richard-westwood Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 just posting up the ratings i have for the 1000 guineas : blue bunting 160 good 8 f white moonstone 150 good 8f hooray 150 good 6f laughing lashes good/sft 7f 142 izzi top 140 good/fm 8f im already on blue bunting e.w at 66/1 so im just holding out to see who runs and what the ground is before finalising any other bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings havent got standards for longchamp so couldnt rate moonlight cloud who won well recntly (all be it a group 3) but he could be a danger and im looking for a standard time on that one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings and white moonstone isnt even running i dont think so that opens it up a bit more ,and yes i can hear everyone saying ...." why the hell would you back blue bunting" ? lol .i actually backed him because white moonstone ran at doncaster over 8f on good ground in september i think it was and everyone raved about his run and his price was slashed , yet blue bunting ran in a maiden over same course /dist and ran 5 lengths !!!..... faster yet was ignored because it was a maiden .......tut tut ,could be a big mistake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haystacks Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings havent got standards for longchamp so couldnt rate moonlight cloud who won well recntly (all be it a group 3) but he could be a danger and im looking for a standard time on that one Just looked through RP results for 2011 and extrapolated these Longchamp standard times: 5f 56.80 sec 8.5f 1m 44 sec 9f 1m 50.50 10f 2m 3.90 10.5f 2m 10 11f 2m 16.50 12f 2m 30.50 I don't know why the RP haven't been giving standard times for 7f and 8f. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings cheers for that haystacks .......it appears the whole chance of the horse relies upon the run at maison lafitte recently and from what i can exptrapolate it looks a fairly quick time so i can see why moonlight cloud is popular and has to have a chance ,it may hinge on the ground as if it rains and the ground comes up on the soft side of good then laughing lashes would undoubtably be the horse to be on. im just hoping blue bunting runs ......im on tenderhooks as both casamento and blue bunting are from the same stables ,ive got ante posts huge prices on both and im waiting to see if both are going to give me a run at least ,worse case they are both non runners and im knackered ,best case they both run and both win at huge prices .im just hoping i get a run and then theres no excuses ......if they are not enough or dont run their races then ill be happy ......i just want a run now !!!!:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings Interesting stuff. Blue Bunting certainly has potential Richard, but top rated?? How? Surely Hooray should be top on both form and speed ratings? Although Hooray is a doubtful stayer. Blue Bunting is interesting for the Oaks in my opinion. By Dynaformer who is a stamina influence, out of Miarixa, unraced Linamix mare who is sister to a stayer. Miarixa's foal before Blue Bunting, Descaro (by Dr Fong) stays extreme distances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings i can understand what your saying ......the chances of a 50/1 winning the guineas .....are pretty slim lol.......but as i said above white moonstoone and blue bunting both ran over the same course ,distance and going ,had blue bunting and white moonstone been in the same race blue bunting would have beaten white moonstone by 5 lengths!!! and would probably be less than 10/1 but because it only a maiden the bookies ignored it .blue bunting did nothing special in his last run on rain softened ground but just cruised up and won as he liked .ive heard no gallop reports or such so i dont know where she is in her training regime but the clock never lies and he is top draw make no mistake .i really like hooray ,but i think he might be more of a sprinter and 8f could be outside her range but if lasting then possesses huge speed so would be a big danger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings From Godolphin website BLUE BUNTING "She is more of an Oaks filly than a Guineas one and I imagine she will go for an Oaks trial. She has done fine this winter and we are just bringing her along slowly." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings shame .......sounds like she wont run then .....can only hope shes showing something at home,if she runs then take note !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings I still think she might run as they only have Zoowraa as their only other entrant now and they want soft ground for that one. Not sure what the forecast is for next weekend?