Simmo Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 Hi all, As a Coventry fan, on the face of it, it would seem we have an uphill struggle on our hands tomorrow. Our last pre-season friendly saw us lose 3-0 at home to Norwich, and narrow wins against sides such as Leamington & Kettering hardly inspire confidence. Last season was largely woeful, with a slide after christmas that had us staring at relegation for a time. Andy Thorn has done fairly well since replacing Aidy Boothroyd just when things were at their worst, steering us to safety in the process, but the loss of Marlon King to Birmingham in the summer was a major blow, and we havent replaced him. Ben Turner, our only reasonably capable defender, is still on the sidelines. No-one worthy of note has been brought in. Most are aware of Leicester's dealings over the summer. Morale will be high and I expect them to pick up 3 points against us tomorrow. I also wouldn't be surprised if Leicester bring 5,000 to the Ricoh and drown the home fans out for the duration. One note of caution though, we do have a habit of picking up good results in the first 3-4 games each season- before reality sets in for the remaining 42. This season however, I feel could be miserable from the off :sad Suggested bets: Leicester to win Over 2.5goals Simmo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
western skies Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 :welcome to PL Simmo. I have a feeling that you'll be catching Leicester at the best possible time, before the new signings have had a chance to bed in and Sven has had a chance to identify his best team. It's also worth remembering that Leicester had a poor away record last season, which pretty much ended their play-off hopes. Pre-season favourites don't always start well in the Championship and, whilst I share your pessimism towards Coventry's chances this season, I wouldn't be that surprised if you get something from this game. Nice post by the way - hope we hear more from you on PL. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmo Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 Thank-you for the welcome and for your kind words. I've hung around these boards for quite some time. Lately I figured it was time to start contributing rather than just using everyone elses superb insights for myself. So yes, they'll be plenty more to come. Good luck to all this weekend :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icecreamdreams Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 On a few scorers as it's well hard to work out who is going to be settled and who will take take time to get used to the madness that is the championship! Nolan has to be backed at any price to get hammers started off well. He knows this league and hopefully he's near the top scorers throughout ;) Also on Murray to score for palace first game. My dad says this guy is a class operator and what we've been missing since Craig Beattie was ere firing em in! :p peterboro hopefully will take time to get used to this league n without mikado-smith. Also going to look at chopra to open is Ipswich account. B city not the best in defence and my mate plays centre back for them n even I scored a hat trick v him once! I was 15 tho! Betfair pretty lame putting up scorer markets but I think these are worthy of a punt seen as alot of defences could be bit shaky at the start of season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soundingstylish Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 Quick notes: Since the opening match has been switched to a Friday (on TV) both favourites have failed to win. 2010/11 Norwich 2-3 Watford (H - 1.83 X - 3.5 A - 4.33) and 2009/10 Middlesbrough 0-0 Sheffield Utd (H - 2.25 X - 3.25 A - 3.2) Hull only won once at home last season vs the top 12 teams. Last three H2H's between Middlesbrough & Portsmouth have ended in draws. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexc Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 Quick notes: Since the opening match has been switched to a Friday (on TV) both favourites have failed to win. 2010/11 Norwich 2-3 Watford (H - 1.83 X - 3.5 A - 4.33) and 2009/10 Middlesbrough 0-0 Sheffield Utd (H - 2.25 X - 3.25 A - 3.2) Hull only won once at home last season vs the top 12 teams. Last three H2H's between Middlesbrough & Portsmouth have ended in draws. Aye, but to put that in to perspective, Norwich were w*nk that day, and up against a side that was, for the first half of the season anyway, one of the most dangerous on the road. Middlesbrough were under Southgate, enough said. Hull's home form was bad last season, as I said in my post about this match, but I'm certain it'll improve this season. The 3-0 friendly win against Liverpool is a possible sign of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigtoe82 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 Quite a few palace fans on here....:clap Am very tempted to take Asian Handicap on Palace at +0 & 0.5 around 1.99, although heart ruling head probs, but we drew 1-1 at P'boro couple of years ago when we had the better of the game and 10 men and with them losing Mackail-Smith a huge % of their goals will be cut this year. Anyone going tomorrow? Getting up there for 11.30-12ish to get on it !:gimme Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindfulness Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 Also on