froment Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 Re: Laying longshots Blah, that was a bad choice, which put an end to streak of 18 winning lays... :\ Flamengo vs. Atletico GO FT 1-4 Loss 46.40 units, sequential bank 0.05 units, total bank 154.15 units. Bank for sequence #7 starts at 30.83 units (20 % of 154.15), target is 92.49 units (3 * 30.83); remaining bank is 123.32 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 Re: Laying longshots Next bet: Swiss 1, Saturday 1745: Zurich vs. Xamax Lay Xamax, odds 8.60, stake 4.05, liability 30.78. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 Re: Laying longshots Zurich vs. Xamax FT 0-2 Time for another little break, methinks... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 3, 2011 Author Share Posted September 3, 2011 Re: Laying longshots Two consecutive winning streaks almost doubled my bank, and then two consecutive losses almost brought it down to beginning, phew... Off to a new try: after last loss, bank stands at 123.37 units. Sequential bank is 20% of total bank, 24.67 units, and target is 74.01 units. Remaining bank is 98.70 units. Next bet: England League 1, Saturday, 1600 CET: Tranmere vs. Yeovil Lay Yeovil, odds 4.60, stake 6.85, liability 24.66. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 4, 2011 Author Share Posted September 4, 2011 Re: Laying longshots Tranmere vs. Yeovil FT 0-0 Profit 6.51, bank 31.18. Next bet in ten minutes: Norway 2, Sunday 1800CET: Sandefjord vs. Nybergsund Lay Nybergsund HT, odds 9.40, stake 3.70, liability 31.08. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 Re: Laying longshots Sandefjord vs. Nybergsund HT 1-0 Profit 3.52, bank 34.70. Next bet: Brazil 1, Tuesday 2100CET: Botafogo vs. Ceara Lay Ceara, odds 7.40, stake 5.40, liability 34.56. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 Re: Laying longshots Obviously, it should read Wednesday, not Tuesday... :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 8, 2011 Author Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Laying longshots Botafogo vs. Ceara FT 4-0 Profit 5.13, bank 39.83. Credits for next bet go to Jompy and his analysis: Singapore 1, Thursday 1330CET: Geylang vs. Balestier Khalsa Lay Balestier Khalsa, odds 5.40, stake 9.05, liability 39.82. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shy10ck Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Re: Laying longshots Have you considered to paper bet against Real Madrid? 12,5 on the draw, 30 on Getafe, at Betfair. Forget it. I get 88-8-4. Small value, high variance. Sorry I interrupt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 Re: Laying longshots Geylang vs. Balestier Khalsa FT 3-2 A bit scarce match, HT was 0-1, Balestier even went to 0-2 in 56', but Geylang succeeded to overturn the match and confirm favorite role, but unfortunately for Jompy, without covering handicap... Anyway, profit 8.60, bank 48.42. There are two matches today I'll go for; there is enough time between them to place second bet, so I'll post both bets now, in case I don't have enough time to pop up in between matches; I will calculate stake for second match depending of result of first match - if it goes tits-up, I'll have to start again from the beginning. Germany 2, Friday 1800CET: Greuter Furth vs. Duisburg Lay Duisburg, odds 5.70, stake 10.30, liability 48.41. England League 1, Friday 2045CET: Preston vs. Yeovil Lay Yeovil, odds 6.80, stakes to be calculated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 Re: Laying longshots Have you considered to paper bet against Real Madrid? 12,5 on the draw, 30 on Getafe, at Betfair. Forget it. I get 88-8-4. Small value, high variance. Sorry I interrupt. No problems about interruption, thanks for input! :ok I haven't considered it at all, odds too high! Odds range I place bets is between 5.00 and 10.00; sometimes bit above or below that range, but 30 is way too high, won't bother with such a low return! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shy10ck Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Re: Laying longshots Ok :-) Then consider Sunderland. I bought them, at 6. I am on my smartphone, and cant remember my estimate, but I am pretty sure I still find value in betfair odds 5.8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 Re: Laying longshots Hmmm... I'm not delighted with that pick, either. I'm vary of laying home teams (the one with Jaro and HJK costed me a lost sequence!), and it's been only 3 rounds played here, so it's too soon to tell the real strength on the basis of stats (which is what I most rely on); Chelsea played only weak teams so far, and Sunderland resisted Liverpool away, so surely their chances to win this match must be better than 17%. The only stats that support Chelsea are great H2H, 10 wins versus 2 wins of Sunderland, but anyway I'll stay away from that one too! