Tennis - 18-24 April

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Haven't decided yet but Radwanska surely has to be considered a good bet at evens to beat Schiavone. They played in the fourth round at Indian Wells and the Pole won 6-0, 6-2. This was the first time Radwanska had beaten Schiavone in five matches but it was also the slowest court they'd ever played on. Schiavone hasn't looked like a top player for a while now and I think her age is catching up with her. She's made one quarter final all year (Aussie Open) and is losing as much as she's winning at the moment. Don't think she'll be good enough to beat Radwanska, who is playing pretty well at the moment and will be confident on clay after beating Jamie Hampton 6-1, 6-0 today.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Taken 3 in the end after waiting for the prices. Was also planning on taking Monaco and Ferrer with handicaps but price is way too short. Also considered the Shvedova handicap as Smeg mentioned but something in the back of my mind put me off it. Still have the Cornet bet pending as well as she's currently 6-3 5-3 up before they went off due to bad light unbelievably. Hopefully she'll finish the job tomorrow, requiring one of the next two games to cover the handicap. Onto tomorrow then. Kei Nishikori vs Rui Machado- Nishikori -3.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (5/10) Took this really early on and the price has since dropped. This week Kei is bidding to become the highest ranked Japanese player in history so that alone should stand as good motivation for him. He kicked off his clay season well last week, making the final in Houston, beating good players like Fish, Cuevas and Andreev. He demolished Riba today before the Spaniard retired at the end of the first set so Kei will be fresh for tomorrow which would have done him good after a long last week. Wouldn't have any confidence in Machado at the minute, even on his favoured clay surface his recent performances have been poor. Losses to Tomic, Roger-Vasselin and Ramirez-Hidalgo don't make for happy reading and I can't see him upping his game enough to cope for Kei today. Should be relatively straight forward for Nishikori and the handicap should be well in reach. Benoit Paire vs Albert Montanes- Montanes -5.5 handicap- 4/6 Bet365- (5/10) Have to favour Monty here and don't expect Paire to give too much today. He's already played 3 qualifiers here, all of which have gone to 3 sets so I'm guessing fatigue must start to kick in with the Frenchman. He hasn't looked convincing in his last two matches, just about snuck through against Ilhan the other day, and he dropped the first set today against the Spanish youngster Busta. Monty is one of the best clay courters around. Backed him against Gabashvili where in truth he didn't have to play anywhere near his best to hammer the Russian. If he wanted to he could have easily bagelled him in one of those sets. Just fail to see how Montanes won't win this in similiar fashion to his first match and the handicap shouldn't really be a problem with the Spaniard. He's covered the handicap against Fognini, Volandri and Malisse recently, should be a similiar result again. Kevin Anderson vs Victor Hanescu- Anderson +1.5 handicap- 10/11 Bet365- (4/10) Must admit I was suprised to see big Kev get past Cuevas yesterday but he did and I'll back him to keep it tight and maybe edge this one against a Hanescu who is still a bit hit and miss at the minute. The South African's match against Cuevas was mainly all about serve for the first couple of sets, aside from the double break at the end of the second set to which Cuevas took it to a third. However Anderson recovered well and broke Cuevas straight away in the third and never looked back. That says to me that he wants a run this week and will put himself about on the court. Granted his serve isn't as effective as it would be on the ad courts, but if it's on song, he will stil be able to pick up some cheap points. Hanescu got some wins under his belt over in Casablanca but then had a disappointing loss to Gonzalez in Monte-Carlo. He easily beat Golubev but that was expected as he is having a poor year. Anderson will be a completely different match for the Romanian and I'd fancy Kev to nick a set here if not the match. They played back in Auckland this year where Hanescu narrowly won the third set. Anderson will be looking for revenge and if Hanescu goes missing for a set, the handicap could come into play. It just provides a bit more security than the outright so hopefully big Kev can serve well and put pressure on Hanescu.

[dizzyme]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Not too sure about Schiavone, she allegedly had pulled out of the tournament due to exhaustion but she's back in. If she really is suffering from exhaustion (why i don't know since she hasn't been playing much) she might not be at her best for the match against Radwasnska.

