Rupert's Racing Thread

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Not picking the right ones for BBOTD at the moment but I don't care if I can get a win on a day :)

[Kithanga]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

3.55 Southwell - 2pts win Podgies Boy @ 7/1 (Hills) Richard Fahey's yard are going well and this horse is well handicapped having completed a hat-trick off a mark of 74 in December 2010. He runs off 73 today with 5lbs taken off by Shane B Kelly - an able claimer - and I think he should go well eased in grade. He ran respectably on his return from a long break at Lingfield in November off 77 and remained on that mark when again running okay over a mile at Southwell. That was a better race than this though, I think, and he's been eased in the weights since. Again was pitched into tricky company at Lingfield last time despite running off 75 with 7lbs taken off by Laura Barry. This was a good 0-85 affair won by the bang in form Lockantanks and my selection faded to be beaten just over 3l. This is a 0-75 contest and I think the 7f at Southwell will really suit. The horse clearly still has ability and dropped in the handicap again with Kelly's claim will see this one go well I feel.

Nice one. Looks like you're on a roll now!

[Aidymac]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Well done Ruperto!

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.25 Doncaster - 3pts win Quel Ballistic @ 2/1 (Hills) I feel that John Wade's runner can prove a little bit of a cut above the rest in this race with conditions to suit. The top-weight is consistent and looks like a stamina test will suit. He finished his races off well over 2m4f over hurdles and the move to fences always looked like it would suit. He could only chase a 128 rated horse home on his chasing debut (beaten 16l) but it was a sound effort for his first try over the bigger obstacles. A 146 horse was in the way next time in Notus De La Tour and a 127 horse in second. Does get outpaced in races before staying on so the step up in trip was bound to suit, and he finished 2nd in a handicap at Wetherby. That was a decent race and was staying on in a clear second when coming to grief late on last time out at Catterick. A test definitely suits this horse and gets 3 miles again today. This track should suit and the quality of race isn't sufficient enough to have him in too much trouble in my opinion.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.10 Fairyhouse - 2pts win Give Us A Hand @ 7/2 (Ladbrokes) I think the favourite is worth opposing and this 10yo has a huge chance of winning this 2m4f handicap hurdle in my opinion. Improved on three chase runs in late 2008 and early 2009 but was off the track for 2 years and his subequent two starts saw him shape as if needing the run. He bounced back after that to finish 4th of 20 in a handicap hurdle over today's trip. Went back to chasing and added a second and a third to his record before a 15l victory at Sligo. Met a nice, well-handicapped, progressive horse in Treacle next time before a keeping on second over 2 miles back over hurdles from a horse who has won again since, and shaped as if the return to 2m4f would suit. Had no chance at the weights in a Grade 1 last time out over fences and that can safely be ignored. Returns back to suitable company and conditions today and the race isn't too strong.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Ouch.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 4.15 Kempton - 2pts win Porthgwidden Beach @ 9/2 (PP) This is a pretty awful 5f sprint but I think Anthony Middleton's charge has a big shout back to his best conditions. His only career win came over c&d and has been campaigned regularly at 6f recently which doesn't suit him as much as the minimum trip. 214 is his form figures over 5f on polytrack and ran okay recently at Southwell over this trip. He clearly enjoys Kempton and his poorer runs over further has seen his mark drop to below his winning mark. This is a bad race and he can take it.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 4.45 Kempton - 4pts win Nibani @ 9/4 (BlueSQ) Alastair Lidderdale's horses are running perfectly well at the moment and this horse is thriving, and the step back up to this trip should see him pick up his second career victory. He's been in cracking form the last three runs. Had far too much to do three starts ago but still flew home having come widest of all to take 3rd, beaten just a length, and finally got off the mark next time by 2l in claiming company from a subsequent winner. Proved the current handicap mark is no problem when a fast-finishing 2nd over an insufficient mile at Lingfield last time - going down by just a head. That was a good race and now back up in trip he clearly is in good heart and must go well.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 5.15 Kempton - 3pts win Earlsmedic @ 11/4 (VC)

5.45 Wolverhampton - 2pts win Earlsmedic @ 9/2 (Ladbrokes) I was very encouraged by this horse's effort over an insufficient 5f at Kempton last time, especially as he was sent off an 8/1 shot, when this yard's winners often are well supported. He couldn't go the early gallop before sprinting home well down the outside and a return to 6f should see him go very close here. He's very well handicapped as he's won off 12lbs higher in the past and the yard are going well. He should get a good pace to run off and will be especially interesting should money come for him - even though he's the favourite as it is!

