Tennis - 11-17 April

[Atko]

In here chaps. Good luck to all for the week :ok

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April Two bets so far for me in Monte Carlo. Tommy Robredo had a very good Latin swing, winning Costa do Sauipe and performing decently in the other events. Made R3 here last year so has some points to defend, and takes on Ivan Dodig. The Croat has also had a good year, winning his first title, but he's best suited to quick, indoor hard courts. TOMMY ROBREDO -4 GAMES AH is attractively priced at 2.18, which I think is too big. Robredo has more experience on these courts and is a better mover. He picked up an injury in Indian Wells but I expect him to be fit here, otherwise he wouldn't play. Should be able to take care of Dodig on his best surface. I'm also going to oppose Nikolay Davydenko in his match with Robin Haase. Just don't think Davydenko is anywhere near the player he once was, his groundies ssem to lack bite and power. Haase's been pretty inconspicuous this year but prefers the clay and comes here fit. He has a decent serve and that could be the difference, as he'll pick on Davydenko's. ROBIN HAASE +4 GAMES AH seems far too generous considering that Davydenko has had a number of problems this year. If he wins, I can't see it being an easy affair. Reccommendations Tommy Robredo -4 games AH @ 2.18 with Pinnacle Robin Haase +4 games AH @ 1.87 with Pinnacle :hope

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April Two matches for me as well on Monday. 1) Florian Mayer to beat Mikhail Youzhny. 2.10 @ Gamebookers (5/10) Youzhny is in poor form at the moment and some of his last matches have shown that he needs a break. Normally the odds for him to beat player like Mayer would not be this high, that's another indication that he might lose today. Secondly, he has never had great results in this tournament and is here because it's a mandatory event, so he has to be here unless he's injured, of course. His best result here is 3rd round which was back in 2001. Unbelievable. He was beaten by Nalbi here last year, did not get past qualies a year prior to that and in current circumstances does not look mighty impressive on form either. Mayer has beaten him 3 times out of 6 and should be good to make this match a real contest. 2) Santiago Giraldo -4 AH vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver. 2.09 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Traver is yet to win a match this year and has lost 11 straigth singles matches. Awful stats to have and there's no light at the end of the tunel for the Spaniard. Giraldo leads H2H 3-0 and two of those wins have been recorded this year, both on hard but Giraldo can play on clay as well, so basically have to back him to win again. 4 games is so so and would have prefered 3.5 but still think this should work out in the end.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April

Two matches for me as well on Monday. 1) Florian Mayer to beat Mikhail Youzhny. 2.10 @ Gamebookers (5/10) WIN 2) Santiago Giraldo -4 AH vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver. 2.09 @ Pinnacle (5/10) LOSS

Tiny profit for the day

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April One for me. (4/10) J.Nieminen to bt. J.Benneteau @ 1.82 at Pinnacle Fancy Jarkko here, he dominates Benneteau in h2h and he is better on clay than Julien (who was not spectacular in the quallies at all). He has not played a match on clay court this year, but he got off hard courts pretty early and I am sure he will be prepared for this challenge. He would be about 1.6 if he had match practice.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April Nice work there Atko. Good calls.....:ok Davydenko is having a shocking season so far.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April

Nice work there Atko. Good calls.....:ok Davydenko is having a shocking season so far.

