England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August

[Simao BVB]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August

I cant blame anyone for opting for Liverpool , I feel Arsenal are there for the taking. Kenny would of been studying the Gunners an realize they have defensive frailties and the Reds will be looking to exploit them. Arsenal have numerous players missing for game an Liverpool more or less have full squad to choose from. Downing looked lively on Saturday i can see him building on that. I'm confident the Reds will take at least a point back to Anfield, my bet would be Liverpool on some sort of handicap, but prices are short.

I think that it's trap written all over this game, sure Arsenal have a lot of injuries, are making silly mistakes in the back and are probably now the worst team in years, but also Liverpool doesn't strike me as a squad ful of confidence, that can be trusted in away game vs Arsenal. Downing is a player that i see as overrated, sure he has nice left foot and pace but A. Young is definitely better player of the two, providing with lots of useful balls in the box and also scores more regularly. The other very overrated player similar to Downing is Milner.

[b10111]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August

I think that it's trap written all over this game' date=' sure Arsenal have a lot of injuries, are making silly mistakes in the back and are probably now the worst team in years, but also Liverpool doesn't strike me as a squad ful of confidence, that can be trusted in away game vs Arsenal. [b']Downing is a player that i see as overrated, sure he has nice left foot and pace but A. Young is definitely better player of the two, providing with lots of useful balls in the box and also scores more regularly. The other very overrated player similar to Downing is Milner.

To all punters who have been lumping money on the reds thanks because the price has moved nicely in favour of Arsenal.I will be brutally honest and say as much as Im not confident Arsenal will win the game Im also confident Liverpool wont win.The most likely result is a draw because liverpool bar Suarez are just not good enough to open up sides away from home especially those of the quality of Arsenal. Arsenal look solid defensively and for a team that has new players who are yet to gel dont bet on Liverpool scoring a lot of goals away from home.I just dont get people who a punting on Liverpool to win, the handicap option is probably the best. To be frank van Persie and Arshavin are good enough to score from nothing so the most likely winner would be Arsenal although Im almost certain this is a draw.

[mad_men]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Liverpool is a trap ??? Cmon guys... did you actually watched how Ars played against Udinese and NewCastle.... This is probably the best time went to fade them. And knowing that they picked up a couple more injuries against Udinese to already depleted squad, we cant ask for better situation for fading them. Liverpool played good against Sunderland.... they had their chances but didn't convert them to goals. Anyway.... at this moment Liverpool (0) AH @ 2.09 Pinnacle is one of the best bets in this round.

[mandrew420]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August OMG sry bad thread....just ignore it sry guyz :sad

[western skies]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August

OMG sry bad thread....just ignore it sry guyz :sad

Moved it for you. :ok

[slizorn]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Sport Football (England - Prem) Event Arsenal vs Liverpool Selection Liverpool 0.0 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 20/08/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.08 Reasoning Arsenal's squad is far from ideal with several players being out through injury (i.e. Wilshere), suspension (i.e. Gervinho) and being/wanting to be transferred i.e. Fabregas & Nasri). Liverpool looked impressive in the opening fixture vs Sunderland and were unfortunately unable to capitalize on their chances. Overall, I feel that Liverpool have a very good chance of winning this fixture given the circumstances of the Arsenal team. Sport Football (England - Prem) Event Bolton vs Man City Selection Man City -1.5 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 21/08/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 3.10 Reasoning Man City, well in particular Johnson, Silva, Aguero and Yaya Toure, were very impressive in their match vs Norwich. Sure it was against newly promoted side Norwich however, their teamwork and inter-play with one another was really good. With Nasri potentially going to Man City as well, the Man City side will be a formidable one to reckon with. Bolton come into this game off a 4-0 win over newly promoted sides QPR. In comparison to Man City's game, I feel that Bolton were a bit lucky with one or two fo their goals. The last time these two met, Man City won 2-0 away at the Reebok stadium. I feel with the addition of Aguero, Bolton will be torn apart by the now title contenders that City are.

