BBOTD ~ Saturday

[ballyoisin_bomb]

swiss dream 315 york eway 10/1 PP halfsister to 2009 winner and a sprinter clearly progressing when seen wining handily enough lto. should be well in the mix against a lot of exposed types

[hereforthep]

Re: bbotd sat 15:30 Sandown Night Carnation - 1pt win @ 13/8 >Bet365 Night Carnation should run well here winning two handicaps already this year and has been too strong for 3 of the rivals in the past has the best form on offer in the race and should improve well for the trip

[cc75]

Re: bbotd sat 3.20 Chester: Julius Geezer 1pt win @ 10/1 Bet365 BOG Only win to date was over 5f here in a conditions stakes last May before going on to run with great credit in a York 5f listed event next time up. Three efforts this season in handicap company have been sorely disappointing including when upped to this trip LTO. Has another go at 7f today and on breeding there should be no issue with the distance and as a consequence of poor handicap runs, rating has plummeted to a decent mark of 90. Stable in fine fettle just now and must have a chance here.

[fintron]

Re: bbotd sat 3.15 York Great handicap in prospect here. Seal Rock looks the class act in the race and a potential Group horse in the making. Acclamazing was unlucky last time and is still improving and should be thereabouts and Swiss Dream won well at Newmarket last time and is on the upgrade. Chances can be given to so many but at the prices COCKTAIL CHARLIE might be worth a little blast. There is no doubt he hasn't lived up to his billing this term, having progessed nicely as a juvenile last term, however, Tim Easterby seems to be running into a rich vein of form, had a couple of winners at York today, and this one may have been written off too early. He's only had one run in handicap company and on both starts this term has looked short of pace for 5f. He steps up to 6f here and has gone well at the track in the past, a head second in a novice contest here last year. Bit to prove but rates better than the bare form of his last run and 28/1 seems overpriced. 28/1 Ladbrokes, 1 pt win

[cc75]

Re: bbotd sat Haha Fin - im on for a "Charlie" double tomorrow: Charlie Cool in 2.40 and Cocktail Charlie in 3.15. If they both come in, i'll be Champagne Charlie!! ;) Good luck mate :ok

[fintron]

Re: bbotd sat

Haha Fin - im on for a "Charlie" double tomorrow: Charlie Cool in 2.40 and Cocktail Charlie in 3.15. If they both come in, i'll be Champagne Charlie!! ;) Good luck mate :ok

Stranger things have happened!! Fingers crossed, and best of luck with your nap as well.

[Stevet1859]

Re: bbotd sat 2:10 York: Defence of Duress 1pt win 11/2 Betfred Defence of Duress looks worth a interest in his first all age handicap getting a 15lb weight for age allowance. In recent times three year olds have a good record and Tom Tate and Miss Cooper took this race a couple of years ago. That was one of only two sucesses for the jockey and Tom Tate is the only trainer she has ridden a winner for. Defence of Duress ran pretty well on his seasonal debut behind Sud Pacific at this course, and while he was three lengths behind Halifax last time, he should just about be spot on today. By Motivator and Montjeu this mile and a half should present no problems.

[Falbrav]

Re: bbotd sat TARTAN TRIP 2.40 York 0.5 points each way Needs to run to best, but more than capable of that with things seemingly in favour. Enough pace to the race to suit and would be more consistent than most. Up in the weights a little, but still has a chance of going close if on top form. The price is there to take the chance. 10/1 Victor Chandler BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: bbotd sat 3-50 York - Sea Moon - Back Looked a class act last year and makes his seasonal reappearance here. Could very well turn out to be in a different league to this lot and I expect him to make his class count here before going on to bigger and better things 1pt win @ Evens William Hill BOG

[Lars]