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings thats what im secretly hoping as well .....lol (quote ......she will run in a oaks trial ....hold on ....maiden to oaks trial ? really......) lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings i can understand what your saying ......the chances of a 50/1 winning the guineas .....are pretty slim lol.......but as i said above white moonstoone and blue bunting both ran over the same course ' date='distance and going ,had blue bunting and white moonstone been in the same race blue bunting would have beaten white moonstone by 5 lengths!!! and would probably be less than 10/1 but because it only a maiden the bookies ignored it .blue bunting did nothing special in his last run on rain softened ground but just cruised up and won as he liked .ive heard no gallop reports or such so i dont know where she is in her training regime but the clock never lies and he is top draw make no mistake .i really like hooray ,but i think he might be more of a sprinter and 8f could be outside her range but if lasting then possesses huge speed so would be a big danger[/quote'] do you mean Doncaster CD when you say they ran over the same CD? Just curious but do you take into account the manner of the win? For example in this one, blue bunting was all out to win that maiden at Doncaster whereas White Moonstone easily came clear in a group 2 and could have probably recorded a much quicker time than she actually did Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings white moonstoone and blue bunting both ran over the same course ,distance and going ,had blue bunting and white moonstone been in the same race blue bunting would have beaten white moonstone by 5 lengths!!! the clock never lies Sorry Richard, but yes it does. I am a great believer in times myself. Times can pinpoint a good two year old, but times can NOT tell you how bad a horse is. EARLY PACE has a lot to do with the over all time. The May Hill Stakes that White Moonstone won was run in a dawdle; so of course Blue Bunting ran a better time. To say Blue Bunting would have beaten White Moonstone in the May Hill is ...., to say she would have won by 5 lengths in the same race is double .... . That not even withstanding the races being on different days. Going (there is "good" and there is "good"), rail positions and wind speed / direction could all be different. I have no problem believing Blue Bunting has potential and the time tells you she is a good filly; but to judge her ability on the two horses times is asking for trouble (imo). Though she still might be a bit of value if turning up at Newmarket.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings i love the big races ....lol ,always takes the excitement factor up a notch ..... yes i fully concur i never just take times in account when i look at a horse and of course you have to take note of what i call the class factor .....where a horse has proven itself at the required level as like has been said the horse can seem to find something on the bridle ......but ........to achieve a time at doncaster of over 1 sec faster than the course average on what was described as GOOD ground is an achievement few horses will ever do in there entire careers and the closer you are to the course standard the harder it gets to knock off each 1/5 of a sec .the average guineas is won in a course standard at newmarket so blue bunting in my eyes has already proven he can do the time required (which is a huge factor ) and it was only his 2nd race on a course !! something i have noticed when it comes to speed ratings is the descriptions can be misleading sometimes i.e when a horse achieves a certain time but wins by say 5 lengths it will be described as easy by virtue of the winning distance not the ease of how the horse did it .(sometimes it is ,sometimes not) blue bunting in recording 160 will undoubtably be flat out as would most horses to achieve a time of that calibre (most noteworthy the first 2 in that race pulled 11 lengths !! clear of the field ....although the 2nd didnt perform in the last race of the season there was something probably amiss as he only recorded 100 in the last race . in my eyes a horse has got to be capable of achieving a 150 on my scale to win a guineas ,doesnt matter if they do it in a lowly maiden or a group 1 race ....if they can do the time then they can win the guineas ........:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings worth noting that if this years guineas is won in a course average (150) then if blue bunting and white moonstone dont run then only hooray is left so far with the nescessary speed .of course horses can improve and something might step up but i prefer proven ability when i place a bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings ........to achieve a time at doncaster of over 1 sec faster than the course average on what was described as GOOD ground is an achievement few horses will ever do in there entire careers and the closer you are to the course standard the harder it gets to knock off each 1/5 of a sec .the average guineas is won in a course standard at newmarket so blue bunting in my eyes has already proven he can do the time required (which is a huge factor ) and it was only his 2nd race on a course !! blue bunting in recording 160 will undoubtably be flat out as would most horses to achieve a time of that calibre (most noteworthy the first 2 in that race pulled 11 lengths !! clear of the field .... in my eyes a horse has got to be capable of achieving a 150 on my scale to win a guineas ,doesnt matter if they do it in a lowly maiden or a group 1 race ....if they can do the time then they