jtw1 Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Been on holiday all week and for the first time bought the Racing Ahead magazine for something to pass a bit of time with and found an interesting article from Colin Magee inside . Basically it questions whether some runners which are withdrawn as non runners are done so because of the draw bias they had to face . The 2 tracks in question were CHESTER and BEVERLEY , probably the 2 course's with the most percieved track bias over 5-7f in the UK. He listed 13 declared non-runners from last season at Chester who were to have ran from high numbered stalls who next time out [ within 14 days ] were found to have had 4 winners amonst them @ 4/1, 13/2 , 10/1 and 10/3. Also there were two 2nds and a couple of 3rd's , all at EW prices where at least your stake would have been returned. The thinking behind this is that these horses are considered 'fit to win' but due to the track bias that winning chance is negated by the draw they were given therefore the horse is declared a non runner and is held back for another prize to come along [ within 14 days to ensure fitness is still a factor ] So with all that in mind i had a look back to last weeks CHESTER and BEVERLY meetings . 2 stood out from Chester , SIX OF HEARTS was due to run from stall 17 in what turned out to be a 14 runner race. DAISYCLIPPER was due to run from stall 13 in what turned out to be a 12 runner race . Over at BEVERLY , PLUMSUM was due to run from stall 10 , 9 eventually ran . PLUMSUM does not have any entries in the coming days so is probaly best ignored , However SIX OF HEARTS has been declared at the 4 days stage to run in a NAVAN Handicap on Sunday and even better we have DAISYCLIPPER declared on Saturday at Doncaster's evening meeting , 7.40 , and interestingly P HANAGHAN has been booked by trainer ANN DUFFIELD for whom Hanaghan has a 26% strke rate for . Therefore BET No 1 is 10pt win DAISYCLIPPER in the 7.40 at Donny. Of course there won't be too many selections during the season but as long as we can pin-point some winners , or even decent EW shots , i think we can hopefully show a profit come November :hope . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals looks very interesting jtw1,on the back of your write up im going to do something that breaks all my gambling rules and back your selections before this system has become a proven one(i think it will)(only for a very small percentage of a betting bank) best of luck with this jtw1:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted May 14, 2011 Author Share Posted May 14, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals Backed from 33's down to a starting price of 16's and so close !!! Finished 2nd and really thought we were off to a cracking start , hope some were smart enough to have an EW bet .... i wasn't unfortunately .....:wall Bet 2 - 5pt EW SIX OF HEARTS in the 2.45 @ Navan on Sunday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
south_eastern_ram Posted May 14, 2011 Share Posted May 14, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals Forgot to comment on this the other day, think there might be something in this, good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ONEDUNME Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals Didn't see the race but was on it each way mate - thanks:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted May 16, 2011 Author Share Posted May 16, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals A promising start imo . DAISYCUTTER - 2nd @ 16/1 [ backed down from 33's ] SIX OF HEARTS - 5th @ 11/2 Fav [opened at 8's] As we can see both were well supported in the market and SIX OF HEARTS was only a sh-hd behind the 4th , just missing out on an EW payout. Looked at his form and it did seem a strange decision to run him over 5f when he had done all his winning over 7f ! I see he has an entry in the G3 Ballycorus Stakes at Leopardstown at the end of this month , a race he won last season after running 4th over 6f . Could be worth keeping an eye on if he takes his chance . Next meeting to look out for is CHESTER on Saturday coming [where DAISYCUTTER has an entry in the 2.25] , followed by BEVERLEY on Weds 25th . Anyone think we should consider any other courses on either side of the Irish Sea where there is a significant draw bias over 5/6 or 7 f ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
south_eastern_ram Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals 6f at Catterick, 7f at Thirsk and 1m at Pontefract just off the top of my head. Dunno if there's such a strong bias to withdraw horses though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted May 17, 2011 Author Share Posted May 17, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals Taking the advice from drawbias.com i've had a better look at the 3 mentioned above as well as every other course . Here's what i consider to be worthwhile considering. Firstly the 6f at Catterick does appear to have a 'significant' bias but this is at the mercy of the going with High being favoured on Soft and Low on Good or firmer. Epsom's 7f favours Low Ripon's 8f has a 'massive bias' towards High *changed from low due to re-numbering. Thirks 5f favours those drawn High but only when the going is good or faster. Ponte's 8f doesn't warrant any consideration according to the site Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals I'd have thought Ponty at 5/6 furlongs should have a draw bias for low numbers as it's round a dog leg Kempton 5f has a bias for low numbers I think what you need is sprint tracks that go round a bend or a dog leg.........maybe Windsor as well ? And i suspect all these 'bend biases' would