markmywords Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: Value tips 25/01/2011 Accumulator (9) To Win Barcelona @ 1/12 Win-Draw-Win Barcelona v Almeria Pending £10.00 Liverpool @ 4/7 Win-Draw-Win Liverpool v Fulham Pending Rangers @ 4/9 Win-Draw-Win Hibernian v Rangers Pending Celtic @ 1/2 Win-Draw-Win Celtic v Hearts Pending Real Madrid @ 10/11 Win-Draw-Win Sevilla v Real Madrid Win AC Milan @ evens Win-Draw-Win Sampdoria v AC Milan Win Man Utd @ 4/11 Win-Draw-Win Blackpool v Man Utd Win Arsenal @ 1/7 Win-Draw-Win Arsenal v Ipswich Win Luton @ 4/7 Win-Draw-Win Luton v Grimsby Win Paid 334 a £10 accy sometimes favs are OK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: Value tips oops Backed Germany( as part of an accumulator at 7/10) Am I bad??? Well at least they've shortened to 8/13 now so maybe not so bad:D Eh Andy, never ever bet in friendlies:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kev2oo9 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Re: Value tips As long as reasoning is there doesn't matter if its 1/100 or 100/1 . All here for the same thing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyjkmak Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: Value tips Does one really need to put reasoning if tipping a 1/100 shot??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: Value tips Does one really need to put reasoning if tipping a 1/100 shot??? surely though there is a reason behind every bet irrespective of the price The horse doesnt know its price before they start, does it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyjkmak Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Re: Value tips If that last race by Aeturienne doesn't prove my point then nothing will, I had a small interest on Canni Thinkar and got a really good run for my money... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Re: Value tips I backed Canni Thinkaar and was gutted. Deserved to win, jumped well and given a great ride. :cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Re: Value tips I disagree Andy. I took 4/11 because I thought the horse would win. Whether he wins by a head or by a distance, I still get paid at 4/11. Yours ran a monster, but I'm not so sure it proves your point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyjkmak Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Re: Value tips What I mean Whizzkid is that to take 4/11 you would have to have a sizeable bet to make it worth your while, whereas i placed a relatively small bet and looked to be winning until headed in the shadow of the post. To take such short odds I would be wanting my horse to win on the bridle, I certainly wouldn't have enjoyed it at all, like I said, my small bet gave me a really exciting interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Re: Value tips Yes Walter, but the 2/9 shot you backed yesterday that lost or the 1/10 shot that lost.. It would take a run of at least 6/7 winners in a row just to recover that loss when backing odds-on shots, so i think Andy has a point when he is referring to value! The best horse lost today, Canni Thinkaar was absolutely mugged! PS. I am not criticising how you bet before you fly off the handle! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SIG Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Re: Value tips Yes Walter, but the 2/9 shot you backed yesterday that lost or the 1/10 shot that lost.. It would take a run of at least 6/7 winners in a row just to recover that loss when backing odds-on shots, so i think Andy has a point when he is referring to value! The best horse lost today, Canni Thinkaar was absolutely mugged! PS. I am not criticising how you bet before you fly off the handle! I totally agree Aidy from the value stand point. But as I hope I proved in the staking plan thread, backing at short odds combined with the correct staking plan can produce a profitable system. And I also totally agree with Wizzkid - Doesn't matter if it's a nose, neck, one length, five lengths, etc - A win is a win. Canni Thinkaar may have ran well but who made any profit backing her today? :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Re: Value tips I often find small fields are very unpredictable, the old saying 'the bigger the field the bigger the certainty' rings true. You are usaully guaranteed a decent pace, and cover if the horse needs it. A good true run race doesnt just suit the best horse but if often finds out the weakness in the moderate ones. The form book is full of upsets in 3/4/5 runner races and if you ever need to avoid a shortie then these are the ones, in my opinion of course.