Well he is'nt top 10 anymore and should not be treated like it.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April Tomas Berdych -4.5 AH vs Olivier Rochus. 1.85 @ local (7/10) Berdych initially was not scheduled to play this but asked for a wild card. Hope he does not mess around and will play serious stuff. Rochus once again doing miracles (or opponents helping him, no idea which is the case this time around) and has managed to win three matches this week, that's including qualies. He had another tough match against Chela, won in three sets, had 15 break points against him, broken seven times, no serve again etc. Berdych on paper should be able to destroy him with little energy wasted. Maybe Rochus will survive one set but overall can't see him having a result here, therefore handicap is a better option than unders. Berdych has covered this line in last 4 matches against Rochus, three of those were on clay. Philipp Kohlschreiber +5 AH vs Roger Federer. 1.79 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Like to oppose Federer in tournaments like this. He never plays his best tennis in non Grand Slam events and don't expect him to have good performance in his first match here this year. Kohly has already played one match, had a tough one against Golubev, but managed to win and that's the most important thing. He was in 1/4 finals here last year so knows the place and obviously has had some decent results. Although Federer leads their H2H 5-0 they have never played on clay and I think 5 games is too big for Swiss player to cover. Also like the looks of overs @ 19.5 games but this would not work if it finishes 6-4, 6-4 in favor of Federer, in this case handicap looks good and don't think Federer winning by better margin than 6-3, 6-4 which would mean push. Ivan Ljubicic to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. 2.65 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Definitely worth a shot to have a crack at Ljubicic at odds like this. Tsonga with all sorts of problems as always, now he's also is without a coach and can always go down with an injury so you never know. He was broken 5 times by Monaco on Monday which is not good. He managed to come back but it will be a lot tougher to come back from a break down against Ljubicic. Ivan lives in this part of the world so has got the proper motivation in a long time to do well again. He destroyed Chardy in the opening round, was not broken and has got decent record against Tsonga, having beaten him 2 times out of 4. Ljubicic has come out on top in their only match contested on clay. That was in Madrid two years ago, 6-4, 7-5. Odds were similar to those that are available today.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April

One for me. (4/10) J.Nieminen to bt. J.Benneteau @ 1.82 at Pinnacle:ok:ok

Got there in the end.

[blank_frackis]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April Stepanek at 3/1 (Ladbrokes) looks extremely tempting against Murray. Murray is in abysmal form, plays poorly on clay at the best of times and was hammered in the first match he played at Monte Carlo last year in fairly similar circumstances. I expect Murray to turn it around a little as we near the French Open, but I think Monte Carlo is too early for him. Stepanek certainly isn't any great shakes either, but if Murray was playing a traffic cone with a racquet taped to it and you were getting 3/1 on the cone I'd be taking it.

[pupsaa]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April

Philipp Kohlschreiber +5 AH vs Roger Federer. 1.79 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Like to oppose Federer in tournaments like this. He never plays his best tennis in non Grand Slam events and don't expect him to have good performance in his first match here this year. Kohly has already played one match, had a tough one against Golubev, but managed to win and that's the most important thing. He was in 1/4 finals here last year so knows the place and obviously has had some decent results. Although Federer leads their H2H 5-0 they have never played on clay and I think 5 games is too big for Swiss player to cover. Also like the looks of overs @ 19.5 games but this would not work if it finishes 6-4, 6-4 in favor of Federer, in this case handicap looks good and don't think Federer winning by better margin than 6-3, 6-4 which would mean push.

And why wouldn't it work for 6-4, 6-4? 20 > 19.5, no? :unsure

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April

And why wouldn't it work for 6-4' date=' 6-4? 20 > 19.5, no? :unsure[/quote'] Was drunk when was writing it :lol I don't know what was I thinking about

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April I'll take a few today. Agreed with Psycho on a couple, even though he was drunk ;) Olivier Rochus vs Tomas Berdych- Berdych -4.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (6/10) Price has slipped for this one since last night but still happy to take anything below a (-5) handicap for the Czech. As psycho mentioned, Berdych has opted to be a wildcard in Monte Carlo, which to me says that he wants to get some clay court matchtime under his belt so he should be up for this one rather than him being here to tank. If this was the case, there aren't any benefits for him playing this week so he should want to win some matches. Rochus, beating Chela is a good result on paper but the stats show that on serve for both players, it was a horror show. 15 break points on serve for the Belgian is poor even for clay tennis and he was thankful that Chela gave him almost as many opportunities on serve. Berdych's serve is alot better than that of Chela's and Rochus won't get as many opportunities, and if Rochus' serve doesn't improve, Berdych should have a fairly straight forward win today. Ernests Gulbis vs Milos Raonic- Raonic +2.5 handicap- Evens Bet365- (4/10) Slightly favouring the wonderkid here over the tempermental Latvian in this one. Raonic has set the tennis world alight this year over on the hard courts with his near enough unstoppable serve and powerful forehand whilst Gublis has been patchy. I know he had some good results on the clay last year, a couple of quarter finals and a semi appearence but as I mentioned Gulbis has a well known tendancy to get frustrated and go missing if things aren't going his way. Raonic with his huge serve means he will get plenty of cheap points on serve and Gulbis could well lose focus due to this as he won't be able to get into any sort of rhythm. I know Raonic dropped that terrible set to Llodra the other day, but that was his first proper match on clay for over a year so I'm putting it down to rustiness and adapting to the conditions. If his serve is on form, he's got a definite chance in this one and could easily pinch a set, if not the match. Anyways if he holds serve 12 service games in the match and loses in 2 tie breaks, the handicap is still valid ;). Fancy the Canadian to keep it fairly tight though and taking this at a decent price. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs Ivan Ljubicic- Ljubicic to win- 6/4 Bet365- (4/10) Taking Ljubicic for the win here rather than the insurance of the handicap as I wasn't convinced by Tsonga at all yesterday against Monaco. Alot of breaks in that match, and Tsonga, to win matches and play well needs his serve on form which wasn't the case yesterday. Ljubicic hammered Chardy the other day, saving all 3 of his break points and outplaying the Frenchman in all areas on Chardy's favoured surface. Ljubicic has won the only meeting on clay between the two players and I'll take his to edge this one as a slight dog.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April

