Catch those 2 years olds

[ONEDUNME]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds

Folkestone 2.20 5f -------------------- 1- Trainers first season , has had no winners from 10 runners [all aged] so far. Fallon is an interesting booking. Cockney Rebel's first crop of 2yo's , will be better over further i would imagine 2- A Haynes - 2 wins from 20 in March/April - 6 seasons - The horse's sire 2nd season at stud and all 5 winners won on Good or G/F , the 21 who ran on officially G/S to Heavy were all beaten 3- D Donovan - No FTO wins from 12 2YO runners in 2 seasons. Sire's winning ave is 9.1f . 4- W G M Turner - Despite his traditional win in the Brocklesby , he still has had only 3 wins from 38 runners in Mar/Apr in 4 seasons and one of those was in the Brocklesby !! According to the RP he has had only 4 2yo Maidens winners in the past 5 seasons from 105 runners Sire's winning ave is 7.2f 5- M RIMMER - No wins from 8 2yo runs since starting up 2 seasons ago with only one 2yo winner from 21 runs since '08 and that was on the AW. Sire's ave is 6.7f and was a high class sprinter. 6- JS MOORE - Only 2 from 51 runners in 9 seasons and has had NO FTO winner in 6 of those season's. Had only one winner from 22 runners in April since 2008 Also by Cockney Rebel Summary - No one trainer stands out tbh so i'll take a chance on one of the 2 runners to have already seen a racecourse , QUEEN OF THE HOP , finished 2nd on the AW just 5 days ago and the stable had the 3rd in the Brocklesby

With you again mate:hope

[Haystacks]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds Yes, gun to my head QUEEN OF THE HOP, but not one I'll be backing myself. I did think the stable's Crowning Star looked like a definite future winner in yesterday's race though.

[Quackers]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds Hey, really interesting thread on 2 year old's. Something I am very interested in so good luck with it. Looking at the 2 races tomorrow, I would much rather back Lord of the shadows at Windsor than take a short price on queen of the hop. Hannon's record with 2 year old's at Windsor is pretty good plus they introduced the classy Zebedee in this race last year. Not saying Lord of the shadows will be as classy, but this one should certainly know his job first time up. As for the Folkstone race I would be interested in backing The Dancing Lord if getting a decent price for it. One from this stable showed significant improvement switched to the turf to win the Brockelsby on Saturday. Could be the same story with this one, who did show plenty of speed on debut. Was well beaten in the end by what looked like a pretty useful horse who was well backed.

[Haystacks]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds Personally, I'd be slightly wary of that. He's So Cool was a beaten 5/4 fav on debut whereas The Dancing Lord was 20/1 on his debut. I think that says something about how the Bill Turner stable views the two horses. On the other hand, this looks like a pretty weak race, so who knows?

[Quackers]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds Yeh good point. That 2 year old stat of Bill Turners is pretty interesting but I would just be against Queen of the hop. It may go on to win easily but I couldn't back it at the price it will be tomorrow.

[jtw1]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds Windsor 2.40 5f ------------------- 1 - B MILLMAN - No FTO winners in the past 4 seasons 2 - A NEWCOMBE - No FTO winners in 7 season 3 - R HANNON - 24 FTO 2yo winners from 104 runners in March/April since 2002 . 4 - B HILLS - 11 2yo debut winners from 47 runs in April 5 - P COLE - 2 wins from 24 debutants in April 6 - R BECKETT -2 wins from 11 debutants in April 7 - J GALLAHER - No FTO wins since 2002 8 - D EVANS - 3 wins and a sh-hd 2nd already this season and this runner has already been out when 4th 9 days ago 9 - R BROTHERTON - No FTO wins since '99 10 and 11 - D EVANS - see above Sires ave shows a negative for SILVERHEELS and SEVEN YEAR ITCH CIARA BOO not yet 2 , born 14th April Of the 4 leaft LORD OF THE SHADOWS will probably start quite a short odds fav due to the stable form at the course but i noticed that neither he nor MIDDLETON FLYER hold any future big race sales entries. Could be worth trying SEA ODDESSY from the Hills yard who have a 21% strike rate with their 2yo's at Windsor . Saver on TANGO SKY

[Haystacks]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds

Yeh good point. That 2 year old stat of Bill Turners is pretty interesting but I would just be against Queen of the hop. It may go on to win easily but I couldn't back it at the price it will be tomorrow.