[pupsaa]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Hello tennis experts :D Any reason why the handicap on Na Li is so low, against 156th Lisicki? :unsure

[dizzyme]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Probably because Lisicki is playing at home in Germany and beat a good player in Cibulkova in the last round and Li Na's win in the last round was her first win since losing the Aussie Open final.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Two more for me. Nishikori was easy enough, but Stosur threw away the second set. (4/10) S.Greul (+4) to bt. M.Raonic @ 2.06 at Pinnacle Greul can push Raonic all the way here. I think that he is a solid clay courter and he always raises his game for these occassions. I cannot see Raonic being too comfortable on the surface and Greul knows how to play against him. Four games look a bit too much to my eye. (4/10) I.Dodig (+5) to bt. R.Soderling @ 1.87 at Pinnacle A little bit opportunistic, but I will take it. Soderling has not played since Miami and that is a long break. He was not looking very sharp in the USA and Dodig pushed him all the way there. He might not win, as the surface plays to Soderling's hands, but five games is a little bit too much in my opinion.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April

Got some revision and stuff to do tomorrow so only taking one on. Alize Cornet vs Andrea Hlavakova- Cornet -4.5 handicap- 4/5 Bet365- (5/10)

WIN Glad she didn't blow it after the day length interval due to bad light.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April

Kei Nishikori vs Rui Machado- Nishikori -3.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (5/10) Benoit Paire vs Albert Montanes- Montanes -5.5 handicap- 4/6 Bet365- (5/10) Kevin Anderson vs Victor Hanescu- Anderson +1.5 handicap- 10/11 Bet365- (4/10)

WIN WIN LOSS Anderson blew the perfect day but I'm lucky to come away with some profit there. Monty virtually blew the handicap in the first set I thought but a commanding second set got it back within reach. He then came back from a break in the third to win by the all important 2 game margin in the final set. Phew :cheers

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April 0/3 today. Greul had chances and pushed Raonic all the way, Zverev also not that far away and really disgusted with Schiavone. Took early and was not aware of the situation.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April

(4/10) K.Nishikori (-4) to bt. R.Machado @ 2.00 at Pinnacle:ok:ok (4/10) S.Greul (+4) to bt. M.Raonic @ 2.06 at Pinnacle:ok:ok (4/10) I.Dodig (+5) to bt. R.Soderling @ 1.87 at Pinnacle:ok:ok (4/10) S.Stosur (-3.5) to bt. D.Hantuchova @ 1.80 at Bet365:@:@