Tomas Berdych -4.5 AH vs Olivier Rochus. 1.85 @ local (7/10) WIN Ivan Ljubicic to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. 2.65 @ Pinnacle (5/10) WIN Philipp Kohlschreiber +5 AH vs Roger Federer. 1.79 @ Pinnacle (6/10) LOSS

Federer was possessed today and Kohly really did not help himself either with one of the worst performances I've seen from him. Good job on Ljubicic (Fishy also had him) coming back from a break down in both sets.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April

I'll take a few today. Agreed with Psycho on a couple, even though he was drunk ;) Olivier Rochus vs Tomas Berdych- Berdych -4.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (6/10) Ernests Gulbis vs Milos Raonic- Raonic +2.5 handicap- Evens Bet365- (4/10) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs Ivan Ljubicic- Ljubicic to win- 6/4 Bet365- (4/10)

WIN WIN WIN Full house today. Gulbis went on a sulk after a point went against him in the first set for an apparant double bounce. Ljubicic recovered well as Psycho mentioned and the Berdych-Rochus affair was a good one to watch but Berdych always having another gear to step into when in trouble. Just hope Chelsea can overcome the 1-0 deficit tonight for a perfect day :cheers

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April

Just hope Chelsea can overcome the 1-0 deficit tonight for a perfect day :cheers

Hopefully, they won't :dude

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April

Hopefully' date=' they won't :dude[/quote'] The joys of being a Chelsea fan :\

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April One for me today. Marin Cilic is no wonderman on clay but he showed he is up for it this week by dismantling Filippo Volandri 6-2 6-1 on Monday. Volandri isn't complete cannon fodder on clay and that's a good guage of where Cilic is on the red brick. He meets Pere Riba, another clay courter of similar ability to Volandri. Riba's handy enough in rallies but can go dreadfully awry on serve. Cilic was good in that department against Volandri. There's a class difference between these two players and Cilic, despite being on his less favoured surface, is my heavy favourite here. MARIN CILIC -5 GAMES AH looks coverable against a fairly average clay player. Reccommendation Marin Cilic -5 games AH @ 1.99 with 188bet 6pts :hope

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April Back into the action with two. (4/10) G.Monfils (-2.5) to bt. D.Gimeno-Traver @ 1.83 at Bet365 I know he had a lot of time off, but Gimeno-Traver is a horrible player these days and Monfils can beat him even with an under-par preformance. We all know this is all about Monfils and if he can play at least to his par. I think he can, so I will take the handicap. A lot of time off, but a huge gap in class. (4/10) J.Melzer (-1.5) to bt. R.Haase @ 1.83 at Bet365 Cannot have this line at all. Melzer is the better player and I am not worried about that loss to Petzschner really. Haase is overrated after beating Davydenko, who (as was mentioned) should not be treated as a top10 player anymore. Melzer will not mess around and the handicap is minimal.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April

Back into the action with two. (4/10) G.Monfils (-2.5) to bt. D.Gimeno-Traver @ 1.83 at Bet365 :ok:ok (4/10) J.Melzer (-1.5) to bt. R.Haase @ 1.83 at Bet365 :ok:ok

No worries there.

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April

No worries there.