Murray to score for palace first game. My dad says this guy is a class operator and what we've been missing since Craig Beattie was ere firing em in! :p peterboro hopefully will take time to get used to this league n without mikado-smith. Funny you know I also have a strange feeling Murray will score tommorow, maybe due to law of averages as he had a dry pre-season in terms of goals. I currently only operate in the 1X2 market but as an experiment this season I will offer my views for Palace league games and suggest some potential bets on various markets. Peterborough V Crystal Palace Difficult to see either side comming away with 3 points here, Palace's away record was woeful last term but the Posh will find it hard to replicate last years home form in the blood bath that is the Championship. Mackail-Smith is indeed a loss for Posh but I still expect them to play their brand of attacking football and Fergie Junior has bought in some young talent from Fergie Senior both loan and permanent. I expect Peterborough to have the lion share of the possesion here with Palace sitting back and countering with their superior quality. I don't expect either defence to keep a clean sheet, Peterborough being fairly vunerable at the back and Palace with a patchwork back 4 with Clyne and Moxey injured and suspended respectively. Probable Palace lineup: Speroni, Ramage, Davies, McCarthy, Parr, Wright, Dikgacoi, Scannell, Ambrose, Murray, Zaha If I had to bet on this game: Both teams to score @ 7/10 (Victor Chandler) Glenn Murray anytime goalscorer @ 9/4 (Ladbrokes) Feeling saucy: Sean Scannell anytime goalscorer @ 7/2 (Betfair) Correct score: 1-1 @ 13/2 (Betfair) Correct score: 2-2 @ 15/1 (Betfair) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 First round usually throws some unexpected results, so I'll try to make some profit with few unpopular bets. Leicester are going to Coventry as big favorites. Biggest price for an away win is 2.15 at bet365, which is way too low for away win in league like this. Especially in opening round. Eriksson brought in plenty of players, but I'm not sure if they can deliver straight away, and I feel they may struggle in opening rounds. Coventry are definitely weaker side than they used to be last season, but I think bookmakers have this match priced wrong and that there's some value in opposing Leicester. Coventry +0.5 @1.82 bet365 As already mentioned, Watford are far away from being underdogs at Burnley. Burnley looks like weaker side than last season, and neither of their departures haven't been replaced yet. Watford on the other hand lost Danny Graham, but they brought in solid replacement in Iwelumo from Burnley, and I give them much bigger chances in this match than 4.33 at boylesports suggests. Watford @4.33 boylesports Brighton should be a good bet against Doncaster. They always were decent home side, and in Doncaster they will have one of the weakest travelers from the last season. Brighton @1.91 bet365 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 Brighton should be a good bet against Doncaster. They always were decent home side, and in Doncaster they will have one of the weakest travelers from the last season. Brighton @1.91 bet365 :ok Tough to know how they will react to playing in a new stadium for the first time in over 10 years. It will be the first time they've played a league game in a proper stadium since they were at the Goldstone Ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 Tough to know how they will react to playing in a new stadium for the first time in over 10 years. It will be the first time they've played a league game in a proper stadium since they were at the Goldstone Ground. Yeah, I know that. But I expect this 22,000 sitter to be packed for this first match, so they will definitely have big support here. But I agree generally that we'll still have to see how they get used to their new home :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soundingstylish Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 Aye, but to put that in to perspective, Norwich were w*nk that day, and up against a side that was, for the first half of the season anyway, one of the most dangerous on the road. Middlesbrough were under Southgate, enough said. Hull's home form was bad last season, as I said in my post about this match, but I'm certain it'll improve this season. The 3-0 friendly win against Liverpool is a possible sign of this. Take friendlies with a pinch of salt, as I have been told numerous times ;) I was just posting some thoughts, not saying they won't win. Personally, betting on the first round of any league is like a game of darts. Everyone is pumped up no matter how shit they are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheerluck Holmes Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 But I agree generally that we'll still have to see how they get used to their new home :ok Worked wonders for Chesterfield last season. :) Can only be a good thing in my eyes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisey10 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 Hull v Blackpool Over 2.5 Goals: 2.00 @ Coral (5/10) I was initially thinking about taking Blackpool on the handicap but all this talk of player disputes over wages has put me off. Blackpool have lost a few players and Vaughn, Campell and Adam will be big losses. Barry Ferguson should be a good addition