[Profit Prophet]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August

Liverpool is a trap ??? Cmon guys... did you actually watched how Ars played against Udinese and NewCastle.... This is probably the best time went to fade them. And knowing that they picked up a couple more injuries against Udinese to already depleted squad, we cant ask for better situation for fading them. Liverpool played good against Sunderland.... they had their chances but didn't convert them to goals. Anyway.... at this moment Liverpool (0) AH @ 2.09 Pinnacle is one of the best bets in this round.

I think if you act disciplined and take into account games across a whole season across all of europe there will be several games at the odds you mention that are considerably better value. For example, you could have got those similar odds on Rennes +1 v Psg last week. The bookies have the advantage over us in many ways, however one advantage we have as punters over them, is that they have to draw up odds for every match/outcome. That advantage isn't to be under-estimated imo. I think if anything, the posts on the game so far indicate that we should keep away from the 1/x/2 result and either move on to other games or find value in another market such as corners,cards etc... Just my opinion but i think good cases can be made for any result and any margin. When it's like that it's best to keep away in my experience.

[Aidymac]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August

Yes Man Utd have a phenomanal record at home against Spurs' date=' so isnt about time that record was quashed? United have many injuries and were lucky to pick up the 3 points at The Hawthorns. Also, put in the fact of Tottenham's very bad luck at this ground for goalscoring opportunities - Pedro Mendes' effort that clearly went over the line! Nani's goal I think it was last season where Gomes thought he had a free kick. Spurs are due some luck at this stadium and I think its about to change[/quote'] Man United were undefeated at home last season, and that was with a misfit squad!! Doesnt matter who wears the jersey they always eek out the results.. Fergie is a wizard, Spurs to win at old trafford??? NAH ... United have a phenomanal record against nearly every team at home so are they all going to be quashed??? Yes poor Mendes was unfortunate that day, but you make your own luck in football... Some decisions go for you, some go against you (for every team).. Who will win??? United

[Profit Prophet]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August I'm suprised nobody has highlighted the Swansea v Wigan game. Everyone seems to be caught in Liverpools chances at Arsenal. What about Wigans at Swansea!? Wigan draw no bet is a fantastic price and imo far far better value than Liverpool at Arsenal. Reasoning : Both adopt an almost identical system as to be expected considering Martinez began it all at Swansea before moving to Wigan and implementing the same style. Wigan have played the system for longer with the same set of players. Wigans players are superior to swanseas. Wigan have alot more of an attacking threat. Wigans defence should cope fairly well with swanseas lame attack. Wigan should be able to penetrate swansea fairly weak defence. Wigan are renowned for picking up points away from home against fairly vulnerable home sides (wolves,villa etc..) The pressure is on swansea. Playing possession football at home in the prem wont be as easy as it was in the championship and they must commit men forward at some point. Do they have the positional skills when in transition? Imo no, and they will be exploited. Swansea often drew alot of games even in the championship. Swansea lost alot of players during the summer. Keeper to Wolves, Striker to Italy, Pratley to Bolton etc... For me all points to a Wigan win and i'd be suprised to see swansea take all 3 points. Wigan draw no bet @ 2.60 :loon That's the hidden gem in the prem this week for me.