Fair enough I think.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Still waiting for totals and handicaps, so have made only three selections thus far. All dogs... WTA Stuttgart Samantha Stosur to beat Vera Zvonareva. 2.40 @ Gamebookers (6/10) Have seen couple of her matches and there's clearly massive problems for Zvonareva against Sam. Both are big hitters and normally Zvonareva is very good at opponents like that but not against Stosur. She has lost five consecutive times against the Aussie and indoor conditions will suit Stosur more. She reached the final here last year (l. to Henin) and despite playing three sets against Hantuchova yesterday still looked better than Zvonareva against Pavlyuchenkova. Should not be 2.40 on Sam who has won last six sets against Vera... ATP Barcelona Gael Monfils vs Richard Gasquet. 2.45 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Remember very well backing Gasquet to beat Monfils in last year's US Open. Gasquet threw that one away so obviously that I'm wondering why he was not investigated. Anyway, fancy Monfils here because he is better on serve and if not fooling around which was happening at times against Haase, he can take care of Gasquet who might lose this one deliberatly once again. Just have to wait and see what will happen this time. Nikolay Davydenko to beat Nicolas Almagro. 2.80 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Davydenko has won two matches this week. Unbelievable considering how poor he has been this year. Have to admit that did not see any of his performances (guess, it wasn't even televised) but will back him in this match. The main reason for this bet is that Almagro is really brainless player. He'll be in Top 10 come next week. Have to laugh for this beacause we already have Melzer in Top 10... Anyway the thing about Almagro is that he always plays the same just like James Blake. Davydenko has got quality return game and he can really hurt player like Almagro who just goes for his shots and doesn't think much. Saw him against Andujar, it was very close and had it not be for Andujar but stronger oppoent he might have lost. Davydenko with every chance and having won two matches in a row, he can be trusted now, I guess. He had not won consecutive matches since the first week of the year when he reached the final in Doha.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Had a look at the prices and taken two. One involving the men and one on the women's side of things over in Fes. Jurgen Melzer vs Albert Montanes- Melzer -2.5 handicap- 4/5 Bet365- (5/10) Not the biggest fan of Melzer but he looks to be playing well enough to take this one. I've backed Montanes in his last two matches with success but this looks like the right time to fade the Spaniard. He struggled against Paire today and against a better and more experienced player, he would have more than likely lost. He struggled on serve, and had to recover from a break down in the final set to eventually win it. Melzer on the other hand demolished Granollers today, continuing on his good form from last week where he beat Almagro and Federer. Melzer leads the H2H 5-2 and unless Montanes ups his game from his previous matchs against Gabashvili and Paire, I'm struggling to see how he will cope with an in form Mezler and I'll back the Austrian to win this one. The handicap is small enough to be covered even if it goes to three sets and if it does go to the third set fatigue will start to kick in with the Spaniard after his epic match today. I reckon Melzer should be fine here though and the form and quality of the Austrian should prevail. Alize Cornet vs Dinara Safina- Safina -3.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (5/10) Like Monty in the previous match, I backed Cornet in her match against Hlavackova but Safina is a completely different match up and should have too much power for her. She only lost one game in her rout over Craybas in the previous round so she will be completely fresh for today. Despite her terrible form at the start of the season, she looks to returning to some form. She beat Stosur and Hantuchova back in Indian Wells, and pushed Zvonareva to 3 sets in Miami which looks to have given her the confidence she needed. Her serve isn't as unreliable as it was, with it getting better everytime I see it which is a massive plus for the Russian. Cornet may be a touch fatigued after today in fact. She played a lengthy doubles match earlier which lasted a couple of hours, and her first round match was interrupted by bad light. This isn't the best preparation for her and seeing as her match yesterday was only her second match on the clay courts this year, she will still need court time to adapt, but against Safina she won't be allowed to dictate the rallies or get into any sort of rhythm as Safina will look to hit the winners with her powerful groundstrokes. The Russian has won all 3 matches between the pair, granted they were back when she was peaking but given her current form, she should have enough for Cornet again today and take this one comfortably.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April One for me after a day off yesterday. Been a poor tournament personally, hope for better today. Juan Carlos Ferrero v Simone Vagnozzi Under 19.5 games @ 1.926 with Pinnacle 5pts Really can't see Vagnozzi lasting long here. The Italian benefitted from an "interesting" match with Fabio Fognini and then took out an out-of-sorts Juan Monaco. I was wary of Ferrero at the start of the week considering his injury problems, but he's proved that he's in decent shape. Good wins over Xavier Malisse and Mischa Zverev, players he has struggled with in the past, suggest that he's hitting the ball well, and he'll be desperate to go deep in this event to boost his ranking. Vagnozzi is a Challenger player. A couple of good results here does not make him a world-beater by any stretch. Often weaker players have a big comedown after a good win and I expect the same here. Ferrero is experienced, crafty and above all, very adept on clay. He should be able to take out the Italian with minimal fuss. Unders is more appealing than the -5.5 game line, which is nicely priced but doesn't offer cover for 6-3 6-4, which is plausible. :hope

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Both Raonic and Radwanska did the business yesterday, which makes 4/4 for me this week. Today is all about Gasquet for me. He's been playing well recently and looks to be enjoying things back on clay. Monfils hasn't been playing well all year and has struggled with a wrist injury, missing a lot of tournaments. When he plays he doesn't look sharp and goes through the motions a bit. Last week's 7-6, 6-2 loss to Federico Gil was a prime example. Since the Aussie Open Gasquet's lost to Federer, Djokovic, Fish and Nadal and no-one else. The only one of them he would have been expected to win was against Fish and the American was inspired in Miami. Gasquet also won the last time he played Monfils, so there shouldn't be any inferiority complex against a higher ranked compatriot. Monfils can be unpredictable and has a habit of taking sets to tie-breaks or pulling out a ridiculously good 20 mins so I'm not touching handicaps just the straight win. Odds are 4/6 skybet.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April WTA Stuttgart Caroline Wozniacki vs Andrea Petkovi. Over 20.5 games. 1.92 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Leaning towards Petkovic here but not sure she can beat Wozniacki two times in a row. Would have taken handicap but 4 games is kinda shaky. I think Petkovic definitely will go for this one and playing at home should be an additional boost to her confidence. Wozniacki not that good on clay and if Petko finds her rhythm and doesn't force things she might win. If she does can't see that happening easily and three sets might be happening all over again. She has played couple 3-setter already this week. Should be a close match and I chose overs. ATP Barcelona Santiago Giraldo +8 AH vs Rafael Nadal. 1.75 @ Pinnacle (6/10) As good as Rafa is I think 8 games spread is overrated here. Giraldo is not that bad and I reckon he can win at least couple games per set to make at least a push on this one. He has had couple decent performances against Nadal all be it on hard. 6-3, 6-3 and 6-4, 6-4 for Nadal. I think Santi can cover 8 games today.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Very tempting card today. I will take a few early on and maybe add something later. (4/10) S.Stosur to bt. V.Zvonareva @ 2.26 at Pinnacle Obvious match-up problems for Zvonareva. She looked average against Pavlyuchenkova yesterday, especially if you look at the second serve points won (13/30 or so I believe). The H2H says it all and I do not understand why she should be the underdog here. This is a 50/50 match at worst, so going with the value here. (4/10) J.Melzer (-2.5) to bt. A.Montanes @ 1.72 at Bet365 Not a great price, but he is the better player at the moment and the only way he is going to lose it is because of his fitness problems. However, he was sharp after that medical timeout yesterday and he probably got over it quickly. Montanes struggled against Paire, which is horrible.

