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Laying longshots


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Some matches in Coppa America proved time and again that blind betting on favourites never works - despite Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay having been heavily favoured by bookmakers, they failed to win; however, it was draw that killed those bets, not an underdog's win. Thus, I got the idea to try laying long shots, and see if it can bring some profit in. There is no clear selection process; I will be laying underdogs, sometimes at HT, at odds between 5 and 10, although sometimes I may pick teams out of those borders. For league matches, I rely mainly on recent form, and possibly to injury/suspension news; I usually avoid cup matches, although for three in Copa America mentioned above, Bolivia, Venezuela and Ecuador were quite attractive lays. This is paper test. Starting bank is 100 units; initial stake is to liability of 20 units; after that I will go all-in for 10 winning lays, or untill that initial liability is tripled, or bet is lost, whichever comes sooner; then new sequence starts, with initial stake to liability of 20% of total bank, but not less than 20 units. That's what I call "Sequential all-in". Of course, 20% of bank is sucidal plan when really placing bets; but I want to test this idea, and that's why I go so aggresive; it allows me to try 5 times, and if I hit 5 losing sequences in the beginning, then it's a no-no idea. Will see how it goes, and may adjust some of the rules along the way.

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Re: Laying longshots

Bet 1: Finland 1, Monday, 1730CET: KuPS vs. HJK Helsinki FT 2-4 Lay KuPS, odds 8.00, stake 2.85, liability 19.95.
Profit 2.71 units; another bet for tonight: Copa America, Tuesday 0015CET: Uruguay vs. Peru Lay Peru, odds 10.00, stake 2.50 units, liability 22.50 units.
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Re: Laying longshots

Copa America, Tuesday 0015CET: Uruguay vs. Peru FT 1-1 Lay Peru, odds 10.00, stake 2.50 units, liability 22.50 units.
Profit 2.38 units; next stake for liability 25.08 units; but today offer is poor, and there's no bets.
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Re: Laying longshots

One for this night: Brazil 1, Thursday 0030CET: Internacional vs. Atletico PR FT 1-0 Lay Atletico PR, odds 10.00, stake 2.75, liability 24.75.
Profit 2.61 units; next stake to liability 27.70 units. Bet 4: Brazil 1, Friday 0030CET: Botafogo vs. Atletico GO Lay Atletico GO, odds 8.60, stake 3.60, liability 27.36.
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Re: Laying longshots

Profit 2.61 units; next stake to liability 27.70 units. Bet 4: Brazil 1, Friday 0030CET: Botafogo vs. Atletico GO FT 1-1 Lay Atletico GO, odds 8.60, stake 3.60, liability 27.36.
Profit 3.42 units; next stake for liability of 31.12 units.
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Re: Laying longshots At kick-off, Lulea was available to lay at 5.80, so I was a bit worried. However, Forward is 3-1 up at HT, so I believe this is another winning lay, with profit of 6.27 units and new sequential bank at 37.39 units. Assuming that, one would have enough time to place next bet immediately after this one: Iceland 1, Saturday 1800 CET: Breidablik vs. Thor Lay Thor, odds 7.60, stake 5.60, liability 36.96.

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Re: Laying longshots Thanks, Staffy! :ok Forward vs. Lulea FT 4-2, profit 6.27, bank 37.39. Breidablik vs. Thor FT 4-1, profit 5.32, bank 42.71. The one for this night: MLS, Sunday 0130 CET: New York vs. Washington Lay Washington HT, odds 7.00, stake 7.10, liability 42.60.

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Re: Laying longshots Thanks, Kev. :ok But this was a near miss, huh. New York's HT records looked a bit healthier, so I picked it instead of FT; otherwise, it would be lost, FT was 0-1... :\ New York vs. Washington HT 0-0 Profit 6.74 units, new bank 49.45 units. Next bet: Sweden 1, Saturday 1630 CET: Goteborg vs. Syrianska Lay Syrianska HT, odds 8.40, stake 6.65, liability 49.21.

