Tennis - 11-17 July

[Atko]

Another busy week on the tennis front. Let's have a look at the women first. Two international events take place in Europe on clay. We've got Palermo, where Kaia Kanepi looks to defend her crown. She's the top seed, and the girl she beat in last year's final, Flavia Pennetta, is also in attendance. Usual glut of Italians and European clay courters are in attendance. The other event is in the Austrian town of Bad Gastien, where Julia Goerges heads the line-up. For the men, it's also a clay-fest, with a couple of 250s to get our teeth into it. Bastad is a mightily popular event with the guys and it's a pretty classy field for a 250, with Robin Soderling, Nicolas Almagro, Tomas Berdych and David Ferrer all playing. Stuttgart is headed up by Gael Monfils and Jurgen Melzer in a field that looks fiercely competitive. Your Challengers this week are in Bogota (clay), Sopot (clay), Aptos (hard) and Granby (hard). Good luck :ok

[cristianoronaldo]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July 1. Brown to beat Desnieres de Veigy / 1.85 in Bwin Brown is close to be TOP100 again, but if want do it, must make nice result in main draw here.. Brown in 2009 played against de Veigy, at the Samarkand Challanger on clay surface, won in two sets. de Veigy is not TOP250 player, at this moment is 268! Lucky draw in first two matches, two players with worse position than TOP900. On the serve not look great. Brown is big server, at Bastad courts can play good tennis. Brown go to the MD in Bastad! 2. Sorensen to beat Donskoy / 3.55 in Bwin Great odds on Louk Sorensen. Sorensen is Irish, but have residence in Stuttgart and play on this courts many times, talking very good in Germany language. Donskoy is the biggest seed in Q in this moment, not must win this match - if one player from main draw out from tournament. In Q don't play great, lost set in first round. Sorensen play great match against Hernych(nr6) and won 6-2, 6-2. 3.Marti to beat Veic / 2.55 in Bwin Veic - 195 on the world, seed nr 4 in Q for the main draw, against Marti, 221 on the world, seed nr 5. Look like close match.. Both are good servers, but Javier Marti advantage is first serve % in courts, always on the very good level, over 70%. Veic sometimes have under 50%. Marti is dangerous returner. Marti is better player from the baseline and this is next advantage. Maybe Veic made better results in this season, but Marti is very good, young clay player from Spain. With this odds I must play it. 4.Montanes to beat Simon / 2.65 in Gamebookers My bet in this match is Albert Montanes from Spain. Monday, first rounds, not too much matches to play, but this game is really good, my reasons for it: - Montanes in this year play against Simon, bookies giving 2.00 for Albert win, today 2.65, why? - Montanes defending title from last year!!!! Champion from 2010 and lose in first round? - Montanes have very good balance at the Germany courts - Simon in last year lost in second round and have bad balance at Germany courts 5.Hofmanova +1.5 sets against Benesova / 3.04 in 188bet Few reasons for this bet: - Odds, Hofmanova can make one set here. - Hofmanova is young, telented girl, 91' - Hofmanova play at home, supports give fire for this girl - Benesova in last year here lost in first round 0:2 - Benesova in last weekend lost in first round in Basad, won only 2 games.. Hofmanova can make upset in this game.

