Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle 50% of the market is now 2/1 Cue Card. Hurry Up Tuesday 13:30 :zzz A few words from Mr Tizzard. Tizzard admitted to being shocked when the five-year-old lost his unbeaten record to Menorah. "I thought that he had a hard race last time and while I half considered running him in January, most of mine were running badly then," said Tizzard. "He's a good horse first time out and I had Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown on my my mind so it was an easy decision in the end. "I was shocked when he got beat because he had been so good in his four earlier races but the winner must have been exceptional to beat him, although our fellow didn't gallop for 10 days because of the frost and just cantered away. "Menorah might beat us again and he is a nice horse but ours is a bloody good horse and I hope to take him on again one day." The five-year-old has been off the track since December by design, and Tizzard would like to give him a day out before the first day of the Festival. "I'm hoping to take him to Newbury for a racecourse gallop on Friday," said the Dorset handler. "He's absolutely fine, but I'd just like to give him a gallop to put my mind at ease before Cheltenham." Cue Card is around 9-4 favourite for the opening race of the meeting on March 15 but Paddy Power are looking to take him on and the bookmakers will refund all losing bets in the race placed from 10am on February 27 if Cue Card comes home in front.

[King's Theatre]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle Not concerned about the lay-off for Cue Card. In the scheme of things he's had a very assured and smooth campaign. I think he'll be suited by a strongly run race as a horse who will need at least 2 and a half miles in time. The field ignored Nicene Creed in the International and the pace in the Sharp Novices' Hurdle wasn't blistering. A stronger pace will help his jumping also. Understandable Colin Tizzard has looked after him, but just one more hurdles run would have made for a better prep and would have taken nothing out of him really. Expect him to be tanking into the home turn, but if Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre and maybe others are too - which I think is more likely than not - I think Cue Card will get done for a turn of foot and he found little last time. Very strong chance but not unbeatable.

[Tull]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle Interesting stat I saw today was that only 1 winner in the last 12 has contested a race at the festival.

[MajorWager]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle For reasons I have expressed earlier in the thread I fancy Gibb River for this. Never seen the wrong side of 3:55 for this distance on G/S when winning all 3 starts. This to me indicated a high cruising speed. Same tactic each race, tracks leaders and pushes on 3 or 4 out to go clear, wins easy. Incidently, the 2nd in his latest run called Sunley something won yesterday in a fast time. Against this theory is the fact that he appears 3rd in the Henderson pecking order for this race, and Barry G looks to have picked Spirit, and McCoy on Sprinter. Don't know who will ride Gibb River yet, but this race is now shouting at me to do a Henderson 1-2-3 combi forecast and tri-cast. Problem is, I can't imagine Cue card not in the first 3 at all.

[robbiefpb]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle I think I've talked myself out of backing Cue Card now. I still have scar's from backing Dunguib last year when PP ran the offer of refunding all losing bets if it won. I know CC is clearly the best horse in the race but PP haven't haven't put themselves at such a massive liability without having good reason it will get turned over and at the current price, I just can't get involved. I've taken the 11/2 on Spirit Son with PP so at least i'll get my stake back if Cue Card dots up.

[robbiefpb]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle Also, below is a peice I've copied from Nick Mordin. For those also looking to find a horse to oppose Cue Card, looks a good idea to swerve Sprinter Sacre; But I'd be very surprised if he even managed to place in the big race at Cheltenham.The main reason I doubt Sprinter Sacre's Cheltenham chance is because he ran like a really green horse at Ascot. He pulled hard and raced with his tail held high all the way until the fourth last when his jockey finally let him stride on into the lead. And even then his ears were still going all over the place. These are all mannerisms of a horse that needs a lot more seasoning before being ready to take on top class competition. His last race time, adjusted for the shorter distance Sprinter Sacre ran this suggests he put up no better than a Listed class performance.Besides his need for more experience it looks pretty clear Sprinter Sacre wants fences and a longer trip before showing his best form. He's built for going two and a half miles plus over fences and his two winning siblings both took cross country chases in France over 2m 4f to 2m 6.5f. Trainer Nicky Henderson says he would like to stop with Sprinter Sacre for this season and bring him back over fences next term. His owners however are apparently keen on going to Cheltenham. My advice to them is listen to your trainer.