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Re: Laying longshots

Sweden 1, Saturday 1630 CET: Goteborg vs. Syrianska HT 0-0 Lay Syrianska HT, odds 8.40, stake 6.65, liability 49.21.
Profit 6.32 units, bank at 55.77 units. Bet 9, which will be final bet of this first sequence, either winning either losing one: Sweden 1, Sunday 1900 CET: Elfsborg vs. Orebro Lay Orebro, odds 7.20, stake 8.95, liability 55.49 units.
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Re: Laying longshots

Bet 9 winner :clap 3-0 Elfsborg... G'luck with rest :ok
Thanks for update! :ok Indeed, that was winner, with profit of 8.50 units, which means that sequential bank has been tripled, now stands at 64.27 units, so first sequence has been completed; main bank stands at 144.27 units. Stake for first bet of second sequence is to liability of 20% of main bank, which is 28.85 units; remainder of main bank is then 115.42 units. Target is as before - 10 winning lays or tripled bank, 86.56 units, or losing lay which puts an end to the sequence. Bet 1: Finland 1, Monday 1730CET: JJK vs. RoPS Lay RoPS, odds 10.50, stake 3.00 units, liability 28.50 units.
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Re: Laying longshots

Bet 2: Iceland 1, Monday 2200CET: Valur vs. Stjarnan FT 1-1 Lay Stjarnan, odds 6.40, stake 5.85, liability 31.59.
Phew, that was another steamer - Stjarnan was 5.20 to lay at kick-off; if I was more patient, that would be 20% higher profit... :@ Anyway, that was profit of 5.56 units, so sequential bank now stands at 37.26 units. There are no appropriate selections today.
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Re: Laying longshots Gamba Osaka vs. Kobe HT 1-0 Profit 5.89 units, bank now stands at 43.15 units. Next bet: CL qualifications, Wednesday 1930CET: Bangor vs. HJK Lay Bangor, odds 8.00, stake 6.15, liability 43.05.

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Re: Laying longshots Bangor vs. HJK FT 0-3 Profit 5.84, bank 48.99 units now. The only suitable match for today would be Etoile vs. Balestier Khalsa in Singapore 1; recent form and H2H strongly support home team, however Balestier Khalsa is available at as high odds as 21 to back / 24 to lay, which is not worth trying; however, HT market is not formed yet, only a couple of hundreds matched, with overround of 153%; Balestier to back is 2.28, to lay is 28; so I placed a lay bet at 8.80, will check later if it's eventually matched, or is available to lay at odds up to 12; in my opinion, that's highest odds worth taking in this case.

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Re: Laying longshots

Some matches in Coppa America proved time and again that blind betting on favourites never works - despite Argentina' date=' Brazil and Paraguay having been heavily favoured by bookmakers, they failed to win; [/quote'] These teams were not heavily favored by bookmakers, they were heavily favored by betting public :loon
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Re: Laying longshots

These teams were not heavily favored by bookmakers' date=' they were heavily favored by betting public :loon[/quote'] Yep, you're right; but opinion of betting public dictates bookmaker's odds, so it appears bookies favours them, too. Nevermind, I wanted to say what we all probably know: going with the odds (therefore, following the stream) is not profitable in the long run. These 3 "surprises" in only a couple of days just triggered me to start this thread, and, if patient enough, to compare later profit/loss of this method with that of backing straight home win, or home win DNB.
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Re: Laying longshots OK, let me try today with another Singaporean match; stats are quite similar to yesterday match, but odds are different; probably bookies know something that I don't know, but I'm willing to take this risk: Singapore 1, Friday 1330CET: Hougang vs. Woodlands Lay Woodlands HT, odds 8.60, stake 6.40, liability 48.64.

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Re: Laying longshots Wow, that was another near miss! HT 1-0, and then FT boom!, 2-3. :\ Unlike New York vs. Washington, where I indeed had some doubts about FT, this time I went for HT and not FT only because of better odds. :\ Time to take a couple of days off. Profit here was 6.08, bank now at 55.07 units.

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Re: Laying longshots

Japan 1' date=' Monday 1100CET: Hiroshima vs. Fukuoka [b']HT 0-0 Lay Fukuoka HT, odds 7.60, stake 8.30, liability 54.78.
Profit 7.89, bank now stands at 62.96 units. Match ended without goals, too.
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