[WinningTipster]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July Hi guys, 1 pick for the WTA Bad Gastein match today: HRADECKA TO DEFEAT ZAHLAVOVA BY 2:0 SETS @ 1.72 on bet365 Hradecka is both consistent and powerful player with good game for clay. Zahlavova is completely out of form winning just 1 out of her last 10 matches.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July A few outright bets to get me started this week ... Stuttgart outright - Gael Monfils to win @ 4.75 with Pinnacle 1pt - Jurgen Melzer to win @ 7.00 with Pinnacle 1pt Stuttgart is undoubtedly a tricky little event to get a handle on, but I feel the winner will come out of the top two seeds. Monfils got to the final last year and comes into this event fresh from leading to France to Davis Cup glory in ... Germany. He's a very dangerous player to bet with but when motivated, he's also an extremely dangerous player on court for his opponents. Hard to see him coming here without a spring in his step, and in my opinion, he's got a decent run to the final. My route is Hanescu-Zverev-Mayer-Youzhny, which is not easy. That, however, is a good thing for Monfils. He often toils against weaker players due to his concentration issues but he'll have to be on the money to beat Mayer and Youzhny. Clay is one of his best surfaces, and as he made the final here last year, there should be enough desire to protect those points. I feel he's got a very good chance of winning here. By the same admission, I expect Melzer to offer up a very good shot at the title too. The Austrian has not been in the same form as last year but I feel he's still a very dangerous man on the clay. His projected route is Giraldo-Kamke-Kubot-Simon/Davydenko, and I feel he has the better of all those opponents on this surface. Giraldo is better on a hard court and Kamke's just back from Newport. Kubot is a tough man to get a handle on but Melzer has more in his locker, and I'd fancy the Austrian over either Davydenko or Simon on this surface. Melzer's ranking has slipped a little but there's no doubting his quality, and I'd expect him to put up a bold show in these conditions at a decent price. Bastad outright - Robin Soderling to win @ 3.35 with Pinnacle 2pts - Nicolas Almagro to win @ 5.50 with Pinnacle 1pt Bastad is known as a "party town" event and there is probably an element of uncertainty about a lot of the more cavalier players. In saying that, I'd still expect the top players to be at the business end of the tournament. Soderling is the top seed and I expect him to avenge his loss in the final last year to Almagro, the other man I expect to be in the mix. Soderling's got a projected route of Andreev-Starace-Berdych to the final. I've seen easier routes but I'd be surprised, on home soil on a surface he likes, if he couldn't dispose of all of these. Almagro's in the bottom half and will probably have to oust Ferrer to get to the final (he's got a smooth route before that) but with Ferrer coming back from the US on Davis Cup duty, there could be an element of fatigue involved for him. Almagro loves it here and has brilliant game when it all clicks. He should go close at nice odds. :hope

[crack]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July

Sport	Tennis
Event	Albert Montanes - Gilles Simon
Selection	Gilles Simon
Strength	1/10
Date	11/07/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.56
Reasoning	Stuttgart ATP (GER) - clay, round of 32. Gilles Simon is my favorite in this match. Simon's favourite surface is hardcourt but on clay he plays very good to - he won three ATP titles on this surface. Albert Montanes is without big shape - Andreas Seppi defeated him in the first round at Wimbledon. Montanes's favourite surface is clay but he is playing very weakly this year. Gilles Simon leads 3-1 in head-to-head series. The last match they played on clay in Monte Carlo and Gilles won very easy 6-3 6-4. The match lasted 93 minutes. Simon likes play against Montanes on clay because they played 4 matches on this surface and Simon won three matches.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - Radek Stepanek
Selection	Radek Stepanek
Strength	1/10
Date	11/07/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.65
Reasoning	Stuttgart ATP (GER) - clay, round of 32 Radek Stepanek should win this match. He likes play on clay. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez can play very good on this surface too but he is without big shape. Radek Stepanek is difficult opponent because he plays style serve&volley. Radek leads 1-0 in head-to-head series. They played on clay in Barcelona in 2009 and Stepanek won after three sets 6-4 2-6 6-4. The match was very close and lasted 125 minutes. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez has nice service, he plays one-handed backhand. I give more chances for Stepanek.

[Mirage]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July It looks like quite a trappy opening day to me in the ATP events. I'm tempted to fade Simon but not at the prices offered. Will just watch the results so good luck to those that play :hope

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July Two plays for me today ... Stuttgart R1: Sergiy Stakhovsky v Jaroslav Pospisil - Sergiy Stakhovsky -4 games AH @ 2.06 with Pinnacle 6pts The line is about right for me in this tie but I'm surprised to see the price so high. Pospisil is a dirt rat but not a particularly good one, and he has a suspect attitude. Saw him tank against Hanescu at Wimbledon and although I expect a better showing here, I don't think he's got enough to trouble Stakhovsky. The Ukrainian has improved his clay game a great deal - he moves better and uses a better variety of shot to splay his opponent round the court. He also has the stronger serve, which I feel could be crucial in this match. Pospisil is quite a weak server and he will give chances to Stakhovsky. The Ukrainian posted decent results in spring clay swing and beat some accomplished players on this surface. He should be fresh after a few weeks off after Wimbledon and certainly has the tools to down Pospisil by a few games. Stuttgart R1: Albert Montanes v Gilles Simon - Albert Montanes +3 games AH @ 1.901 with Pinnacle 5pts I think it's pretty generous offering up Montanes on the plus. The Spaniard won this event last year and considering the fairly average year he's had, I wouldn't be surprised to see him put in a renewed effort to save a few ranking points. He lost to Simon earlier in the year on clay so there is a concern that he can beat him, but I do envisage an exceptionally close tie. Simon's a better player than Montanes on every surface except the red brick. He struggles to hit winners on clay because he doesn't play with a great deal of power, and will rely on Montanes not hitting through him. The Spaniard's movement and feel is much better on clay, and he evidently likes conditions in Stuttgart. He should put up a decent fight. Overs was a consideration too but was expecting no handicap whatsoever here so pleased to take a hit on the plus. Montanes can win this but it's more likely to be a close-run match that could go either way - with that in mind, I'm happy to side with Montanes with some games in hand. :hope