I know he's back to 5f today but it shouldn't be a problem off a likely strong pace so long as he gets out of the gates okay. There are a number of speedballs in here and my selection is likely to be thundering home late on. He was nailed on the line at Wolverhampton last time and remains well handicapped.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Nibani won well. Earlsmedic had a horrible run round, didn't help.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Set-up a site for myself now. Bloody hell it tired me out getting it to where it is now, though! Not simply a tipping one because it could go to pot, but also news/articles/views 'cos journalism's always been something I've had an interest in doing so that's an important side to it to for me.

[cpo]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Nice work mate, looks good. Good luck with it :ok

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1.05 Fontwell - 1pt win Capdalight @ 16/1 (Bet365) I'm taking a chance on this horse but it's a chance which I feel may pay off. Capdalight improved greatly for joining the Paul Henderson yard last year and put in some decent efforts over the summer months - possibly coinciding with the quicker ground. That is a risk I'm going to have to take today with the ground on the soft side yet again, but there have been excuses for his recent poor runs. He won impressively by 8l at Ffos Las in June off a 7lb lower mark than what he runs off today and then didn't have the best of runs at Newton Abbot next time over an insufficient two-mile trip in a race with stronger opposition than he faces today. It all went horribly wrong on his return to action in the mud at Chepstow in November as the exaggerated hold-up tactics deployed by Richard Johnson meant the horse was never in the race and didn't pick up. He finished a well-beaten last of seventeen which was hugely disappointing. However, he will have needed the run. Chasing never really looked his game in previous runs and it appeared the same when he put in a rather pitiful effort at Wincanton later that month. He never jumped and was beaten virtually throughout. His third run of November saw him run with a great deal more promise, however, despite the fact he was beaten 27l. He has shown that he can go well at Fontwell and on this occasion, the horse jumped and travelled with much greater zest than previously. He moved as well as anything in the race but didn't pick up after 3 out and mistakes probably exaggerated his margin of defeat. He also raced very keenly (regularly does) so it was no surprise to see him struggle to finish his race off too strongly. After a busy schedule that month, he's had a breather and returns to a novice handicap hurdle, which I feel will suit him much more. It should allow him to settle a bit better, and minimise the damage of mistakes. He may need the run, but I'm banking on him to run a sound race on the basis of his most recent effort. Another positive is the form of the stable. Henderson's last six runners have resulted in two wins (9/2, 14/1), two seconds (8/1, 9/1) and two held at big prices (40/1, 66/1). With the yard in better form now, a return to hurdles, and a freshening up period, I hope that Capdalight can bounce back. There are a few question marks, however, so a minimum win bet will do.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1.15 Catterick - Dove Hill (Will take a price when available later) Dove Hill looks likely to be a reasonable price for this beginners' chase unless early money comes and I feel he's the one they all have to beat at the weights. This gelding was an expensive purchase for Howard Johnson having finished first-past-the-post in good style in two point-to-point races. He was subsequently disqualified for having a banned substance in his sample on the first occasion but proved himself by coming home an eight length victor next time out. After nearly two years off the track he ran a good 2nd to a subsequent winner (and then 129 rated) animal on his hurdling debut - staying on over the three mile trip at Kelso. Johnson did not hesitate before sending him over fences for the first time under rules next time out at Newcastle in testing conditions over three miles and a mistake three out possibly cost him the race. As it was, he finished a respectable 3rd - beaten just 2 1/2l by the 125 rated favourite. He ran up to a smart mark on that occasion which gives him a huge chance today at the weights. Miss Walton takes off 7lbs which means his rivals must give weight to a horse rated around the 120s. Dove Hill had his first run for Sheena Walton over hurdles at Kelso in late December - where he shaped as if needing the run. He still ran well enough and with natural improvement to come from that, I think he still retains his ability. He returns to chasing in an ideal race - over a little further than three miles. He has plenty of stamina and even in this trappy affair, I think he'll prove tough to beat.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1.45 Catterick - Cry Of Freedom (Will take price when available) This looks a likely two-horse race in the market and John Ferguson's Cry Of Freedom looks set to be touched off for favouritism by Donald McCain's Star In Flight. Cry Of Freedom paid for strong 2yo form for the rest of his career on the flat - as he failed to live up to his early potential. His handicap mark was ruined by these good early runs and left him entering handicaps off a mark of 87. He couldn't compete as his form tailed off and ended up a disappointment. However, a clean slate over hurdles and a fresh start for this yard who do well with their jumping recruits, saw him defy a lengthy absence to return to the winner's enclosure at Huntingdon last time out. He was green at a few of his flights and made a mistake at the last, but it didn't prevent him shaking off his challengers quite readily come the line. He certainly proved he had the stamina for the job and the form has some substance to it. The runner-up ran soundly to be beaten less than 10l by Supreme Novice hopeful Darlan next time out before running a similar race behind the Nicky Henderson hot pot Tour D'argent. The third horse also placed next time out behind 132 and 124 rated horses respectively. Dineur was in fourth spot at Huntingdon, and even though he was giving weight to my selection, franked the form with a win next time out. At the weights, Cry Of Freedom has to run to 120 effectively with Jack Quinlan's 5lb claim and I think he's well up to that. He's sure to come on for that and has had a little break also to minimise the potential 'bounce' factor. I think Star In Flight's 125 rating might flatter him slightly for all he won with his head in his chest last time out. To the eye, he didn't beat very much, and coming up against stronger opposition today, I think he's vulnerable. John Ferguson is another trainer in form with three winners from his last six runners, and one horse which ran out when holding every chance.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1.15 Catterick - 4pts win Dove Hill @ 4/1 (Bet365) 1.45 Catterick - 3pts win Cry Of Freedom @ 5/2 (Bet365)

