BBOTD 22nd of August

[Aidymac]

Botham - Hamilton 5:05 Cant believe the price of this horse, 33/1 is crazy i think. Is a course and distance winner two times, is a course winner 5 times and has been in the top three 12 times from 22 runs at this track, over 50%.... When Tudhope rides him at this track he is 1-10-4-1-3 from 5 runs and it won off a mark of 62 back in 2009, same mark it runs off tomorrow. Huge price i think and dont think the 33/1 will last. 0.5 Points E/W @ 33/1 (Hills) BOG

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD 22nd of August 7.50 Windsor Willow Dancer has been in good form recently but has to prove he has the stamina for this trip which will be the first time he has tried this since he was a 3yr old when he didnt get the trip. Kens Girl is a bit of a mud lover and has won over CD twice including this season on soft ground, but will need a career best effort and the presence of other front runners is off putting. Moynahan is sure to get a race run to suit and has often ran well and looked unlucky but awful strike rate is enough to put me off. Miss Bootylishes is another that has been in good form recently but is another that has to prove stamina over this trip and a mile has looked to stretch her at times. Colincas Lad is another front runner in this field and is the one that I am most interested in despite being 3lb out of the weights here, he is a rapidly improving 9yr old who hasnt had much racing for his age, was a clear cut winner by 4lengths over CD last time out in an apprentice event that was his 3rd win on the bounce, goes unpenalised except for being 3lb out of the handicap but Rossie Jessop who rode last time takes off a further 2lb so effectively only a 1lb higher and may have not stopped improving just yet. The Cayterers comes from the Carroll yard who are having a fine time of things at the moment and Rual De Silva looks well worth his 7lb claim which takes him 14lb below his last winning mark, has been in good form over hurdles recently and was beaten far last time out on the flat and could be ready to strike again soon but so well handicapped and good record around here 8 runs with 3 wins cannot be ignored. Galiando is of obvious interest with only 3 runs to date, winning a maiden at Goodwood on debut before running 2 good efforts in handicaps only just failing to get up in the dieing strides when only beaten a neck should appreciate the step up in trip and clearly on a workable mark and open to more improvement yet with a guaranteed pace to chase in this race. 1pt win Galiando 9/4 hills

[ballyoisin_bomb]

Re: BBOTD 22nd of August 1point win carragold 11/2 WH 330 hamilton thriving at present carragold has won 3 of his last 4 starts. while he carries a penalty for his latest win he can continue his streak now upped in trip.

[hereforthep]

Re: BBOTD 22nd of August 16.55 Hereford Eastlake - 1[t win @ sp Eastlake should make a winning return here he has shown good form in bumpers winning on debut and the penalty today is unlikely to be a problem with further improvements promised

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD 22nd of August 3:30 Hamilton - Lil Ella - e/w @ 50/1 (Bet365) This is a complete shot in the dark and is possibly a waste of a couple of points. However, Lil Ella looks very interesting on some of her previous Irish form and could well bounce back to form now that she's tackling a stiff track again having run over speed orientated tracks last twice. This cheaply purchased 4 year old was hammered on both occasions, beaten a total of 43 lengths - but that doesn't really tell the whole story. Both races were fairly stop-start, muddling affairs which turned into sprints as the fields turned for home. This just doesn't suit an animal like her and with a better gallop being likely here, we could see a much improved effort. It's quite possible that Lil Ella is just regressive and not up to much nowadays, as she has shown little - including over hurdles - since joining the Patrick Holmes stable last December. However, she was subject to immensely strong support on her hurdling debut for the new yard, having been punted from 12/1 into 6/1 in a very short space of time before the off. Her jumping let her down and her next couple of outings over jumps were no better. I'd imagine that she was showing something to be well-backed that day (unless someone was playing a trick), even though it was all in vain. Lil Ella was given a number of months off before returning to race over 1m 4f at York (last month) and having been easy to back in a 7 runner claimer, she ran accordingly. It wasn't a run void of promise though, as she wasn't beaten off until the race turned into a sprint with a few furlongs to go. It's also possible that a lack of any recent outing was against her, even though she won first time up as a 3 year old. It was a similar story next time out, as they went slow early on and blasted off after they turned for home. In the end, she trailed home in second last position and disappointed, but speed tracks just aren't her thing and since that race the handicapper has dropped her another 8lbs - which is an obvious help. Lil Ella is now 11lbs below her Irish handicap win (race wasn't run to suit, effort can be marked up) at the fairly testing Sligo track and with the return to a track like Hamilton being a massive plus, I think she could run well. She also came to hand later on in the season during both of her 2 & 3 year old campaigns so now may be the time to start following her. The yard don't have too many horses but Patrick Holmes seems to be able to train 'em and has managed 12/1 and 14/1 winners from his only 7 runners since July. He makes a near 400 mile round trip (first visit to track) to run this filly and hopefully it's with the intent of causing a shock. Also, it's 9 days since she last ran, so how she'll take the short gap between races is an unknown - her race fitness should be improved at least. The in-form and extremely useful Daniel Tudhope is booked (very average jockey on last twice), so that can only be seen as a positive. The trip should be no problem for the horse, the track is ideal and although the ground is a slight worry (would like it softer), I'll take my chances as the odds are huge. She's not a winner waiting to happen or anything and could well run a shocker, but much more is in her favour today than on her only couple of runs this season, so I'll happily have minimal each-way stakes at the massive price on offer. She's also taking a drop in grade, which is another plus. The opposition really aren't much use and I'd probably take the 13/2 about Artisan if I was going to back a shorter priced one. However, it's the sort of race that could throw up a shock and this animal has talent to show when she's back to her best, so hopefully it'll be today.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD 22nd of August 5.15 Kempton Golden Tempest 11/1 Hills I like this trainer at this track. I like the young jockey on board and the horse goes well at the track. Went close here 2 runs ago off a 2lb lower mark but the jockey's claim puts him 1 lb lower than that mark of 80 so he must have a big chance here of getting involved.