I followed you and there WERE worries with Melzer - but otherwise good calls, congrats

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April

I followed you and there WERE worries with Melzer - but otherwise good calls' date=' congrats[/quote'] Exactly. Deliberately throwing away the first raised another question mark over his fair play status.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April

Exactly. Deliberately throwing away the first raised another question mark over his fair play status.

I was watching Stepanek - do you know what happened in the first set at 4-3*? I saw Melzer getting the first point and then they had to sit down for some reason and Melzer was looking angry at one point.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April

I was watching Stepanek - do you know what happened in the first set at 4-3*? I saw Melzer getting the first point and then they had to sit down for some reason and Melzer was looking angry at one point.

Missed out on that. Perhaps it was some sort of health issues, as there were medical staff around the Austrian after the first set. He said he was ok and that was that. Anyway, he made tons of unforced errors in the first set which he could have won if wanted. Haase kinda checked out after terrible Fergus Murphy robbed him of a possible point. Melzer should have won easily in straights if he wanted.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April

Missed out on that. Perhaps it was some sort of health issues' date=' as there were medical staff around the Austrian after the first set. He said he was ok and that was that. Anyway, he made tons of unforced errors in the first set which he could have won if wanted. Haase kinda checked out after terrible Fergus Murphy robbed him of a possible point. Melzer should have won easily in straights if he wanted.[/quote'] Yep, he should have - but win is a win. I wonder what the odds will be against Almagro.

[martinhattrick]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April Followerd on Melzer, nice work guys might be off topic but does anyone know what is happening with pinnacle?

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April Tommy Robredo is having a pretty good week. He's swept aside Ivan Dodig and Fernando Verdasco in pretty straightforward fashion and I think he's got a nice match-up next against Viktor Troicki. These two met here last year and Robredo won 6-4 6-3. Troicki subsequently beat him at Rolland Garros but Robredo was hideous in the Slams last year. He's been far more reliable this season, especially on the red dirt. Troicki's been much-improved after last year's Davis Cup but for me, he's vulnerable on the red brick. His serve doesn't get as much purchase and his movement is poor. Robredo can be clinical in these conditions. Troicki has alreadt struggled with Fabio Fognini and Jean-Rene Lisnard, and that's poor form going into this. I think Tommy Robredo -2.5 games is an attractive bet. I allows for a couple of tight sets in the Spaniard's favour, which is a possibility. Either way, I expect the Spaniard to see this through and cover the line. Andy Murray also appeals to me here. Really impressed with how the Scot played against Radek Stepanek and I reckon he's got a good match-up against Gilles Simon here. Simon's not really a clay courter. His performances against Thomaz Bellucci and Albert Montanes are good on paper but both his opponents were very under par and didn't capitalise on decent chances to break the Frenchman. Andy Murray -2.5 games therefore looks a nice bet to me, as he's the sort of player who can get in and about Simon and break him down. He's won the last four meetings on a variety of surfaces, including clay, without dropping a set, and his game matches up well because Simon can't out-hit him. Could be some long rallies but Murray seems motivated and driven to do well this week. I think he's a better clay courter than Simon and can take the match and the line. I'm also going to fire on Ivan Ljubicic +3 games AH in his match with Tomas Berdych. I've been very impressed with the big Croat this week. He's serving nicely, moving well and operating off both flanks. Berdych is a player who is struggling to put away opponents at present. Quite often gets the job done but can go missing for a set and his serve hasn't been as potent as last year. The H2H is 2-2 but the last meeting was in 2008, so no real clues there. Even still, Ljubicic looks comfortable and in the zone at present, and I think he'll be very competitive here. The line is priced at 2.29, which seems far too high for me. Happy enough to back the bald Croat here. Reccommendations Tommy Robredo -2.5 games @ 1.901 with Pinnacle 7pts Andy Murray -2.5 games @ 1.877 with Pinnacle 5pts Ivan Ljubicic +3 games AH @ 2.29 with Pinnacle 4pts :hope