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July

Sport	Tennis
Event	Hradecka v Zahlavova
Selection	Zahlavova
Strength	10/10
Date	11/07/2011
Bookmaker/Price	>Bet365 @ 5.00
Reasoning	I think this is worth a risk. It's WTA on clay, and anything can happen! Zahlavova is having a bad run, but I've always thought she was a decent player and can turn it around. A very heavy loss to A Bondarenko is a worry but still I'll take the risk. Hradecka is higher ranked but I don't think she's much better than Zahlavova, and also she lost as a very big favourite first round last week.

[pretender.]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July

Good information, Sorry to be a "newbie" But when Strength 10/10? Does that mean that it's very strong chance of happening? :ok

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July Hi, for me it's just a stake for the sports-punter.com competition. I always tend to stake the maximum that they allow. For me it should be considered as level stakes. I know other people on the forum use it as a strength rating.

[pretender.]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July Cheers Cramer. I see now. :notworthy

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July

Sport	Tennis
Event	Hradecka v Zahlavova
Selection	Zahlavova
Strength	10/10
Date	11/07/2011
Bookmaker/Price	>Bet365 @ 5.00
Reasoning	I think this is worth a risk. It's WTA on clay, and anything can happen! Zahlavova is having a bad run, but I've always thought she was a decent player and can turn it around. A very heavy loss to A Bondarenko is a worry but still I'll take the risk. Hradecka is higher ranked but I don't think she's much better than Zahlavova, and also she lost as a very big favourite first round last week.

