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dak

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About dak

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 01/14/1965
  1. Certainly, France has the better roster. Yes, on paper they should be favourites. However, odds of about 1.90 are a bit short for a World Cup final. I am going to dismiss the fact that Croatia has more play time as a factor. At this level and given the stakes these type of considerations are probably insignificant. Both teams. I think, are going to be very careful and not risk much. This gives the the draw result, I believe, an increased likelihood. I think Croatia will win in extra time or in penalties. France has the better roster, but the momentum is with Croatia. In all three of the knockout matches, Croatia came from a goal down to qualify. This could be read as "when is their luck going to run out?", but I think it reflects focus, resolve and determination. The Bets: Draw: 5 units Draw / Draw (halftime / full time): 5 units 0-0 exact score: 1 unit 1-1 exact score: 1 Unit Win Croatia in extra time:5 units Win Croatia in penalties: 5 Units Croatia to win outright: 10 units Good luck to all in their bets.
  2. Great perspectives and advice, here! In the 16 knockout out round I am going for a strategic bet: Draw result for the following five matches: France - Argentina Uruguay - Portugal Croatia - Denmark Sweden - Switzerland Colombia - England The odds indicate a "balance" between the teams and, I think, that makes the draw a likely result. With odds between 2.90 to 3.30 the risk is worthwhile. The slight exceptions are the Croatia - Denmark and Colombia - England matches. Neither Croatia or England deserve, in my opinion, to be so strongly favoured against their respective opponents. Assuming odds of about 3.00 for each draw, one would need 2 draws to make profit. Actually, I would break even because I can't resist placing a 1 unit bet on the 5 match parlay. Overall, the draw bet is risky, but has value. I am going to go one step further and bet the 1-1 correct score for each match with odds between 6.00 to 7.00. Here, you need one winning bet to profit / break even (depending on whether you bet the 5 match 1-1 correct score parlay or not...). There are bookies that will return the bet in the event of a 0-0 draw. Good luck to all in their World Cup 2018 bets....
  3. Re: Belgium, Jupiler League - 4/5 Feb Lierse - Standard Liege: Standard Liege @ 1.90 (William Hill) 10/10 Lierse will face added fatigue given the recent cup match and will have its mind on the reverse fixture this Tuesday. Lierse isn't anything special. The hosts stand in 12th place and have a 3-6-2 home record. Liege is in 4th place and has 3/4 recent wins. Liege has only lost 1 match in the last 9 visits at Lierse. Given the circumstances the odds for Liege's win are fair and worth the risk.
  4. Re: England > Weekend > Championship > 4th/5th Feb Birmingham - Southampton: Birmingham @ 2.20 (Betfred) 10/10 This is a top of the table encounter between 4th place Birmingham (46 points) and 2nd place Southampton (51 points). The given odds are very good for the home win. Birmingham has an excellent home record (69.2%) and great form (5-2-1). Southampton's away record is average (4-4-5) and the form is below average (2-3-3). Given this, odds over evens are well worth the risk.
  5. Re: Quarter Final - Zambia v Sudan - Saturday 4th Feb Zambia - Sudan: Draw @ 3.50 (Skybet) 10/10 Zambia is probably correctly given as favourites but the odds of 1.72=1.83 don't really reflect how difficult the match will be. This is a knock-out quarter final match. Sudan has qualified against expectations and will be coming into this match with a level of confidence. Zambia probably has a better quality roster but its results in the group stage (2-1 win against Senegal, 2-2 draw against Libya and 1-0 win against Eq. Guinea)didn't necessarily indicate anything spectacular. I believe both teams will be very careful given the knock-out aspect of the quarter final. The game should be very tight which increases the chances of the draw. Zambia, as the better team, may well just qualify but I think they may need extra time to do it.
  6. Re: Greek 1st league 2011-2012 Ergotelis - OFI: Draw @ 3.10 (William Hill) 10/10 This is a derby match between teams that hail from the island of Crete. The teams are quite similar in quality despite OFI's better table standing (7th; 29 points) compared to Ergotelis' (10th; 22 points). Ergotelis' sound home record (5-3-2) is good enough to get a point against OFI's away record (3-3-4) and given the derby dynamics of the match I believe the draw has good chances here. Kerkyra - PAS Giannina: Draw @ 3.00 (William Hill) 10/10 This is a relegation battle between 14th place Kerkyra (12 points) and 13th place Giannina (14 points). Giannina has the 2nd worst away record (0-1-7) and scores an average of 0.75 goals in away matches so it is difficult to see them winning. An away draw would be a good result against a direct relegation rival. Kerkyra has the 3rd worst home record (2-2-4) and scores an average of only 0.87 goals at home. I suspect a very tight stalemate of 0-0 or 1-1. The draw is the value bet in this encounter.
  7. Re: Stoke v Sunderland > Sat 4th Feb Stoke - Sunderland: Draw @ 3.32 (Titanbet) 10/10 The teams are quite similar in performance and quality and the draws seems very likely in this encounter. Stoke is 9th place and Sunderland is in 8th place with both teams having 30 points. Sunderland has better form in the last 8 matches (5-1-2) compared to Stoke (2-3-3) but Stoke's home record, albeit about average (4-4-3) is good enough to get a draw against Sunderland which has a slightly below average away record (3-2-6). Both teams should be happy with a draw and I believe the result is the value bet in this encounter.
