MillionDollarMan Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Re: Copa America > Tuesday 12th July What you thought Chile vs Peru was the only good bet I had today? Think again. Uruguay vs Mexico looks like gold as well. Uruguay HAVE TO WIN to make it to the next round. Plain and simple. No other option for the Uruguayans. This is a life or death situation for them. You think the World Cup Semifinalists aren't going to be able to make it past this Mexico? I know they will. What I saw from Mexico against Chile and again Mexico against Peru was that they can only compete with Bolivia in this Copa America. Compete on who is the worst team of the competition. Mexico got lucky against Chile, they scored a lucky goal and Chile was woeful in front of goal, that's why they lost only by one goal. Against Peru we saw more of the same. Almost nothing going forward from Mexico and they were lucky only to concede one goal. Today they almost have nothing to play for and Uruguay have everything to play for. Uruguay clean sheet is very likely and at 1.72 seems like a good bet. Uruguay should cruise this and we should make some easy money here. Two bets: Uruguay clean sheet @ 1.72 bet365 Uruguay +1,1.5 @ 1.78 bet365 (sorry this game is today for me, wrong thread!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexc Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Re: Copa America > Tuesday 12th July Chile AH + 0.5 and Mexico AH + 1.5 double @ 1.97 (Bet365) Goal.com believes both Chile and Peru are resting key players, including Sanchez, Vargas and Guerrero: http://www.goal.com/en/match/54130/chile-vs-peru/preview I think this will probably end in a draw, but if there was gonna be a winner I'd back Chile. They've been impressive so far, and the players Goal suggests will come in are good players, that should keep the momentum going. Peru also have done very well, but without Vargas and Guerrero I see them posing minimal attacking threat to the Chileans. Mexico's price is fine @ 1.70, so I'm getting Chile @ 1.27, which is decent. Mexico reasoning on the Tuesday thread :) As long as Chile are OK, I'm gonna lay-off on this one. Mexico at 1.85 now terrifies me :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surfer rosa Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Re: Copa America > Tuesday 12th July MillionDollar just to say the this match doesnt mean much you have to look into the history a bit Peru and Chile have a rivalry that dates back from the War of the Pacific. Previously, the two nations had been on friendly terms sharing mutual alliances during the South American wars of independence and in the Chincha Islands War. Territorial, maritime, and cultural disputes have fueled tensions since the ending of the War of the Pacific. These historical feuds and lingering bitterness have led to a large football rivalry between both nations. ......................................... if Chile top the group they get a 1/4 final game against 2nd in group B which may well be Brazil but the game will be played in San Juan which is near the Chile border (finish 2nd and its the other side of Argentina and most likely to be against them...and will be now) if they draw ( they play first) and Uruguay win by 2 goals or more they will finish 2nd.........all points to a tough game but have read that Peru might rest players but translation wasn't to clear on that and would not put to much trust in that as of the above statement add to this that Peru have won 17 out of 135 away competitive games (home is high above sea level) and they have not beat Chile outside of Peru for 16 games I doubt this will be a carve up of the draw that everyone thinks... I've backed Chile at 1.81 and hoping for an open attacking game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batig0l Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Re: Copa America > Tuesday 12th July The underlying factor has to be that Peru are an extremely brilliant defensive outfit, under 'The Professor' coach and therefore under 2.5 goals is a good bet. I agree with the previous poster that this isn't necessarily a draw written all over it. I think it is worth betting on a half time draw, but maybe Chile can win over 90 minutes. Subs in the second half could change the game after all. So take under 2.5's and half time draw, in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan325 Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Re: Copa America > Tuesday 12th July What you thought Chile vs Peru was the only good bet I had today? Think again. Uruguay vs Mexico looks like gold as well. Uruguay HAVE TO WIN to make it to the next round. Plain and simple. No other option for the Uruguayans. This is a life or death situation for them. You think the World Cup Semifinalists aren't going to be able to make it past this Mexico? I know they will. What I saw from Mexico against Chile and again Mexico against Peru was that they can only compete with Bolivia in this Copa America. Compete on who is the worst team of the competition. Mexico got lucky against Chile, they scored a lucky goal and Chile was woeful in front of goal, that's why they lost only by one goal. Against Peru we saw more of the same. Almost nothing going forward from Mexico and they were lucky only to concede one goal. Today they almost have nothing to play for and Uruguay have everything to play for. Uruguay clean sheet is very likely and at 1.72 seems like a good bet. Uruguay should cruise this and we should make some easy money here. Two bets: Uruguay clean sheet @ 1.72 bet365 Uruguay +1,1.5 @ 1.78 bet365 (sorry this game is today for me, wrong thread!) I will go along with that (although they don't need to win a draw will do) Have backed under 2.5 goals for Peru-Chile and I think im gonna go with Uruguay clean sheet. Might back Abel Hernandez to score anytime 11/5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BookiesNightmare Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Re: Copa America > Tuesday 12th July MillionDollarman. So unlucky buddy i thought u had it, Chile scored in 92nd min. :cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delahicka Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Re: Copa America > Tuesday 12th July The underlying factor has to be that Peru are an extremely brilliant defensive outfit, under 'The Professor' coach and therefore under 2.5 goals is a good bet. I agree with the previous poster that this isn't necessarily a draw written all over it. I think it is worth betting on a half time draw, but maybe Chile can win over 90 minutes. Subs in the second half could change the game after all. So take under 2.5's and half time draw, in my opinion. Nice calls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delahicka Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Re: Copa America > Tuesday 12th July Chile vs Peru is a great match for us punters. Chile will be without Alexis, Isla, Mati Fernandes, Bravo, Gary Medel, Pablo Contreras and Vidal for this match. Valdivia will be on the bench. Chile's best players will not play this match. Meanwhile Peru will be without Vargas, Acasiete and Guerrero as well as the goalkeeper. This game doesn't mean much for both teams, neither team will want to lose though, but a draw should leave both teams happy. Especially Peru. Games between Chile and Peru tend to get rough, but this game is going to be played at a low intensity and neither team will want to risk injuries etc. So expect a clean match. In Peru's last 9 games none have had more than 2 goals. 