homunculus Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 Does Federer have an advantage over Nadal with the difference in time spent on court v Berdych and Simon? :unsure 2.30 for Federer is tempting me I just pulled the trigger on Fedex > Rafa @2.27 Pinnacle I would say that it's not that much about the time spent on court, but about form. Rafa did not convince me against Berdych, which is far from his best form. The decider was pretty close in the first few games, and Rafa was a bit lucky. Fedex did beat Rafa in London, and then he lost with him in Abu Dhabi exhibition. Miami slower court will suit Rafa better, but I'd say Fedex motivation will be high. If he manages to reduce the number of his mishits, i's gonna be a toss coin. So I go with better odds, small stake, mostly for having fun while watching the match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homunculus Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 Also going for this Fish vs Djokovic: Fish + 1.5 sets @2.95 local bookie Fish did show several times in this tournament that he fears nothing and big boys should be careful when playing with him. It would be a time waste to write about the players styles and forms. Both are top players in the best shape of their lives. So I shall try to look at it from the different point of view. The game starts at 13 pm local time, and the prospects are good the weather will be hot and humid, although not necessarily sunny. Djoko does not like playing in such conditions, while Fish does not care. It's going to be a big pressure on Djoko, and if he wins the first set, he might tank a bit in the second. All in all, odds around 3 are a must try. GL :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 Thought about it for a long time, but here we go. (6/10) R.Nadal to bt. R.Federer @ 1.70 at Pinnacle Basically, I think that Nadal will dominate this rivalry from now on. Federer will be in the matches to come, but I am not sure he will be able to compete with Nadal and Djokovic on equal terms anymore. Expected this to be about 1.55, so this is value for me. Federer is making too many mistakes against lower opposition and Nadal will take his chances imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psycho Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 Rafa Nadal to win the first set against Roger Federer. 1.80 @ Gamebookers (6/10) Have chosen an interesting approach to this match. Saw Rafa last night against Berdych and it was kinda similar stuff to the one he produced against Djokovic in IW final. He was great in the first set but then kind went off the boil and was nowhere near his top form. Federer had a walkover yesterday against Simon who retired after just three games. Not the ideal preparation for Federer who certainly would have wanted to get in some play to better prepare for Nadal. I think Roger might be slow off the blocks and that will allow Rafa to get the better start. I think he can win the first set. As far as the match is concerned, not sure. Kinda fancy Federer, but he's been terrible most of the time, so not gonna go there. So first set for Rafa in this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psycho Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 Rafa Nadal to win the first set against Roger Federer. 1.80 @ Gamebookers (6/10) Well, that was easy... :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 ^ That was a good shout. I was weighing up going in heavy on Nadal to win or Overs in the Total Games since 10am this morning. Pulled the plug on the latter... sigh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valve Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 clay swing starts tonight, locals offering odds for qualies, no handicap lines yet Skugor (vs Witten) @ 1.65 (local) - stake 7/10 Skugor should have the edge here, played most of his carrer matches on clay, also played couple of clay challengers from the start of the year so he should have the feel. He can serve pretty good, and knows how to move on clay. Witten on the other hand is a classic USTA hard surface player that tried to take a shot during last year on european clay challengers and failed. He even recently lost against clayman Zampieri on hard surface. Just expect Skugor to prevail here. Capdeville (vs Dustov) @ 1.45 (local) - stake 7/10 For me odds too high on Chilean. He should do this quite easily if he's on. Dustov lost against Haider-Maurer 6-3 6-1 on clay 2 weeks ago, and I rate Capdeville on this kind of surface a better player. Dustov never made some impact on clay and prefers to play on hard. Maybe some more picks later, GL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valve Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 Adding one. Zemlja (vs Ryderstedt) @ 1.5 (local) - stake 6/10 Taking Grega also. Similar thoughts as previous, Ryderstedst game works best on fast surface, and Grega has much more experience with clay surface. He had some decent results this year and considering that his game works best on slow hard/clay he should prevail here. challenger picks Cipolla (vs Bagnis) @ 1.63 (nordicbet) - stake 5/10 Odds too big on Cipolla. Probably set up this way because Bagnis won agaisnt Falla here, and Cipolla spent a lot time on court in last two rounds. But knowing him as a great fighter just can't overlook this one. He played some nice matches during the hard court swing and