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Miss C Wilson didn't give the horse even half a chance. Baffling, but ultimately really disappointing.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread FFS!

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.05 Meydan - 1pt e/w Spirit Of Sharjah @ 16/1 (Bet365) This is a competitive 7f handicap on the tapeta surface but 8 of the 14 runners are coming back off an absence and it can suit the race-fit Spirit Of Sharjah, who ran respectively last week. The horse relishes the artificial surface with three wins from nine starts on the all-weather. This becomes three from seven over 7f which is clearly his best trip. His last three runs, however, have come over a mile. This trip doesn't suit him as much as he can't utilise his turn of foot as well. He likes coming off a good gallop over seven and should get that today. His run at the carnival last time out was fair in a decent race. He had a wide draw and was never dangerous but I think this race will suit him more. He's got a better draw today and the step back in trip looks sure to suit. Each-way possibilities.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.45 Meydan - 3pts win Bohemian Melody @ 3/1 (Boyles) Marco Botti's horses are running well and Bohemian melody put in fine efforts on his two most recent starts in the UK. He finished 1st in his group, and 3rd overall, at Ripon in a good handicap before making a big impression at Doncaster with the blinkers fitted for the first time. The horse travelled strongly and quickened clear nicely to beat a large, competitive field by 2 1/4l in a 6 furlong handicap. He has been hiked in the weights since, but with the blinkers retained, can still prove good enough today. The form of the Doncaster race looks solid and William Buick (2-2 on the horse) keeps the ride from that day.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 5.35 Meydan - 2pts win Fanunalter @ 6/1 (Boyles) Another one of Marco Botti's runners must have a good chance in the Group 3 race run over a mile on the tapeta. The joint top-rated horse in the race, Fanunalter was in good form in the summer in the UK - after running respectably in Dubai prior to that. He was value for a bit more than the winning margin at Epsom when winning the Diomed Stakes and it all went wrong at Salisbury next time out. The horse travelled powerfully but suffered from an unclear passage before running on inside the final furlong to finish a 2 1/4l 5th. The globetrotting type went to Italy last time out and again ran respectably behind top-class horses in Dick Turpin and Cityscape. He ran right up to his mark - staying on and going down by 2l (had to switch). Returns to Meydan and the artificial surface today. He ran well on the turf in Dubai last season but his form on the all-weather gives even further hope today. He has won twice, been second once, and third once on the surface so this will obviously be no issue. 21221 is his record after a break of at least two months so he goes well fresh, and must go well.

[anth699]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread wer will i find your site rupert?

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

wer will i find your site rupert?