Top shout Cramer :ok

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July Surprise, surprise... No WTA for me tomorrow :rollin Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo > Andrey Golubev. 1.79 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Golubev badly needs a break but he can not afford one. He has to defend massive 500 points from Hamburg of last year and I really can not imagine him doing that. He's on an incredible 15 match losing streak and has not won since March in Indian Wells. Golubev has won just 4 matches all year long. He just can not buy a win. Hidalgo is a very solid player on clay and should be able to make the most of his opportunity against out of form and lacking motivation player. Not much of a form for Hidalgo either but fancy him to get a W here. He's crushed Golubev 6-3, 6-2 in a Challenger event few years ago on clay in Italy and I would not bet against the Spaniard to get another win. Christian Lindell vs Pere Riba-Madrid. Under 20.5 games. 1.78 @ Bwin (6/10) This one looks like a w.o. for Riba. The Spaniard plays only on clay whilst Lindell should not be. This is not his level but being Swedish he got into the main draw. He has been hammered by all sorts of crap players lately. Even Kukushkin beat him 6-0, 6-1 on clay recently and Riba should have a comfortable win as well. Unders or handicap - whichever you prefer. Lukasz Kubot -3 vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver. 1.93 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Traver has been in very disappointg form this year. He can play a bit of tennis on clay but lacking confidence will do no goof to him. Kubot on the other hand sky high on condidence, serves very well and with his net play skills have to feel good about his chances of progressing past round 1. This bet more like against Traver than backing Kubot. Traver lost his last match 4-6, 1-6 against Alessandro Gianessi of all people. That's just not serious enough. Kubot by 3 or more is my pick. Victor Hanescu +4.5 vs Gael Monfils. 1.90 @ Bwin. (5/10) Not a fan of Hanescu because he is really pathetic player but when you play guy like Monfils there's always a chance that Monfils will make life very hard for himself. He's coming here on the back of a triumphant weekend with Davis cup team. Surely he won't be focused 100%. Unless Hanescu throws this one away, it should be a closer contest than many might think. 4.5 games spread in best of three sets match is what I would take against Monfils more less anytime. Hanescu can serve and he definitely will get some gifts on return. Monfils has been able to cover this handicap only in 1 of their 4 H2H matches and that was in the very first match massive six years ago in Sopot. Mikhail Youzhny vs Philipp Petzschner. Over 22 games. 1.86 @ Pinnacle (5/10) This has natural looks of a three set match or a very close two-setter. Youzhny in very poor form this year and should not be trusted especially in match like this - playing against German player in Germany. They have played three times before and only once the match has ended in two sets. Youzhny one that one, but not without a trouble - 7-5, 7-6 last year also on clay in Munchen. 22 games for toals looks a bit weird here as I think it should have been at least 22.5 games so having 22 without any doubts.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July Five bets for me in this post - a couple of them are played on Wednesday. Could be more depending if markets shift and the matches with qualifiers throw up anything. Stuttgart R1: Santiago Giraldo v Jurgen Melzer - Jurgen Melzer -3.5 games @ 1.971 with Pinnacle 7pts Very happy to take Melzer on the handicap against the Colombian. Neither man comes here in tremendous form but I think the key in this one is the H2H record. Melzer has won both their previous meetings, both last year on an outdoor hard court, which is Giraldo's favoured surface. Giraldo does struggle with lefties as the backhand is his weaker wing, and I can see the Austrian picking on it again. Melzer's best results have come on the clay in his career - admittedly he is a temperamental player but so is Giraldo, who hasn't franked his good form of last year. He can be very erratic off the deck and on serve. I feel Melzer could take control of this match and make life awkward for Giraldo. He's covered this line on both occasions that they've met, and it wouldn't surprise me if he does so for a third time. Stuttgart R1: Mikhail Youzhny v Philipp Petzschner - Over 22 games AH @ 1.862 with Pinnacle 6pts Like Psycho I am very surprised to see this line set so low. Two talented players with differing styles clash here and it would appear to have the feel of an overs match. I think every one of their four meetings, including one this year, has gone over the line. Both men are inconsistent and often find it tough to wrest control of a match for long periods. I do fancy Youzhny to go fairly deep in this tournament but this will be a real test of his character. Petzschner in Germany is not an easy man to beat, he often saves his best tennis for this sort of event, and I can see both men running it very close. 22 games certainly does seem a little low considering the history these two have. Bastad R1: Carlos Berlocq v Juan Monaco - Juan Monaco -3.5 games @ 1.84 with Pinnacle 6pts Should be a good match this between two Argentines, but ultimately I expect Monaco to prevail. He usually plays well in Bastad and showed glimpses of the Monaco we all know exists at Wimbledon and then at the Davis Cup last weekend. He's got more in his groundstroke locker than Berlocq, who is a very streaky player. He hits the ball with a lot of top spin but for a big guy, he doesn't play with an awful lot of power, and I can't see him being able to out-hit Monaco. He won a Challenger event in Turin two weeks ago and that should stand him in good stead, but I fancy Monaco to kick on now that he's fully fit. His year has been truncated by injuries and as a result, his ranking has dropped. He needs the points and having beaten Berlocq before, I'd expect him to have the better of his compatriot. Definite class difference between the two, and I feel Monaco will be able to assert in this one. Bastad R1: Teimuraz Gabashvili v Michael Yani - Teimuraz Gabashvili -4 games AH @ 1.885 with Pinnacle 6pts Extremely surprised to see Yani in Sweden this week. He played in Newport on Saturday afternoon and getting over here would have involved a very quick turnaround. I can't imagine he will have had much time to adapt to the conditions here, which are very different from the grass in America. I don't trust Gabashvili a whole lot either but this is a very nice R1 tie for him. He's got the power to hit through Yani and clay is by far and away his best surface. Obviously there is a slight concern that the Russian's head might not be screwed on but if it is, he should be able to ease past a man who has got to deal with a surface change and a time-zone change. Got to fancy Gabashvili to take this one with something to spare. Stuttgart R1: Andrey Golubev v Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo - Andrey Golubev @ 2.08 with Pinnacle 4pts Fit a pacemaker if you decide to follow this one, because it'll more than likely be car crash tennis. I've avoided Golubev like the plague recently for so many different reasons - just take it from me that he is one of the most unreliable and dodgy players on tour - but this time, I'm going to back him. He's got a very winnable tie in this tournament. Ramirez Hidalgo is a very average player. He may have beaten Cilic at Roland Garros but that result proves that even a blind squirrel can find a nut every once in a while. He's a sparrer with no real weapons and I certainly feel he will give Golubev chances. The Kazakh is on a dire run, but he does have ability within himself. He won Hamburg on clay and can certainly play on this surface. The guys he has lost to recently are several levels above Ramirez Hidalgo - Monaco, Garcia-Lopez, Gimeno-Traver, Soderling, Bellucci, Fish, Mayer and Stepanek. This ought to be easier for him. Really should probably avoid getting involved in this one but it's a match Golubev can win, and I'd like to be there when he eventually gets a big fat 'W' next to his name. :hope