continued to produce decent performances in recent months. Last year during this time he had a pretty bad swing and now has the chance to improve his rankings. Bagnis is a well known choker, he managed to screw my bets up couple of times, against a player that can put some pressure on him, doubt he won't crack at some point. Some middle stakes, just because Cipolla after all could be tired, but doubt he will give up easily even if things don't go his way at first. Zeballos (vs Junqueira) - o21.5 @ 1.85 (local) - stake 7/10 Can't see anyone taking this in two sets. Zeballos again trying to make his way up to play ATP events, Junquiera is an veteran of South-American clay challengers. Zeballos won last two meetings, once with 22 games played, other time, another time with 33 games played. Considering the clay as surface, and both of the players, breaks will be offered, so pretty sure for a 3-set match, or atleast a tiebreak (3/4 of their mathces went one set in a tie break). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 (6/10) R.Nadal to bt. R.Federer @ 1.70 at Pinnacle That was easy. One for me today. (4/10) V.Azarenka (-2.5) to bt. M.Sharapova @ 1.87 at Pinnacle Sharapova was quite lucky against Dulgheru and then Petkovic collapsed the next round. Meanwhile, Azarenka was beating the likes of Zvonareva and Clijsters without any problems. Deserves to be a bigger favorite imo, so happy to take this line at the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psycho Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 Also fancy Aza to win. She destroyed Zvonareva and that was a shocker to me, the margin of the win, I mean. She also has beaten Sharapova comfortably last time they played, that was a final as well. And she has won Miami previously. Odds are poor right now, don't want to take handicaps. If anything around evens comes up in-play, will grab that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psycho Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 Awful match by Sharapova Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 She is getting back into it though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psycho Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 She is getting back into it though. Yes, she was. But if you don't have brain, you don't have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valve Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 Levine (vs Ram) @ 2.1 (local) - stake 7/10 Ram on clay?! Like a polar bear in a desert. Classic serve & volley player trying to play some clay (even American), usually doesn't end up well. He's a veteran that played only 12 matches on clay in last 5 years. Don't rate Levine high, but he atleast has some more experience and a decent technique for this kind of surface. Also taking Yani (vs Massu) @ 2.3 (local) - stake 2/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 Yes' date=' she was. But if you don't have brain, you don't have.[/quote'] I am not complaining though. :clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psycho Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 Here's my pick for Sunday's mens' final. Rafael Nadal to win the first set against Novak Djokovic. 1.95 @ Pinnacle (7/10) Going for the same thing as in semies. Nadal has been awesome in the first sets this week and he won the first set against Djokovic in Indian Wells final which he went on to throw away because did not have serve in sets 2 and 3. He will feel a lot more comfortable this time around because the surface is so terribly slow that it will almost feel like playing on clay for Rafa. Just kidding... As far as the real stuff is concerned, fancy Nadal to win, he won't like to get beat by Nole two times in a row. A lot has been made of Djokovic being invicible etc. He has played some really crap and brainless players this week. You could understand that Istomin and Blake would not be up to the task, but Troicki also was poor and even Fish was all over the place. Bare in mind, Mardy had fantastic chances to break Djokovic whilst the Serb was serving for the first set. Fish missed two easy shots at the net and that was that. Rafa prolly won't have so many gifts to offer and I think he'll win this one. Though, once again having just the opening set here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 I agree. (4/10) R.Nadal to bt. N.Djokovic @ 1.82 at Pinnacle The run ends here in my opinion. Nadal's motivation will take him through. Djokovic was not as impressive in Miami in my opinion. Troicki had chances, Anderson had chances, Fish had chances. Of course, they could not take them, but Nadal will. The fact that it will be played early also plays right into Nadal's hands, so I don't see Novak winning the title here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valve Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 Skugor (vs Witten) @ 1.65 (local) - stake 7/10 Capdeville (vs Dustov) @ 1.45 - stake 7/10 Zemlja (vs Ryderstedt) @ 1.5 (local) - stake 6/10 Levine (vs Ram) @ 2.1 (local) - stake 7/10 Yani (vs Massu) @ 2.3 (local) - stake 2/10 Levine second serve was awful, so many double faults and bad percentage of points won on second serve, still he had chances, and gets broken serving @ 6:5 to stay in the match in third set. Yani gave a fight, but didn't quite make it. Zemlja (vs Ram) - 1.55 (local) - stake 7.5/10 Going again against Ram. This time he meets