Re: bbotd sat 14:25 Sandown My Delirium has run five times to date. Three of these runs have been absolutely dreadful, and two have been very decent. They’re all linked by the fact that the two better efforts have been on softer ground and she’ll get that today at Sandown by the looks of things and even though she’ll have to bounce back from a dreadful run on her seasonal reappearance, I believe she has a fair bit of ability and Ralph Beckett especially is a dab hand with fillies. She had a pretty low-key start to her career, finishing well back in her first two starts in maidens. They came on fairly fast turf and the all-weather and she was beaten a fair way out in them both. She went off at odds of 80/1 for her third outing, in what looked a competitive Newmarket maiden over 6f. That day it was good to soft ground and she seemed to absolutely relish it, winning in a nice fashion. She finished ahead of a couple of decent sorts, including horses now rated 85 and 78. She looked that she’d easily get another furlong but for her next outing she was kept at 6f and sent to a Listed contest in France. Again, it was on soft ground and she ran with a lot of promise by the literal reading of the form. She wasn’t far behind the very decent Morache Music who’s the yard-stick for the UK form and from the comments of that race, 7f should be well within her scope. On seasonal reappearance almost a month ago, she was sent off 20/1 for what looks a similar race to this over 7f. The ground conditions were fairly quick that day, and from the start, My Delirium never travelled at all and was eased in the closing stages. Of course, she’s entitled to build upon that effort and improve today anyhow, but the fact is that her efforts on anything other than soft ground have been so dismal, that I do think that the ground was the main factor for her poor performance, instead of anything untoward with the horse or the fact she wasn’t good enough. She isn’t a decent performer on quicker ground, but cut in the turf seems to bring a lot more out of her and with the rain that Sandown has had over Friday, that’s exactly what she’ll get. Drawn nicely in Stall 1, she’s a huge price and perhaps rightly so. She does however have form on softer ground which many of these do not, and her trainer is top-class with fillies of this nature. It wouldn’t be a great surprise to see a big step up in standard, especially as she’s been dropped 3lbs in the weights. It may well be the ground dries too much for her to be 100% effective, or that in fact she’s too high in the weights to win this race anyway. The current market signals don’t look too positive, but I’ll take my chances on her, and I won’t be surprised to outrun her price tag convincingly, especially if the word “soft” appears in the ground description. My Delirium; EW @ 33/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Monterosso]

Re: bbotd sat 2:10 York - Embsay Crag - e/w @ 25/1 (Betfred) This is a Lady Amateur Riders' Handicap so anything could happen, but Embsay Crag is a crazy price at 28/1. He hasn't won for nearly 2 years but overall, his form is more than solid and in that time he's only had 11 outings, which isn't excessive by any means. Also, he's placed 5 times in that time and has a couple of 4th placed efforts to his name too. Given the nature of this race, there's some pretty average jockeys on board here. Serena Brotherton is not one that fits into that category and she should be a massive plus to Embsay Crag in a race like this. The horse is pretty uncomplicated (bar a tendency to miss the kick) and he just gallops all day, so getting him into a rhythm may be her toughest task here. Her record is top notch though and she's got so much experience, having had 266 rides on the flat in a riding career that goes back to 1994. From those rides, Serena has a wonderful 15% strike-rate after 41 winners, 38 seconds and 17 thirds. She also shows a 27% ROI (+£70 LSP) and is clearly a jockey to keep on the right side of in these contests. She's also had 3 winners and a second from her last 5 rides, so confidence should be sky-high to say the least. Back to the horse - Embsay Crag has plenty of form that would entitle him to get involved here, especially a 5l second to Dangerous Midge over 1m 2f at Doncaster. That horse has won G3 & G1 events since and is currently rated 122. Whilst he obviously improved out of all recognition (won off 88 that day), my selection is now rated 2lbs lower than that outing and would of got closer than 5 lengths with some luck in running. It was a year ago though, but Kate Walton's 5 year old has come back showing plenty of his old gusto and should be coming to hand now after 3 runs this season (valid excuses last twice). His second (off 1lb lower) behind Arlequin on seasonal debut is another piece worthwhile form that would see him go close here, all going well. Easy tracks seem to suit Embsay Crag perfectly and he's also posted his career best effort at this track when finishing third of 19 over 1m 2f. He had a worse draw that day than he does today and also blew the start, so that was a brilliant effort to fly home late in a similarly competitive contest. He also gets on well with claimers and seems to be very uncomplicated. He handles all ground and despite having done his winning over 7f and 1m 2f, he stays this trip comfortably and remains fairly unexposed over it. His form in C3 contests reads ; 1-4-2-2, which is very good and he's only 3lbs higher than that win at this level. He also has a good cruising speed and if he didn't miss the break so often, I'd imagine he'd have another few victories on the slate. Plenty of form can't be taken too literally in these contests, but he's got one of the best women jockeys on board, has conditions to suit and also gets a solid pace to run at (loads of front-runners). If Embsay Crag could just break well and settle in behind the leaders, I'd consider him to be worthy of a 8-10/1 price-tag. He's got a plum draw in stall 3 and comes here on the back of some good efforts. The course was against him last time out and he still ran a game 4th. He had a terrible draw over this C&D before that and showed a good attitude to plug on despite never having a chance given how things went and on seasonal debut, he ran into traffic problems when second behind Arlequin. His attitude is faultless and with a bit of luck, he could outrun his price easily. The trainer/jockey combination reads 1 win from 1 runner and the only worry I have is the trainers lack of flat winners. I don't really know a whole lot about her but this is her best flat horse and I'd imagine this contest has been targeted as a winnable one. Medium each-way stakes and bar disaster, I think one of the places is achievable at the very least. He's a huge price, and wrongfully so in my opinion. Hopefully he'll go well.