And of course The Dancing Lord is all the rage this morning. WTF do I know? Update: It bolted in. DOH!

[Haystacks]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds Kempton 2.20 5f ------------------- Just the one 2yo race today and only 4 runners on the AW. jtw1 hasn't posted yet (hope he doesn't mind me highjacking his thread; if so, apologies jtw1), so here they are: 1. SNOWED IN (JS Moore). Ran in the race won by Redair, but finished a long way back. 2. THAT'S DANGEROUS (Charlton). Very rare early runner for this yard. 3. MULTI BLESSING (A.Jarvis). Poor FTO 2yo record. 4. MRS MOP (Hannon). Lots of FTO 2YO winners. Interestingly, all four runners are from first season sires. Amadeus Wolf has already had a winner this year (Hamza at Musselburgh), and neither Multi Blessing nor That's Dangerous have reached their second birthday yet. I think the age/trainer/sire selection has to be MRS MOP, although it is a real concern that this horse was forecast odds-on and is now 6/5, with all the money coming instead for That's Dangerous. It has to be said that the Hannon 2yos haven't lived up to expectations so far (Kylassie and Lord Ofthe Shadows were both beaten as short-priced favs), so I'll be keeping my money in my pocket today. Result: Yet another 2YO disappointment for Hannon, as Snowed In indirectly franks the Brocklesby form with That's Dangerous in 2nd.

[jtw1]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds No problem if you want to post on here Hatstacks , i won't be trying to cover every race due to time limitations . Good decision tnot to have a bet :ok Nottingham 5f Novice Stakes ---------------------------- Despite J MOORE winning the 2yo race [above] on the AW today , that was only a 4 runner race which was run nearly 3 secs above standard . J CARROLL's runner has already won on the AW so will be fit enough but the strike rate over the past season's isn't encouraging with only 1 prev win from 44 first and second time out runners. The majority of the remainder have worse FTO % with the exception of D EVANS and M CHANNON. CHIOSIREZ makes her debut while CHOICE OF REMARK has had the benefit of a previous outings on the AW . I usually find Fillies are outpointed by the Colts at this time of the year so i'll overlook CHIOSIREZ . I posted this about TRIGGERLO for the Brocklesby in which he finished 6th - TRIGGERLO represents Channon who has a poor record with his 2yo's at Doncaster with only 1 win from 43 runs in 5 season's. Sired by Piccolo who won at G1 and 2 level over the 5f , this one is the best bred for the distance . This one still holds entries for a Maiden Auction and Novice events on Tues/Weds next week and considering the fact that Channons runners come on for their first run and it's not too fancied at this stage [20/1] makes me give it a swerve this time . - The fact that he's running again so quickly and his 2yo SR at Nottingham is 6/37 , far better than his Donc %. I'll Take as early a price about TRIGGERLO as i can :ok

[Quackers]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds I like Choice of Remark in this one. Form boosted by The Dancing Lord winning easily the other day. This horse was very well backed when making an introduction at Lingfield but looked in need of the run. The winner of that maiden is potentially pretty smart but I think Choice of Remark will come on plenty for the run. Anything over 2/1 for this horse and I will be backing it. Dijarvo's win was given a knock by Queen of the Hop's poor run second time out and Triggerlo definitely looks the main danger. Its paid to go with the horses with a run under their belt so far this season and I think it will be between these 3 already raced horses.

