richard-westwood Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings how can you say she wasnt the fastest filly of last year ? she had recorded the fastest time on a track ....faster than white moonstone but someone said yeah but white moonstone could have run faster but the fact is she didnt and blue bunting had proven she could run a time that fast ......no one else had even come close apart from hooray over 6f .........im not making it up thats the facts .for a 2yr old to record the time she did was an exceptional performance (in the maiden not listed race ) and was the reason i ran out and backed her as soon as possible ....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings thanks everyone.......i have to face it the form of these guineas races has been a mess and the times even more so .........im totally in the dark but as the times are slow it does look like frankels time wasnt that bad after all (shock ) .........but the jurys out :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zenyatta Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings how can you say she wasnt the fastest filly of last year ? she had recorded the fastest time on a track ....faster than white moonstone but someone said yeah but white moonstone could have run faster but the fact is she didnt and blue bunting had proven she could run a time that fast ......no one else had even come close apart from hooray over 6f .........im not making it up thats the facts .for a 2yr old to record the time she did was an exceptional performance (in the maiden not listed race ) and was the reason i ran out and backed her as soon as possible ....... She was over 2 seconds slow at Doncaster, and shes over 2 seconds slow today. So she has not had to improve. Reasons shes Won today... 1...Goes well on the track, C/D Winner last year. 2...She handled the Ground. 3...Shes got stamina in her pedigree. 4...Todays field had loads of non stayers and horses that struggled on the fast ground. Together who finished second had previously run over 10f at Newmarket and this shows me stamina played a part in todays result. People have mentioned a headwind, no idea if there was or not. If you think shes the fastest 3 year old filly, lump on her for the Oaks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings The headwind was a good bit stronger today that it was yesterday, according to Richard Hughes anyways. The ground was also a bit slower I'd imagine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zenyatta Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings The headwind was a good bit stronger today that it was yesterday' date=' according to Richard Hughes anyways. The ground was also a bit slower I'd imagine.[/quote'] If the headwind was stronger the ground would be faster "drying out", seems the headwind played a big part then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elchubb Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings If the headwind was stronger the ground would be faster "drying out"' date=' seems the headwind played a big part then.[/quote'] They had 6mm of rain overnight so that might of softened the ground a little! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings Amazing stuff Richard :clap when she came storming up that rail she always going to win. Pleased for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings :notworthy Top Call Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings They had 6mm of rain overnight so that might of softened the ground a little! It certainly didnt rain about here last night, they watered newmarket and myself near newmarket havnt seen rain for well over a month now!! The headwind has been strong today and it would have certainly taken to moisture out of the ground again and wouldnt be surprised if the ground was faster today 6mm wouldnt take long to come back out of the ground in todays conditions! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings Sorry Richard, but the reason for Blue Bunting's win today is because she improved, being one of immense potential. Not - that she put up an excellent time performance at two. She didn't, that is a "fact". Did Blue Bunting put up a good time? I've had a closer look. Times compared to Racing Post Standard at Doncaster on Saturday 14th Aug: 1:50 7f (A class 5 3yo+ handicap) 1m23.21 faster than standard by 1.79 seconds 2:20 6f (Class 5 3 & 4yo maiden) 1m09.89 fast by 1.51 2:50 1m (Class 5 2yo maiden) BLUE BUNTING 1m37.39 fast by1.11 3:25 7f (Class 5 3yo+ Handicap) 1m23.04 fast by 1.96 4:00 7f (Class 2 4y0+ Handicap) 1m21.92 fast by 3.08 4:35 5f (Class 3 3yo+ Handicap) 57.31sec fast by 1.19 5:10 1m6f (Class 4 3yo+ Handicap 3m06.07 slow by 0.27 5:45 1m2f (Class 5 Apprentice 4yo+ Handicap) 2m07.51 slow by 0.21 So in fact Blue Bunting's time was a slow one compared to most other races on the day. Best time by far put up in the Class 2 handicap. The official going was GOOD (GOOD-FIRM IN PLACES) although taking all times in to account suggests it was even firmer. Indeed Timeform's unbiased assessment in the Timeform Perspective is GOOD-FIRM. Timeform's assessment of Blue Bunting is a good one (for a maiden). However, her TIME can only in their opinion be rated 26lbs below what the actual FORM is worth. To be worth anything, times must be compared first and foremost with those on the day of race. Going reports by Clerks of the course can mislead punters in to thinking the time is a good one. Punters also have to look at the form. It is true there were 11 lengths back to the third, but this was only a class 5 maiden. Is Midnight Caller capable of being placed in the 1000? The fact she was only 1/2 a length behind Blue Bunting tells you the