[Aidymac]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Sunderland Win 6/5 Bet365 Fancy Sunderland to win this, even though it is a tough derby match. Was really impressed with the way Sunderland played at Anfield, they look sharp, fit, passionate and full of zest! I though it was a much better performance than Newcastle's performance at home to Arsenal. I thought Newcastle were poor enough against Arsenal, Arsenal had a load of the ball but could not convert in the fianl 3rd, Newcastle did not threaten Arsenal as much as i thought they would and i thought they should have scored against that Arsenal outfit who are going backwards. Sunderland have home advantage and are a side in form, odds against is good value to me. Aston Villa Win 4/5 Coral Again i think Villa are a good price here. Blackburn were shocking last weekend, abysmal is the word.. Villa played very well at Fulham and earned a hard-fought draw against a side that are known for being very dangerous at home, Given had a fantastic game but Villa created a few chances of their own. Back at home they will attack Blackburn from the off, Blackburn dont have the fire-power to trouble many teams this season and their manager will be probably first to get the boot. Villa win for me. Everton Win 6/11 Unibet QPR were horrendous defensively at home to Bolton last week and were shown a lesson. Everton are going to show them lesson number 2 i feel.. The manner in which QPR leaked goals at home last weekend suggests it will be easy pickings for Everton who have a potent strike-force and are good defensively, especially at home. Manchester City Win 5/6 Boylesports Even though Bolton won impressively last weekend, they were under immense pressure in the first half and were lucky not to concede. I was extremely impressed with Aguero the other night and if he plays he will cause havoc, City were very good at the back against Swansea also, Kompany is a rock for them and it is hard to see City losing this game, especially if they have aspirations to win the league. Also doing a fourfold on the four teams with Powers @ just under 10/1

[Aidymac]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Liverpool Win 2/1 Betfred Liverpool were rather poor in the second half against Sunderland but nonetheless i think they have the structure and fire-power to cause Arsenal all sorts of problems. Arsenal have been shocking, they look like they are on the verge of collapse , Udinese outplayed them for most of the game and were unlucky not to go away with a result and Arsenal ould not break down what looked like a weak enough Newcastle side. Carroll, Suarez and Adam are going to cause Arsenal all sorts of problems and i think Liverpool will sneak this game. Wigan Win 12/5 Skybet I am a bit bemused why a team that just got promoted and lost their opening fixture 4-0 are deemed by far and away the bookies favs to win this game. Wigan at over 2/1 is a cracking price in my opinion. We still dont know how Swansea are going to cope with this league and so far they fell apart against City in the second half. Wigan have the experience to beat this side, yes it will be a tight game and Swansea do play attacking exciting football, but will they get away with that in the premier league???? I dont think so, they need a balance between attack and defence in this league. Wigan overpriced. Stoke Win 15/8 Stanjames Again i am not convinced that Norwich are up to much. Yes they drew away to Wigan last weekend but that was only courtesy of a blooper from Al-Habsi. Stoke are very dogged and the Delap throws are going to cause them all sorts of problems. Again i think Stoke should be around the 6/4 mark or 13/8 tops, too big a price against a side that just got promoted. Also doing a treble with Powers @ just under 27/1..

[mad_men]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August

I think if you act disciplined and take into account games across a whole season across all of europe there will be several games at the odds you mention that are considerably better value. For example, you could have got those similar odds on Rennes +1 v Psg last week. The bookies have the advantage over us in many ways, however one advantage we have as punters over them, is that they have to draw up odds for every match/outcome. That advantage isn't to be under-estimated imo. I think if anything, the posts on the game so far indicate that we should keep away from the 1/x/2 result and either move on to other games or find value in another market such as corners,cards etc... Just my opinion but i think good cases can be made for any result and any margin. When it's like that it's best to keep away in my experience.

Mate..... I'm working for betsafe.com, i know what kind of advantages bookies have over punters ;) And asian handicap is the way to go in this game.

[Profit Prophet]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August

Liverpool is a trap ??? Cmon guys... did you actually watched how Ars played against Udinese and NewCastle.... This is probably the best time went to fade them. And knowing that they picked up a couple more injuries against Udinese to already depleted squad, we cant ask for better situation for fading them. Liverpool played good against Sunderland.... they had their chances but didn't convert them to goals. Anyway.... at this moment Liverpool (0) AH @ 2.09 Pinnacle is one of the best bets in this round.