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April Great minds think alike :D (4/10) T.Robredo (-2.5) to bt. V.Troicki @ 1.90 at Pinnacle Robredo is the better player on clay courts and has cruised through his two matches in Monte Carlo. Viktor Troicki had some difficulties against Fabio Fognini and it seems that his serve is not working very well at the moment. Robredo will like the conditions and should beat the Serbian player comfortably. (4/10) A.Murray (-2.5) to bt. G.Simon @ 1.87 at Pinnacle Murray wants to impress here after his horrible run in the United States and he was good against Stepanek. Simon is not a player I like on clay too much. Also, this is not a good match-up for him, as he does not have any real weapons against someone like Murray, who can defend all day long.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April Funny it is but I have almost the same stuff. Hope we all don't get disappointed at the end of the day. 1) Andy Murray -2.5 AH vs Gilles Simon. 1.85 @ Pinnacle (6/10) After suffering 4 defeats in a row Murray looks motivated and hungry once again and all that despite playing on clay which he does not like tbh. Was a bit sloppy in the second set against Stepanek but the win was never in doubt. As for the match against Simon both have got great return games, Murray can serve better and that will be decisive in this match. Normally would not get odds like this for Murray to win and handicap so having straight away. 2) Tommy Robredo -2.5 AH vs Victor Troicki. 1.83 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Troicki has been very poor this week. Playing a tie-break against amateur player Lisnard is really bad and he had a nightmare match against Fognini yesterday as well, broken seven times. Robredo impressive against Dodig and also Verdasco, although it was all about Verdasco missing every other ball and making tons of unforced errors. Nevertheless Robredo was better player on the day. He beat Troicki in this tournament comfortably last year and I'm backing him to do it again. He's far more better player on clay than Troicki is. 3) Frederico Gil vs Gael Monfils. Over 21.5 games. 1.85 @ Bwin (5/10) Monfils making yet another comeback and managed to crush Traver but not without trouble and it has to be pointed out that Traver really was not helping himself as usually being as bad as he is. Gil is completely different animal, can play on clay, actually only on clayu and Monfils has gifted him a set both times they have played, also on hard, so overs in both meetings and with Monfil's erratic style of play you can not expect him to close this one out easily. 21.5 games is a bit short here and can work in two sets obviously but I have a feeling that this one will have three. 4) Ivan Ljubicic to beat Tomas Berdych. 3.54 @ Pinnacle (4/10) Outrageous odds for sure and really no reason for that. Saw both in previous round. Ljubicic managed to came back from break down in both sets against Tsonga. Had he played a bit more positive ball game and attacked more, he could have had it in the bag a lot more easier. Berdych did the job against Rochus but was all over the place and won only because was playing very weak oponent. Berdych was struggling on serve, the first serve was missing big time and Rochus had seven break points taking just one of those. I think Ljubicic has got very good chance of an upset in this one. He's playing at home and feels very good about this place. Not much to read into H2H which is 2-2 but no matches on clay. On current form I'm backing Ljubicic. :hope

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 11-17 April Couple of nice ones for tomorrow I think. Ljubicic vs Berdych OVER 21.5 games @ 1.87 (Boyles:6pts) Think this has tough match written all over it, unless Ljubo doesnt want to play but I doubt that after he beat Tsonga. Berdych hasnt looked right to me in a while, the odd good display like against Nadal but numerous struggles aswell. Same stuff at times against Rochus, pity Rochus has no serve as he was causing some troubles. Ljubicic has a bit more in his locker...can be tough when he finds a rythm on serve...hope thats the case here. Line is not that high. Murray to beat Simon @ 1.581 (Pinnacle:6pts) Cant be bothered with handicaps even though he should cover if he wins. Watched him vs Stepanek today, he was too good...terrible match-up for Stepanek as Murray is a good returner, can hit passing shots...and he cruised bar a bit of a hiccup in the second....Simon cant hit through Murray, he has openly admitted that Murray is one of his worst opponents...in essence he does most things better that Simon....unless he reverts back to his Donald Young level performance I think Murray should take this. Gil +3 games AH vs Monfils @ 1.990 (Pinnacle:3pts) Smaller bet on Gil on the plus aswell....watched Monfils today vs Gimeno and wasnt impressed really...still looks rusty, first set was very much in the balance and Gimeno has been horrible for a while in all honesty...think Monfils is worth opposing until he shows good form. Gil has been good this week...beat youngster Del Bonis, Cipolla, Stakhovsky and Flo Mayer all in 2 sets here so far...pretty good results. He is a decent player, solid dirtballer but also seems on good form....has also taken a set in both previous matches with Monfils so this is worth a go IMO. gl!