[Mirage]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July Victor Hanescu vs Gael Monfils 2pts V. Hanescu (+ 4 games) to beat G. Monfils AH - 1.94 with Pinnacle I think this is worth a small stake with the added bonus that there could be a push, rather than if it was at -3.5 at the same odds. Monfils has the superior record when it comes to the head to head (3-1) but if this line was to be put in those games we would have won twice and another would have been a push. There is no doubt that there is a chance Monfils could blow Hanescu away as he is more than capable on this surface but he has had a bit of trouble against big servers like Haase and Karlovic on clay and did struggle against 'lesser' players at Roland Garros where he was expected to win much easier. There is also a chance that Hanescu could win aswell, i am by no means writing that off. Hanescu has had an up and down year on this surface but if his first serve percentage is up here we have a great chance of him covering the line. This is the first match on clay for both player post-Wimbledon so i am hoping that Monfils won't be at his best straight away, like in this very same tournament last year. The fact he was blown off court by Kubot in London is encouraging for Hanescu and that, plus the reasons mentioned in the previous paragraph, is enough to convince me to get involved with a low stake.

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July

Sport	Tennis
Event	Chardy v Kamke
Selection	Chardy
Strength	10/10
Date	12/07/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 1.61
Reasoning	I like Chardy in this match. Kamke is playing a weird schedule, playing on clay in Germany 2 weeks ago, on grass in Newport last week making semis and playing Saturday, then back to Germany for the clay here. That's not ideal and might be a factor in this match. I like Chardy, although he often disappoints. He won this tournament in 2009 (lost R1 last year) so should have some good memories. He's got enough to take Kamke on any clay court, and with a few situational factors in his favour I'll take him at this price.

[cristianoronaldo]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July 1. Chardy to beat Kamke 2:0 / 2.45 in 188bet Chardy make win in two sets! Chardy is higher in ATP rank, spend last days in Stuttgart, make good preparation for this tournament and wait for good run. In 2009 made title in this tournament, in last season lost in first round. Kamke never play here in main draw, but the biggest reason to play on Chardy is.. Kamke played in saturday semifinal against Isner on grass surface in USA, in Newport. Surface transition, tired, without court practise etc. Easy game for Jeremy 2. Llagostera Vives to beat 2:0 Bondarenko / 2.85 in 288bet Llagostera Vives is better player in this moment for me and win this match. Llagostera Vives play more clay tournaments in last months, have more stable form and not making too much errors from the baseline. In this weekend defending many points for the ranking, motivation must be high. Bondarenko not have points to defend, yesterday I see this girl in doubles match against two other Spain players and looked bad. I see 2 sets for Nuria 3. Zahlavova-Strycova to beat 2:0 Navarro / 2.65 in 188bet Very nice odds, great to play. In last weekend I watched all Zahlavova-Strycova matches in Budapest and looked impressive. Not too much unforced errors, confident from baseline, nice serve and very good return. Made SF, is in form, can beat Spanish girl. Navarro in last months is totally out of the best form, out from TOP100 in ranking, have healthy problems. Not play in big tournaments. Is without practise on high level. Barbora can do it 4. Cornet to beat Pervak 2:0 / 3.30 in Boylesports I feel 2:0 for Cornet, with this odds this is must bet. Cornet in this moment is 69 in ranking, but have potential to be TOP30 minimum, for sure. In this weekend at Bad Gastein courts defending many points(SF in last year) and motivation must be high. In last year first round match won without any problems. Pervak off course is dangerous player and gifted, but can feel tired before this game. In sunday play ITF tournament in Czech Republic, don't have too much time to practise on Austrian courts. I see Alize in next round! 5. Parra-Santonja to beat Govortsova 2:0 / 2.50 in 188bet I give more chance for girl from Spain in this game. Govortsova is very good grass courter, but on red clay is poor, without any weapon. In last two months not played on this surface, is without match rhytm. Don;t have any points to defend, motivation not must be high. Parra Santonja want back to the TOP100 in next weeks, in last season lost in first round in Palermo and not defending any points in this week, every win repeair WTA ranking. Spanish girl have nice serve. 2:0 for Santonja is good bet