be more pronounced in big fields. In a small field even the widest draw would still be near the bend rail but in a big field it could be miles away ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ONEDUNME Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals I'm afraid this is a sort of after-eventing tactical withdrawal and I'm kind of looking for answers for it. Sky Calling was withdrawn from a 2 mile class four chase on Monday at Newton Abbott and then turned out the very next day at Southwell and won a two mike class four hurdle race at odds on. Granted the going at Southwell was good and the day before had been good to firm - good in places, but the horse had ran and won on good to firm ground. I suppose their excuse would be that it can't handle good to firm ground over fences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted May 20, 2011 Author Share Posted May 20, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals I'm afraid this is a sort of after-eventing tactical withdrawal and I'm kind of looking for answers for it. Sky Calling was withdrawn from a 2 mile class four chase on Monday at Newton Abbott and then turned out the very next day at Southwell and won a two mike class four hurdle race at odds on. Granted the going at Southwell was good and the day before had been good to firm - good in places, but the horse had ran and won on good to firm ground. I suppose their excuse would be that it can't handle good to firm ground over fences. Would be interesting to see what the excuse was for the withdrawal on the Monday ?? Anyway back to business and the main races i'll be looking at are those metioned in the article , namely 5/6/7f races at Chester / Beverley. In addition the 7f at EPSOM where High No's are disadvantaged. RIPON'S 8f where again it's Low No's that are to be avoided. THIRSK'S 5f is a distance where LOW No's are to be avoided but only when it's Good going or better. Also will highlight the reason's , thanks to the BHA website , for the withdrawals and i think we'll be looking for the self-certs rather than vets certs but it'll be worthwhile highlighting both until a pattern emerges. And to start we have 2 nr's in the 2.25 at Chester and our friend DASIYCLIPPER is one [ drawn 7 of 9] and a self-cert , CALAF [ drawn 6 of 9] has a vets cert.. In the 3.25 TIGHT LIPPED has a self cert and was due to run from stall 7 in a 10 runner race while PITT RIVERS [vets cert] was to emerge from stall 9 . Therefore within the next 14 days were looking for DAISYCLIPPER and TIGHT LIPPED running . Also CALAF and PITT RIVERS are also on the radar but you'd think imagine the Vets cert would ensure they don't appear too soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris 10b Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals Think this might have something going for it, so will follow it with interest. Just one thing about Daisyclipper he has got a vets cert (lame) for his withdrawl today. That is according to the BHB site. All the best with this system lets hope it picks out some nice priced winners.:cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avongirl Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals I believe you have to get a vet's cert unless you have declared with a proviso or the ground has changed significantly, otherwise you get fined. Something along those lines anyway. You need to have a friendly vet. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ONEDUNME Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals I believe you have to get a vet's cert unless you have declared with a proviso or the ground has changed significantly' date=' otherwise you get fined. Something along those lines anyway. You need to have a friendly vet. ;)[/quote'] Well I don't think any of those happened in the case of Sky Calling so who knows what went on.:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted May 21, 2011 Author Share Posted May 21, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals Think this might have something going for it' date=' so will follow it with interest. Just one thing about Daisyclipper he has got a vets cert (lame) for his withdrawl today. That is according to the BHB site. All the best with this system lets hope it picks out some nice priced winners.:cheers[/quote'] Quite correct mate , got things mixed up as DAISYCLIPPER has a vets while CALAF has the self cert . So CALAF is the one to take note of . Also there's beena few withdrawals at Chester - PRINCE OF VASA - 1.50 - 'TRAVEL !!' is down as the official reason , maybe the fact he was due to start from stall 12 in a 12 runner 6f sprint was more to do with it. FEAR NOTHING - 1.50 - Self Cert . Drawn 9 in the 12 runner race. GRAND STITCH - 5.10 - Self Cert , Drawn 10 in an 11 runner 6f race. All of these are being noted if they run in the next 14 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals *review of the original system considered only the extreme stalls draw so with that in mind - Selections ---------- DAISYCUTTER - 2nd @ 16/1 SIX OF HEARTS - 5th @ 11/2 PRINCE OF VASA - Holds entries at Newcastle [Thurs] and 2 at Catterick on Saturday . GRAND STITCH - No entries so far. *3 races over the 8f at Ripon tomorrow , keep an eye on those non-runners drawn very HIGH [due to renumbering ] and BEVERLEY are racing on Wednesday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris 10b Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals *review of the original system considered only the extreme stalls draw so with that in mind - Selections ---------- DAISYCUTTER - 2nd @ 16/1 SIX OF HEARTS - 5th @ 11/2 PRINCE OF VASA - Holds entries at Newcastle [Thurs] and 2 at Catterick on Saturday . GRAND STITCH - No entries so far. *3 races over the 8f at Ripon tomorrow , keep an eye on those non-runners drawn very HIGH [due to renumbering ] and BEVERLEY are racing on Wednesday Hi JY just wondering would the following two horses be selections from tonights meeting at Thirsk. Both were withdrawn due to the going,Hypnosis drawn 4 and Nomoreblondes drawn 3. 