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyjkmak Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Re: Value tips I often find small fields are very unpredictable, the old saying 'the bigger the field the bigger the certainty' rings true. You are usaully guaranteed a decent pace, and cover if the horse needs it. A good true run race doesnt just suit the best horse but if often finds out the weakness in the moderate ones. The form book is full of upsets in 3/4/5 runner races and if you ever need to avoid a shortie then these are the ones, in my opinion of course.:ok Excellent point BH, I really think that there are so many factors to take into consideration when choosing your NAP, everyone has their own opinion on this but surely setting out to pick the shortest priced favourite on the day is pretty unimaginnative, just my opinion but it appears I have healthy support on this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Re: Value tips Excellent point BH' date=' I really think that there are so many factors to take into consideration when choosing your NAP, everyone has their own opinion on this but surely [b']setting out to pick the shortest priced favourite on the day is pretty unimaginnative, just my opinion but it appears I have healthy support on this. So your not critcising anybody's way of napping but now we nap just because it's the shortest price horse of the day? Yeah cheers. Just look at the table. I am one of a minority in profit for the year so far. I'm in the semi final of the knockout comp (although I admit there is a tad more luck involved in that (luck is probably the wrong word but struggled to find an alternative)). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyjkmak Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Re: Value tips Sorry that you have taken it personally Whizkid, but if we are looking at profit then it is extremely shortsighted to look at either one month or in this case half way through the month. I won't bore you by asking you to look at the overall profit for the year so far but I think it pretty much proves my point. Like I have said all along, none of this was meant as a personal attack, however it was began out of personal irritaion that some people, and you are certainly not alone here, seem to look for the absolute shortest favourite of the day, now I know this irks you, granted you feel that your method works for you, all I have ever tried to understand is....Is this the only selection you can put up with confidence? Most days I have a selection of horses that I strongly fancy, although there is rarely one below 2/1 in price, but I choose my selection here based on the criteria mentioned at the very beginning of this thread. I know this is just me( although many others concur) but I could almost predict before the BBOTD naps come out which horse you and a few others will choose whereas many of the others select naps which really intrigue and are usually very profitable when they come in. I know you will never come around to my way of thinking, maybe I just don't understand your selection process, but don't take offence as this is supposed to be a debate. we'll probably never agree:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Re: Value tips I think it's clear we'll never agree!! I have already stated that I will never, ever be as profitable as you. I never tried to say I would. Your figures are outstanding and you do it consistently. I truly admire how you pull out quality profit practically every single month. But I simply do not set out to pick the shortest of the day. It is that way at the moment as I am not a jumps boy at all and the all weather is poor currently. Therefore my selections are 'safer' so that I can get through this tricky period and be in a decent position before the proper flat season starts. Yesterday I was torn between Asturienne and Mish Mir. 4/11 and 6/4 respectively. Had Mush Mir been at any other racecourse other than southwell the I'd have napped him, but I don't really like napping at Southwell as you seem to get alot of freak results there, more so than most other tracks imo. Both won. In hindsight I missed out on £1.14 for the table, but that's my problem. The thing that I found strange was that you Asturienne proved your point, yet I could not understand the statement. Canni Thinker jumped the best, travelled the best and 'deserved' to win. But he didn't. He was 2nd at 12/1 in a 4 runner race. That's about as much use to my profit margin as a chocolate fireguard. I just didn't understand where you were coming from. My nap won. I'm tipping horses to win, not to deserve to win. I don't get points for style Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Re: Value tips It's like beating your head against a brick wall. :wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall 4/11 can be value, just as much as a 11/4, 5/1, 10/1, 16/1 or 33/1 shot can be value. Betting in level stakes, a punter makes a profit on his bets @ 4/11 if he wins more than 73.33% of them. Whether this 4/11 shot Asturienne won by a head or 20 lengths or lost by a head or 20 lengths, does not matter either way. It could be one of the 73.33% (or whatever) who win or the 26.67% (or whatever) that lose. So this one result proves nothing. If Wizz or Sig believed the horse had a better than 77% chance of winning (74% + a plausible margin for error), then it was VALUE (according to the only person that matters, the punter himself) and was right to back it / make it his tip. If however, Wizz or Sig or whoever backed the horse because he thought the horse would win (ie better than 50% chance) he was wrong to back it. Anything below a 73.33% strike rate @ 4/11 would show a loss (at level stakes) therefore, just thinking it should win (better than 50% chance) is not good enough. Equally, if a punter makes an 11/4 shot his bet of the day; it is only a good VALUE bet if he believes it has a better than 28% chance (26.67 + a plausible margin for error). All this talk about odds-on not being VALUE is nonsense. :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Re: Value tips Have you took your medication Ginge, relax dude. :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Re: Value tips :lol Just frustated when no matter how many times I try to explain, people don't understand basic maths.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Re: Value tips 4/11 can be value, just as much as a 11/4, 5/1, 10/1, 16/1 or 33/1 shot can be value. :ok:ok Data based on sp returns going back to 1998. Flat Racing. If you had blindly backed at level stakes all horses were the bookmakers returned an SP of 2/5 (71.43% or better chance of winning) or shorter from Jan 1998 to date, then 73.32% of those bets would have won. Giving a winning edge of nearly 2%. No. of Flat runner with SP returns of 2/5 or shorter - 1998 to date Runners - 1552 Winners - 1138 SR - 73.32% Jump Racing If you had blindly backed at level stakes all horses were the bookmakers returned an SP of 2/5 (71.43% or better chance of winning) or shorter from Jan 1998 to date, then 76.59% of those bets would have won. Giving a winning edge of over 5%. No. Jumps runners with SP returns of 2/5 or shorter - 1998 to date Runners - 1931 Winners - 1479 SR% - 76.59% It should also be noted that this data doesn't include any rule 4 deductions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyjkmak Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Re: Value tips It's like beating your head against a brick wall. :wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall 4/11 can be value, just as much as a 11/4, 5/1, 10/1, 16/1 or 33/1 shot can be value. Betting in level stakes, a punter makes a profit on his bets @ 4/11 if he wins more than 73.33% of them. Whether this 4/11 shot Asturienne won by a head or 20 lengths or lost by a head or 20 lengths, does not matter either way. It could be one of the 73.33% (or whatever) who win or the 26.67% (or whatever) that lose. So this one result proves nothing. If Wizz or Sig believed the horse had a better than 77% chance of winning (74% + a plausible margin for error), then it was VALUE (according to the only person that matters, the punter himself) and was right to back it / make it his tip. If however, Wizz or Sig or whoever backed the horse because he thought the horse would win (ie better than 50% chance) he was wrong to back it. Anything below a 73.33% strike rate @ 4/11 would show a loss (at level stakes) therefore, just thinking it should win (better than 50% chance) is not good enough. Equally, if a punter makes an 11/4 shot his bet of the day; it is only a good VALUE bet if he believes it has a better than 28% chance (26.67 + a plausible margin for error). All this talk about odds-on not being VALUE is nonsense. :wall The point I am trying to make here is what you have highlighted, to tip a horse simply because you think it will win is bad practice, I agree totally with what you say about odds and value, thats the point I have been trying to make all along and I really believe that this is what drives certain people to make their tips. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Re: Value tips The point I am trying to make here is what you have highlighted' date='[b'] to tip a horse simply because you think it will win is bad practice, I agree totally with what you say about odds and value, thats the point I have been trying to make all along and I really believe that this is what drives certain people to make their tips. For sure, members might make something their best bet because they think it will win. But it is the same with ANY price, whether it is 4/11 or 11/4, or 11/1 or 40/1. There could be just as many people (probably more, as many stay clear of odds-on just because they are odds-on) making an 11/4 shot the "bet of the day", just because it has the best chance of winning any race on Channel 4 that day. Or making Walkon or Soldatino their best bet, just because it might have the best chance of winning the Totesport Trophy (big race of the day). They are all equally wrong, and all have equally as much logic to make it their best bet of the day. I don't see how odds-on backers can be singled out in this way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyjkmak Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Re: Value tips :wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall Time for me to hit my