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July

Stuttgart R1: Sergiy Stakhovsky v Jaroslav Pospisil - Sergiy Stakhovsky -4 games AH @ 2.06 with Pinnacle 6pts LOSS Stuttgart R1: Albert Montanes v Gilles Simon - Albert Montanes +3 games AH @ 1.901 with Pinnacle 5pts WIN

-1.49pts for the day. Real mixed bag. Expected Stakhovsky to at least match the line after the second set but wasn't to be. Stirring fightback from Montanes made sure the day wasn't a total car crash and thus avoiding a mountain to climb for the rest of the week.

[Dylan]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July Wasn't much to interest me yesterday but a bit more action today; Pere Riba vs Lindell - under 20.5 games 1.75 at unibet. Lindell is pretty hopeless on clay and comes up against Riba who generally performs well on the surface. Riba should have way too much for Lindell and even 6-4, 6-4 would cover this bet and I don't see it being that close. Robin Kern vs Fabio Fogini - i'm not sure how Kern managed to convince the organisers that he would be worth a wild card but on the stats site I use it has him down as 1148 in the world, and today he comes up against Fogini who is world number 38 and reached the qtrs of the French Open this year. Total mismatch in my eyes. Fogini -5.5 games 1.91 at bet365. (smaller stakes on this one as -5.5 is quite a big handicap for potentially a 2 set match!) :hope

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July

Sport	Tennis
Event	Errani v Kulikova
Selection	Kulikova
Strength	10/10
Date	12/07/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 4.33
Reasoning	Another risk in WTA I'm willing to trake, especially getting pretty much best price at a 1 ball bookie. Errani retired last Friday in Budapest after suffering really bad cramps in the heat. Now she's had a few days to recover, and should be fine, but it's not ideal prep. She comes here for home tournament that she has won before, but with her physical condition perhaps she feels more pressure and more stress, especially if the match is close. Kulikova is a good player, she was doing really well last year before missing big chunks of the season with injury problems. She has struggled to recover that level this year, but this is a good chance to get a big win.

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July Couple of WTA dogs today WTA Bad-Gastein R1 Cornet (FRA) vs Pervak (RUS): Cornet @2,100 Pinnacle Cornet defends semifinal from last year, and is not entierly lame on clay. Pervak's status is injured as of week 27 2011 (shoulder), this is her third injury this year and she already retired once this year (Indian Wells). I expect that Alize takes advantage and gets to the second round. WTA Bad-Gastein R1 Ormaechea (ARG) vs Martinez-Sanchez (ESP): Ormaechea @9,430 Pinnacle This one is tricky, low stakes only. Paula Ormaechea is Argentinian 18 yr old qualifier, a claycourt specialist that has won couple of junior and ITF tournaments. Currently ranked #229. Martinez-Sanchez had bad time last week in Bastad, losing unbelievably to Sofia Arvidsson after winning the 1st set. It appeared that she is not entierly fit (shoulder problems), and cannot place the shot with all required force, so she often used dropshots. This troubled a bit "big" Arvidsson, but should not work against 18 yr young Argentinian. I expect an upset here. WTA Palermo R1 Begu (ROU) vs Camerin (ITA): Camerin @4,210 Pinnacle Vinci (ITA) vs Karatantcheva (KAZ): Karatantcheva @4,400 Pinnacle two finalists from the sunday's match in Budapest enter R1 in Palermo. I expect that at least one of them (most probably Begu) is going to be sent packing today. edit: also going for Kulikova (RUS) vs Errani (ITA): Kulikova @4,290 Pinnacle for exactly the reasons stated by Cramer GL :hope

[TennisExpert]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July Sport Tennis Event Celt - Navarro Selection Celt Strength 10/10 Date 12/07/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bwin @ 4.75 Reasoning Tournament in my country, in beautiful Sopot. Celt is home player, propably no name for all bettors. Celt play in Q for this tournament, won two matches, against Szmigiel won 6-0, 6-0.. Nice form. On home soil, must be very motivated. Navarro in last weekend lost in Final in spain Challanger and go to the Sopot, why? In my opinion for the start cash.. Last time played here in 2001! Every year Sopor is tournament with many suprises, I waiting for next

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July

WTA Bad-Gastein R1 Ormaechea (ARG) vs Martinez-Sanchez (ESP): Ormaechea @9,430 Pinnacle LOSS

Perhaps I was too greedy in that one. Neverteheless, 67 67 is not bad result for an unknown qualifier. Hope someone less greedy made profit on the overs or plus handicap.

