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Laying longshots


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Re: Laying longshots Poor offer these days; however, one match stands out by teams' recent form, so I go for it: Brazil 2, Wednesday, 20. July, 0200 CET: Americana vs. Goias Lay Goias, odds 6.60, stake 11.20, liability 62.72 units.

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Re: Laying longshots So that's a loser; at these odds, it was due to happen... :( Loss 62.72 units, sequential bank 0.24 units, total bank 115.66 units. Initial bank for next sequence is 20 % of that, or 23.13 units.

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Re: Laying longshots

Finland 2' date=' Wednesday 1730CET: OPS vs. Kemi [b']FT 2-1 Lay Kemi, odds 5.00, stake 5.75 units, liability 23.00 units.
Profit 5.46 units, bank 28.59 units. I'll push my luck once more this night: MLS, Thursday 0130 CET: Washington vs. New England Lay New England HT, odds 6.40, stake 5.25, liability 28.35 units.
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Re: Laying longshots

MLS' date=' Thursday 0130 CET: Washington vs. New England [b']HT 0-0 Lay New England HT, odds 6.40, stake 5.25, liability 28.35 units.
Profit 4.99 units, bank 33.58 units. For reference, FT was 0-1... :\
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Re: Laying longshots One for today that suits my taste: Austria 2, 1830CET: St. Andra vs. BW Linz Lay BW Linz However, liquidity is poor, and there's a big gap; best back odds are 5.90, and best lay odds were 7.20; and just as I was watching market, somebody took away that lay at 7.20 (or its owner cancelled it), and then best lay odds appeared to be 800, which is a bit higher than I'm ready to accept! :moon So, I placed my offer at 6.20; will see later if it will be matched.

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Re: Laying longshots

One for today that suits my taste: Austria 2, 1830CET: St. Andra vs. BW Linz Lay BW Linz However, liquidity is poor, and there's a big gap; best back odds are 5.90, and best lay odds were 7.20; and just as I was watching market, somebody took away that lay at 7.20 (or its owner cancelled it), and then best lay odds appeared to be 800, which is a bit higher than I'm ready to accept! :moon So, I placed my offer at 6.20; will see later if it will be matched.
Well, that has been matched; so, odds 6.20, stake 6.45, liability 33.54.
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Re: Laying longshots St. Andra vs. BW Linz FT 3-2 Profit 6.13, bank 39.71; but that was tough one, HT was 1-2... :/ Off to Finland, Helsinki is in great form, so I'll try to make use of it: Finland 1, Saturday 1400CET: Jaro vs. Helsinki Lay Jaro, odds 8.60, stake 5.20, liability 39.52.

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Re: Laying longshots There's another qualifier soon, just in time after Jaro vs. Helsinki, and odds are tempting, so that's next match in this hunt; Malmo is inconsistent, while Helsingborg has also been in decent shape, so I think it's worth risking, at lowest odds till now. Stake, of course, depends on outcome of this current match - either full sequential bank, either new sequence will start with 20% of remaining bank. Sweden 1, Saturday 1600 CET: Helsingborg vs. Malmo, lay Malmo at 4.20; stake to follow.

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Re: Laying longshots Phew, that was not a good choice, Jaro won 1-0... :wall Sequential bank 0.19, remaining bank 115.85; so, initial bank for next sequence is 23.17, remaining bank 92.68. Lay Malmo, odds 4.20, stake 7.20, liability 23.04.

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Re: Laying longshots Angelholms vs. Brage HT 0-0 HT Profit 4.56 units, bank 34.57 units. Another one this evening: Iceland 1, Sunday 2200CET: Reykjavik vs. Breidablik Lay Breidablik, odds 5.90, stake 7.00, liability 34.30.

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Re: Laying longshots Reykjavik vs. Breidablik, FT 4-0 There was no suitable matches last several days; there is one for tonight; however, I first need to correct running total: I made a mistake after Jaro vs. Helsinki match, I forgot to deduct that lost bank from total bank; so, instead of 115.85, remaining bank was 92.72 units, and initial bank for sequence #4 would be 18.54 units; however, my plan is to risk not less than 20 units, so that means liability for Swedish match was 20 units; here is recalculation: Helsingborg vs. Malmo, odds 4.20, stake 6.25, liability 20.00, profit 5.94, new bank 25.94. Angelholms vs. Brage, odds 7.20, stake 4.15, liability 25.73, profit 3.94, new bank 29.88. Reykjavik vs. Breidablik, odds 5.90, stake 6.05, liability 29.65, profit 5.75, new bank 35.63. This evening selection: Brazil 1, Thursday 0030CET: Gremio vs. America Mineiro Lay America Mineiro, odds 9.20, stake 4.30, liability 35.26.