Hi mad-men, I wasn't trying to put you down, i was just highlighting the advantage we do have. I don't know how much you do or don't know? The reason i pointed it out was because of this comment, especially the c'mon guys.... and the one of the best bets...etc... Firstly, Arsenal didn't lose either of those games and as the old saying goes 'the sign of a good side is to still win when they're not playing well'. I'm not suggesting Arsenal should be backed but to use 2 games as your main arguement isn't really substantial evidence imo. Especially when Arsenal and Wenger do have something to prove and traditionally they start a season very well (until xmas/spring). Secondly, you say it's one of the best bets of the round but don't really back that up. In fact you highlight a reason why it's not by stating Liverpool missed several opportunities v Sunderland. It's logical to assume they'll get less chances v Arsenal. Finally, saying you work for x so you know it's the best bet, again what's that supposed to mean? It's hardly substantiated evidence. Your selection may very well come off but in terms of Value imo it is a poor bet when compared to the 6000 other matches that occur over a season across Europe. There's one this week in Wigan. I think analysing them together is useful in determing the value of each. I know i'd rather take Wigan DNB or +1 than Liverpool DNB or +1

[mad_men]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Profit.... First thing: I mentioned where I m working because you started to write some kind of things about ''value'' as i am some newbie. Please.....You dont need to teach me here. We are discussing in this topic about games in this particular league, in this particular round. Why you are mentioning Rennes +1 here...who cares....stay on the topic please. Secon thing: Do You actually watched both games what Arsenal played ?? I guess not if you are saying that they will have less chances than against Sunderland. I have watched Arsenal for years and they are one of my favourite teams, but lets be realistic here. Sagna - Koscielny - Vermaelen - Jenkinson and Frimpong - Rosicky - Ramsey............yeah very ''decent'' team. :puke Third thing: If people already wrote about Arsenal poor performance, injury problems, do you think i have to write again ? People wrote good stuff already and i dont need to repeat it one more time. Thats why i didnt write half paragraph why i think Liverpool is one of the best bets in this particular league, in this particular round. I m not saying that there isn't possible to find some really nice bets in corners or cards markets, but those are only good if you put few hundreds on game.... For every market there are some limits and asian handicaps are the way to go if you want to put some serious money. You think Wigan DNB is better than Liverpool DNB. Different people, different opinions. End of story. Anyway... good luck with your bet.

[AHughes]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Swansea v Wigan: Wigans away record is a lot better than their home one for starters, I just feel their PL experience will get through this one. Both like to play with the ball on the ground and I think Wigan have the better players to do that than Swansea and will match their game. Both seem weak at the back also so I expect goals here as Wigan always seem to pop up with goals away from home whereas Swansea are out to prove a point after being beaten 4-0 to City. These 2 faced off in last seasons Carling Cup. Wigan won that day 2-0 and I remember reading a very unbiased report from a swans fan saying that Wigan took them apart that day and easily could of handed swansea a thrashing. Ok, so a bit has changed since then with Swansea's new players and Wigan losing N'Zogbia, but Moses looks a worthy replacement. Martinez knows about this Swansea side having managed them also. Bets: Wigan to win - 3.5 William Hill Both teams to score - 1.9 William Hill Victor Moses Anytime scorer - 4.5 William Hill

[Profit Prophet]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August

Profit.... First thing: I mentioned where I m working because you started to write some kind of things about ''value'' as i am some newbie. Please.....You dont need to teach me here. We are discussing in this topic about games in this particular league, in this particular round. Why you are mentioning Rennes +1 here...who cares....stay on the topic please. Secon thing: Do You actually watched both games what Arsenal played ?? I guess not if you are saying that they will have less chances than against Sunderland. I have watched Arsenal for years and they are one of my favourite teams, but lets be realistic here. Sagna - Koscielny - Vermaelen - Jenkinson and Frimpong - Rosicky - Ramsey............yeah very ''decent'' team. :puke Third thing: If people already wrote about Arsenal poor performance, injury problems, do you think i have to write again ? People wrote good stuff already and i dont need to repeat it one more time. Thats why i didnt write half paragraph why i think Liverpool is one of the best bets in this particular league, in this particular round. I m not saying that there isn't possible to find some really nice bets in corners or cards markets, but those are only good if you put few hundreds on game.... For every market there are some limits and asian handicaps are the way to go if you want to put some serious money. You think Wigan DNB is better than Liverpool DNB. Different people, different opinions. End of story. Anyway... good luck with your bet.