[TennisExpert]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July Sport Tennis Event Kolar - Kudryavtseva Selection Kolar -1.5(SETS) (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 12/07/2011 Bookmaker/Price Sportingbet @ 3.00 Reasoning Incredible dropps on the Kolar win in two serious bookies, Bwin and Pinnacle.. In pinnacle from 3.66 to 1.89, in Bwin from 3.80 to 1.76! Big money on Kolar, I too play this girl. Kolar is very young girl, from 94', but this is big talent of WTA tennis, in this moment 305 on the world, but in next year TOP150 is possible. Alla Kudryavtseva is not good on clay, feel better on surface like hard courts or something. I go with gift girl and investors money! ----------------------- Sport Tennis Event Tsurenko - Barrois Selection Tsurenko Strength 10/10 Date 12/07/2011 Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 2.75 Reasoning I don't see big difference in tennis class and skills in this moment, odds are wrong. Barrois in last weeks play really awful tennis, hard to watching. Reason is clear, Kristina have big family problems and can't think about tennis only in this moment.. This is first match ever for this girl in Bad Gastein. Tsurenko play better tennis in last time, in last year been worse player than this moment, but made secound round in this tournament. In my opinion can repeat this result today. [email protected]

[TennisExpert]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July Sport Tennis Event Camerin - Begu Selection Camerin Strength 10/10 Date 12/07/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bwin @ 4.25 Reasoning Why not? Begu in Sunday play in Final of Budapest tournament, where lost in three sets against Italy player Roberta Vinci, good result - mnay points for the ranking. Many times players in WTA after good result in previous week make joke matches. Camerin is home player, have support advantage and nice motivation to beat younger player, don't have nothing to lose, Begu is favourite. Camerin in three sets, this is my prediction --------- Sport Tennis Event Knapp - Hercog Selection Knapp Strength 10/10 Date 12/07/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 3.50 Reasoning Similar reason like in match Begu-Camerin. Hercog in Sunday won tournament in Bastad, first WTA title for this girl. Go to the Palermo, I can image Polona lose in first round and nice week at the sunny Palermo down town.. Knapp is home player, three years ago been 35 on the world, play in Q and won three matches without too much troubles. Knapp is very motivated, more than Hercog, any doubts in this. [email protected]

[TennisExpert]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July Sport Tennis Event Pivovarova - Zakopalova Selection Pivovarova Strength 10/10 Date 12/07/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 3.40 Reasoning Sexy Pivovarova can make suprise here! Pivovarova in last two season won Q for the main draw in Palermo, but in first rounds losing, in this year make main draw, because have nice ranking and want make better result than previous years, in my opinion is be able to make second round. Zakopalova have two faces for me - motivation/unmotivation, when have motivation can play on the high level, but without motivation is really bad and can lose against everyone. In this tournament not defending any points and.. you know. --------- Sport Tennis Event Craybas - Parmantier Selection Craybas Strength 10/10 Date 12/07/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bwin @ 4.40 Reasoning Why not? Parmantier is 74 on the world, Craybas 108. Without big difference.. Parmantier make this rank only at the small tournaments, in bigger challanges like this always play bad. In last year here, in Palermo lost in first round against other experience player - Mirjana Lucic. Craybas have experience, in key moments can be big advantage against young players.. In last season here Craybas make nice result, go to the QF. Craybas have more chances to win. ---------- Sport Tennis Event Bovina - Cetkovska Selection Bovina Strength 10/10 Date 12/07/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 3.80 Reasoning Reasons for this pick are clear. Bovina have court practise, because played three matches in Q, in every match play tennis on good level, serve not been easy to break. Elena is big dog here and don't have nothing to lose, really. Cetkovska is big suprise of last weeks, but on grass surface, not on clay. This is debut for this girl at Palermo courts, first match can be hard, especially against girl from Q. Pression on the Cetkovska, big favourite.. Upset