I edited my post 'cos I didn't realise it wasn't really accepted on here to post links.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Said I wouldn't be doing this much, but I really can't fancy this horse much stronger. 1.40 Musselburgh - 5pts win Kickahead @ 2/1 (Ladbrokes) At the weights, this selling hurdle appears to concern three runners. However, I strongly side in favour of Ian Williams' seven time winner, Kickahead. Has plenty of winning form in handicaps off around this mark of 115 and I think he will certainly run up to this mark just about. If he does, the others will have to run very good races to stop him, as he's best in at the weights with Steven Gagan taking 7lbs off. His last six starts over hurdles show form of 1U1161 with the unseat coming when close up and the 6th coming in a listed race where he was only beaten 10l. He returned from an absence in October and ran two moderate races on the flat at Wolverhampton. They certainly warmed him up and he then won a selling hurdle nicely with the form franked by the second and third. The second ran a good 3rd in a Grade 3 Wincanton hurdle next time out and the third has placed in two Grade 3 hurdles since also. Don'tpaytheferryman is one of those in with a shout today, but has been out of form this season and needs to bounce back, whilst Philharmonic Hall's mark may flatter him despite having to give weight to a decent type last time. He was beaten 18l, though, and the winner was heavily eased, so I'm not sure he'll prove up to this. Good chance of second, though. Good ground suits my selection and he will take a lot of beating.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1.20 Huntingdon - 2pts win Royaume Bleu @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes) This horse is a moderate animal but has some form to his name and can go well returned to an ideal trip. He seems to have improved since going over fences this season. However, he did fall on his first chase start and still needed the experience second time out when plugging on into 3rd over an insufficient 2 mile trip. It was much more promising next time, though, as he stayed on well to go down a mere 3/4l in 3rd at Uttoxeter with the form having some substance. Was sent 5f up in trip last time out and it didn't seem to work. Even still, the front two were well clear and both look ahead of the handicapper so perhaps that had an equal effect on the margin of defeat. Still, back down to this trip which saw his best performance will suit, and the race isn't the best. Should be capable of a big run.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.50 Huntingdon - 3pts win Star Galaxy @ 7/2 (Bet365) This is a poor handicap chase but I think Star Galaxy's second run for the David Evans yard will see him in the winner's enclosure. This yard is going okay and this horse should come on for his first run of the season last time out when a good 3rd in a race which looks quite solid. The other protagonists in this race have form with not quite so much substance, in my opinion, and will struggle to hold my selection here. This horse was inconsistent, but with ability, when running for Dai Burchell, and has won off marks higher than this (especially with Peter Hatton's claim today), and shaped as if all ability was in tact last time out when behind Arctic Ben on heavy ground. He does enjoy cut so today's ground suits and that form of last time has been franked. Bohemian Rock's winning form doesn't look as strong, and needs to improve on his jumping from last time out, whilst Kinkeel is inconsistent and possibly not quite good enough to take this.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 4 out of my last 7 NH selections have fallen. Great for confidence.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread How I needed that change of luck... Did it very well. Just a shame the other two fell quite early.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 4.40 Wolverhampton - 1.5pts e/w Anjomarba @ 14/1 (Skybet) I don't think this race has a great deal of substance to it, with Cheers' winning form coming in a poor race, and Dashing Eddie might find this further hike in the weights too much to deal with. Transmit is slow and Pytheas rarely wins and will struggle off this mark without a claimer on board in my opinion. Only Ten Per Cent has a chance but is obviously modest having been beaten by horses raced in the 40s in a maiden last time out. Anjomarbais clearly capable of winning this race on past form and is well-handicapped having won off 66 twice before. He runs off 59 today and this represents a drop in class. However, he has never won over 7f, although he does seem to get it, and can get away with it in a race as poor as this. He was running soundly here in December until upped to a too-testing 9f on the 30th. He could only manage 8th last time out but was only beaten 5l or so by a field of decent handicappers at the level. He should find things easier today, from stall one, and has the visor applied for the first time to bring out a little bit more ability.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 5.10 Wolverhampton - 2pts win Mr Skipiton @ 9/2 (Bet365) This horse has to overcome a wide draw here, but otherwise has the credentials to win the race. He is second-favourite in the market behind a horse with just 1 win from 29 starts and is worth taking on. Mr Skipiton is generally reliable and has won 3 times from marks equal or higher to the one he runs off today. He returns from a 95 day absence for his new yard in a weak affair and showed good form in his final seven races for Brian McMath - including over course and distance. Tom Mclaughlin has won twice on the horse and has run well fresh on both previous tries after a break.