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 10, 2011 Author Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: Laying longshots Greuter Furth vs. Duisburg FT 2-1 Profit 9.79 units, bank 58.21. Preston vs. Yeovil FT 4-3 Stake 10.00, liability 58.00 Profit 9.50, bank 67.71. Next bet in quarter of hour: England Championship, Saturday 1600CET: Cardiff vs. Doncaster Lay Doncaster, odds 6.80, stake 11.65, liability 67.57. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 10, 2011 Author Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: Laying longshots Cardiff vs. Doncaster FT 2-0 Profit 11.07, bank 78.78. That means sequence has been completed. Total bank stands at 177.48; next sequence starts with bank of 35.50 units (20 %); remaining bank is 141.98, and target is 106.49. Belgium 1, Saturday 2000CET: Standard vs. Westerlo Lay Westerlo, odds 11.50, stake 3.35, liability 35.18. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 11, 2011 Author Share Posted September 11, 2011 Re: Laying longshots Unfortunately, Standard has not covered handicap as high as 2.5, advised by Jompy; they barely won 1-0, by penalty in 82 minute. Anyway, that was a nice preview, and bit that made me go for Standard rather than some other alternatives I considered yesterday evening, so thanks Jompy! :ok Standard vs. Westerlo FT 1-0 Profit 3.18, bank 38.68. Next bet courtesy of our icelandic expert: Iceland 1, Sunday 1800CET: IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs. Thor Lay Thor, odds 11.00, stake 3.85, liability 38.50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 11, 2011 Author Share Posted September 11, 2011 Re: Laying longshots Ok :-) Then consider Sunderland. I bought them, at 6. I am on my smartphone, and cant remember my estimate, but I am pretty sure I still find value in betfair odds 5.8. That appeared to be good call! :clap I'm just too cautious. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 11, 2011 Author Share Posted September 11, 2011 Re: Laying longshots IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs. Thor FT 3-1 Profit 3.66, bank 42.33. Another very long shot this evening: France 1, Sunday 2100CET: PSG vs. Brest Lay Brest, odds 13.00, stake 3.50, liability 42.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 12, 2011 Author Share Posted September 12, 2011 Re: Laying longshots PSG vs. Brest FT 1-0 Profit 3.33 units, bank 45.66 units. It seems I'm stuck with really long odds in this sequence; next one seems the only suitable bet this evening, and Betexplorer showed odds of 12; now I log into Betfair, just to find odds drifted to 15, but I'll still take it: Sweden 2, Monday 1900CET: Atvidabergs vs. Brage Lay Brage, odds 15.00, stake 3.25, liability 45.50 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 Re: Laying longshots Atvidabergs vs. Brage FT 2-0 Profit 3.09, bank 48.75. Next bet: Tuesday, 13. September, 1900CET, Germany 3: Saarbrucken vs. Darmstadt Lay Darmstadt, odds 4.80, stake 12.80, liability 48.64. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 14, 2011 Author Share Posted September 14, 2011 Re: Laying longshots Saarbrucken vs. Darmstadt FT 4-0 Profit 12.16 units, bank 60.91 units. Next bet: Wednesday, 14. September, Norway 1, 1900CET: Valerenga vs. Odd Grenland Lay Odd Grenland, odds 6.20, stake 11.70, liability 60.84. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scalper23 Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 Re: Laying longshots Nice thread here!! Really unlucky with this one, can't beleive Odd Grenland won??:wall Your lays carry on though don't they? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 14, 2011 Author Share Posted September 14, 2011 Re: Laying longshots Thanks, Scalper! :ok I also find it odd that Odd won, but I'll take it's one of "those" games where logic takes day off. That only goal on the match was own goal! I layed Odd Grenland with real money, and after they went up, I considered redding up; however, statistics suggested that Valerenga was superior in the match, and it was just unlucky own goal, so I expected them to fight back and score - they scored 8 in last 5 matches at home, Odd conceded 11 in last 5 away (including 7 goals against Rosenborg), so I decided to let it run, but they made it to the wrong net this evening... :lol Anyway, I was on run of 12 winning lays, so losing one was "due" to happen at these odds. Yes, I'll carry on with the lays; this was 9th sequence, with total of 53 lays, 48 winning and 5 losing; it's too early to draw conclusions, but it seems to have potential - that strike rate suggests odds of 10.60, while I layed at average odds of 7.30! After 10th sequence, I'll probably revise my staking plan: at the moment, after lost 9th sequence, bank stands at 142.04 units; however, if I layed each match with stakes to fixed liability of 20 units (level stakes), bank would be now 167.99 