[Dylan]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July

Wasn't much to interest me yesterday but a bit more action today; Pere Riba vs Lindell - under 20.5 games 1.75 at unibet. Fogini -5.5 games 1.91 at bet365. (smaller stakes on this one as -5.5 is quite a big handicap for potentially a 2 set match!) :hope

I was a bit worried for both of these after the tight first sets but the quality of Riba and Fogini showed in the second sets and both bets came in :ok

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July I'll hit this one early. Stuttgart R2: Pablo Andujar v Albert Montanes - Albert Montanes @ 1.833 with Pinnacle 6pts Happy to take Montanes here after his cracking comeback against Simon. He looked in the doldrums for long periods of the match but fought back really well from a set down. I've already spoken about how he'll want to do well here as defending champion and I expect him to build on the momentum and confidence of the win over the Frenchman. Andujar cruised past Crivoi easily enough and is having one of his better years. He got to the final of Casablanca this year and beat Montanes on the way; however, Montanes had won their two previous meetings before that, and I feel he has more motivation in this event than the one in Morocco. I'd say he's probably a step or two above Andujar: there are both equal on serve but Montanes has a bit more variation to his game, and is quicker round the court. Wouldn't surprise me if Andujar made this one a close affair but ultimately I expect Montanes to make it into the quarters from here. :hope

[Mirage]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July In agreement with Atko here..... Albert Montanes vs Pablo Andujar 4/5pts A. Montanes to beat P. Andujar - 5/6 with Pinnacle Both of these are good clay courters but if both were to turn up in their best form Montanes would win through relatively comfortably. Montanes is coming into this week as defending champion and has had an ok season so far playing well against players you expect him to beat and giving good tests to the higher ranked guys such as Lopez, Gasquet, Melzer and Simon. His win against Simon on Monday will have given his confidence a huge boost, just purely because of the way he fought back to take it in 3. The head to head record stands at 2-1 to Montanes and although Andujar's win came earlier this year, i don't think too much can be read into that victory. Andujar was coming into that off the back of a good tournament on the hard court and it was the first clay tournament for both players. Both played good tennis throughout the week but the difference here is that Andujar has been poor ever since that tournament so confidence can't be too high. He has only managed to play 13 matches in 9 tournaments. There is no doubt that he has talent but he frequently switches off during matches and if he does that here he will be punished for it. This should be about 4/6 or 8/13 for me so at a nice price i am happy to take Montanes with a fairly high stake.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 July Guillermo Garcia-Lopez > Lukasz Kubot. 1.75 @ Pinnacle (7/10) Kubot is in an obvious mental hangover after his huge success in both French Open and Wimbledon. He was really poor against Traver but managed to win because the was even worse. Kubot with all sorts of problems on serve, seven double faults etc. Garcia-Lopez destroyed Stepanek in round 1 and being a streaky player I think GGL has to be trusted here. He has got a straight sets win over Kubot in their only H2H meeting which was US Open last year. Odds too good to miss out, I guess. Carla Suarez-Navarro > Arantxa Parra Santonja. 1.85 @ Bwin (5/10) Suarez Navarro has had terrible time with injuries but now she's finally coming back, played some Challenger events lately to get back into the rhythm. Santonja is really crap player when it comes to changing game plan. She has got no plan B and she should have lost to Govortsova on Tuesday but escaped a defeat. She was a break down in the decider but managed to win that match. Navarro has good quality baseline tennis and now with some matches under her belt I think she's ready to return to the big time. Well, at least beating Santonja should not be that hard. She beat her 3 and 3 in Linz last year and was out of form back then as well. On clay she's got even better chance. Laura Pous-Tio > Kristina Barrois. 1.86 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Clash of styles here which should favour Pous-Tio. She's got more variety to her game whereas Barrois is all about slices and dropshots and there's really no secrets about her game. Pous-Tio will be sky high on confidence after knocking out defending cham Goerges and for me she should be reated something like 1.60 or even lower in this match so this is value for me. Roberta Vinci > Irina Camelia Begu. 1.65 @ Bwin (6/10) These two played last weekend in the final of Budapest tournament. Vinci won in three sets but dropped the second one by 1-6. That puts me off handicaps here as lack of focus after very tough week could do damage again. Vinci playing at home will be additional motivation factor for her and she should be good for another win. Not much can changed in 2-3 days, I think. So Vinci for a W here!