  8. Re: Bundesliga II - 3-6 February Hertha Berlin - Hannover: Draw @ 3.43 (Titanbet) 10/10 Both teams will seek maximum points for different reasons. Hertha is in 15th place and would like to distance itself from the relegation line while Hannover is in 7th place and would like to get into the top 6 places which lead to European cup competition. However, neither the form or the rsepective home/away performance of either team recommends a win. Hertha is 0-4-4 in the last 8 matches and has the worst home record (2-3-4). Hannover is has an abundance of draws in the last 8 matches (1-6-1) and a weak 1-4-4 away record. Both teams have a propensity towards the draw overall. Hertha has 8 draws in 19 matches and Hannover has 9 draws in 19 matches. I think the draw is the value bet in this encounter.
  9. Re: Serie A 31.1. - 2.2 Lazio - Milan: Draw @ 3.30 (Ladbrokes) 10/10 Milan is correctly favourite in this encounter, but at 2.20-2.30 it is a bit short. Lazio is the 4th best team in the league and has only lost twice at home (4-4-2 home record). I think Lazio will be careful after the win against Chievo so as not to throw away all points in this match and will probably keep the match tight. In the last 6 H2H matches there have been 4 draws and 2 wins for Milan. Milan is the better team but it will not be as easy as the odds reflect and in the end a draw can be considered a good result against a top 5 team like Lazio. The draw will also be a good result for Lazio. Cagliari - Roma: Draw @ 3.20 (Ladbrokes) 10/10 Cagliari has 60% draws in their home matches (2-6-2 home record). The hosts have started 2012 in a positive way with a 1-2-1 record with the loss coming at Milan. Roma is probably the better team but they drop points in their away matches 60% of the time (4-1-4 record). Furthermore, Roma has a poor H2H record in the last 6 encounters with the results favouring Cagliari (2-3-1). In the end, Cagliari's propensity towards the draw and Roma's less than good history at Cagliari lead me to see the draw as a good bet.
  10. Re: Fulham v West Brom > 1 Feb Fulham - West Bromwich Albion: Draw @ 3.60 (Totesport) 10/10 The 1.80ish the odds for Fulham's win are too short. With a 5-3-3 home record they are essentially average at home. WBA is the 6th best away team (5-2-4) and has won 3 out of 4 recent away matches. The the teams are in 14th and 15th place respectively with 26 and 25 points and are very similar in quality. This appears to be a very balanced encounter. In September 2011 the teams played to a 0-0 draw.
  11. Re: Aston Villa v QPR > 1 Feb Aston Villa - QPR: Draw @ 3.50 (Totesport) 10/10 Aston Villa should be favourites but with a 3-3-5 home record the 1.80ish odds are a bit too short. At the same time QPR's away record (3-1-7) doesn't inspire much confidence in backing the away win. QPR's form in the last 8 matches has been poor (1-1-6), but in each of the 6 defeats they lost by a single goal and have inproved their overall performance. I think QPR will play for the draw and given Villa's less than certain home performance I think they can get it.
  12. Re: Serie A 31.1. - 2.2 Atalanta - Genoa: Draw @ 3.20 (Ladbrokes) 10/10 Atalanta is favourited here at 2.30-2.40 which is probably fair. However, the home record of 4-4-2 and specifically the 4 draws make me uneasy about backing them at the given odds. Furthermore, Atalanta will miss their top scorer, Denis, who has scored 12/24 goals this season. Hence, Atalanta may have some difficulty in scoring and they may just adopt a more defensive approach. They don't want to lose after winning at Cesena and breaking a streak of three defeats. Genoa is okay (9th place) but the away record is poor (2-1-7) and the defense is poor (25 goals conceded in 10 matches). I feel Genoa may try and be careful in defense and with Atalanta's offense compromised we may get a tight match which increases the chances of the draw. The recent 4 H2H favours Genoa (2-2-0) but there have been 2 draws. It seems that the draw is a valuable bet given the circumstances.
  13. Re: England/Scotland > Midweek L1 & All Cups - Jan 17/18 Thanks for the remark babypunter. For your information I almost always place a 10/10 stake on my bets. Surely you have heard of level stakes betting....It has nothing to do with showing off....:ok
  14. Re: Copa del Rey Espanyol - Mirandes: Draw @ 4.50 (Unibet) 10/10 This is a risky bet, no doubt, but given the fact that this a 2 match qualification I think it worth the risk. Clearly, Espanyol is the better team and is in sound condition in La Liga. However, Mirandes has been able to progress thus far against La Liga teams and will certainly have confidence going into this match. In Segunda, Mirandes is has a good away record (5-6-0) with a 9:3 goals differential and bases its success on its defense. I can see Mirandes playing very defensively and trying to get the draw. Espanyol isn't the most prolific scoring team with 18 goals in 18 matches. I wouldn't be too surprised by a 0-0 draw in this match. The odds are worth the risk, I think.