time can NOT be "outstanding". ie it is not a "top rated" time performance for the best 3 year old fillies mile race of the season. Well done for backing Blue Bunting today, but your reasoning for backing her was all wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zenyatta Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings They had 6mm of rain overnight so that might of softened the ground a little! The lad from Newmarket in the post above said it didnt rain last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings blue buntings +1.11 (thats faster than standard) for a 2 yr old......you cant compare that to the rest of the card as they were all older horses .....she could have been up to a stone inferior to other horses running that day as it was only her 2nd ever racecourse run . a +1.11 would actually be a 171 on my chart ......i downgraded her by approx 5 lengths to account for what i considered to be faster than average times and she came out at an adjusted 160 which like for like would approx mean she could run 0.5+ on the standard which was still better than most of these had done and her price was ridiculously high at the time i backed her .......thats it in a nutshell ......there was a direct form comparison with white moonshell ,both had run on course ,dist ,and going and even if your opinion was white moonstones run was better then blue bunting was 2nd rated and still warranted max respect .....cant see how i can be clearer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings i think they overwatered the course ,then it rained 6mm during the night then they stuck the going stick in and thought s**t we've knackered it (tell then its good in places ) then the grass was really thick and bushy on course (did you see it ? !!!!!!) even the clerk commented on the grass .....and when the horses ran on it it was like running on my living room shag pile and hence actually ran good/sft ......oh and it was windy which totally finished em off :lol:lol:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlowRock Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings Thank You, read just your first post yesterday and backed Blue Bunting for the last money I had in my bookie account (10 € Promo/no deposit... :lol) instantly. Could only get 35/1, but I think my bookie does not like me anymore. Then I read the whole thread and thought my money will be gone, but....:cow Backed her for 10 € in the Tote too, where she dropped from 27/1 down to 17/1 in the last minutes. :beer... will drink on for you!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings :lolShe was over 2 seconds slow at Doncaster, and shes over 2 seconds slow today. So she has not had to improve. Reasons shes Won today... 1...Goes well on the track, C/D Winner last year. 2...She handled the Ground. 3...Shes got stamina in her pedigree. 4...Todays field had loads of non stayers and horses that struggled on the fast ground. Together who finished second had previously run over 10f at Newmarket and this shows me stamina played a part in todays result. People have mentioned a headwind, no idea if there was or not. If you think shes the fastest 3 year old filly, lump on her for the Oaks. well that works both ways .........frankel was -1 .odd (slower)in the greenham and ran -1.8 in the guineas so didnt improve and was just an average horse beating a pile of shite Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings touche .......lol :rollin:rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zenyatta Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings :lol well that works both ways .........frankel was -1 .odd (slower)in the greenham and ran -1.8 in the guineas so didnt improve and was just an average horse beating a pile of shite Frankel went under standard in the Greenham. He also trounced a proper field of Group horses. As stated before the RP standards are wrong. Anyway well done, I'm not arguing with you, I think you are a good lad and wish you well. :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings you see ....that statement is actually true ......frankel ran -1.60 (slower) in the greenham and then ran -1.8 yesterday so the argument is true that if the wind or going didnt play a part then all he actually did was equal his greenham run and the other horses just floundered on the day . theres just as much truth to this statement as to the fact that this horse is rated 142 and the best horse ever .......doesnt take a genius .if the latter is true then he wont be beaten this season .....if my statement is true then when he comes up against a truely quick horse that runs its race then he'll lose Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings i like the banter with you zenyatta :ok it keeps me on my toes ....lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zenyatta Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings i like the banter with you zenyatta :ok it keeps me on my toes ....lol Mate at the end of the day you backed the Winner of the Guineas at a top price... :notworthy You're a great character and one of the best posters on this site, so best wishes :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings Thank You, read just your first post yesterday and backed Blue Bunting for the last money I had in my bookie account (10 € Promo/no deposit... :lol) instantly. Could only get 35/1, but I think my bookie does not like me anymore. Then I read the whole thread and thought my money will be gone, but....:cow Backed her for 10 € in the Tote too, where she dropped from 27/1 down to 17/1 in the last minutes. :beer... will drink on for you!! crap .......what about if it lost ? (faints ) .....lol ....i was always confident