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Re: Laying longshots Salzburg vs. Mattersburg HT 0-0 Profit 4.28, bank 49.69 units. Another one from Austria this evening: Austria 2, Tuesday 1830 CET: Lask Linz vs. Hartberg Lay Hartberg, odds 11.50, stake 4.70, liability 49.35.

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Re: Laying longshots Haugesund is 3-0 up at HT, so I'll take it they won't lose this one. Profit 8.84 units, bank 62.99 units. Target for this sequence was 60 units, so it's completed, after 8 bets; total bank now stands at 135.71 units, so bank for sequence 5 is 27.14 units (20% of total bank); remaining bank is 108.57 units. Next bet: Iceland 1, Wednesday 2115CET: Valur vs. Grindavik Lay Grindavik, as suggested by our friend here; odds 7.60, stake 4.10, liability 27.06.

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Re: Laying longshots Haugesund vs. Sogndal FT 4-0 Valur vs. Grindavik FT 1-1 Profit 3.90, bank 31.04 units. One nice for today; Jaro let me down two weeks ago with braev win against HJK Helsinki at home; this time they are away, against team which pretend for second position, and scores in average more than 3 goals per match at home; so I hope this time will be no surprises: Finland 1, Saturday, 1730CET: Inter Turku vs. Jaro Lay Jaro, odds 9.40, stake 3.65, liability 30.66 units.

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Re: Laying longshots Inter Turku vs. Jaro FT 2-0 Profit 3.47 units, bank 34.51 units. After poor offer throughout entire week, there should be a couple of matches this weekend: Russia 1, Saturday 1415CET: Dinamo Moscow vs. Terek Grozniy Lay Terek, odds 9.40, stake 4.10, liability 34.44.

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Re: Laying longshots Dinamo is 4-1 up atm, so I take this as successfull lay; profit 3.89, bank 38.40; onto next one: Sweden 2, Saturday 1900CET: Atvidabergs vs. Jonkopings Lay Jonkopings, odds 8.80, stake 4.90, liability 38.22.

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Re: Laying longshots Dinamo vs. Terek FT 6-2 Atvidabergs vs. Jonkopings FT 2-1 Profit 4.66, bank 43.05. Next bet from Brazil 1, Sunday 0200CET, Botafogo vs. America Mineiro Lay America, odds 8.80, stake 5.50, liability 42.90.

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Re: Laying longshots Corinthians vs. Ceara FT 2-2 I went for this "last-minute" pick after Smuk bl's analysis; unfortunately, his optimistic prediction failed, while this more cautios approach netted me 6.98 units profit, so bank now stands at 62.86 units. Next bet this afternoon: Finland 1, Monday 1730CET: Honka vs. Vaasa PS Lay Vaasa PS, odds 7.60, stake 9.50, liability 62.70.

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Re: Laying longshots Heidenheim vs. Jena FT 0-0 Profit 12.16 units, bank 84.05 units. Target for this sequence was 81.43, which means that sequence #5 has been successfully completed. Total bank now stands at 192.62 units (108.57 + 84.05); sequential bank for next sequence is 38.52 units (20% of total bank), and remaining bank is 154.10 units. First bet of sequence #6: Germany 3, Wednesday 1900CET: Munster vs. Babelsberg Lay Babelsberg, odds 5.60, stake 8.35, liability 38.41.

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Re: Laying longshots Yup, it's still going, although I thought this last one was going to be a loser - Munster was 0-1 down; got red card in 85 minute, and just when I thought it was over, they equalized a couple of minutes later! Babelsberg got a red card in 90 minute, too, for somewhat calmer finish of the match... :\ Anyway, here's the update: Munster vs. Babelsberg FT 1-1 Profit 7.93 units, bank 46.46 units. Forgot to specify in previous post, target in this sequence is 115.57 units (38.52 * 3).

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