Datapunter Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? is it valid for these 200 as well? Think about it, that is actually the same question as mine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? The answer is obvious, but I'll wait for Chris answer as requested by Datapunter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisB Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? for your last scenario : yes i will make profit (+ 25 u for 1u/bet and if we ignore the 800 bets at 2.00) and yes i'm sure. don't tell me that david copperfield will come ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? for your last scenario : yes i will make profit (+ 25 u for 1u/bet and if we ignore the 800 bets at 2.00) and yes i'm sure. You may or you may not make a profit, there is no certainty at all that you will. Think about it, this is exactly where your logic goes into a fallacy, all the components to get this have been explained. This is the nasty thing about fallacies, they always appear obvious, they are obvious to those that get them, and obvious to those that don't. Why are you certain you will make a profit ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? for your last scenario : yes i will make profit (+ 25 u for 1u/bet and if we ignore the 800 bets at 2.00) and yes i'm sure. don't tell me that david copperfield will come ! Common, Chris, think again, this is obvious! Take note, that all bets are randomised! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisB Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? You may or you may not make a profit, there is no certainty at all that you will. Think about it, this is exactly where your logic goes into a fallacy, all the components to get this have been explained. This is the nasty thing about fallacies, they always appear obvious, they are obvious to those that get them, and obvious to those that don't. Why are you certain you will make a profit ? Mulki you know the magic trick. ok interesting... i'm certain to make profit because i'm sure to have an advantage. Indeed, how to be in losing with a odds @ 2.25, a 50% strike rate and always 1u / bets ? ;) (we are agree with this) I am the only one who did not know the magic trick :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? Mulkis you know the magic trick ? The only one trick, I must say, is Datapunters style of presenting the question. It looks like you, Chris, assumed that 50% strike rate applies to these 200 bets. This is the main (and probably the only one) your mistake. In fact, those 200 bets could not have 50% rate, because bets are randomised and it could be you will happen to bet on bets with "fair odds" higher than 2.00 (2.50 as in the example). So, you will end with loss... But you could win, if you happen to get bids with "fair odds" @2.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? Indeed Mulkis, indeed. I love wikipedia: FALLACY: In informal logic and rhetoric, a fallacy is usually incorrect reasoning in argumentation resulting in a misconception. By accident or design, fallacies may exploit emotional triggers in the listener or interlocutor (e.g. appeal to emotion), or take advantage of social relationships between people (e.g. argument from authority). Fallacious arguments are often structured using rhetorical patterns that obscure the logical argument, making fallacies more difficult to diagnose. Also, the components of the fallacy may be spread out over separate arguments http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallacy Indeed, how to be in losing with a odds @ 2.25, a 50% strike rate and always 1u / bets ? (we are agree with this) Where do arrive at the figure of 50% strike rate ? Examine again how the group of 200 is formed out of the 1000, It could be 50% but it could just as easily be 40% or even 60%, both profit as well as loss are possible on those 200 bets, there is no certainty, you just don't know. That is where your fallacy lies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisB Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? ok, the guilty is "random ". i undertand better BUT, BUT, BUT, one time it will be in your favour an one time it will be againt you. But at the end the balance is neutral. we can also call this : positive period and negative period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? Keep thinking, you'll get there in the end. And please note you are certainly not the only one who doesn't get it. I'll do a summary with each step tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisB Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? ok, thank you very much for your patience. Step 1 is validated and I stay on my position that the positive periods will be better than the negative periods if the system produce profit in the long term. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisB Posted April 29, 2011 Author Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? ok, thank you very much for your patience. Step 1 is validated and I stay on my position that the positive periods will be better than the negative periods if the system produce profit in the long term. :) everybody are agree with this ? with datapunter, i have few doubt on my betting fundamentals... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? everybody are agree with this ? with datapunter, i have few doubt on my betting fundamentals... It is quite elementary that one could be profitable if his strike rate and odds are in positive balance. This loooong lesson from datapunter merely explains this. It has nothing to do with opening odds "value" and the concept you, ChrisB, presented in the begining of this tread. I am still sure, that bookmakers odds are more fair than not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisB Posted April 29, 2011 Author Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? datapunter, i'm curious by nature. Can you explain me this? "if you stay in the game long enough, you'll see everything, win evething and lose everything" are you the autor ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisB Posted April 29, 2011 Author Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? It is quite elementary that one could be profitable if his strike rate and odds are in positive balance. This loooong lesson from datapunter merely explains this. It has nothing to do with opening odds "value" and the concept you, ChrisB, presented in the begining of this tread. I am still sure, that bookmakers odds are more fair than not. Mulkis, i'm agree with you. i'm confident on opening odds. Nobody has proven reverse. now, the battle begin and the choice of bookmakers is very important. but before to talk about the bookmakers, i wait the summary