head off the wall. The reason I single out odds on shot( long odds on shots I might add) is that I believe it is too easy and lacks imagination and often doesn't have any value whatsoever....am I alone here??????????:@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Re: Value tips :wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall Time for me to hit my head off the wall. The reason I single out odds on shot( long odds on shots I might add) is that I believe it is too easy and lacks imagination and often doesn't have any value whatsoever....am I alone here??????????:@ Calm down Andy. Exactly like those making the 11/4 shot with the bast chance of winning a Channel 4 race, or the favourite winning the big race of the day could be said to - "lacks imagination and often doesn't have any value whatsoever". :ok There are probably more people doing those two things in the "Best Bet Of The Day" than picking odds-on favs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Re: Value tips :wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall Time for me to hit my head off the wall. The reason I single out odds on shot( long odds on shots I might add) is that I believe it is too easy and lacks imagination and often doesn't have any value whatsoever....am I alone here??????????:@ If it was easy to make a long term profit backing odds on shots then everyone would do it. The fact is that a few people make it pay. People under-estimate how hard it is to be an odds-on backer. You basically get villified for making your selection. I would never question any other person's nap or their criteria for doing so. Yet I feel like I've spent an entire thread having to justify mine. You've had the name of the comp changed as a direct result of this thread. I think you've probably achieved enough. You don't like my tactics, I couldn't care less about yours. We'll continue in our own separate ways and I'm sure you will end up with the most profit in the long term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyjkmak Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Re: Value tips Ok lets just agree to differ, like I said, it was never intened to turn into a bun fight but I suppose when people are passionate about their position then sparks can fly. I love a fiery debate and will only say this...no hard feelings, good luck with your naps....:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Re: Value tips Ok lets just agree to differ' date=' like I said, it was never intened to turn into a bun fight but I suppose when people are passionate about their position then sparks can fly. I love a fiery debate and will only say this...no hard feelings, good luck with your naps....:ok[/quote'] This was always going to be a fiery thread if you ask me, although the opening post said you didnt mean to single anyone out intentionally it was kind of obvious who you were aiming the thread at considering only two punters back long odds on horses as part of the competition. The timing of the thread also looked suspicious, the day after Wizzkid dumped you out the knockout comp this thread sprung up, so maybe the motivation for the thread was damaged pride? I respect your opinions Andy and your BBOTD/BOTD stats are very impressive so well done for that, but IMHO there wasn't any need for starting this thread and getting people to justify their methods - each to their own. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Re: Value tips IMHO there wasn't any need for starting this thread and getting people to justify their methods - each to their own. This. I was just waiting for someone else to say it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Re: Value tips C'mon guys, doesnt matter does it in the scheme of things. Like i said earlier, seems like years ago now, the comp is just like the betting shop, we have got allsorts and to me that makes it what it is. I look forward every night to checking the results and i dont just see if they won, i see where they finished and at what price, i do sometimes think "why the hell did he pick that" Its not for me to reason why, all i know is guys do think about what to put in the Best bet thread and have their reasons for it, thats good enough for me. The value argument will never be won, me and Ginge are living proof of that, hopefully we still respect each others views and accept we are just different. I quite like the fact that 52 people have bothered to enter the comp this month and no-one is exactly the same, I have living proof of that too. I just hope that this thread wont be bumped up everytime an odds on shot is beaten, it proves nothing and I think everyone has had a say now anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Re: Value tips I'll start posting bets in the Bes... Bet Of The Day Comp again - then you will see what value is!! Whatever I tip, get it laid, eeeeeasy money. Not much better value than that :ok :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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