8.30 5 Furlong. All the best :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals Hi JY just wondering would the following two horses be selections from tonights meeting at Thirsk. Both were withdrawn due to the going' date='Hypnosis drawn 4 and Nomoreblondes drawn 3. 8.30 5 Furlong. All the best :ok[/quote'] Yeah i noticed those earlier on and thats what caused me to re-read the article Chris . The races that the author highlighted were where the most extreme one or two stalls [ be they high or low] were involved . I decided to try and stick to that criteria so i've left out those 2 . I see the 1st and 2nd were drawn 10 and 11 !! Btw they were both withdrawn due to the 'Ground' and looking at the form of both they have shown a distinct liking for G/F which is wasn't tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris 10b Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals Yeah i noticed those earlier on and thats what caused me to re-read the article Chris . The races that the author highlighted were where the most extreme one or two stalls [ be they high or low] were involved . I decided to try and stick to that criteria so i've left out those 2 . I see the 1st and 2nd were drawn 10 and 11 !! Btw they were both withdrawn due to the 'Ground' and looking at the form of both they have shown a distinct liking for G/F which is wasn't tonight. Cheers mate, good luck with this. I'm away for three weeks now with work and hols so I will hopefully be able to keep up to speed with your system. Lets hope there are a few nice priced winners, All the best Chris:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals PRINCE OF VASA runs in the 3.00 at CATTERICK on Saturday :hope BEVERLEY takes place tomorrow so we'll keep an eye on those HIGH drawn who are declared NR's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted May 29, 2011 Author Share Posted May 29, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals PRINCE OF VASA - unp @ 22/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals GRAND STITCH runs in the 1.40 at Nottingham on Weds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals GRAND STITCH runs in the 1.40 at Nottingham on Weds Unp Beverley run on Weds and Chester on Saturday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals CRIMSON KNOT was a nr in the 5.05 at Chester on Saturday , was due to run from stall 9 in 9 runner race over 5f . Self - Cert was issued. Down to run in the 3.25 at Ayr on Saturday ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 25, 2011 Author Share Posted June 25, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals A few withdrawn from the last at Chester last night , the most notable being MASTER OF DANCE who was due to run from stall 16 in a 16 runner [ ironically the winner came from stall 17 , the change in ground to soft probably helped] It was self-certed [ not eaten up ] and had been declared a non runner well before racing started. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 27, 2011 Author Share Posted June 27, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals A few withdrawn from the last at Chester last night ' date=' the most notable being MASTER OF DANCE who was due to run from stall 16 in a 16 runner [ ironically the winner came from stall 17 , the change in ground to soft probably helped'] It was self-certed [ not eaten up ] and had been declared a non runner well before racing started. Entered in the 3..0 at BEVERLEY on Saturday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 1, 2011 Author Share Posted July 1, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals Entered in the 3..0 at BEVERLEY on Saturday Runs tomorrow and is currently outsider of 8 . Withdrawn with self-cert last Friday . Top rated RPR . This will be his 2nd run for P SALMON after joing the stable from J GIVEN , the 1st was after a 2 month break . Providing there are no NR's he could well be worth an EW interest . This evening at Beverley , WELCOME APPROACH was due to run from stall 17 in a 17 runner race [ 5f] , reason for his withdrawal given was the Going , which is puzzling as he has won on G/F which was the official going tonight !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris 10b Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals Runs tomorrow and is currently outsider of 8 . Withdrawn with self-cert last Friday . Top rated RPR . This will be his 2nd run for P SALMON after joing the stable from J GIVEN , the 1st was after a 2 month break . Providing there are no NR's he could well be worth an EW interest . This evening at Beverley , WELCOME APPROACH was due to run from stall 17 in a 17 runner race [ 5f] , reason for his withdrawal given was the Going , which is puzzling as he has won on G/F which was the official going tonight !! All the best with this one JTW. Iwill have a few bob ew if the eight run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 2, 2011 Author Share Posted July 2, 2011 Re: Tactical withdrawals This evening at Beverley , WELCOME APPROACH was due to run from stall 17 in a 17 runner race [ 5f] , reason for his withdrawal given was the Going , which is puzzling as he has won on G/F which was the official going tonight !! Runs in the 6.00 at Carlisle tonight ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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