[Quackers]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds As for the maiden at Beverley, I would take on the favourite One Kool Dude. Wait for the prices tomorrow but I like Red Tyke, Flying Pickets and Always Ends Well. Think I am right in saying these are 3 of the older horses in the field. Flying Pickets is the best drawn out of the 3. Silvestre De Sousa rides Always Ends well and I am a big fan of this jockey. Red Tyke goes for a stable in great form.

[zoolander]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds

As for the maiden at Beverley' date=' I would take on the favourite One Kool Dude. Wait for the prices tomorrow but I like Red Tyke, Flying Pickets and Always Ends Well. Think I am right in saying these are 3 of the older horses in the field. Flying Pickets is the best drawn out of the 3. Silvestre De Sousa rides Always Ends well and I am a big fan of this jockey. Red Tyke goes for a stable in great form.[/quote'] Flying pickets for me in this one, breed for speed, oldest foal just about, trainer had a couple of two year old first time winners last year, 12-1 at the moment looks a solid each way.

[Haystacks]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds Dijarvo has been declared a NR at Nottingham, which is a shame as I think I might have been laying it if it was favourite. Based on The Dancing Lord's performance at Folkestone, I can see why Choice Of Remark might give Triggerlo a good run. However, I suspect that was probably a pretty poor race, so the Brocklesby runner Triggerlo is my preference, but not one I'll be backing. Based on what we have seen so far, I reckon Monday's Windsor race was by far the best quality, the Brocklesby next, and probably Redair's Kempton win next. I'm going to treat all the other races with some caution until the form lines start to converge. As for the Beverley race today, I've absolutely no idea how One Kool Cat's Dundalk AW form will transfer. However, there is obviously a huge benefit to having had a previous run (and a seemingly good one of that), and that is reflected in his price of 5/6 this morning. Of the debutants, as zoolander says Flying Pickets must be in with a shout of a place based on his decent draw and an early foal date. Plus the fact that this fairly small yard had a 2YO winner FTO at the same course last year, and a winner at this same meeting with Lenny Bee. (And are in form; they won a race with Oneladyowner the other day.)

[Haystacks]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds No previous runners in either of the two 2YO races today. Ripon 2.10 Won last year by Cocktail Charlie, who finished the year rated 95, so this could be a half decent race to follow. The favourite is Princess Banu. Oasis Dream doesn't get many runners this early in the year, but obviously Channon's 2YOs are his bread and butter. The yard has only had one 2YO runner so far, Triggerlo, who ran in the Brocklesby and then disappointed fav backers at Nottingham yesterday. Kodiac King is by Kodiac and comes from a strong 2YO yard. However, this is one is not yet 2 yrs old, which may be significant in a potentially reasonably good quality race. Almond Branches is by Dutch Art, a first season sire who got his first winner with Miss Work Of Art (form franked by The Dancing Lord at Folkestone). George Moore has had hardly any 2YO FTO winners in the past, so I couldn't fancy this one. David Evans has had three non-favourite FTO 2YO winners already, so No Legs (sired by Camacho, who has had some very precocious youngsters) has to be in with a chance. Queens Revenge comes from a stable that has farmed this race in recent years (winning 4 out of the last 5). Multiplex is a first season sire, so it's hard to know what to make of him. Alejandro is by first season sire Dark Angel, who but has had two winners this week (including Lily's Angel FTO for the same trainer). One worry with this horse is that it was foaled on 20 Apr. This was forecast favourite in the RP. The early betting was definitely against it, but it has since come back in from 10-1 to 8-1. One I quite liked the look at first glance is Top Coat, out of Exceed and Excel. This one is very weak in the market this morning, but sometimes the Johnston maidens do go in at surprisingly long odds Red Shadow is by Royal Applause but is a 40-1 shot. This is a very open race. It's possible that the Channon/Easterby runners are a little too short due to trainer reputation. The value may possibly lie with TOP COAT (e/w). Kempton 5.55 This one is for fillies only and doesn't look great quality. Majestic Rose is the Channon runner and if Princess Banu bolts in, this one will probably shorten up. The sire is Imperial Dancer, who had a recent winner with The Dancing Lord, second time out. Marygold is by first season sire Cockney Rebel, whose progeny may possibly need further than 5f. The stable very rarely turns out 2YO debutant winners, but did get one last August. Sister Guru is the youngest horse in the race and comes from a stable that very rarely runs 2YOs. Van Go Go. This is another one by Dutch Art, so likely precocious and the trainer has had a few early season FTO 2YO winners over the years. XYZZY is another by Royal Applause, but comes for a stable that isn't known for early debutant 2YO winners . Tentative selection: VAN GO GO. 2.55 Result. Well, at least I got the 'value' bit right! Top Coat was backed all the way in from 10-1 (had been available at 14-1 earlier) into 6-1, but didn't come anywhere. Easterby won it again, and his horse (which had to squeeze through a narrow gap) and Alejandro (also backed right in) scrapped it out. They both look pretty decent for this time of year.

