ganjaman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Yesterday proved nothing in my eyes. Looking at Binocular's record in races with less than 8 horses you can see that he clearly needs a slightly bigger field to show his best form. He's raced 8 times in a field with less than 8 horses (in britain) and won 5 times, though never by more than 5 lengths. 3 of those wins have had him starting at 1/7, 1/9 and 1/10 favourite and on each occasion he has won in less than impressive fashion. So yesterday could have been a masterstroke by McManus to improve Bino's price for Cheltenham. HOWEVER, when i looked at this stat there was also something else that came to my attention that could well make my mind up once the field and more importantly the size of the field is announced. Bino has never won in a field of more than 20 horses. Admittedly this could be a terrible stat to point out because he has only ever had this twice and also he has only ever faced more than 20 horses at Cheltenham. (on both occasions the finish turned into a battle up the hill). Even with the one man on board you would want in an all out finish Binocular has come up short in that scenario. There are lots of reasons why this may happen but i think it could be down to the fact that when you have a large field there are more horses taking eachother on for the lead early on. When Punjabi won the CH in 2009 you had Osana, Hardy Eustace and Celestial Halo all taking eachother on making the gallop absolutely frenetic. There was no chance of Binocular being held up at the back and switched off because McCoy knew he had to stay prominent throughout. This meant when push came to shove he wasn't going to get the absolute clear passage he wanted and that he wouldn't have as much left in the tank as he would like. He was being stalked by Punjabi but had to chase Celestial Halo and in the end they both had more in the finish. Now the race last year was perfect because only one horse wanted to make it from the outset (Celestial Halo) and they went no gallop at all early on. Bino was switched off perfectly, he stalked the leaders travelling beautifully throughout then when the front 4 made there move they were battling for the finish well before the final 2 furlongs which was perfect for the easy travelling Binocular. He then took the micky and demolished them with ease. If there is a similar amount of horses in the race (10 to 15) i would expect Binocular to do the same and win this years CH. If there are more than 15 i would probably be a layer. I think Binocular needs the race to be set up for him in a medium size field with a less than frenetic early pace. I think in a bigger field you would have to favour a horse that is likely to get further. So Peddlers Cross and Oscar Whisky both stand out. Menorah is another who i would really favour in a bigger field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganjaman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy CHAMPION HURDLE TRENDS 2011 The highlight of the first day of Cheltenham’s 4 day Festival is the Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy, the big one for 2 mile hurdlers. Between 1998 and 2007 the Irish won 8 of the 10 runnings of the race but in the last 3 years emphasis has swung back over the Irish Sea with Katchit, Punjabi and Binocular winning it for the home team. Below we look at the trends for past 10 runnings (2000 to 2010): Age (Win-Place-Runners) 5yo: 1-8-30 6yo: 2-3-39 7yo: 3-5-31 8yo: 3-1-23 9yo: 1-2-11 10yo: 0-1-6 11yo+: 0-0-10 It’s hard to know what to make of the age stats. In the last three years 5 and 6 year olds have won all 3 and filled 8 of 9 places however their record over the last 10 renewals (3-11-69) does not read so well when compared to horses aged 7 to 9 (7-8-65). Horses aged 10+ have record of 0-1-16, the only winner aged 10+ in the last 50 years was the great Sea Pigeon in 1980/81. Gender Of the six mares (0-1-6) to run in the past 10 renewals only Bilbao was placed. She finished 3rd in 2002 when the first 2 in the betting went wrong during the race (Istabraq pulled up and Valiramix slipped up). It’s safe to say she would not have made the places had Valiramix completed. Recent/Past Form 8 of 10 winners won last time out (exceptions finished 2nd and 3rd) 10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days 9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times that season 9 of 10 winners had run at least 10 times over hurdles 10 of 10 winners were second, third or fourth season hurdlers 8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle (Rooster Booster had won a grade 2 and Sublimity had finished 4th in the previous season's Supreme Novices) Big Field Form When looking at the form of the past 10 winners, it is noticeable that their recent form in bigger fields was superior to that of form in smaller fields when running in hurdles races over 2M to 2M 1F. Last 10 winners’ combined last 4 runs in: 2M-2M1F hurdles with 10 or more runners: 25-9-37 2M-2M1F hurdles with 9 or fewer runners: 17-9-38 The last 10 winners had finished in the first 4 on all of their last 4 starts in 2M-2M 1F hurdles with 10 or more runners (Sublimity and Hors La Loi had not yet run 4 times in fields of 10+ over 2M to 2M 1F) Last year’s race Binocular won last year’s Champion Hurdle in fine style though the form of those behind him that day has not worked that well. Khyber Kim won the Aintree Hurdle next time out and Solwhit won the Morgiana this season, but along with Binocular himself they are the only subsequent grade 1 winners to come out of it from the 12-strong field. The combined subsequent hurdles form