can win the guineas ........:clap To compare the average time of the Guineas with a single performance is .... That "average time" for the Guineas takes in to account races run on a soft surface too, which will artificially push the average time up. You're not comparing like with like. But did Blue Bunting put up a good time? I've had a closer look. Times compared to Racing Post Standard at Doncaster on Saturday 14th Aug: 1:50 7f (A class 5 3yo+ handicap) 1m23.21 faster than standard by 1.79 seconds 2:20 6f (Class 5 3 & 4yo maiden) 1m09.89 fast by 1.51 2:50 1m (Class 5 2yo maiden) BLUE BUNTING 1m37.39 fast by 1.11 3:25 7f (Class 5 3yo+ Handicap) 1m23.04 fast by 1.96 4:00 7f (Class 2 4y0+ Handicap) 1m21.92 fast by 3.08 4:35 5f (Class 3 3yo+ Handicap) 57.31sec fast by 1.19 5:10 1m6f (Class 4 3yo+ Handicap 3m06.07 slow by 0.27 5:45 1m2f (Class 5 Apprentice 4yo+ Handicap) 2m07.51 slow by 0.21 So in fact Blue Bunting's time was a slow one compared to the other races on the day. Best time by far put up in the Class 2 handicap. The official going was GOOD (GOOD-FIRM IN PLACES) although taking all times in to account suggests it was even firmer. Indeed Timeform's unbiased assessment in the Timeform Perspective is GOOD-FIRM. Timeform's assessment of Blue Bunting is a good one (for a maiden). However, her TIME can only in their opinion be rated 26lbs below what the actual FORM is worth. To be worth anything, times must be compared first and foremost with those on the day of race. Going reports by Clerks of the course can mislead punters in to thinking the time is a good one. Punters also have to look at the form. It is true there were 11 lengths back to the third, but this was only a class 5 maiden. Is Midnight Caller capable of being placed in the 1000? The fact she was only 1/2 a length behind Blue Bunting tells you the time can NOT be "outstanding". ie a "top rated" time performance for the best 3 year old fillies mile race of the season. Using times is a great way of finding value and you should keep with it Richard. But sorry, your assessment as it stands is flawed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zenyatta Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings i love the big races ....lol ,always takes the excitement factor up a notch ..... yes i fully concur i never just take times in account when i look at a horse and of course you have to take note of what i call the class factor .....where a horse has proven itself at the required level as like has been said the horse can seem to find something on the bridle ......but ........to achieve a time at doncaster of over 1 sec faster than the course average on what was described as GOOD ground is an achievement few horses will ever do in there entire careers and the closer you are to the course standard the harder it gets to knock off each 1/5 of a sec .the average guineas is won in a course standard at newmarket so blue bunting in my eyes has already proven he can do the time required (which is a huge factor ) and it was only his 2nd race on a course !! something i have noticed when it comes to speed ratings is the descriptions can be misleading sometimes i.e when a horse achieves a certain time but wins by say 5 lengths it will be described as easy by virtue of the winning distance not the ease of how the horse did it .(sometimes it is ,sometimes not) blue bunting in recording 160 will undoubtably be flat out as would most horses to achieve a time of that calibre (most noteworthy the first 2 in that race pulled 11 lengths !! clear of the field ....although the 2nd didnt perform in the last race of the season there was something probably amiss as he only recorded 100 in the last race . in my eyes a horse has got to be capable of achieving a 150 on my scale to win a guineas ,doesnt matter if they do it in a lowly maiden or a group 1 race ....if they can do the time then they can win the guineas ........:clap No offence but your ratings are massively flawed, the Racing Post standard times are wrong (I've told you this before), especially at Doncaster where the track is new having be relaid. Theres two mile courses at Doncaster the straight and the round, the time Blue Bunting put up was Ok not brilliant and like somebody mentioned the ground was probably good-firm, not good. White Moonstone won by 5 lengths and was cruising. Doncaster is NOT the course for assessing a horses ability, it favours certain types of animals and throws up strange results, anyone remember St Nicholas Abbeys Racing Post win, not one good horse came out of that race. On Longchamp if you have no standards for a mile, formulate your own. Basically all the calculations you are making are wrong because your initial starting point the standard RP time is wrong. Dream Lodge holds the course record at Doncaster over a mile and its something like 1-34, in your calculations it would be the best horse who ever lived !!