[Quackers]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds I like Marygold in the Kempton maiden. I see the yard's sole juvenile in 2010 won on its debut. With Richard Hughes booked for this one tonight I guess they are hoping for a big run. Absolute guessing game really but I will be backing this one

[jtw1]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds MARYGOLD was a nr and CHANNON bags the winner at 9/4 jt An interesting 5f Auction Maiden at Newcastle on Friday - J WEYMES has had 1 win from 13 FTO 2yo's in April since 2003 and did not have a 2yo runner in April in 2 of those seasons L STUBBS has had 1 win from 21 since 2002 , had no runners in 2 seasons. T DASCOMBE has had 3 from 23 since 2006 , no runners in one season. D EVANS has had 2 wins from 12 2yo runners on Turf this season R FAHEY has had 1 win from 4 runners on Turf this season The STUBBS runner is technically not 2 yet and is bred to be better at further. J WEYMES stable has only had 1 runner this season [unp at 66/1] so not a lot to go on . The EVANS and FAHEY runners are sure to be well supported but i think it could be worth trying the DASCOMMBE runner - MARFORD MISSILE - as this one is by a very speedy sire , MAJESTIC MISSILE , a winner over 5f at Group 3 grade and in his first seaosn as a sire , last year , he produced 6 winners of which 4 won FTO . A Jan 28th colt the trainer has a very good record in Maiden events and usually hits a double figure % rate each season . With the EVANS/FAHEY runners sure to attract the main money , this one could run a nice race at decent odds for a 5 runner race .

[Haystacks]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds Quite surprisingly, Forevertheoptimist (Stubbs) is the one that has been backed into favouritism this morning. I was hoping for 4-1 or better on Majestic Missile, but it's 3rd fav at 100-30. I might place a small wager if it drifts out.

[jtw1]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds Hope you got better than the winning SP of 3/1 :nana , Haystacks :hope Must admit that this is the kind of thing i'm looking for , as well as trainers who have their 2yo fit to win FTO , and thats a 1st or 2nd season sire who has a high[ish] of % of FTO winners to runners and especially over sprint distances . MAJESTIC MISSILE looks like fitting the bill , with 10 wins from 84 two year old runs in his first season and , as i stated yesterday , 4 of the 6 individual winners managed to strike first time , one was 2nd then won and it took the other 2 outings before winning . Try to keep an eye on his progeny making their racecourse appearance , esp with a trainer who knows how to win with them FTO.