[Duckets]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Gasquet vs monfils This is a difficult call because these two players can be unreliable, monfils was very disappointing against federico Gil, probably carrying injury. I also think that gasquet is a better option thinking of his performance against nadal.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April I'll take two more today as well ... Richard Gasquet v Gael Monfils Over 22 games AH @ 1.877 with Pinnacle 4pts Think the line is far too short here, honestly thought we'd be looking at over 23 games minimum. No doubting the ability of the two players on offer here, but they can both go missing for large periods of the match, They are both mentally unstable. Gasquet's probably playing the better tennis at the moment but Monfils can be dangerous. The H2H is 3-3 and their last meeting, on hard, went the distance. Two players who know each others' games very well, I'd be surprised if there weren't a few twists and turns along the way. Feel this line should be higher - two sets could cover it. More than happy to bite. Feliciano Lopez v Kei Nishikori Over 22 games AH @ 1.935 with Pinnacle 4pts Lots of credit due to Lopez this week. He's done very well to battle through into the latter reaches of a clay event. The red brick is by no means his favourite surface but a good win over Guillermo Garcia-Lopez suggests that he has found a way to utilise his serve and do some damage. Nishikori has also been very good this week, couple of nice easy victories mean he comes to the boil nicely for this. Evidently a handy clay court player and I'd expect him to edge this. Two very good servers come up against each other, and with home backing, I'd expect this to be close. Over 22 games again seems too short, so I'll pounce on that. :hope

[crack]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April

Sport	Tennis
Event	Kristina Barrois - Agnieszka Radwanska
Selection	Kristina Barrois -1.5 (sets handicap) (Asian-handicap)
Strength	5/10
Date	21/04/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Sportingbet @ 10.00
Reasoning	Stuttgart WTA Premier (GER) - Clay, Quarter Final Kristina Barrois is my favorite in this match. She showed in Stuttgard really nice tennis. Agnieszka Radwańska defetated Jamie Hampton 6-0 6-1 but Hampton turned pro in 2009. Next match Agnieszka won against Francesca Schiavone but Franscesca is without good shape, she plays terrible. Schiavone played very bad - many unforced errors, 5 double faults. Kristina Barrois's favourite surface is clay so she has many chances. Kristina is playing at home, friends are supporters. Kristina Barrois can holding her service and waiting for rival's bad moments. Service's Agnieszka is not strong!

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Well done Sam! Really brainless performance, though :dude

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April

(4/10) S.Stosur to bt. V.Zvonareva @ 2.26 at Pinnacle:ok:ok (4/10) J.Melzer (-2.5) to bt. A.Montanes @ 1.72 at Bet365:ok:ok

Good. I will not be going for more though.

[dizzyme]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Nice comeback win from Sam. Zvonareva and her strings constantly breaking. :lol

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April

Jurgen Melzer vs Albert Montanes- Melzer -2.5 handicap- 4/5 Bet365- (5/10) Alize Cornet vs Dinara Safina- Safina -3.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (5/10) .