for the championship though and another oldie, Kevin Phillips should be able to bag a few in this attacking Blackpool side. I expect Blackpool to continue with their style of play which created plenty of goals last season and they should carry on where they left off. Hull have brought in quite a few youngsters so it's difficult to know how they will get on. But at home against this Blackpool side who have a number of players unhappy, they should be able to get on the scoresheet tonight. All in all, I fancy a few goals tonight and i'm happy with the price on offer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CFCWatson Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 Welcome back punters, I Feel funny saying that, considering I'm still relatively new! but good luck for the season anyway. First game of the year I'm jumping on Hull. I don't have a bulletproof reason, But I'm simply not convinced on Blackpool. They have lost too many players and their talismatic captain, so I'll side with Hull. Hull @ 2.60 Sportsbet GL All. Can't wait to get into the season, with proper analysis and opinions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexc Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 Take friendlies with a pinch of salt, as I have been told numerous times ;) I was just posting some thoughts, not saying they won't win. Personally, betting on the first round of any league is like a game of darts. Everyone is pumped up no matter how shit they are. I agree, but 3-0 against Liverpool is pretty emphatic, for a team as p*ss poor on home turf as Hull were last season. Friendlies do have to be taken with a pinch of salt, but I do believe the results sometimes provide subtle signs. We'll see :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soundingstylish Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 Quick notes: Since the opening match has been switched to a Friday (on TV) both favourites have failed to win. 2010/11 Norwich 2-3 Watford (H - 1.83 X - 3.5 A - 4.33) and 2009/10 Middlesbrough 0-0 Sheffield Utd (H - 2.25 X - 3.25 A - 3.2) Hull only won once at home last season vs the top 12 teams. Last three H2H's between Middlesbrough & Portsmouth have ended in draws. Three years in a row now! Hull fail to win at home, again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindfulness Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 Three years in a row now! Hull fail to win at home' date=' again.[/quote'] Yeh it's an interesting trend developing, also interesting game tonight. Hull passed it around well enough in 1st half and Brady in particular was good throughout. Blackpool seemed a little more incisive and looked the more likely to score. Phillips, Taylor-Fletcher and Ormerod are a dangerous forward unit. Fryatt for Hull was blunt, poor awareness and touch, shouldn't be too harsh as it's early doors. Blackpool matches will be hard to predict this year, a theme continued from their Premiership campaign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexc Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 Three years in a row now! Why do you keep bringing that meaningless stat up? Surprising result. Looked nailed on for a 0-0, but a stunner broke the deadlock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soundingstylish Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 Why do you keep bringing that meaningless stat up? Surprising result. Looked nailed on for a 0-0, but a stunner broke the deadlock. How is it meaningless? It shows that favourites buckle under the pressure of the cameras and it's a trend which a lot of bettors look out for. You obviously bet on feelings and you lost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexc Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 How is it meaningless? It shows that favourites buckle under the pressure of the cameras and it's a trend which a lot of bettors look out for. You obviously bet on feelings and you lost. I'll take my methods over betting on some irrelevant trend, every day of the week :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rufustipping Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 Have to say I was really impressed by Blackpool - thought they played some sublime stuff at times that the commentators failed to recognise. Certainly convinced me to at least take them seriously from here on. As for rest of the league - this is the biggest minefield of all three divisions. Had Ipswich to beat M'boro a year ago, but can't find much value here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dak Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 Nottingham Forest - Barnsley: Barnsley +0.5 (AH) @ 2.27 (10Bet) 10/10 The odds for the home win are ujustifiably short, I think. Yes, the hosts were in the playoffs for promotion and the guests ended the season in 17th place, but both teams haven't strengthened their rosters and both have new coaches. Last season, the match ended in a 2-2 draw (Barnsley went up 0-2!). At home, Nottingham dropped points in about 45% of its matches (13-8-2). Barnsley's away record, last season, was weak (3-8-12) but it did manage to get at least a point in 48% of the matches. In the end, there is enough here to make Nottingham's win very short and therefore the value is with Barnsley. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Drawin Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 All that's really happened, transfer-wise, with Reading, is they've lost Matt Mills and replaced him with Bongani Khumalo, on-loan from Spurs. It's another one I'm gonna skip, as Millwall have done well in pre-season and could surprise here, even without last seasons top scorer Morison, who's now at Norwich. I think you might be on the right lines with this one. I'm finding it hard to convince myself that Reading should be odds on. For a newly promoted side Millwall did reasonably well last season. Last season's opening day results: Reading 1 Scunthorpe 2 Bristol C 0 Millwall 3 Of course those results are irrelevant in the grand scheme of things as this is a new season, however if nothing they illustrate the unpredictability of opening day fixtures. Combining this uncertainty with the relative strengths of both sides I'd be inclined towards Millwall from a value perspective either outright or +1. I wouldn't be on Reading at odds on. Here's another interesting but meaningless stat on the face of it. Reading are hoping to win their opening league fixture for the first time in five seasons (BBC Sport website). I wonder if that means they're due a win? Nobody knows for certain ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorro Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 Welcome, nice post :ok I'm taking that bet too but had to bring attention to the price on Pinnacle: Reading are at 1.926 -0.5 asian handicap. at bet365 you can get Reading (without handicap, just plain win) @ 1.95. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
western skies Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 Bristol City v Ipswich - over 2.5 goals @ 2.08 with Betfair This fixture hasn't been a high scoring affair in recent seasons, but both sides have had issues in defence during pre-season. City abandoned a dalliance with zonal marking at set pieces after some particularly shocking defending against Torquay and Plymouth, and Keith Millen has been shuffling his back line ever since, admitting in the local press that he's still unsure about his best defensive line-up. Ipswich lost their best defender, Gareth McAuley, to West Brom over the summer and replaced him with the experienced Ivar Ingimarsson, who is likely to line up alongside the somewhat erratic Damien Delaney today. Paul Jewell seems likely to continue his policy of playing a winger (Carlos Edwards) at full back and whilst Ipswich looked a far better attacking side once Jewell replaced Keane last season, they also leaked goals at an alarming rate towards the end of the season. With nothing much catching my eye in the first round of fixtures, a small stakes punt on goals at a shade over evens seems a decent enough call. Good luck to everyone for the new season. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueHunter Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 Why do you keep bringing that meaningless stat up? :unsure I actually rate those 'meaningless' stats he brought up as the most useful info in the whole thread. I'd better rely on stats in the first round rather than building my prediction on pre season performance, news, expectations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FCP Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 Event Derby - Birmingham Selection Derby Strength 10/10 Date 06/08/2011 Bookmaker/Price William Hill @ 2.75 Reasoning To this game, Birmingham will fell lack of offensive power as the strikers Cameron Jerome (heel), Nikola Zigic (groin) and new signing Marlon King (knee) are all injured. But among these three, Conor Doyle, Gareth Roberts, Shaun Barker, Paul Green and Jake Buxton are also all injured. Birmingham was relegated last season and they lost his coach. They need a adaptation period to Championship. Derby signed good players on the summer and they are building a team but the last friendly was quite moralizing, defeating Aston Villa by 2-0. Ona predictable balanced game, the hosts have my support to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FCP Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 Event Southampton - Leeds Selection Southampton Strength 10/10 Date 06/08/2011 Bookmaker/Price William Hill @ 2.25 Reasoning Promoted this season to the Championship, Southampton will have to make their stadium a fortress. They were great at home last season and this can be a key factor to them this season. They are moralized and want to start well after this expected return. Leeds has problems on the attack, without Lucciano Bechio (hamstring) and Davide Somma (knee) both injured. On the last three games between the two teams, the home side won always 1-0 and Southampton, after end the last season with six consecutive wins, is looking to beat the club record of consecutive wins. This is another motivation for the hosts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG X Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Re: England: Championship Aug 5-7 I actually rate those 'meaningless' stats he brought up as the most useful info in the whole thread. I'd better rely on stats in the first round rather than building my prediction on pre season performance' date=' news, expectations.[/quote'] I will second that and it's certainly something I will look out for next year. Wish I had listened to him yesterday. :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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