Hi mate, First off, i'm not trying fall out with you:ok We all have different opinions just perhaps some opinions are better backed up than others? As i said before, mentioning value was part of my reasoning and i felt an important point to mention. I couldn't exactly mention it without using an example. Rennes was a recent example because they were a solid home team playing a psg team that the bookies over rated due to their spending. Odds were similar to liverpool but the value was better in my opinion for various reasons and they were an example of it. Wigan are another example and if you look at my write up on why they are i list several reasons for that. Restricting value to one league isn't really neccessary and value should be determined by comparing all manner of matches available to us. I do think it's an important point worth publishing, that we do have an advantage over the bookies in the amount of data they need to assess and comparing one odd to another is useful ie- liverpool dnb or wigan dnb. I wasn't saying you don't know this, it was just part of my reasoning to question your statement that claimed it was one of the best bets of the round. Anyway back to the game. Obviously Arsenal are weaker than they have been in recent years but they have yet to lose or concede this season. It's only 2 games but that isn't enough anyway in my opinion to make any assumptions on. They do start the season better than they finish it and Wenger/Arsenal do have something to prove as do the players that are expected to step up such as Wilshire/ramsey/walcott etc... The question for me is 'are liverpool strong enough to capitalise on Arsenal's weakenesses?' Imo i don't think we can yet answer that with any confidence. Arguements can be made for any result really and if you can do that in my experience it's too close to call, too dependant on thin margins and one is relying on alittle luck. Therefore move on to another match or market where we can assess the variables more clearly, include scenarios that go against us and still safe guard profit or breaking even. I wont be betting on this game for those reasons. Whereas when i assess the variables in the Wigan match, i can account for a red card, or early goal conceded, or unlucky in front of goal etc..etc... and still see my stake being safe as a minimum. Therefore when comparing the 2 wigan dnb @ 2.60 offers singificant value in the long term over Liverpool. As did Rennes. Again, only my opinion, but it's this discipline, understanding and patience that tips the balance in our, the punters favour. Good luck with your bet, but for me i haven't any idea what the outcome will be and i can see all manner of results with equal probability.

[Pay Day]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August What to people think of: Everton QPR- QPR AH + 1 @ evens Betfair QPR were indeed awful last weekend, especially individual errors at the back. The score line somewhat flattered Bolton, especially after QPR bossed the 1st half and conceded a stunner with the last kick of the 1st half. This will be Everton's first home game of the season and will be looking to make a good start. However, for whatever reason, Everton always start off the seasons badly, it has become a recurring theme for them to steamroller their way through the 2nd half of the season after being in the lower half of the season till XMAS. The crowd will be quick to jump on the back of them without a good start here, especially as they assume it could be a cakewalk due to QPR's poor performance last week. Everton more often than not will win, but I think QPR could be a bit more dangerous away from home on the counter, with speed merchants Campbell and Routledge being cause for concern. The bet provide leverage even with a narrow Everton win and I believe it would be surprising to see them win by more than two, so bet this appeals. I don't expect the price to come in so will wait till nearer K/O