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD 22nd of August 5.05 Hamilton I'm Super Too won so comfortably lto that I think he looks a good thing to go in again today. Penalty makes life tougher and although he has never won off a mark this high he has run well off only a few pounds lower. Stable in great form and the horse is 3 from 4 here and should go very close at least. 1 Pt win 7/2 Bet365

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD 22nd of August K5.15 Ocean Legend 0.5pt E/W 25/1 Stan James This is one of those unusual horses that will run below par pretty much everywhere except over a certain course and distance. The result of this is that when it gets back to its favourite conditions, it is invariably well handicapped following some disappointing runs and that appears to be the case here. A 3lb claimer is reunited with the horse again today (the jockey is 2 from 3 at the course) and the horse is 5lb lower than its last winning mark. Everything looks set for a good run at a nice e/w price.

[TGS]

Re: BBOTD 22nd of August Hamilton 3.30 1 pt win Unknown Rebel - 8/1 (>Bet365) Haven't got a lot of time today, this was the first race i looked at and there seems to be a few in with a chance here. Preference is for Unknown Rebel who has run well the last twice. One of those over C+D in a race which has worked out well (2nd, 4th and 5th all winning since) before going on to win a 5 runner event at Chester. Has the plum draw in stall 1 and should make a bold bid.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD 22nd of August 530 Hereford: Moorstead (11/4 Hills) Only 5 runners and Moorstead should get his own way up front, a much better horse when able to dictate and the danger appears to be the debut runner from the Pipe yard who has her first run since coming from France, could be anything but the form doesnt look anything special. The others look hold up horses and are in moderate form.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD 22nd of August They say when a trainer is in form stick with that trainer. Well Trainer Mr Ellison is in form and sends up just the one for Hamilton, his 3yr old gelding was doing all his best work at the business end last time out, he should get today's extra trip and i cant see the ground being any trouble to him. Horse, Jockey & Trainer all rate a confident bet in my book. Hamilton 3:30 Artisan - 1pt win most firms Hills Betfred Tote etc Chicken or Beans for Dinner Mmmmm.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD 22nd of August Hereford 6.30 Slip win - 5/1 SJ Ran out a winner in a very hot little novice chase lto beating decent McCain and Gordon Elliot yardsticks. Used to be pretty decent on the flat and I wouldn't be surprised if Tim Vaughan manages to win with him over hurdles today. Yard is in fantastic form.

[DM99]

Re: BBOTD 22nd of August 3.30 Hamilton - Philharmonic Hall (1 pt WIN 16/1 VC) Seems to a be a popular race on here, and for good reason! A lot of young horses with good form make up this race. I think that Philharmonic Hall is in with a good shout today. He is clearly improving over time and posting consistent speed ratings. His OR isn't any higher than his last few runs and like many three year olds, is likely to improve up in trip. Fahey has a great course record as a bonus. He isn't too far off ability some of the shorter odds horses so in this case he is a clear value call.

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD 22nd of August 17:05 Hamilton CHOOKIE ROYALE has drifted to 10/1 without a BOG concession and that's a big price for a horse who definitely has potential to be rated in the 80's by the end of the season and an opening mark of 75 looks quite lenient. Twice raced, showed promise on debut (track too sharp and was short of room) before winning in game fashion over 6f here. That trip looked the bare minimum for him and the testing track here obviously helped. Will improve bundles for the step up in trip, both on running style and breeding (related to stacks of middle-distance winners, dam winner over this trip). It may be that today he struggles with the hustle and bustle of a big field handicap, as he's still likely to be a little bit green. Even so, I had priced him up at the 15/2 mark, so 10/1 looks generous. His trainer remains in good form for his debut season and he's a horse to keep an eye on in the future. It may be that it just comes too soon but he has the potential to rout this kind of field, as he's on a good mark, unexposed, and likely to enjoy this trip. CHOOKIE ROYALE; 1pt EW @ 10/1 Stan James