WIN WIN Nice double win today although Melzer gave his usual performance of being a clown in the first set and saving god knows how many break points. Glad he pulled through though. Nice call on Stosur btw Czech and Psycho :ok

[flipskee]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April lol ferrero

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April

Samantha Stosur to beat Vera Zvonareva. 2.40 @ Gamebookers (6/10) WIN Gael Monfils vs Richard Gasquet. 2.45 @ Pinnacle (5/10) WIN Santiago Giraldo +8 AH vs Rafael Nadal. 1.75 @ Pinnacle (6/10) PUSH Nikolay Davydenko to beat Nicolas Almagro. 2.80 @ Pinnacle (5/10) LOSS Caroline Wozniacki vs Andrea Petkovi. Over 20.5 games. 1.92 @ Pinnacle (5/10) LOSS

Davydenko threw away the first set from 5-2. Really funny to see him signalling to someone in the crowd that he's gonna lose the set. Brings up memories of Moscow from two years ago. Petkovic yet another mental collapse. 4-1 up in the first set, can't win a game after that...

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April

Under 19.5 games @ 1.926 with Pinnacle 5pts LOSS Over 22 games AH @ 1.877 with Pinnacle 4pts WIN Over 22 games AH @ 1.935 with Pinnacle 4pts WIN

Profitable day, although it was fly-by-the-seat-of-your-pants stuff for both the overs bets. Not complaining though. Some nice calls again chaps :ok

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April

Both Raonic and Radwanska did the business yesterday, which makes 4/4 for me this week. Today is all about Gasquet for me. He's been playing well recently and looks to be enjoying things back on clay. Monfils hasn't been playing well all year and has struggled with a wrist injury, missing a lot of tournaments. When he plays he doesn't look sharp and goes through the motions a bit. Last week's 7-6, 6-2 loss to Federico Gil was a prime example. Since the Aussie Open Gasquet's lost to Federer, Djokovic, Fish and Nadal and no-one else. The only one of them he would have been expected to win was against Fish and the American was inspired in Miami. Gasquet also won the last time he played Monfils, so there shouldn't be any inferiority complex against a higher ranked compatriot. Monfils can be unpredictable and has a habit of taking sets to tie-breaks or pulling out a ridiculously good 20 mins so I'm not touching handicaps just the straight win. Odds are 4/6 skybet.

Should have known better than to bet on Gasquet.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April WTA Stuttgart Julia Goerges > Samantha Stosur. 3.28 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Stosur has been really poor in her last two matches but managed to escape and get thru to the semies. Now she's up against local player Goerges who can trouble her a lot and I think she will win. Goerges is brainless hitter but Stosur is just like that and therefor won't be able to outsmart her. Really impressed with the way Goerges took out Lisicki yesterday. She is in great mood and match-up is quite good. Goerges strong from both wings whilst Stosur as always having issues with her horrible backhand and the forehand was off as well yesterday against Zvonareva. She made massive 27 unforced errors in the first set, managed to pick it up but could have lost. Really fancy Goerges to make the final at her home event. She has beaten Sam in their only match which was last year in Tokyo on hard courts, so she can deal with Stosur on hard, should be no problems on clay as well.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April Guys I've just noticed something within the forum. Although quite a few us post regular tips and do the write-ups for them, there is barely any discussion about the matches. Seem to remember that there used to be a fair amount of talking about the matches that were played and for the upcoming matches the day after. Don't know if some of the followers found these discussions helpful or not to influence what selections to follow, but it just popped into my head after looking through the past tennis forums (can tell I'm on holiday from uni atm as I have nothing better to do than look through the forums :lol) So basically just wanted to see if the regulars and also others who look at the tennis forum feel the discussions are helpful or it's fine as it is with just the tips and write ups. I'll try and kick one off regarding the Almagro Ferrero clash tomorrow. Ferrero very lucky to get through today and surely Almagro should deal with him easily. But part of me thinks Ferrero could well hold his own for the majority of the match, which puts me off the unders.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 18-24 April

I'll try and kick one off regarding the Almagro Ferrero clash tomorrow. Ferrero very lucky to get through today and surely Almagro should deal with him easily. But part of me thinks Ferrero could well hold his own for the majority of the match' date=' which puts me off the unders.[/quote'] Have to keep in mind that this is the first tournament since US Open for JCF. His match against nobody player Vagnozzi was a nightmare from the stats point of view. He was broken seven times and had 20(!) break points against him and was a break down in the final set as well. Almagro beat him easily in this tournament few years back (6-3, 6-3 in 1/4finals 2006) and could destroy him again, bare in mind Ferrero might have fitness problems having been out for so long and playing such a long match on Thursday. But with Mugro you never know, he is totally brainless and can throw away a set and lose it in the breaker and then win easily the other two sets. The rain which is forecast for tomorrow however might save some time for JCF to get rested.