 1pt EW @ 9/1 Bet365 Hot Tub could be worth chancing in this very open race as he ran his best race to date last time out. He had 3 disappointing efforts in maiden company at Kempton before bombing out on his handicap debut at Southwell. He ran much better at Kempton on his latest start over a mile, suggesting that a step up in trip would suit. He wasn’t best away that day at Kempton and was first to come under pressure at the 3 pole. He also had an awkward head carriage but once he knuckled down and got into his rhythm, he stayed on well from right out the back to just nab 4^th spot. That wasn’t the greatest of races but neither is this. They have put cheekpieces on this horse for this race which might just help him put his mind on the job. He is well drawn in 3 and has the assistance of Ian Mongan who won’t lack for strength in the saddle. This is a class 7 race so he is far from certain to build on his latest effort but if the cheekpieces do have an effect on him, then he could run a big race. At first glance 9/1 looks a little stingy and he might open bigger with other firms but I think it’s fair enough considering the level of opposition. Prickles is the current favourite but she only has 1 win from 27 starts in all codes of racing and the drop in trip is a concern. My Mate Les is the second favourite and did go close in a similar contest a couple of runs ago but he is held by the selection on his last run at Kempton. There are a few in the race that get first time head gear, so improvement could come from any of them but I am hoping it comes from Hot Tub. Ad Vitam is a CD winner and a return to this trip will suit, as he has been running over shorter in recent starts. It looks a very trappy little class 7 handicap, where I think a case can be made for very few of the runners. Christine Dunnett does not have the best of records at the track but I am sure this applies to most tracks as she is not exactly a prolific trainer. She hasn’t had many winners recently and her last 6 runners have gone off 33/1+. The 2 33/1 runners have run well to both finish 4^th in their respective races and I don’t think you have to have winners for your stable to be in form. I am not saying they are in great form or anything but numbers can be deceiving. Still I think Hot Tub can run a good race here if building on his latest effort, in what is a very poor race. He is one of the least exposed horses in the race and I fancy him to at least make the places.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

2.50 Wolverhampton Beneath 2pts win @ 6/1 Paddy Power This horse ran an encouraging race on his return to action from over 100 days off. In his last 3 or 4 races they have been running him over inadequate trips but today he gets a return to 12f which is certain to suit. Adam Kirby rides him again which is a positive and the stable are in cracking form with all of their horses at the moment. This will only be his 7th run for the stable and I expect him to build on his 3rd last time out over 9f at this track.

god damn it! this horse SHOULD have won and would have had he not been battered by the stumbling horse. He would have won by a few lengths IMO lol pffffft

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Not much you can do I suppose. That's 2 BBOTD's that I feel should have won their races. Fair enough yesterday the jockey gave the horse a shocker but today Beneath was by far the best horse in the race. Badly hampered by a weakening horse but stayed on to challenge to again get stuck in behind horses. Once he finally got into the clear he flew to only just get beat by a small margin. Will be looking out for his next run as he was certainly unlucky today. Second selection was terrible and looks as though his run last time out was a flash in the pan. There was money for the winner all day so someone knew that was going to run well today. Toying with having one more bet on Elijah Pepper but more likely to save it for Meydan tomorrow. I don't know why though, as I have only had 1 good day there so far this year. Still it's the closet thing to good flat racing that we will see until the start of the flat so I am happy to keep backing runners at this meeting. -4pts ... so far

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 12.45 Meydan Monsieur Joe 1.5pts EW @ 8/1 Ladbrokes Wrote this about him last time out.....

4.20 Meydan Again in this race, the Irish look to have a strong challenge but the one I like is one of the English raiders in Monsieur Joe. He ran a few times at the carnival last year without success but he did grab a couple of 2nds. On both occasions he finished behind Happy Dubai. On the second occasion it was in a valuable sprint in which Prohibit finished in behind. Prohibit is a horse that interests me as this horse improved beyond all recognition when returned to the UK to win the King Stand at Royal Ascot. Now Robert Cowell trains that horse and tomorrow will be my selections first run for Robert Cowell. I think there is every chance he may be able to get a little more improvement out of Monsieur Joe. If doing so he will have a great chance in this. Last year he went well fresh and he does have a good record fresh so any absence would not be a problem for me. He has a big swing in the weights with Happy Dubai so I expect him to turn that form around with that one. Russian Rock won easy last time out but is up in grade and down in trip so I think will struggle. Humidor and Zero Money are interesting but I think the biggest threat may well come from the Irish challengers. The exuberant Mikael Barzalona takes the ride on this horse and he looks a cracking price at 10/1. He is proven over CD, he goes well fresh, top jockey on board, he is weighted to go close and he may well improved for the switch to Robert Cowell.