[Tull]

Re: bbotd sat 2.10 York - Defence of Duress - 1pt win 5/1 Totesport Improver and racing of a light weight. Conditions shouldnt be a problem and Trainer won this in 09. Strongly run race should be of a benefit

[andyjkmak]

Re: bbotd sat 4.05 Sandown Macdillon looks in need of this drop in trip as he has struggled to see out the extra furlong lately. Only win came over this C/D and with the stable doing really well I am hopeful of this one going very close from a good draw. First run should have sharpened him up and this jockey knows him. 1 Pt win 6/1 Corals

[punterpete]

Re: bbotd sat 3.15 York Elusive Pince win 10/1 Bet 365 I have been following this one trained by David Baron very closely this season. Both runs have come at Ripon and both have with resulted in Elusve Prince coming home in front Was sent off a shot priced favourite in a hnicap last time out and justified that with a strong performance. Looks a very impressive type with much more improvement to come and despite the 8lbs rise in the weights can be one of the major players here.

[twinny]

Re: bbotd sat 0.5 e/w green Manalishi 17.30 york 25/1 william hill a hard race to call but i will try 50p e/w on green manalishi to at least grab a place,carrying 9.5 which is 7lbs less than carrying last time and a weight green manalishi is well capable of winning with,green manalishi has won 14 times,with 13 places also must have decent e/w claims

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD ~ Saturday Bath 5.10 Tt's Dream win - 10/1 Bet365 Boyle Lads Paddy Tt's Dream has shown improvement with the blinkers and ran really well lto. Traveled like a dream, but jockey probably took it up too early. 2nd and 3rd from the race have won since and dropped 2lbs, I think he has a good chance today.

[anokazr]

Re: BBOTD ~ Saturday My Delirium 2.25 Sandown 33/1 0.5ew Amazing price considering the ground and trip look to suit perfectly and the two highest rated runners have yet to do anything much on turf. I feel like beckett is due a win and follow crowley, think this filly has a decent chance of placing:hope

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD ~ Saturday 810 Lingfield:eek: Archie Rice EW (10/1 Boyles) Like the chance of Archie Rice here back on the AW, was too free last time under Dettori and never had a chance. Down to a mark of 66 for this average contest and the last time he won here was off ......66. George Baker got on with him well when second around here and as far as i can see all the opposition are hold up merchants so he should get a nice uncontested lead and hopefully kick off the last bend and his stamina should see him home, nice price for an EW bet in case he gets collared but should be in the frame.

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD ~ Saturday Striding Edge - Lingfield 8.10 (1pt win 15-2 WH BOG) Sorry, late one for me. A 5YO who has had 30 runs, but very unexposed at 10f with only two starts over this trip, both of which were pretty good. Changed hands over the winter and has had four runs so far this season, most recently three lengths third over 10f at Leicester. Probably better on the AW, including a runner-up to Shallow Bay on his first try over 10f last October. Looks well handicapped - has been dropped 3lbs this year to 65, and won off 74 in March 2010 over 8f at Kempton.

[Irishbugger]

Re: BBOTD ~ Saturday 2.55pm @ Sandown 'Mon Cadeaux' 15/2 (Bet365) Horse is ion decent form, ran well last time out when just pipped by today's favourite but I think thius track will suit better and there's a few lb's in it in favour of this horse today. Form of that race looks strong with the 3rd horse winning a conditions race next time. In an open looking handicap I like this price. 1 point win

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD ~ Saturday 3.30 Sandown Night Carnation looks massive price at 13/8 in my opinion. She looks a class act having won her last handicap on penultimate start very comfortably with second winning next time out. She then went on to beat several of these last time out in a Conditions Race. Didnt exactly do that in the style perhaps you would have expected but she showed a good attitude to secure the victory which has to stand her in good stead and these all now have to pull something extra to beat her and she clearly has some room for improvement and looks to be going the right way for a yard that have done little wrong lately and the sounder surface will be in her favour. 1pt win Night Carnation 13/8 bet365

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD ~ Saturday H4.15 Weetfromthechaff 1pt Win 5/1 Stan James It's a little frustrating that some of the bigger prices have gone on this but on the plus side it looks like a gamble is gathering steam and it might even go off around 3/1. The horse is one of only 2 c&d winners in the field and is only 1lb higher than that win where the comment was "headway to track leader 2 out, led last, ridden and stayed on flat". Todays race therefore looks well within its range and the stable jockey is back on again today which is a major plus, I think this indicates that a big run is expected.