of all 12 runners reads 4-8-27. The form next time out of the 11 horses, to come out of the race and run under NH rules since, reads 4F02422F313. Cheltenham Festival Form Defending Champion Hurdler (Binocular): 1PR2132469 (2-3-10) Triumph Hurdle winner (Soldatino): 70F6123 (1-2-7) Neptune Investments Novices' winner (Peddlers Cross): 1 (1-0-1) County Hurdle winner (Thousand Stars): 1 (1-0-1) Supreme Novices winner (Menorah): 203500 (0-2-6) 6 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Champion Hurdle, finishing 121333 7 of 10 winners had won a race at the Cheltenham Festival (3 exceptions had finished in first 4 in Champion or Supreme) 10 of 10 winners finished in first 4 over hurdles at previous Cheltenham Festival Other races Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 11116 (4-0-5) Kingwell Hurdle winner: 21386P10 (2-2-8) Contenders Hurdle winner (Binocular): 31006721 (2-2-8) December Festival Hurdle (Hurricane Fly): 1P751206 (2-1-8) Irish Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 104514006 (2-0-9) International Hurdle winner (Menorah): S1896232 (1-3-8) Morgiana Hurdle winner (Solwhit): 21F96 (1-1-5) Greatwood Hurdle winner (Menorah): 0184602 (1-1-7) Fighting Fifth Hurdle winner (Peddlers Cross): 65525P010 (1-1-8) Aintree Hurdle winner (Khyber Kim): 1476 (1-0-4) Christmas Hurdle winner (Binocular): 65532500 (0-2-8) 4 of 10 winners ran in December Festival Hurdle, finishing 1731 4 of 10 winners ran in Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 1111 3 of 10 winners (last 3) ran in the Fighting Fifth, finishing 315 3 of 10 winners ran in the Christmas hurdle, finishing 3F3 3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Aintree Hurdle, finishing 14F 3 of 10 winners ran in the International Hurdle, finishing 312 3 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing 131 3 of 10 winners ran in the Kingwell Hurdle last time out, finishing 113 Trainers Irish trained runners (5-5-57) have won 5 of the last 10 runnings though they have failed to manage a place in the past 3 seasons. Nicky Henderson (2-5-16) has trained the winner for the past 2 years and also amazing the 3rd place in the each of the last 4 renewals. Philip Hobbs (1-1-6) and Alan King (1-0-4) are the only other two trainers with entrant this year who have saddled the winner since 2000. Many of big stables from both sides of the Irish Sea have failed to make much of an impact in this race recenty. The Pipe stable (0-2-10), Paul Nicholls (0-1-4), Noel Meade (0-1-9) and Willie Mullins (0-0-6) have gained no wins and 4 places from a combined 29 runners in the last 10 renewals. Price 6 of the last 9 winners (including the last 4) went off at 9/1 or bigger Recently the trend has been towards longer priced winners. Favourites (3-3-11) have taken just 3 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 3.47. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: · Aged 6 to 8 · Won last time out in the past 50 days · Run at least 10 times over hurdles · A second, third or fourth season hurdler · Finished in first 4 on last 4 runs in 2M-2M 1F hurdles races · Won a grade 1 hurdle · Finished in first 3 in 2010 Champion Hurdle or won another race at 2010 Festival · Won the Punchestown Champion Hurdle · First 3 in the Kingwell or Contenders Hurdle last time · Trained by Nicky Henderson or in Ireland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trace Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy :moonhurricane fly can anything cruise at the same speed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billvernon Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Binocular was the best pace in the champion hurdle for a few years he ran a blinder on his favoured ground - Do not ignore the fact that Henderson is banging in the winners - I see Binocular doing the same if getting favoured ground. Hurricane has yet to show that he like Cheltenham in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fredward Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Khyber Kim is confirmed for the CH. Dunbguib also ruled out of the Coral Cup owners weren't keen on it. This is going to be the race of the festival :nana And most probably a nightmare for punters :lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torn up slip Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Khyber Kim is confirmed for the CH. Dunbguib also ruled out of the Coral Cup owners weren't keen on it. This is going to be the race of the festival :nana And most probably a nightmare for punters :lol Going to be one of THE great festival races of all time I reckon. it is going to be a nightmare for punters but that's what makes it so exciting imo. Im massively keen on HF, I think Menorah has an excellent chance of chasing him home, but I think the fact Peddlers Cross failed to run the other day gives hi too much to do, and I just dont rate Binocular. I've picked a fantastic year for my first Cheltenham experience. Going on the Tuesday and the Wednesday but have booked the week off work for it and will watch the other 2 days in the ale house. Been saving up for weeks now and all being well i'll be getting a new car out of it. Either that or selling my current one to webuyanycar.com :rollin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy I've picked a fantastic year for my first Cheltenham experience. Going on the Tuesday and the Wednesday but have booked the week off work for it and will watch the other 2 days in the ale house. Been saving up for weeks now and all being well i'll be getting a new car out of it. Either that or selling my current one to webuyanycar.com :rollin enjoy, but for