units; and if I layed each match with stakes to fixed liability of 20% of current bank (fixed percentage), bank would stand to 175.64 units, i.e., profit would be 80 % higher! And in fact, it was one of purposes when I started this glory hunt - I have been using this "sequential all in" staking system for several years now (and advised it a couple of times here in forum), but I have never really tested its efficiency; and now, it seems it's not as good as I have thought. Another purpose I have on my mind is to compare profitability of laying with backing and DNB; but I didn't record most of the back and DNB odds for these matches, so I'll have to either collect them either to estimate; another issue in that case would be HT lays, due to inconsistency of HT and FT odds for these types of bets (HT and FT lay odds for almost half of my matches were similar, but HT and FT back and DNB odds were not!), so I'm not sure if I will do that, we'll see... And, btw, thanks for deciding to make your very post in this thread! ;) :welcome to forum, I hope you like and enjoy it! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 Re: Laying longshots Valerenga vs. Odd Grenland FT 0-1 Loss 60.84 units, bank 0.07 units. Total bank is now 142.04 units; initial bank for next sequence is 20%, or 28.41 units, remaining bank is then 113.63 units. Target is 85.22 units. Thursday, 15. September, Iceland 1, 1915 CET: Hafnarfjordur vs. Fram Lay Fram, odds 8.60, stake 3.70, liability 28.12. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 16, 2011 Author Share Posted September 16, 2011 Re: Laying longshots Hafnarfjordur vs. Fram FT 1-1 Profit 3.52, bank 31.92. This match almost went the same way as previous one - Fram scored a goal in 87 minute, and Hafnarfjordur equalized in 2nd minute of injury time... :\ Anyway, onto next bet: Friday, 16. September, Sweden 1, 1900CET: GAIS vs. Norrkoping Lay Norrkoping, odds 6.80, stake 5.65, liability 31.64. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 Re: Laying longshots Ehmmmm... abandoned this thread, as I was frustrated with this last fail; GAIS had an advantage early in the match, yet they managed to ruin it... :wall I tried to figure out what was wrong and how to improve this strategy, and then lost inspiration and more or less gave it up... GAIS vs. Norrkoping FT 1-2, loss 31.64 units. After 10 sequences and 55 bets, main bank stands at 113.92 units (initial bank was 100 units); that confirms my initial thoughts that there is potential in this strategy and staking plan, but at the moment I do not have patience to examine it carefully and post bets here; so, despite to what I said just several posts above (and more than a month earlier), I will conclude this hunt, untill some better times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidjames Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Re: Laying longshots very interesting thread.. i was trying something along these lines at the same time as well as analysing a lot of patterns of losing lays. i also hit a lot of problems with Sweden (where i live), every game last summer seemed to pretty much a lottery and teams were regularly winning with 4,5, 6 + odds. i still think there is value in these bets though and having done about a years worth of analysis im trying again, only with slightly higher odds. if youre laying teams at around 6 you can make money over time but you end up paying so much of it back it becomes infuriating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 Re: Laying longshots Thanks for your insights, sidjames! :ok I'm afraid not only Sweden leagues are lottery, but pretty much any other league. After all, isn't it what the odds suggest - if I layed at odds of around 10, then I'm bound to hit a loser (i.e., winning team, since we talk about laying them here) in about 10 matches; the art of laying is to try to avoid those winners... :\ I agree with you there is value in this type of betting; as seen above, I abandoned this thread and strategy as whole, but I returned to it after a couple of months, since laying appears to be most comfortable field for me. I added several changes in above strategy; the major one being that I place most of the best in-play now, since these longshots usually shorten slightly during first half (if there is no goal, of course); I gain several ticks, which may not sound big, but at odds this high, every single tick is important! However, the most important thing in betting is discipline and patience, and I have none of them! :wall Anyway, I avoid betting at the end of the season, so major european leagues will become "ineligible" soon, and Sweden is bound to start very next week, along with other "summer" leagues, so I hope both you and me will have better season this time! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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