[Rondetto]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle

Dunguib a better jumper than Cue Card ???? I think you should look back at Dunguibs jumping last year - I was all for Dunguib last year I was riding the Tide with everyone else and It was pointed out to me that his jumping was his weak area - This proved right on the day watch the race from last year and you can see Dunguib loose ground with his jumping. He gained ground when on the flat and up the hill. He may have jumped better in his last race this year but it was definetly his weakness last year. Cue Card's jumping was great his last 2 runs his jumping was pointed out to me again and I looked at the videos and he is fast and efficient - that is what you want in these types of races. Menorah beat him in a good race - Menorah is more experienced a year older. I honestly think Cue Card stands a better chance than Dunguib in this Supreme and the Irish contingency are not the talking horses this year. Henderson's horses are the threat but to many question marks about most of the field this year.

You obviously misread my post I said a better Bumper horse and a more experienced hurdler which he was prior to the Suprmeme. Dunguib had won all his hurdle races prior to Cheltenham I believe it was 4 or 5 and the opposition he faced was a fair bit better than anything Cue Card faced prior to getting a whooping from Menorah. The great thing about these Cheltenham trial is they are like all other races, something has to finish second. It does not make them the automatic winner of the Supreme. All I read is he finished 2nd to Menorohah so he must good and lets ignore the facts. To date Cue card has done nothing to suggest he is even capabale of winning a top class hurdle race what he has done is shown his inability to quicken when put under prersssure. BTW Dunguib proved in the Supreme he's the real deal despite an awful ride he was a strong finishing 3rd. Strong finisher is something Cue Card proved he is not.

[Leedsmycrispsalone]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle Alright Jim i cant wait until this race is over.If i read any more articals on cue card i will explode i cant stop thinking about the race and how it will plan out. Banker or Flop i cant wait i havent slept properly for weeks. Good family day out and cue card to come back safe will do. But my fingers are firmly crossed.:hope:clap