me the best place is in front of the tv watching every race, the build up, having all the form at your finger tips and no crowds to get a bet on, having a beer when you want....... i tried to watch gold cup day in the pub last year and it was terrible, i couldnt get into it at all, missed all the talk on the tv and didnt even have a decent beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torn up slip Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy enjoy, but for me the best place is in front of the tv watching every race, the build up, having all the form at your finger tips and no crowds to get a bet on, having a beer when you want....... i tried to watch gold cup day in the pub last year and it was terrible, i couldnt get into it at all, missed all the talk on the tv and didnt even have a decent beer Depends which boozer ya go in I guess. I'll be with my best mate and the pub we go in is a racing pub with a bookies just over the road and it also serves some really good ales. I just cant wait. Every day at work at the minute im just day dreaming and counting the days down. A landmark is reached tomorrow. One month exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewPunter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy This race will go down in festival history, be interesting to see how fit PC looks tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Took 20/1 about Dunguib in the other thread on the main fourm and really liked what I saw today. Travelled well and had plenty left in the tank despite looking a tiny bit keen early on. The best part was the way he jumped at the business end when the pace really picked up. He flew over the last two and pulled clear of Luska Lad approaching the line. Given that was his first run since April, and that Luska Lad (race-fit) is a very consistent yardstick, I think it was a great seasonal debut. 20/1 long gone. Current CH bets: Dunguib - 2pts @ 20/1 (William Hill) Hurricane Fly - 3pts @ 11/2 (William Hill) Khyber Kim - 1pt EW @ 25/1 (Stan James, four places) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torn up slip Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Dunguib is definitely worth a shout at 20's but no way would I be backing it at the prices now. The trouble with backing anything at bigger prices is your hoping that the top 4 in the betting dont all run their races and I just dont see that happening. I could only really take KK now at bigger prices as a saver to HF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roddo Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Hurricane Fly is out of Montjeu.He has sired over 20 runners at the festival and none have won.It looks like they dont like that punishing uphill finish. Menorah won the previous years Supreme novices.You have to go back to the 70s to find a previous years Supreme winner getting their head in front in the following years Champion. So thats two fancied runners to forget about.Still looks tough though. Roddo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billvernon Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy This is between Binocular - Huricane Fly - and Peddlars Cross I think I would be surprised if it is not one of these three.:eek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Roddo, Would be interested to know what the prices of those 20+ runners were. I think I remember reading the lowest price was 11/2. Perhaps not many of those Montjeu runners had solid chances anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Hurricane Fly is out of Montjeu.He has sired over 20 runners at the festival and none have won.It looks like they dont like that punishing uphill finish. Menorah won the previous years Supreme novices.You have to go back to the 70s to find a previous years Supreme winner getting their head in front in the following years Champion. So thats two fancied runners to forget about.Still looks tough though. Roddo I think you need a wee look at your stats fella, 2 words - Brave Inca Sorry, your right fella, Brave inca winning the snh & ch was a 2 year gap. My mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewPunter Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Jason Maguire has been given a ban that rules him out of the CH. Wonder who will ride Peddlars now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy He will appeal and win I'd imagine. I think they will take the 2 days off and would be surprised if he doesn't ride PC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewPunter Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy If not, probably Graham Lee I'm guessing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Henderson said earlier at his media day he thinks Hurracaine Fly is the biggest danger to Binocular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torn up slip Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Henderson said earlier at his media day he thinks Hurracaine Fly is the biggest danger to Binocular Yeah I saw that myself earlier. And yet surprisingly given what he said Hills have pushed HF out to 11/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy He will appeal and win I'd imagine. I think they will take the 2 days off and would be surprised if he doesn't ride PC he keeps the ride after having his ban reduced by appeal :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rondetto Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Quite surpeised that Nicky Henderson hasn't got a front runner in this especially as he has said Binocular needs an end to end gallop. Perhaps Oscar Whisky will be among the leaders as he does stay