[Profit Prophet]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August

What to people think of: Everton QPR- QPR AH + 1 @ evens Betfair QPR were indeed awful last weekend, especially individual errors at the back. The score line somewhat flattered Bolton, especially after QPR bossed the 1st half and conceded a stunner with the last kick of the 1st half. This will be Everton's first home game of the season and will be looking to make a good start. However, for whatever reason, Everton always start off the seasons badly, it has become a recurring theme for them to steamroller their way through the 2nd half of the season after being in the lower half of the season till XMAS. The crowd will be quick to jump on the back of them without a good start here, especially as they assume it could be a cakewalk due to QPR's poor performance last week. Everton more often than not will win, but I think QPR could be a bit more dangerous away from home on the counter, with speed merchants Campbell and Routledge being cause for concern. The bet provide leverage even with a narrow Everton win and I believe it would be surprising to see them win by more than two, so bet this appeals. I don't expect the price to come in so will wait till nearer K/O

I don't think the odds on Everton winning are worth backing for as you point out they have started the season poorly frequently. But i don't think we can go against them really either. It could be argued, their poor starts gives them motivation to get off on a good footing this time around. Also, Qpr are abit of an unknown at the minute. I think it's a game to either leave or find value in the in play market. One bet that might be worth considering is half time = draw?

[Pay Day]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August

Profit.... First thing: I mentioned where I m working because you started to write some kind of things about ''value'' as i am some newbie. Please.....You dont need to teach me here. We are discussing in this topic about games in this particular league, in this particular round. Why you are mentioning Rennes +1 here...who cares....stay on the topic please. Secon thing: Do You actually watched both games what Arsenal played ?? I guess not if you are saying that they will have less chances than against Sunderland. I have watched Arsenal for years and they are one of my favourite teams, but lets be realistic here. Sagna - Koscielny - Vermaelen - Jenkinson and Frimpong - Rosicky - Ramsey............yeah very ''decent'' team. :puke Third thing: If people already wrote about Arsenal poor performance, injury problems, do you think i have to write again ? People wrote good stuff already and i dont need to repeat it one more time. Thats why i didnt write half paragraph why i think Liverpool is one of the best bets in this particular league, in this particular round. I m not saying that there isn't possible to find some really nice bets in corners or cards markets, but those are only good if you put few hundreds on game.... For every market there are some limits and asian handicaps are the way to go if you want to put some serious money. You think Wigan DNB is better than Liverpool DNB. Different people, different opinions. End of story. Anyway... good luck with your bet.

Two of those players (Rosicky, Ramsey) are international captains, one is vice-captain (Vermaelen), Sagna has over 30+ caps for France. It is a "decent" team when you see Walcott, Van Persie and Arshavin in offense. Frimpong and Jenkinson are unknown quantities. It's decent but nothing more, DEFINITELY a weaker team and squad than last year, no doubt. Emirates is still a tough place to go, and Arsenal haven't conceded a goal yet this season (maybe more through luck than judgement! :unsure) I would be weary those thinking Liverpool will cruise it. For me this game will finish a draw, and probably both managers will be satisfied with that. Anything above evens for Liverpool +0.5 is a good bet IMO

[Pay Day]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August

I don't think the odds on Everton winning are worth backing for as you point out they have started the season poorly frequently. But i don't think we can go against them really either. It could be argued, their poor starts gives them motivation to get off on a good footing this time around. Also, Qpr are abit of an unknown at the minute. I think it's a game to either leave or find value in the in play market. One bet that might be worth considering is half time = draw?

True. I guess Warnock might be a factor for me too, I cannot imagine a team managed by him at any level to go two successive games with big losses, but this isn't really a valid reason. I'll decide before the game what to do; your reply is appreciated :)

[Profit Prophet]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August I haven't had a welcome yet :cry Do only members with connection to royality get this honour? :p

[Pay Day]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August

I haven't had a welcome yet :cry Do only members with connection to royality get this honour? :p

I thought Mustafa welcomed you on another page/thread! :welcome - it might mean more from someone who has racked up a few more posts than me ;)

[Profit Prophet]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August

I thought Mustafa welcomed you on another page/thread! :welcome - it might mean more from someone who has racked up a few more posts than me ;)