[Quackers]

Re: BBOTD ~ Saturday 5.30 York Ishetoo 20/1 e/w StanJames This horse often runs well at York and he did make an encouraging reappearance at Redcar a couple of weeks ago. Ishetoo was outpaced on his return but stayed on well without the jockey having to get serious with the horse. That run will have brought the horse on and he should be cherry ripe for this race. He looks well handicapped on old form and is recapturing that form, he is entitled to run a massive race here. The step back up to 6f also looks in the horses favour and the ground should pose no problems.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD ~ Saturday Meetings Man 2.10 York. 0.5 points each way. Pretty consistent, although has shown he can put in a poor one, and does have trip and ground to suit. A mark of 74 holds up well in context with the recent form of others coming into the race, so no reason why he shouldn't be able to be involved in the finish. Appreciates this track, too. Bet365 14/1 (bog)

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD ~ Saturday 3.15 York Acclamazing e/w 7/1 This looks a very hot contest but Acclamazing has been impressive in his last few runs and was unlucky not to win last time out. With a little luck in running here, he should go close. Botti yard are in decent form and will want to go to Royal Ascot with a winner or 2 under their belts.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD ~ Saturday 2.25 Sandown - 1pt win Wiqaaya @ 10/1 (Bet365) - BOG Tricky handicap in which plenty of runners appear as potential improvers, but I think Wiqaaya sets a good standard for all runners to beat. Sound Amigo may well be 3 from 3, but I couldn't be on at 7/2 in a tougher and more competitive race. Even if his latest win is working out well, I'd be concerned in this field. May well win, but I'd only be tempted at 5/1+. Anoint is underpriced also in my eyes. Obvious potential improver, but I'm not convinced he merits a mark of 82 with Wiqaaya only on 84. I think the Ed Dunlop trained filly is fairly handicapped. She has form tied in with some of the hotter fillies at the moment, having finished 3rd to Sweet Cecily and Ragsah on debut - rated 98 and 100 respectively now. Travelled well on her second start, but again found a nice type of Richard Hannon's too strong (by a neck) in Face Reality - now rated 92. A mark of 84 for those two runs and an easy pipe-opener at 1/14 at Wolverhampton in late March looks very fair to me and even though she beat nothing that day, she confirmed that she was useful, and got a win under her belt. Does take on the boys today but I think she's up to a huge run off such a mark. Ed Dunlop is in solid form at the minute and I'd be surprised if this filly doesn't run a very big race at a rewarding price.

[yorkshire punter]

Re: BBOTD ~ Saturday york 315 DESERT LAW 1pt win 6/1 bet365 BPG highly regarded sprinter that should hopefully go one better than on seasonal debut. stable really do believe that they have a very smart one who could well be contesting group races before the end of the year. must therefore go close today if thats the case.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD ~ Saturday Leic 6.30 - Six Wives - win at 6/4 BOG bet365 In cracking form having won it's last 2 races with todays jockey up Is the only CD winner in the field and this race looks easier than the one it won over CD last time out Small field today and i fancy my horse will have the speed in the finish to outrun his rivals, most of whom look like they need a bit of a stiffer test, maybe soft ground or stiffer track or 6 furlongs to produce their best

[zoolander]

Re: BBOTD ~ Saturday Lingfield 6:40 Doctor Hillary 12-1 BEt365 (BOG) 1 POINT WIN C&D winner winning here exactly this time last year off a mark of 60, running of 59 today. Some similarities like it was its 2nd time out last year and this is its second run this year, the win last year was on GS but has acted well on good ground so that is not an issue. Dane o Neil booked which has to be a big positive and a lot of these look exposed, stall 10 is a pretty good draw.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: BBOTD ~ Saturday 5.30 YORK LUJEANIE 100/1 0.5 E/W BET365 IMO it is not without a chance in this. Stable are out of form at the mo but will bounce back and most likely with a biggie. Lujeanie won a C3 at Newmarket last July off 2lb lower and has went close on the AW a couple of times last winter. Don't think he should be this price as may still have a bit of improvement in him and with a brave few dead wood in this could go well if wound up for first run back. 6F is ideal for this horse and is well drawn. __________________ Chas & Ted 6/4