Same applies for this race but William Buick takes the ride on him today which is a plus. He hasn't had many winners over in Dubai but had 1 the other day at Jebel Ali. Monsieur Joe is bred by the Aussie speed-ball Choisir and I expect him to improve on his current rating of 100 sooner rather than later. He is a 5 year old and there should be plenty of improvement in him. He is an out and out 5f horse which can't be said for a few of his main opposition here. He is drawn in 6 which doesn't really make a difference but like last time out he will require some luck during the race to get a clear passage through. If Buick can steer him out of trouble then I can see him going very close. Been looking forward to him running again so hopefully he will run well.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 1.25 Meydan Hitchens 4pts win @ 5/1 Ladbrokes This is a tough looking group 3 on the Tapeta over 6f but I like the David Barron horse here. David Barron is a trainer I do follow and always pay interest to his runners. He has a few runners over at the carnival this year and they have all ran well so far. Hitchens ran a cracker on his debut in Meydan over CD and was just edged out by the re-opposing Captain Obvious. In that race Hitchens got shuffled back in the race further than he would like and the rider also dropped his whip. I am not saying he would have won but I think events conspired against him that day and he could have got much closer. He meets his conqueror that day on identical terms in this race but I expect a big run from Hitchens. He isn’t very well drawn in 9 but there looks to be plenty of hold-up types in the race so he might be able to tack across and sit in behind the front runners. Hitchens arguably has the best form on show in this race with his 3^rd in the Darley July Cup behind Bated Breath and Dream Ahead. He is also a group 3 winner and has regularly run well on the all weather back in the UK. I have no problems with him on this surface, as he proved last time out that he handles it. I think with that run under his belt he can turn the form around with Captain Obvious. Silvestre De Sousa rides him again and he felt that Captain Obvious got first run on him last time out so I would expect the jockey to follow that one round. Captain Obvious is rightfully the favourite after winning last time out and his trainer is in unbelievable form at the carnival. Alo Pura looked unlucky in that race and he can get closer in this but I think he is reliant on a strong pace and luck in running which he may not get. Krypton Factor was an impressive winner last time out in a handicap and he is the most likely pacesetter with him being drawn well in 3. Angel’s Pursuit looks set to run a big race and Sir Reginald ran an eye catching race last time out. He travelled extremely well in his last race but was set far too much to do by Jamie Spencer. Paul Hanagan takes the ride for this race and he looks a big threat after proving his ability is still there. The only other horse I would consider is Rerouted who drops back in trip for Mike De Kock. Twice he was used as a pace-maker for the mighty Frankel last year but he himself has plenty of talent. He is a group 3 winner and it would not be the biggest surprise if he were to run well. Even though I do tend to follow this stable, I think Hitchens has an excellent chance of taking this race. It would be a massive pay day for connections and I think the horse will be primed for a big run.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 2.00 Meydan Nanton 1pt EW @ 20/1 William Hill Taking a big risk with this bet but Nanton is one of my favourite horses in training. He is more versatile than any other horse I can think of and was in brilliant form last year. He won the Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar over 10f and then went on to finish 2^nd in the Mallard Stakes at Doncaster over this trip. He finished off the season with a 4^th in the Cambridgeshire and a 3^rd in group 3 company so you could say he was arguably in the best form of his life last year. He is a 10 year old now and there more talented horses in this race but Nanton very rarely runs a bad race. He was entitled to need the run last time out on his debut in Meydan and I expect him to improve on that performance. He did seem to travel well that day but the race was run at a very sedate pace which would not have suited him. Nothing in the race came from behind and those that were prominent filled the first few places. I think this trip will suit him more as he has probably lost some of his speed. He is a hold up horse but is capable of finishing very fast of a strong pace. The booking of Ryan Moore can only be seen as a positive and I expect a stronger ride from him in this race now Nanton has that run under his belt. The obvious starting point is Fox Hunt who is now under the care of Al Zarooni after moving from Mark Johnston. He ran some great races last year to finish a very close up 4^th in the Goodwood Cup and a good 7^th in the Melbourne Cup. He looks very progressive and looks the type to do well over staying trips at the carnival. Averroes is held by Fox Hunt on UK form but ran a blinder to win by 6 lengths over this trip last time out on his Meydan debut. That run came on the Tapeta surface and in a much weaker race so I doubt he will be stringing this field out as he did then. Still he looks one of the main protagonists. Glen’s Diamond won a group 3 at Chester but disappointed on his last effort in the UK. He suffered an injury that day and should come on plenty for his run last time out in Dubai. He takes a step up in trip here and should go close if fully fit and if handling the extra distance. Other than the already mentioned horses, I think it looks fairly weak and I could easily see Nanton running into a place. Will be interesting to see where the pace comes from in this race but both Fox Hunt and Electrolyser are possible front runners. Even Manjakani can lead so there could be a decent pace to the race. This would suit Nanton as he does travel strongly in his races and like I said before, he is capable of a power packed finish. A similar ride to that of which Ryan Moore gives Presvis on a regular basis will do nicely and hopefully he can get up for at least a place.