Cheers mate, i feel involved and accepted now :lol

[Mustafa]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August

I haven't had a welcome yet :cry Do only members with connection to royality get this honour? :p

Here is another :welcome

[Profit Prophet]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Anyone think Villa v Blackburn has got DRAW written all over it? Mcleish is renowned for a defensive style, he has players at his disposal that don't really suit his preferred style. Add to that, it's first home game in charge, a hell of alot of pressure will be put on him to get a win and perform given the fact most Villa fans were against his appointment. Blackburn may have a few issues and i'd expect them to be fighting relegation this season but at the end of last season they showed us that they can grind results out. Arsenal away 0-0, West ham (drew i think), wolves won 2-3. The draw does seem to scream of value and maybe 1-1 too in the correct score market. I;ll be taking this on along with wigan dnb I was also thinking about Sunderland as Bruce always starts a season well in both his times at Wigan and Sunderland but with it being a local derby, i'm giving it a miss. Next Sunderland home game though is worth a good look imo. Premiership picks Wigan DNB @ 2.60 Villa Draw @ 3.30 Good luck everyone :hope

[mad_men]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August

Two of those players (Rosicky, Ramsey) are international captains, one is vice-captain (Vermaelen), Sagna has over 30+ caps for France. It is a "decent" team when you see Walcott, Van Persie and Arshavin in offense. Frimpong and Jenkinson are unknown quantities.

Rossicky is only a shadow of player what he was in past, his best days were few years ago. VanPersie looked clueless in front against Newcastle, those chances what Arshavin made for him, he blew it. Maybe its because of his fitness, or maybe he is missing nasri and fabregas.. who knows.... And the thing that your mentioned players are captains/vice captains, doesnt mean they are the best in their national team.... There is a reason why those players are not a first choise for Wenger when they had a full squad. Sagna, Walcot, Arshavin.... those three of this roster i would call a decent part of the team. Of course RVP is also decent.... but he has to pick up his form big time. If we look at odds, we have around 37%-29%-32% (pinnacle), i would personally rate them 32%-29%-37% in this particular situation....basically opposite like its right now. And its more than likely that odds till the kick off will drop on Liverpool.

[Penguin]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August

Anyone think Villa v Blackburn has got DRAW written all over it? Mcleish is renowned for a defensive style, he has players at his disposal that don't really suit his preferred style. Add to that, it's first home game in charge, a hell of alot of pressure will be put on him to get a win and perform given the fact most Villa fans were against his appointment. Blackburn may have a few issues and i'd expect them to be fighting relegation this season but at the end of last season they showed us that they can grind results out. Arsenal away 0-0, West ham (drew i think), wolves won 2-3. The draw does seem to scream of value and maybe 1-1 too in the correct score market. I;ll be taking this on along with wigan dnb I was also thinking about Sunderland as Bruce always starts a season well in both his times at Wigan and Sunderland but with it being a local derby, i'm giving it a miss. Next Sunderland home game though is worth a good look imo. Premiership picks Wigan DNB @ 2.60 Villa Draw @ 3.30 Good luck everyone :hope

Agree with you about the Villa. I'm a Villa fan and we seem to be struggling to create opportunities at the moment, think we were lucky to get away from the Fulham game with a draw and it took a few great saves to keep us in it. Although on the other hand we always seem to play well against blackburn so ill be steering clear lol

[Profit Prophet]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August

Rossicky is only a shadow of player what he was in past, his best days were few years ago. VanPersie looked clueless in front against Newcastle, those chances what Arshavin made for him, he blew it. Maybe its because of his fitness, or maybe he is missing nasri and fabregas.. who knows.... And the thing that your mentioned players are captains/vice captains, doesnt mean they are the best in their national team.... There is a reason why those players are not a first choise for Wenger when they had a full squad. Sagna, Walcot, Arshavin.... those three of this roster i would call a decent part of the team. Of course RVP is also decent.... but he has to pick up his form big time. If we look at odds, we have around 37%-29%-32% (pinnacle), i would personally rate them 32%-29%-37% in this particular situation....basically opposite like its right now. And its more than likely that odds till the kick off will drop on Liverpool.