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings all ratings have flaws ? you must have a starting point to be able to move forward ,i use a combination of the actaul racetime so i can calculate speed and the r.p standard which i agree seems flawed in certain situations but generally i find them quite accurate especially at the top courses as they have tested by numerous horses over the years ,the flaws are in courses like folkestone which i agree are a joke really and ive recalculated them at 0.5 secs out . actually casamento broke the track record for 2 yr olds and currently holds it hence my ante post bet at 137 .03 which was (+1.47 ) and blue bunting whether on good or good /firm recorded 137.39 (+1.11) so that says it all really because if blue bunting ran 0.38 outside the track record then thats top draw ,fast ground would take the edge of it of course but ground was generally fast side of good so even a going correction of 0.5 secs wouldnt take away from the performance .but im happy to stick with what i do and hopefully the winners will keep coming Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings and yes at 1m 34 dream lodges performance was one of the best ever seen and vastly underrated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quackers Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings I don't know that much about speed ratings or anything and yes this example of blue bunting may be flawed but your ratings so far have been pretty spot on and there have plenty of winners and big priced placed horses come from them. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings I'm a speed ratings fan and like to read richards posts I also do my own ratings for the all weather Over a few years I've come to the conclusion that they don't need to be accurate as long as they're self consistant within themselves After rating thousands of races at the all weather tracks I have a good feeling for which RP standards times are easy or hard to acheive and i factor this in when looking at past performances The main thing is that they're your own and are unique to you........and you should use them to give confidence in selections that you make via the normal channels of assessing handicap marks, trip, going etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zenyatta Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings all ratings have flaws ? you must have a starting point to be able to move forward ,i use a combination of the actaul racetime so i can calculate speed and the r.p standard which i agree seems flawed in certain situations but generally i find them quite accurate especially at the top courses as they have tested by numerous horses over the years ,the flaws are in courses like folkestone which i agree are a joke really and ive recalculated them at 0.5 secs out . actually casamento broke the track record for 2 yr olds and currently holds it hence my ante post bet at 137 .03 which was (+1.47 ) and blue bunting whether on good or good /firm recorded 137.39 (+1.11) so that says it all really because if blue bunting ran 0.38 outside the track record then thats top draw ,fast ground would take the edge of it of course but ground was generally fast side of good so even a going correction of 0.5 secs wouldnt take away from the performance .but im happy to stick with what i do and hopefully the winners will keep coming If you have the winners time, why do you need the Racing Post standard ? The standard is just the average time of every horse who has run at that trip on the course. If Dream Lodges performance was exceptional (3 secs faster than Casamento) why isnt he winning Group Ones ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings lol ........i could throw my toys out the pram (what !!! criticise my speed ratings....lol) but thats why i joined the site ,i fully take on board what is being said and i am trying to see whats working and whats not .i fully agree that i need to see how horses perform in the future with regards to doncaster form ....it may turn out that your right but with the volume of horses travelling through doncaster and the classy racing they hold if the course standards were out then they would repeatedly be broken by someone or other .,but they are not ......i must be doing something right as if you look back over my posts and my speed rating thread ,the volume of winners and placed horses far exceeds those of pure guesswork so something is working ,i can but strive to make things better and i will take a good look at the course standards i have and try to formulate a way i can possibly improve .......no harm in trying :clap the dream lodge thing was a joke ........it could have been a fluke day as some horses do or like you said overrated .. just because he didnt forfill his promise is the epitaph of numerous top horses after a good effort ......i suppose the jurys out on that one,but equally you could say if it wasnt a good time why hasnt it been broken since? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings if casamento and blue bunting run it will hopefully shed more light onto this subject Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings the winners time allows me to calculate the speed of the horse and then hence what 1 length is ,this varies from course to course (what the horse was travelling on the day ) and hence has an effect on the overall rating .the standard is just to help determine a baseline so i can work from ......the standard on its own isnt accurate ,but i can see the speed the horse was travelling so i can determine a lot from that and the combination of the 2 works better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings i was toying with the idea of comparing the course standard times to the track records at various courses and trying to come up with a ratio to see how times compare ....i.e if the course standard has a ratio of 1:1.375 at the top courses and this falls to 1:1.750 at other courses then this might be way to tell which standards are out .i could then use that to recalculate the standrd time .....theoretically of course final point .......you were comparing the times to older horses ..........he was a 2yr old .....they tend to run between 1-3 seconds slower than their older counterparts so his performance was actually quite good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zenyatta Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings the winners time allows me to calculate the speed of the horse and then hence what 1 length is ' date='this varies from course to course (what the horse was travelling on the day ) and hence has an effect on the overall rating .the standard is just to help determine a baseline so i can work from ......the standard on its own isnt accurate ,but i can see the speed the horse was travelling so i can determine a lot from that and the combination of the 2 works better[/quote'] You are totally on the right path but you're getting hung up on standard times produced by the Racing Post, they are totally wrong. If you want to treat speed figures in a scientific terms use true facts...the "winning time" of a race and work from that, standard times will just mess everything up. You will end up bending facts you uncover to "fit" racing post standards that are wrong. If RP standard times worked, all you have to do is compare every horses last performance and back the horse with the best "standard" time comparrison last time out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zenyatta Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings i was toying with the idea of comparing the course standard times to the track records at various courses and trying to come up with a ratio to see how times compare ....i.e if the course standard has a ratio of 1:1.375 at the top courses and this falls to 1:1.750 at other courses then this might be way to tell which standards are out .i could then use that to recalculate the standrd time .....theoretically of course final point .......you were comparing the times to older horses ..........he was a 2yr old .....they tend to run between 1-3 seconds slower than their older counterparts so his performance was actually quite good Dream Lodge is a handicapper /listed horse, Casamento Won a Group One race. 2 year Olds dont run one to three seconds slower than older horses, depends on their class, a good 2 year old would beat a bad 3 year old. When you drop standard times out of your thinking you will hit the jackpot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings how can you drop standard times ? courses vary ......some have undulations which slow horses down ,some are run uphill which means the standard time is slower ,a top class horse can run the 5f in 56.00 at one course and only 58.00 at another but if the standard is saying he was (+1.00) both times then he ran his race and the standards were spot on ......its the only way you can compare form at different courses ..only thing i can do id compare the ratios to see if theres anything i can do to improve them which i'll do over the next few days to see what comes up ...... if anyone else compiles speed ratings can you tell me whether you have noticed any flaw in the 6f or 8f times at newbury because my calculations suggest that these 2 specific times are out and the 5f and 7f are ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zenyatta Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Re: 1000 guineas ratings how can you drop standard times ? courses vary ......some have undulations which slow horses down ,some are run uphill which means the standard time is slower ,a top class horse can run the 5f in 56.00 at one course and only 58.00 at another but if the standard is saying he was (+1.00) both times then he ran his race and the standards were spot on ......its the only way you can compare form at different courses ..only thing i can do id compare the ratios to see if theres anything i can do to improve them which i'll do over the next few days to see what comes up ...... if anyone else compiles speed ratings can you tell me whether you have noticed any flaw in the 6f or 8f times at newbury because my calculations suggest that these 2 specific times are out and the 5f and 7f are ok So if a horse runs 1 second off standard at Ascot thats a comparable performance to a horse who runs 1 second off standard at Brighton !!! I dont think you're getting the point all the Racing Posts standard times dont tell you anything apart from the total average of every single horse who has run over that course and distance. A top class horse would smash track records at any little track he/she went to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.