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD 22nd of August 14:30 Ham Monte Mayor One - This 4year old has slipped down the weights to a career low rating of 53. Was 1 length second off 61 August last year at Cd in a class 5. Is 3rd run for Jim Goldie and dropping to class 6. Claimer is 5/45 for trainer and 20/1 looks a good EW bet. 0.5 bet365. 20/1

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD 22nd of August 2:45 Kempton - Shikri I'll take a chance with this one again as she was coming off a long lay off lto and maybe needed that to shake the cobwebs off. This will be her third maiden and interestingly she is stepping up 3f and remains in cl5 company, despite finishing 47 lengths behind 1st over 7 furlongs lto! The trainer, Eugene Stanford, has a small yard, so I would imagine he has plenty of time to work with each of his 3 horses. Will Carson is on this ride, as he has been for the previous two. 150/1 ew - vcbet

[cc75]

Re: BBOTD 22nd of August 3.30 Hamilton: Record Breaker 1pt win @ 16/1 Will Hill BOG Leap of faith with this one that you catch it on the right day. Johnston stable notoriously tought to catch the right horse at the right time but think that this one has a cracking chance today. Another no show LTO means this horse drops back to a mark of 70, 3lbs lower than last win at pontefract over a similar trip in April. Has more assistance in the saddle this time than for last couple of runs with Paul Hanagan taking over from an apprentice and with ground, trip and course no problem, would be no surprise to see this well handicapped horse leave recent poor form behind and go close at a price.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD 22nd of August 5.15 Kempton - 1pt win Cape Rambler @ 16/1 (VC) - BOG I possibly should pay attention to the weakness of this one in the market, but on bare form, he is no 16/1 shot in this race. He's shown plenty of promise in all starts to date, as he ran in three tough maidens last year. He ran 6th of 14 on debut at Salisbury behind a smart winner in Royal Exchange, with the useful Fight The Chance in 3rd. He built on this when 3rd of 12 on his second start - unfortunately meeting the top-class Dream Ahead who romped to victory. He was 3rd again in his 3rd maiden, again meeting a nice type in Desert Law - who looks an improving sprinter to follow. Jinky was 2nd, and that decent yardstick confirmed the form by a head at Leicester on Cape Rambler's 4th effort. He was off the track for around 9 months until returning at Lingfield on the turf in July of this year. He was a well-backed odds on favourite, but he still had to put in a good performance to make all after such a long break from the racetrack. The race didn't look anything special and he was hanging on at the finish, but he's fully entitled to have needed it and get tired late on. He should be fitter for that, and can go well in a better race. His maiden form looks strong and I expect a big run unless there's something amiss!

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD 22nd of August 7.50 windsor On khee - has a good course record, placed over CD and still open to improvement on what is only 17th run. Went off too fast last time but chance here if keeping more in reserve. 20/1 hills, 1 pt win

[Irishbugger]

Re: BBOTD 22nd of August 6.50pm @ Windsor 'Imaginary Diva' 9/2 (ladbrokes) Very much a wee horse in form and possibly on the upgrade, winning 1 and a 2nd in last 3 runs. Last win looked a shade cosy in front of some established horses and colourbearer who was behind there won easy next time. Hard to beat tonight in this kinda form. 1 point win

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 22nd of August 4:00 Hamilton - Quails Hollow - Back Looks absolutely certain to win a race at some point and has been found a gilt edged opportunity here. He's a certainty on paper based on both form and also on weights/ratings as he's rated best but carrying least. Would be a massive upset if he got beaten here 1pt win @ sp

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD 22nd of August

They say when a trainer is in form stick with that trainer. Well Trainer Mr Ellison is in form and sends up just the one for Hamilton, his 3yr old gelding was doing all his best work at the business end last time out, he should get today's extra trip and i cant see the ground being any trouble to him. Horse, Jockey & Trainer all rate a confident bet in my book. Hamilton 3:30 Artisan - 1pt win most firms Hills Betfred Tote etc Chicken or Beans for Dinner Mmmmm.

Beans AGAIN. Cant work these horses out just now, shocking run this month. Time to fling in the towel. Later chaps, catch yous in the winter time.:puke

[punterpete]

Re: BBOTD 22nd of August 7.50 Windsor Colinca's Lad win @ 13/2 Stan James Has been in sparkling form recently completeing a hat-trick with Rosie Jessop in the saddle. This has coincided with a switch to front running tactics being adopted. Is 3lbs out of the handicap here but is lightly raced in reality fr a 9 year old and if given a soft lead could complete the 4 timer here.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD 22nd of August Chris @ 9/4 CPO @ 11/1 Andyjmak @ 7/2 TGS @ 8/1 Wizzkid @ 1/9 Some great NAP's today lads, well done! :clap