Hi Mad Men, You may be interested in this kind of analysis. You have predicted that you expect an average outcome of the match to be : Arsenal 32 % odds 1.80 DNB (or 0 AH) Draw 29 % Liverpool 37 % odds 2.10 DNB (or 0 AH) 37 (Liverpool %) * 1.10 (profit) = 40.7 32 ( Arsenal %) * 1.00 (loss) = 32.0 40.7 - 32.0 = 8.7 % ( Your average profit) You've predicted that Arsenal will not lose 61% of the time, therefore your odds should be 2.55 (39%) to justify the risk. (2.55 breakseven, However it's more complicated with you playing DNB and having your stake returned if it's a draw) Therefore, 2.55 is still a an acceptable number to account for profit and risk although if you wish to be exact you need to do additional math here, should roughly come out at a breakeven point of 2.25 but x % profit needs to be added which comes back to roughly 2.45-2.55 depending on your acceptable profit levels) Alternatively, presuming you are happy with the 2.10 odds on Liverpool 0 AH which produces 8.7% profit. Ideally, although not always, a general view is to aim for 25% profit as this covers miscalculation of your pre match predictions, statstical trend changes, uncontrollable variables such as red cards etc.. Therefore you need another 16.3% profit which is 25 % - 8.7 % = 16.3% 40.7 (current projected return) + 16.3 ( additional return) = 57 57 (return) * 100 (events) / 37 (% success) = 1.54 average profit 1.54 (profit) + 1.00 ( stake) = 2.54 odds Conclusion odds needed = 2.54 to 2.55 Of course we often have to take on bets with smaller margins or higher associated risk and of course the pre game prediction are each punters personal opinion. However, by your own pre match predictions the 8.7% profit you could expect doesn't really justyify the statement 'one of the best bets this round' I would associate a 'best bet' with a higher expected average return. :ok EDIT - i suppose if you agree with this analysis, that by taking the bet at 2.10 odds you have added additional success expectations to your hit ratio. You need to out perform your 37% pre match prediction by upto 15% better success rate.

[Jk]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Like quite a few bets this weekend. Norwich v Stoke - Under 2.5 @ 8/11 I'm tempted to take Norwich in this one after Stokes midweek exerts in Europe but I think I'll play a bit safer with the Under 2.5 market. Stoke are notoriously difficult to break down. Woodgate, Huth, Shawcross and Delap is a very difficult back four to break down whilst Begovic is an underated keeper. They showed at the weekend against Chelsea how difficult to break down they are. Norwich will be more attacking at home than they will away but I just don't think they have the quality to break down a very solid defence. On the flipside I don't think Stoke have the pace going forward to really trouble Norwich, especially with Etherington out injured. It should be a pretty close (and unexciting) game, probably likely to be a close 1-0 win or perhaps a 1-1 draw, but either way I'm pretty confident in the unders.

[Jk]

Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 20-22 August Swansea -1 vs Wigan @ 7/2 I'm expecting a big performance from Swansea here. Their first home game in the Premiership against one of the poorest sides in the league and a team who are still lacking match fitness after several players exerts in the Copa America. Despite losing 4-0 last week I was impressed with Swansea going forward. They're very comfortable on the ball and Dyer and Sinclair are real threats on the wing. The main test will be how well Danny Grahaem fits in but if he gets the supply I'm sure he'll score. I've mentioned before how I rate Brendan Rodgers as a manager and I think he'll have them up for this game. Wigan never take a big crowd so the Swansea fans could be the only ones making a lot of noise. I just have a big gut feeling that we're going to see a good Swansea performance here that might make people sit up a bit and take notice. Other bets: Scott Sinclair antime @ 15/8 and 1st scorer @ 6/1