[Monterosso]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle Here's my pointless ramblings. :loon (Supreme Novices' Hurdle - Tuesday) 1:30 Cheltenham - Dunraven Storm - 2pts e/w @ 28/1 (Bet365 - NRNB) I really think this Phillip Hobbs trained 6 year old has a very good chance of getting involved here and is crazily over-priced at 28/1 considering his overall form. Whilst he hasn't been seen for a while and left on a sour note, he has enough form in the book to put it up to the market principles here, bar the hot-favourite Cue Card, who disposed of my selection fairly readily in a Grade 2 contest at Cheltenham back in November. However, despite being 8 lengths behind many peoples festival banker, Dunraven Storm paid for some sloppy jumping at the 2nd last flight that day and could of forced Colin Tizzard's runner to have a much more difficult run-in if he didn't lose valuable momentum when hammering the hurdle. Phillip Hobbs' charge did stay on very well though and seemed to get up the hill nicely, despite already being a beaten horse, so some encouragement can be taken out of that. He finished 10 lengths clear of a horse who was rated 2lbs superior, in the shape of Ballyadam Brook, who was rated 140 and came into the race in brilliant form before running to his mark yet again, but found those two much too good. On the face of things, that form alone makes my selections price look significantly too big here, and I feel he's no more than a 14/1 shot, with the only worry being his wellbeing, as he hasn't run since the 20th of November, mainly down to his preference for decent ground but also because of his flop last time out when sent off as a 1/2 favourite in a Listed contest. Dunraven Storm paid for having 3 races in as many weeks when tackling a 4 runner field at Haydock. He raced keenly throughout on the back of a slowly run race, took over 3 out, but weakened quickly and finished a very disappointing last place. After the race, Phillip Hobbs said "He lost his race at the start," before going on to say that "he boiled over beforehand and then pulled too hard in the race. He ran miles below his true form and we'll give him a break now." He definitely didn't give his true running, and I think he can be forgiven that run. The sharp nature of the Haydock track probably wasn't ideal either, and with his preference being for a galloping track, he should be right at home now that he's back running at Cheltenham, the place where he produced his career best performance. The ground is likely to be similar to the day he faced Cue Card, and it should prove no obstacle at all. His jumping is generally quite fluent, and whilst he's prone to the odd mistake, I think the likely fast pace will see him in a much better light, as he has traveled very well in the majority of his races, but is likely to be even better when he doesn't have to cut out his own running, as he was forced to do a few times. Another good piece of form was his 4 length win over the recently impressive Recession Proof, who couldn't live with the relentless galloping of Phillip Hobbs' charge when they faced off back in October. Despite making a bad mistake at the second last Ascot hurdle, Dunraven Storm repelled the recent Totesport Trophy winner to win going away, showing a very game attitude in the process. However, that was only their second starts, and the runner up has obviously progressed significantly (as his 8/1 price-tag here suggests) but I think my selection can hold that form again, with everything likely to be set up to see him in a better light here. John Quinn's then 4 year old probably wasn't fully suited by the steady pace, but the way he was forced to come off the bridle a fair way from home was testament to the abilities of Dunraven Storm, who is very underrated in the market here. Whilst Dunraven Storm doesn't fit into too many of the recent trends for this race, he has produced a couple of efforts that would see him being towards the head of the market and not near the bottom, where he currently resides. The likes of Sprinter Sacre, who has proved nothing yet and hasn't got the same level of form as my selection, is deemed to be a best priced 10/1 shot and 7/1 in places. He has run recently though and comes from a powerful stable so there's likely to be more to come, but I get the feeling that Phillip Hobbs' refusal to run his charge on softer going has led to him being seriously overlooked here, which isn't a bad thing as he's a very attractive price at the moment. He has won first time up and after a long break before, although in much weaker contests, but I'm not overly worried by the break as he's reported to be schooling well and should come here flying fit, although he was said to have banged a joint a couple of weeks ago which took him back a bit, but hopefully not too much. There has been a bit of money for him in the past fortnight and it looks likely that he'll be lining out here, but if he doesn't, the bet is "non-runner no bet" with most firms. The yard took this race with Menorah last year and he was similarly lightly raced, also running off the same official rating that day as his stablemate will run off on Tuesday, which matters not but it shows how highly rated Dunraven Storm is by the handicapper, yet he's not priced accordingly. He's open to a lot more improvement, unexposed, a good jumper, a strong traveler, suited to conditions and likely to make his presence felt if running to his abilities here. Cue Card is rated as the best animal here, but there was lots not to like in his latest outing (in December, has a break to overcome too), where he had an awkward head carriage and found next to nothing for pressure, despite traveling and jumping like the best horse before they turned for home. He's obviously a highly talented horse and the most likely winner, but there's enough reason to oppose him at the price (2/1 currently) and he could flatter to deceive once more if they manage to get him off the bridle. Marsh Warbler is another I rate really highly and he's overpriced here at 33/1, as it's possible he could line up against the older animals for the first time, with fears that he won't get suitable ground on Friday for the Triumph Hurdle, in which he'd hold quite decent claims. His Grade 1 victory is still rated 7lbs inferior to the efforts of Dunraven Storm when he chased home the favourite for this race back in November and even if Brian Ellison's charge turned up here, he'd have a hell of a battle on his hands on ground that may possibly force him to perform below his best. He is an interesting one if he turns up for this though, and is pretty much sure to be shorter than 33/1 if doing so, but I'd say his big day has come and gone. Spirit Son is another one blessed with talent and comes here on the back of a visually impressive 21 length win in a Listed contest at Exeter. He's from the Nicky Henderson yard and that obviously has an effect on his price, which is generally 6/1. However, his runs have come on truly soft ground and heavy ground, so it's debatable if he can run to his level of form on ground that will be quicker than that. So despite being a horse with plenty of ability and potentially a lot more to give, I'd rather avoid at the current prices, even though it's quite possible that the ground will prove no obstacle to him and connections seem to think he'll be equally effective on better ground, if not even better than what he has shown. The price is still too short regardless of what they say and the animal who finished 21 lengths behind him in that Listed contest is likely to make a much better chaser next season, so it was probably no more than academic once they faced off, as the Henderson runners 4/9 price tag suggested. There are many more dangers, too many to list but I think that Dunraven Storm has both the potential to improve and form in the book to suggest that he shouldn't be 28/1 here. His wellbeing has to be taken on trust but he done little wrong in 2010 (bar his last start, where he has excuses) and looks to have enough ability to get competitive in this contest. Whilst over-turning the Cue Card form will more than likely prove very difficult, he may have a more than decent chance of grabbing either 2nd or 3rd place. He'll have the more than capable Richard Johnson on his back and he landed this race last year, plus has experience of riding this fellow to victory on 4 occasions. If he can get his mount settled in behind the likely decent pace, I think he'll have an excellent chance of getting involved at the business end of proceedings, assuming he has a clear, mistake-free round. Medium sized each-way stakes for me, and I think he provides a lively each-way alternative to the favourite, who I couldn't back at current prices. Fingers crossed that Phillip Hobbs will overturn the hot-favourite in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle for the second time in as many years.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle

Alright Jim i cant wait until this race is over.If i read any more articals on cue card i will explode i cant stop thinking about the race and how it will plan out. Banker or Flop i cant wait i havent slept properly for weeks. Good family day out and cue card to come back safe will do. But my fingers are firmly crossed.:hope:clap

Hope yous have a cracker of a day and YES we need him home back safe. The very best of luck :hope

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle From Sportinglife.com GERAGHTY SIDES WITH SON IN SUPREME http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/11/03/12/RACING_Supreme.html&BID=465

[kashiwazaki]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle There is an outstanding betting opportunity in this race: SPIRIT SON to be PLACED currently trading 2.2+ on Betfair. This horse is the main danger to Cue Card and will be extremely hard to keep out of the frame indeed. Certainly at odds against to be placed he is much better value than Cue Card is to win outright. I suggest that whatever stakes you back in the win market you should cover them by backing Spirit Son to be placed :ok

[cpo]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle Al Ferof each way for me at 14's to get the festival off to a flyer.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle Its going to be a great race, just a pitty its the first race, just like a few on the site i have Anti post from 2010, from 10's right down too 7/2, would i bet him at 2/1 ? Mmmm not sure. Thought it was a bit of a cue i mean Clue yesterday on the morning line when Mr David pipe was asked if he could train any horse from the festival he said Cue Card, i think most trainers are taken with him. Tough race i also fear Al Ferof and will have a wee insurance policy on him. The Roar, the pace, the ground, the class, could all play right up Cue Card's street, am pretty sure of one thing, he won't be far away if he gets beat, and am pretty sure in the race all eyes will be on him. It would be a great start, well for me & Ginge.

[Tull]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle Rathlin could be adecent e/w shout. Comes out well on the stats and seems to have a decent finish. A quick check on the sire also proved a positive, untried on quicker ground but shouldnt be a problem.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle Cue Card is now mostly 2/1, they don't seem very keen in laying him, even Paddy Power go 2's :hope A pretty good read. http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/racing/excitement-mounts-for-the-tizzards-as-cue-card-aims-to-reign-supreme-2241040.html

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle From Sportinglife.com TIZZARD EAGER TO PLAY HIS TRUMP CARD http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/11/03/14/RACING_Supreme.html&BID=465

[mileni4uk]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle Spirit Son 1pt EW - 6/1 I decided I will be taking on Cue Card. No run for 3 months is a worry. Also don't trust Tizzard with a hurdler and Joe Tizzard is not one I want to carry my money on a 2/1 shot in hustle and bustle Supreme. Spirit Son has looked absolutely electric this season and I think will be thereabouts. Even if beaten by the fav, should be in the places. Al Ferof will probably come good over fences and may need a bit further. Not sure about Zaidpour. He was going to be stayer, but due to So Young is forced to come here. From the Henderson hores Barry had the choice.

[TheRat]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle CC 3/1 with Hills and Laddies for limited time

[jockmc]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle yea just seen that my 23/10 looks small :wall:wall:wall thought sure he wud start 7/4 r less

[Goldikova]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle If So Young was as fast as they say he is, then that might indicate that they still don't fancy their chances against Cue Card in this race, as surely he'd make a better 2 miler than Zaidpour. Mullins said Zaidpour was possibly his best bet of the festival, which to me is dishonest and misleading. The reason is that he is now saying Zaidpour might not like the ground. There are quite a few in here that i just can't see winning tomorrow. By process of elimination Cue Card would have top claims. Even Barry Geraghty has said Cue Card would be his pick. I've only had a 1pt speculative bet on an outsider. The only problems i can see being caused for Cue Card are by Hidden Universe who might go early than he'd like, which could set it up for Cue Card and Spirit son to fight it out. Spirit son is a horse i suspect could be good, but i believe Cedre Bleu wasn't up to anything when being defeated by him, or is simply over estimated. He really could still be anything. So so cut it short, Cue Cards main problem may be Spirit Son, with a few fighting it out for a place.

[kashiwazaki]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle for a purely profit making point of view the win market is dead. The only play I see there is a lay of Cue Card purely on price. Trying to work out who is going to win is extremely difficult. Value lies in the place market. Many are simply not fast enough and can be dismissed. Personally, I cant see Spirit Son out of the frame and at odds against he represents huge value in my eyes.

[Goldikova]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle Boyles are refunding stakes if a selection finishes 2nd in this race. I thought i'd put my money where my mouth is and backed Spirit Son at 5/1. The reasons are stated above. There are just so many horses you could put a pen through without thinking.