3 of those have ended 0-0. Chile this Copa America has only gone over 2 goals one time out of three and in their last 8 games have only gone over 2 goals twice! Surprised? Probably. I have a number of bets for this match. Here they are: Peru +1 @ 1.8 bet365 Under 2, 2.5 goals @ 2.0 bet365 Half time result = Draw @ 2.2 bet365 Full time result = Draw @ 3.6 bet365 Bookings = Less than 5 bookings @ 1.90 bet365 Peru vs Chile = 0-0 @ 9 bet365 You can thank me later! Super unlucky with 3 of these calls. A goal in injury time to spoil them. Unlucky mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batig0l Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Re: Copa America > Tuesday 12th July Nice calls Thanks. I only went for the half time draw, thanks to MillionDollarMan's tip. So thanks should go to him. I used betfair's feature for 0-0 correct score, and sold on it (laid) @ the 80th min. I put 66 euro on Chile to win when Sanchez had his free kick with 5 mins to go... but then pulled out completely a minute later. Odds were 3/1! Oh well! ----------------------------------------- Now guys, how about Uruguay and the qualification permutations. Do you think they'll go out and play for a draw, to avoid the battle of the Rio Plata (Argentina), in order to face either Venezuela/Paraguay/Ecuador/Brazil? Or will they go out to prove themselves? This whole factor of who they will play adds something interesting to how the game will turn out I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surfer rosa Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Re: Copa America > Tuesday 12th July The underlying factor has to be that Peru are an extremely brilliant defensive outfit, under 'The Professor' coach and therefore under 2.5 goals is a good bet. I agree with the previous poster that this isn't necessarily a draw written all over it. I think it is worth betting on a half time draw, but maybe Chile can win over 90 minutes. Subs in the second half could change the game after all. So take under 2.5's and half time draw, in my opinion. well picked :nana layed 0-0 and just danced :cow around the room gone for both teams to score "no" in the Uruguay game as will think they will look at it as a 1-0 win for each will see them go to the 1/4's and 0-0 will see Uruguay though:drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batig0l Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Re: Copa America > Tuesday 12th July well picked :nana layed 0-0 and just danced :cow around the room What did you lay at!!? What odds? Well done to you! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batig0l Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Re: Copa America > Tuesday 12th July The more I think about it.... the more a draw seems madness as a chosen option for Uruguay. Mexico can qualify if they win, so Uruguay will surely want to go ahead early in this game and boss it as much as possible from the off. It just is too hard to call which Uruguay will come out tonight. They need to prove they are good enough, after much hype built up after their world cup performance. So in many ways, this is a big game for Uruguay, as it was for Argentina last night. Let's not forget that this Mexico team is very poor. Arguably the poorest of the tournament. According to conmebol 'datafactory' they are playing 6 defenders tonight! Not sure if that is reliable or not, but they haven't shown any real ability to attack in this tournament, bar a completely against the run of play goal against Chile. So... I think Uruguay will go out with the intention to score early, and therefore I think Uruguay will win the first half. I think if any of you are interested in in-play betting, expect an early Uruguay goal, and then put money on under 3.5 goals. Uruguay could romp home here if they score early. I myself will put a bet on under 2.5 goals, and should there be an early Uruguay lead, perhaps cover it with an under 3.5 goals bet. This Copa America has proven that goals are hard to come by! Edit: Finally, I see MillionDollarMan recommends a Uruguay clean sheet. I must say this is also tempting! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Re: Copa America > Tuesday 12th July Chile - Peru draw @ 3.81 :( Injury time own goal by Peru wins it for Chile Uruguay -1.5 @ 2.21 :( Uruguay hit the woodwork twice which could have given them the second goal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillionDollarMan Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Re: Copa America > Tuesday 12th July Peru +1 @ 1.8 bet365 = PUSH Under 2, 2.5 goals @ 2.0 bet365 = WON Half time result = Draw @ 2.2 bet365 = WON Full time result = Draw @ 3.6 bet365 = LOST Last minute own goal denied me this one, Chile was better, but never really looked dangerous. Should have been a draw, but this is football. Bookings = Less than 5 bookings @ 1.90 bet365 = LOST Game was clean until that foul which caused a fight and two red cards. Peru vs Chile = 0-0 @ 9 bet365 = LOST you have to consider yourself unlucky when you lose by a last minute own goal. Nothing I could do. Should have ended 0-0 Uruguay clean sheet @ 1.72 bet365 = WON Uruguay +1,1.5 @ 1.78 bet365 = PUSH Shame about the last minute goal Tonight's results: WON: 3 LOST: 3 PUSH: 2 It should have been a million dollar night, but we were denied by a last minute goal, which I still can't believe. I'm used to it though, this is football and it happens all the time. Hopefully tomorrow we aren't handed anymore of these last minute unfortunate surprises. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Re: Copa America > Tuesday 12th July Nice picks MillionDollarMan - a very good evening for you. You were indeed very unfortunate with the last minute goal, but you can't forget that both Chile and Peru missed absolute sitters in front of goal in the first half. Swings and roundabouts as they say. Congrats again on a good read. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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