someone who won't be a serve mug like Levine yesterday and really knows how to play clay. Expecting something like yesterdays demolition of Ryderstedt. Also Skugor handicap line against Yoo is a nice bet, but no lines yet out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valve Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 Casablanca qualies Luczak (vs Peya) X Niland (vs Smethurst) X Kukushkin (vs Ziadi) @ 2 (local) - stake 8/10 Three favorites should pass these easily. Kukushkin with his experience here and his play on clay during the years should have no troubles to pass local boy Ziadi. Luczak has 7-0 H2H vs Peya. Most of the matches we're tight, but Peya yesterday got bagled agaisnt Jaziri :fp Luczak was in final of Rabat challanger couple of weeks ago also in Morocco, and if he turns it up see no real chance for Peya. Smethurst also had trouble with Ouahabi, local Moroccan, played a three setter yesterday. Just expecting Conor to make this easy even he isn't some great clay player. Carreno Busta (vs Granollers) @ 1.65 (local) - stake 4/10 This guy is in a rise last couple of weeks, had some nice results in Rabat, yesterday defeated Hernych, he and younger brother Granollers probably met at some junior level, but so far Carreno's got better results. Haven't see him yet play so more of a feel bet on recent weeks, than a real insight in his way of playing. Lower stake for that. Also will try: Bautista-Agut (vs Schukin) @ 3.35 (local) - stake 1.5/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelight Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 I agree. (4/10) R.Nadal to bt. N.Djokovic @ 1.82 at Pinnacle The run ends here in my opinion. Nadal's motivation will take him through. Djokovic was not as impressive in Miami in my opinion. Troicki had chances, Anderson had chances, Fish had chances. Of course, they could not take them, but Nadal will. The fact that it will be played early also plays right into Nadal's hands, so I don't see Novak winning the title here. I dont agree: Djokovic has the same motivation as Nadal, if not biger. Novak was not impressive against Fish only, its true but Nadal was not impressive neither. Against Berdych he was saving the few break points at the beginning of the third set and he was a really out off balance.If Berdych won this game, it would be really hard for Nadal to win. In the same match Nadal received medical attention due to a shoulder injury as well,dont forget that. Against Fed, Rafa played well but not more than that, Federer was miserable, we all saw it. Therefore, I invest my money on Novak. Why? Because Novak v. 2011 is better player then Nadal v. 2011. Its my honest opinion. Do you remember the panic in the eyes of Nadal in the third set of IW final,when it was 15:30 at his service while Djokovic led 4-0? It was the fear of losing the third set to zero and because of that he fought like a lion to win these two games and lost "only" 6:2.Its true that day match is more suitable for Nadal, but the question is what will be the heat and humidity today. It may be the rain again, who knows. All in all Bet 365 has 2,0 on Djokovic. Because of day match , "only" 5/10 Novak win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psycho Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 Here's my pick for Sunday's mens' final. Rafael Nadal to win the first set against Novak Djokovic. 1.95 @ Pinnacle (7/10) WIN A bit messy in the end but managed to do the job. Well done, Rafa! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 A bit messy in the end but managed to do the job. Well done' date=' Rafa! :ok[/quote'] I will regret not taking the 1st set instead even if Nadal wins. Good judgment Psycho. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psycho Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 Rafa to win 2nd @ 0-3 down. Taking 4.75 (3pts) in-play :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psycho Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 Loss but it definitely was worth a shot. Rafa with bad shot selection on too many occasions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 Wanted to bet on Rafa, but the referee is also against him now. That "replay point" decision was so horrible that it is unbelievable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flipskee Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 Rafa will still win this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 Epic match, but awful from Nadal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psycho Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 Rafa so incredibly poor, good thing for him, it's clay coming up now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: Tennis - 21 March - April 4 Great to watch, especially when you've got no money on it. Djoko to end the season unbeaten down to evens ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelight Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Rafa so incredibly poor' date=' good thing for him, it's clay coming up now.[/quote'] :spank You must be joking? Rafa played strong but Novak was better. I am saying again Novak v 2011 is best player in the world on HC. So simple like that. PS Rafa would kill any other player with a such " incredibly poor game", so you are speaking nonsence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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