[Haystacks]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds Marford Missile drifted in the betting all morning, but then very well backed on the course. (And Ortea followed the exact same betting pattern, but was unplaced!). On to today: Lingfield 3.30 A pretty weak auction maiden in which there are only five runners (two debutants). Umph (Evans) has already raced twice. The fact that his second was to a 20-1 debutant stablemate doesn't really inspire confidence. Si Sealy (Evans) is a debutant by first-season sire Lawman, and is probably the more attractive of the Evans runners. Joey Hayes (Quinlan) ran in the Brocklesby, without really catching the eye. Dawn Lightning (McCabe) made a promising debut (second to Jack Who's He) last week. Ermyn Flyer (Marshall) is another debutant. However, he is by Sakhee, who has had very few 2YO winners, and nor has the trainer. DAWN LIGHTNING holds the best-looking form of those that have raced before, and is also favoured by the weight conditions of the race (getting 4lb from Umph and 2lb from Si Sealy due to auction prices). (For some reason there seems to be an autolink on the word 'Dawn' that I can't get rid of!)

[jtw1]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds DAWN LIGHTNING wins at 13/8f :ok Windsor 5.30 Maiden 5f ----------------------- D EVANS has 3 in the race and after a good start to the 2yo year he has struggled with 11 loser's since JAWKINGS win last saturday. 2 of his are Fillies with the one colt being by 5/6 f sire. J BOYLE has not had a FTO 2yo winners in the past 9 seasons . R HANNON's always improve for their first outing and his runner here was 2nd to SILVERHEELS over C/D last Monday. Stable won the race last season. B MEEHAN only 1 FTO win from 32 runners in Mar/Apr in 8 seasons. R BECKETT -2 wins from 11 debutants in April by Amadeus Wolf who has sired a winner and 2 thirds from 4 runners this season. A McCABE - DAWN LIGHTNING won at Lingfield yesterday but had the benefit of an outings , generally below average FTO wins. Selection - LORD OF THE SHADOWS will start fav and probably odds-on at that . In search of a better return i'm going for R BECKETT's SERIOUS SPENDER . This yard can bring them out first time and has had 3 winners from 8 runners in the past 14 days , their 2 yo runner here last week ran a respectable 5th behind Hannon's entry last week so they should have an idea how good this one is .

[Haystacks]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds Yesterday Lord Ofthe Shadows justified heavy odds-on, with Serious Spender taking a promising 2nd. Sthl 3.40 Here are today's runners with sire in brackets followed by pre-2011 early wins/runs for debutants by that sire 1. (Catcher In The Rye 1/4) Evans 2. (Librettist 0/3) D'Arcy 3. (Trade Fair 0/3) Turner 4. (Araafa 0/1) Johnston 5. (Elnadim 1/8) Barron 6. (Clodovil 1/7) Abercandy 7. (Namid 3/34) Ffrench Davis 8. (Auction House 1/15) McCabe None of these sires have had a 2YO winner in 2011, and none of them has a particularly good early season first time out strike rate. Moving on to trainers, David Evans has had 3 2YO winners in 2011, Bill Turner 2 and Alan McCabe 1. David Evans is the only one of these three to have produced a winner FTO, but his runner today is a very late April foal. After Bill Turner's 2nd TO success with He's So Cool in the Brocklesby and then The Dancing Lord at Folkestone, it not unreasonable to suspect similar improvement from Dougie Boy, who finished 3rd to Jack Who's He at Leicester, a race that received a boost when the second placed Dawn Lightning won at the weekend. The McCabe runner Mousie would have to improve a lot on his 4th placed debut, as the form of that race looks a little weak. I think it will take a fairly decent debutant to beat DOUGIE BOY, as long as he can handle the fibresand.

[Quackers]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds Find these 2 year old races at Southwell probably the hardest to work out. Even though the form of Dougie Boy was given a boost by Dawn Lightning winning the other day, I don't think I will be backing that one here. The 2 I would concentrate on here are Bojangle and Mitchum. Mitchum hails from the Barron stable who like to have winners here and although they seem to be hitting the bar with plenty of their runners, I think this one can go well here. Speedily bred and should know his job first time out. Any money for the horse would be encouraging. Bojangle is also quite speedily bred and this one interests me because of the jockey booking. Champion booked to ride the horse which could mean they are expecting a big run from the horse. Wait for the prices but if there is any early money for the Barron horse then I will probably back that horse alone.