further. Rarely if ever have I seen such a competitive Champion Hurdle with 7 horses having serious chances. Dunguib: Given a shocking ride in last years Supreme and well over the top when beaten along way by Hurrcane Fly could bounce back. Nothing travels better than him he has a decent turn of foot of not electric and could be well worth an ew bet. Not saying he can't win as his two defeats last year are both forgivable but out of the top notchers he is theone with the most to prove. Mille Chief: Hard to work out just how good he is. His owner tends to exaggerate when touting his own horses but Alan King thinks he's good enough to run and must have a chance. Oscar Whisky: A mere baby whan beaten by Menoroah last season he's dome everything asked of him. Most trainers would be happy to have him as their first string and only the fact he's Binocular's stable companion is why he's the price he is. Could easily upset them all. Menorah: His form is probably the least convincing having beaten only novices but he's as tough as they come. His turn of foot was somewhat flattered when Cue Card and the weakening Silviano Conti stopped to nothing in the International so whether he's actually up to Champion Hurdle class remains to be seen. He's not the best traveller in the race but if his jcokey can get on terms and it comes to a fight and he's there at the last he would be near fav to come out on top. Peddlar's Cross: Unbeaten won the Neptune here and came back with a bang this season winning the Fighting Fifth. His combination of speed and stamina make him a touch opponent but some of these are sure to do him for toe. I would expect Jason McGuire to have him handy and kick fairly early to try and burn the speed horses off. He won't be stopping and I can't see him being out of the first 3. Binocular: Fantastic performance last season and the result was never in doubt. Certrtainly hasn't had the same problems this season he had last and there's no form like Champion Hurdle form. He has a very very high cruising speed and when he steps up to top gear most horses wilt and can't go with him. His one weakenss is he doesn't have an instant turn of foot and once he has reached top gear that is it. If anything catches him going to te last I don'ty think AP will find much in reserve. This is a toucher race than last year and either he'll win or be out of the first 3 IMO. Hurricane Fly: Never raced in the UK Cheltenham must be a bit of a worry and his sire doesn't know how to breed Cheltenham winners. That said how many of him do you get to a bag of coal. He is without doubt an exceptionaly talent and whatever wins this years race will have to be. He travels well, jumps well and quickens like Nijisnky. It's all down to whether the anticipated fight between Bincolar and Peddler's cross from the top of the hill gets him off the bridle or not. I have not seen anything to suggest there's a horse around that could get him off the bridle before the last so I find it very difficult to oppose him. Tough race but I'll go with 1 Hurrcane Fly 2. Peddlers Cross 3 Dunguib Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
london punter Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Menorah for me all the way and Peddlers cross the danger , never rated Binocular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billvernon Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Got this down to Peddlars Cross and Binocular :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kashiwazaki Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Menorah is my lay of the Festival. Got a HUGE stat to overcome and no way he should be 5/1 to break it (no Supreme winner has followed up in the CH next time since 1971). Of the others I strongly suspect Binocular will turn up in the same shape as last year but whether he wins or not will be determined by the early fractions/pace profile of the race. He definitely would not want steady early followed by an extended sprint from 6 furlongs out and as such I cant back him so it's just the lay of Menorah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bubbles Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Just heard on the radio that Binocular is out of the race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rondetto Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy From PA: Binocular, the defending champion hurdler, has not been declared for this year's race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jockmc Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy The current champion had been heading the ante-post market at around the 7-2 mark just hours before Sunday's declaration time. The JP McManus-owned gelding was treated for an allergy two weeks ago and did not respond to initial medication and required further treatment. Unfortunately Binocular then tested positive for a substance and on the British Horseracing Authority's advice, Henderson was forced to withdraw the horse. In a statement to Press Association Sport, Henderson said: "We have very regretfully had to decide not to declare Binocular for Tuesday's Champion Hurdle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bubbles Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Going by the radio, it tested positive to banned substance, so had to be withdrawn :sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jockmc Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Re: Tues 3.20 : Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy RUBY HAS BEEN CONFIRMED 2 RIDE HF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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