of datapunter. step by step like he says :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? and I stay on my position that the positive periods will be better than the negative periods if the system produce profit in the long term. IF ???? that's like saying water is wet, well yes it is. there is absolutely NOTHING in this whole thread that can lead to the conclusion there will be more profitable bet/series than non-profitable ones. Nothing. It is quite elementary that one could be profitable if his strike rate and odds are in positive balance Sure, but you're not going to get there on the basis of opening odds. At least you cannot draw that conclusion on the basis of opening odds and drifting odds. "if you stay in the game long enough, you'll see everything, win evething and lose everything" I just read it somewhere. i'm confident on opening odds. Nobody has proven reverse. What about opening odds are you confident about ? What exactly has not been proven ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? With all respect, especially for you Datapunter, if you failing to understand what r2 analysis means (and most likely did not bothered yourself with the table I've presented earlier). I've made a test for specific odds 2.10, 110 bets in total. Result ("hit rate") is 47.27%. If it tells nothing to you, then we are from a different planets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? With all respect, especially for you Datapunter, if you failing to understand what r2 analysis means (and most likely did not bothered yourself with the table I've presented earlier). I've made a test for specific odds 2.10, 110 bets in total. Result ("hit rate") is 47.27%. If it tells nothing to you, then we are from a different planets. I am not disputing the statement that bookmakers opening odds are accurate on average, i don't need a test, i'm perfectly willing to accept that as a fact. What i do dispute is the conclusion that follows: a) that from that information you can deduct the "fair odds" of a selection, you cannot. b) that if you simply bet on all selection above that average that you'll make a profit, you may or may not, it is by no means a certainty. Hence the correctness of opening odds, accurate as they may be, does not show you where the value is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? Ok. More or less we are from the same planet:) Or at least solar system:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? Close enough :lol everybody should have a good read of this page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallacy really, it's what this whole thread is about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? And I would recommend Datapunter this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fellatio :) :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisB Posted April 29, 2011 Author Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? it's really sad that nobody can prove mathematically that the opening odds are not fair. :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisB Posted April 29, 2011 Author Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? Datapunter, when i read your posts, I feel you trying to tell us that is not possible to win in sport betting. :unsure and you, how do you bet ? - Horse racing ? exchange ? value ? - Moneyline ? asian handicap ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisB Posted April 29, 2011 Author Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? Datapunter you are otfen pessimistic on this thread. Why ? can you answer these questions ? A little optimism please. :) 1) it si possible to win in sports betting ? 2) it is possible to win with value bets ? 3) it is possible to win 50% strike rate, odds à 2.00 and a good staking plan ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cramer Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? it's really sad that nobody can prove mathematically that the opening odds are not fair. :\ They just aren't:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? 1) it si possible to win in sports betting ? Sure. 2) it is possible to win with value bets ? Sure. 3) it is possible to win 50% strike rate, odds à 2.00 and a good staking plan ? No. it's really sad that nobody can prove mathematically that the opening odds are not fair The whole point is that you cannot conclude they are or aren't. No matter how accurate the average it says nothing about the fairness of the odds on each individual selection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? 1) it si possible to win in sports betting ? Sure. 2) it is possible to win with value bets ? Sure. 3) it is possible to win 50% strike rate, odds à 2.00 and a good staking plan ? No. The whole point is that you cannot conclude they are or aren't. No matter how accurate the average it says nothing about the fairness of the odds on each individual selection. We can say, though, that it is more likely that a set of odds is 'unfair' than fair, due to the nature of chaotic systems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisB Posted April 29, 2011 Author Share Posted April 29, 2011 V-zero, can you prove it ? Due to the nature of chaotic system (here sports betting) , - set of odds are unfair. - set of odds are fair. ok, this is exactely that Mulkis said in his table. :) Now the question is : - Is that set of 'unfair' odds are more numerous than set of 'fair' odds ? and the answer is again on the Mulkis's table. :) at the end, "fair odds" take an advantage of unfair "odds". + : i don't see bookmakers delivers more "unfair odds" than "fair odds". it's a nonsense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? We can say, though, that it is more likely that a set of odds is 'unfair' than fair, due to the nature of chaotic systems Well, yes and no, how unfair is fair ? What we know, or can accept as axioma, is that the average of a set of odds is accurate. But does that tell us anything about the distribution of the members in the group ? From my example with a correct average of 2.00, it is possible members range from 1.66 to 2.50, but it is also possible they range from 1.50 to 3.00, and it is also possible they range from 1.95 to 2.05 ..... hmmmmm, not forgetting a large group of 1.95 and a few individuals of 10.0...... also average 2.00 can we draw any conclusion as to the make up of this distribution ? I don't think so, we just don't know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisB Posted April 29, 2011 Author Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Fair or not fair ? Emotional punter attitude tell me that we can know. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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