[Quackers]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds I like Mitchum at 4/1 here. Backed it each way lol

[jayalexander]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds Barron has a stunning record at Southwell.

[Haystacks]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds Very good call Quackers! (I stayed away from this race in the end, partly because of the issue of which horses would like/dislike the fibresand.)

[jtw1]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds 2.25 Newmarket 5f Conditions Stakes ------------------------------------ Only 5 runners with debutant CHILLIE BILLIE sprint-bred but the stable not too great at FTO wins , 2 from 26 . SABUSA beaten by 2 of D EVANS lto of which the 2nd in that race has since been beaten again. THE DANCING LORD won well lto in a Cl 6 at Folkestone which was a poor race and the winner had the benefit of a previous outing . TELL DAD will start as fav being from the Hannon stable but with 3 debutants being beaten , narrowly but beaten , and sired by a top class miler i wouldn't want to take odds-on this one especially as the selection , JACK WHO'S HE , is race-fit from providing this thread with a winning start by beating DAWN LIGHTNING [won next time out ] The Hannon runner may well prove to be a lot better in time but with race fitness and breeding on his side i'll take a chance on Evans runner in this race .

[Quackers]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds Quite impressive for me although hasn't beaten much. Tomorrow there are a couple of interesting 2 year old races. Firstly the 2.25 Newmarket. The Dancing Lord did me a favour when winning second time out. Showed plenty of pace that day and pulled right away from the field to win very easily. The jockey didn't have to get too serious on the horse and there should be more to come. Jack whos he was an impressive winner first time out but had to work a little harder for his win. Should come on plenty for that run and has to be feared. The only other one to consider for me is the Hannon newcomer. Hannon's 2 year olds always have to be feared but I like the dancing lord here. He can put his experience to good use here and burn these off. Jockey takes off 7lb as well which helps but I am hoping he has too much pace for these. Should be a good price come tomorrow as well.

[Haystacks]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds Newm 2.25 A conditions contest in which Jack Who's He has to give weight all around (including to previous winner The Dancing Lord). However, the form of his Leicester win looks solid and he looks the best of the three with previous runs. The debutants in this race are helped by a 3lb allowance. Chillie Billie is sired by Piccolo, who has had a few early season debutants go in, and his trainer has had some early 2YO success in the past couple of years. However, Hannon's Tell Dad looks like the bigger threat to my selection, JACK WHO'S HE. Catt 2.00 At the other end of the spectrum, we have a selling contest for early season flops. CIARO BOO has participated in two of the hottest 2YO races so far (beating a couple of today's rivals in the process), and could well break her maiden here. Of the others, Nannerl looks the one with by far the most scope for making an improvement on her debut run. Update: Ciaro Boo is a non-runner, so this looks like an easy race for NANNERL. However, not really a backable proposition at odds of 8/13.

[Hotpot Kid]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds

2.25 Newmarket 5f Conditions Stakes ------------------------------------ Only 5 runners with debutant CHILLIE BILLIE sprint-bred but the stable not too great at FTO wins , 2 from 26 . SABUSA beaten by 2 of D EVANS lto of which the 2nd in that race has since been beaten again. THE DANCING LORD won well lto in a Cl 6 at Folkestone which was a poor race and the winner had the benefit of a previous outing . TELL DAD will start as fav being from the Hannon stable but with 3 debutants being beaten , narrowly but beaten , and sired by a top class miler i wouldn't want to take odds-on this one especially as the selection , JACK WHO'S HE , is race-fit from providing this thread with a winning start by beating DAWN LIGHTNING [won next time out ] The Hannon runner may well prove to be a lot better in time but with race fitness and breeding on his side i'll take a chance on Evans runner in this race .

jtw1 and Haystacks - Good shout, cheers ;)

[Quackers]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds Good shout guys. My pick was totally outclassed. Battled really well to beat Tell Dad who I think will be pretty decent the way he travelled through the race.