[SpiritOf67]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle PP refunding all losing bets up to £200 if cue card wins. So taking my namesake Spirit Son & Recession Proof e/w

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle

The more I think about this race the more I can't see past Cue Card In case you didn't know Paddy Power are refunding losing stakes if Cue Card wins, like they did on Dunguib last year so if you want to oppose him then bet with PP! EDIT - missed the post above myself :) Sorry!!

So whats it to be Rat ? is your cash down or have you jumped ship ?

[TheRat]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle Cash has been down for a while at 10s and went in again last week at around 5/2. Still confident but CC is no banker imo. 3/1 is a good price though. A lot of support for other horses which is understandable when he is 9/4 and not ran this year. The are lots of trends out against him, but with all trends you can say, "no horse has done X since so and so in 1991". Maybe CC is special enough to be an exception. One thing is for sure it will take an excellent horse to beat him if he is ready

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle

Cash has been down for a while at 10s and went in again last week at around 5/2. Still confident but CC is no banker imo. 3/1 is a good price though. A lot of support for other horses which is understandable when he is 9/4 and not ran this year. The are lots of trends out against him, but with all trends you can say, "no horse has done X since so and so in 1991". Maybe CC is special enough to be an exception. One thing is for sure it will take an excellent horse to beat him if he is ready

Trends don't mean shit mate, horses don't even know they exist. Workforce won the Derby then flopped in the King George, when they all passed him over he won the Arc, did Mr Stoute have a trend of winning the Arc ? Nope. Cue Card will give a very good account, every jockey bar Joe would swap what they have for a ride on him. Best of luck fella.

[bowles10]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle

Trends don't mean shit mate, horses don't even know they exist. Workforce won the Derby then flopped in the King George, when they all passed him over he won the Arc, did Mr Stoute have a trend of winning the Arc ? Nope. Cue Card will give a very good account, every jockey bar Joe would swap what they have for a ride on him. Best of luck fella.

:lol funny

[StuSimmy]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle 13:30 Cheltenham Recession Proof looks to be John Quinn's best chance of a winner this week consider he has only one other horse at the meeting and I quite fancy his chances in this race, place claims at the very least. Although he is entered into a race later in the week, it is likely this is the main aim and he will not run again later in the week. Since making the switch over from flat racing this horse has won 4 times from 5 races and a second place in his only other race. Made a winning debut over hurdles in October at Carlisle in a novice event before going on to finish 2nd at Ascot when stepped up in class, again in novice company. He was beaten 4 lengths by Dunraven Storm that day off the same terms but I believe he has progressed well since and can now reverse that form, especially in ground softer than good which Recession Proof has won on twice before. Since that race, my selection has then went on to win in the mud at Lingfield in another novice hurdle race before going on to win a national hunt flat race on the all weather at Southwell due to the bad weather conditions. He won that race in pretty good fashion by making every yard. Was next seen for his first appearance in 2011 on the 18th of February which seemed like a good prep run for today when he won his first race stepped up into graded company when he won the Grade 3 ToteSport Trophy at Newbury. He stayed on very well under pressure that day to hang on by a short head. He is clearly still on the upgrade and I feel he is in with a great chance today. Has yet to run at Cheltenham but has previously won over this distance so the trip is not a concern. 1pt E/W Recession Proof @ 9/1 (>Bet365 - 1/4 odds 1,2,3)

[Lars]

Re: Tues 1.30 : Supreme Novices' Hurdle To note, I dislike NH racing (being from York, after all) and there won't be much methodology in these picks. Hardly staking owt, either. Will be watching with interest, mind you. 13:30 Cheltenham Kicking myself that I didn't have an ante-post bet on Cue Card and even though he's a bit short now at 5/2, I'm still of the opinion he's around a 2/1 shot or perhaps even 15/8 with a field that I don't really rate too highly. Won 4/5 starts, including here at Cheltenham twice, impressively last year in the Bumper and then again in a Grade 2 Novices, thrashing Dunraven Storm by 8 lengths. His next run, when finishing 2nd to Menorah was a creditable effort and is likely the best piece of form coming into this race, considering that Menorah is expected to do the business in the Champion Hurdle. He's been off since then, but he surely will be dead right for this. My only concern is that he might need further, being bred to do so and he might get found out. However, as I said before I don't really rate his field, and in my view, it'll take a below par Cue Card for something else to win this one. He's hardly banker material at 5/2, and might be worth backing again if drifting in the morning (plausible), but even though it should be worth searching for EW value elsewhere, I can't get away from him. Cue Card; 1pt Win @ 5/2 Paddy Power