Fair or not fair ?

[v-zero]

Re: Fair or not fair ?

Well, yes and no, how unfair is fair ? What we know, or can accept as axioma, is that the average of a set of odds is accurate. But does that tell us anything about the distribution of the members in the group ? From my example with a correct average of 2.00, it is possible members range from 1.66 to 2.50, but it is also possible they range from 1.50 to 3.00, and it is also possible they range from 1.95 to 2.05 ..... hmmmmm, not forgetting a large group of 1.95 and a few individuals of 10.0...... also average 2.00 can we draw any conclusion as to the make up of this distribution ? I don't think so, we just don't know.

Unless the expectation of a bet is exactly equal to the value of the stake, then the odds are not fair. In which direction they are unfair is important, of course.

[Datapunter]

Re: Fair or not fair ? Eh ? what's the stake got to do with it. "Fair odds" are those odds that represent a selections true chance of winning its event. If the odds reflect that chance they are called "fair". Does the average of a group, no matter how accurate that average is, reflect the accuracy of each individual ? No. In other words the average may be accurate it does not mean this average reflects the "fair odds" of each individual member. How close are the "fair odds" of the individual members to this average ?

[v-zero]

Re: Fair or not fair ?

Eh ? what's the stake got to do with it. "Fair odds" are those odds that represent a selections true chance of winning its event. If the odds reflect that chance they are called "fair". Does the average of a group, no matter how accurate that average is, reflect the accuracy of each individual ? No. In other words the average may be accurate it does not mean this average reflects the "fair odds" of each individual member. How close are the "fair odds" of the individual members to this average ?

By expectation, I mean the expected value of any money staked on that event at those odds.

[Datapunter]

Re: Fair or not fair ? " Unless value is 0 ..... " We need a universal translator for this thread :lol

[v-zero]

Re: Fair or not fair ?

" Unless value is 0 ..... " We need a universal translator for this thread :lol

I tend to use terminology from Mathematics as that is my background, sorry.

[ChrisB]

Re: Fair or not fair ? Mulkis, it is possible to make your table with more soccer matchs ? i want to see if deviation is the same or not. Do you think that the result will be the same on tennis or baseball ? thanks :)

[Mulkis]

Re: Fair or not fair ?

Mulkis, it is possible to make your table with more soccer matchs ? i want to see if deviation is the same or not. Do you think that the result will be the same on tennis or baseball ? thanks :)

Sure its possible. But sorry, I have no time for this at the moment. I would suggest you to take xls. files from football-data.co.uk (tennis-data.co.uk) and do your own table. Are you familiar with excel? As for tennis, yes it is even more precise. Baseball dont know, have no data.

[ChrisB]

Re: Fair or not fair ? Ok, i'm not so familiar with excel. But in waiting your result, i'll try to get result on my side. Mulkis, Just can you tell me how i must interpret -5.30 deviation % . it's 5.30% difference with "fair odds" ?

[ChrisB]

Re: Fair or not fair ? I want to make a little clarification The most reputable bookmakers do not make their odds, they buy them ! A compagny is specializes on selling odds. BETRADAR. Bookmakers buy odds service and adjust odds depending on how their cutomers place bets. and the opening odds is sent on the market. I'm right or not ? Anybody knows Betradar ? (at least one person : datapunter) :) My HOT question is : If we know betradar odds, we know the "fair" odds ?