she had it in her as she had already proven it .....my only negative was there were no write ups or gallop reports saying she was running well or whatever and it was that that made me think she just wouldnt be fit enough to do herself justice ......but obviously she was .........and the rest is history.........just told my missus ive won nearly £800 and she nearly fainted :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings Rule No-1 - Page 1. Never be honest with the Mrs, you should have said you won £100 You will learn, you watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings you see it doesnt matter if the standards are accurate or not ...as long as i consistently use the same standards for all horses then the form will balance itself out and the top horse will always float to the top Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kev2oo9 Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings Well done nice work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlowRock Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings crap .......what about if it lost ? (faints ) .....lol ....i was always confident she had it in her as she had already proven it .....my only negative was there were no write ups or gallop reports saying she was running well or whatever and it was that that made me think she just wouldnt be fit enough to do herself justice ......but obviously she was .........and the rest is history.........just told my missus ive won nearly £800 and she nearly fainted :lol :lol , the money in the account was a present from the bookie when i opened it, I never desposited anything... :rollin So loosing was an option, i could live with. Now I have a proper bankroll on there...:nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings Great shout Richard :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings well ive just re-invested some of the winnings in a whole load of books off amazon so i can further read up and maybe improve my ratings ,should make for some interesting reading............i've also e mailed nick mordin for an up to date set of his standard times (for reference purposes) ,dont know if he'll reply but he did the last time i discussed something with him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings Rule No-1 - Page 1. Never be honest with the Mrs, you should have said you won £100 You will learn, you watch. lol .....i bought her some take that tickets with one of my other wins so ive lots of brownie points at the mo.......;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 2, 2011 Author Share Posted May 2, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings just wanted to wrap this up by giving you a little insight into my selection process for big races .if you rewind time back to last year and im sitting in front of my computer having just had a tenner on a 9/1 warwick and it wins and im sitting there feeling pretty pleased with myself so i deduct and recent losses i have incurred and take a slice of profit for myself and ive got £20 left over .....so i decide to look at the ante post markets for a bet on up and coming big races ...... firstly im betting with bookies money so if the selection doesnt run or whatever then "the done money " isnt too much of a factor as ive already extracted a slice of profit ....... if you read back through tis thread now a few people have commented about white moonstones performance and standards being out etc ......so lets for arguments sake say i agreed that white moonstones performance was potentially better so i have her top on 160 .....i scan the ante post markets and see her at (for arguments sake ) 10/1 fav then i have hooray who the fastest juvenile horse over 6f on 158 ....likewise i scan the markets and she is 12/1 2nd fav lets say the course standards were slightly out or my calculations of blue buntings performance were slightly overrated and in fact this horse is realistically only 3rd on the list at 156 .......i now scan the markets and find blue bunting at ....66/1 ,i sit there and think wow .......hooray looks like shes a 6f horse so this race at the moment looks between white moonstone and blue bunting at this distance ......so with a view to possibly laying the horse further down the line or the fact that the horse is the epitamy of value i would still have backed blue bunting(even though 3d in the list ) and she was always going to be the selection because she was the value bet ......my prime factor is value ...not speed so it makes little difference if the standards are slightly out or my calculation was alittle overrated as im backing e.w (dont back to win as that reduces your value factor horrendously in this case) ,i was always going to be on her and thats the way i work with every single bet i place time to get back to normal now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings you see ....that statement is actually true ......frankel ran -1.60 (slower) in the greenham and then ran -1.8 yesterday so the argument is true that if the wind or going didnt play a part then all he actually did was equal his greenham run and the other horses just floundered on the day . theres just as much truth to this statement as to the fact that this horse is rated 142 and the best horse ever .......doesnt take a genius .if the latter is true then he wont be beaten this season .....if my statement is true then when he comes up against a truely quick horse that runs its race then he'll lose :rollin I suggest you take a look at an article about Frankel's 2000 Guineas on the betfair website by Timeform's Simon Rowlands.:eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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