Jump to content
Download the PL Forum App!
** ELO Ratings are now back **
Check Out Our Euro 2024 Forum!

Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase

BillyHills
 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 107
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

mowgli77

mowgli77

Posted
Posted

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase

I have always liked Long Run, but was never sure he is top class. However I am starting to come round and the more I think about it the more I think he can win this. yes his best performances have come on flat tracks, he disappointed at Cheltenham last year in the festival and in the PP Gold Cup although he ran well carrying a lot of weight but we forget his age. He is still only 6. Riverside Theatre runs tomorrow in the Betfair Chase and I think he will win, if he does it will frank Long runs form even more. His jumping seems to have improved and I do think he has the ability this year to do well against the ageing contenders. I cannot see Denman or Kauto winning, and would not be surprised if neither place. Having said that, 7/1 for Long Run is still short enough. I just wanted to type my thoughts as he is a horse I have been thinking about this week!
The weekender was saying 7-1 is too big rather than too short, they reckon it should be nearer 3-1 fav. Riverside Theatre looked good today and that does frank Long Run's form like you say. It's now 5-1 with a number of bookies.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
TheRat

TheRat

Posted
Posted

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase I know i typed that but what did RT beat today in the end? Not much. We all know Chelt form is key and Long Run does not have top form there. If Long Run was 10 I would probably get involved. 3/1, no chance. After today i would say 7s is good but even 5s is a no for me

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BKI Punter

BKI Punter

Posted
Posted

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Cheltenham Gold Cup Kauto Star 4pts @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes - NRNB) Long Run 3pts @ 13/2 (William Hill) Taking these two prices, Kauto NRNB. Kauto Star One of the all time greats, simply cannot see the horse going off at 7/1. If he makes it there he'll be 4/1 or less come the off imo. Was never going in the King George, and you could say he looked wrong at an early stage, which even if he is in decline wouldn't happen. If any horse can bounce back to win a race like this it'll be Kauto. Written off many times before and always bounced back. If he shortens up alot, could lay off a bit of the bet, but I'll wait and see. Do not see him going off at 7/1 and Nicholls remains upbeat about his chances. Long Run Young pretender who won the King George impressively. Settled well, which he didn't do in the RSA, put in a fluent round of jumping and drew clear like a good horse. Riverside Theatre has franked the form very well since. As I said, I think not settling cost him his chance in the RSA, there was absolutely no finishing kick after pulling his way to the front. Hopefully with a fast pace in the GC he'll settle. If he can get into a rhythm jumping wise, he'll be very hard to beat imo. Another I don't see going off at 13/2. Taken the price without insurance, but Kauto is more likely to not make the race than Long Run so I don't mind. Reckon Long Run could go off much shorter. I'm not too keen on Imperial Commander due to his prep this year. Things just don't seem smooth and it'll take one hell of a performance to come back from such a lay-off and win the Gold Cup. At 7/2 he is well worth opposing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
billvernon

billvernon

Posted
Posted

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase I read that the breeder of both Long Run and Master Minded has a good one available called Bel La Vie - said it was better than both those two horses - It would be interesting to see if it comes to these shores also he commented on Long Run - he said Long Run is a Soft to Heavy ground horse in breeding and he said if he gets that ground come Gold Cup day then he would win - puts a question mark on G/S to good though doesnt it . I definetly would not dismiss Imperial Commander NTD has done his usual prep and they seemed happy with his last run out - he will be right up there with the best of them - His time in his race before christmas was a good one and he was not even wound up.The horse is a Cheltenham Specialist needs long breaks and runs well when fresh and so long as no negative vibes then I think he is a good thing.:ok

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Goldikova

Goldikova

Posted
Posted

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Aside from Pandorama, i've been adding to Diamond Harry. My reasons aren't ground breaking or complicated. I like him because of how he travelled in a brushed hurdle race at Haydock some time back, when easily beating Burtons Port, whom he gave something like 13 pounds to. Therefore i know he's capable of running well with a top weight. He obviously won the Hennessy in impressive fashion, albeit in good receipt of a lot. His jumping has improved markedly, and he wouldn't mind any softness in the ground at all. It's race where you could put up an argument for a whole bunch of horse. I'm not overly confident to be honest, even with a decent bet by my standards on this race.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bigc86

bigc86

Posted
Posted

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase First post here:ok Everytime im looking at this race I just cannot seem to focus on the "young pretenders" and keep gazing upon the old guard of Kauto and Denman, with the latter being my personal choice. I was personally impressed with Denmans Hennessy performance due to the extra weight being carried. Kauto is the one i'd love to see do well, and if anyone can, Kauto can, but I think i'll be opting for the tank this year. Imperial Commander, dont ask me why, but I just cant see him winning the Gold Cup two years on the spin.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Goldikova

Goldikova

Posted
Posted

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Welcome Big C. I can see where you're coming from with regards to the uncertainty between the old guard and new. I've had indecision myself. I've went with two new horses, and i'm still not sure. Horses win races, not stats. To add to the confusion, Diamond Harry's trainer comes out and states that he isn't showing what he had at the start of the season. With so many good horses and potential outcomes in each race, the bookies are on to an easy winner.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
billvernon

billvernon

Posted
Posted

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Trainer says Diamond Harry is not sparkling - 3 weeks to go - can Diamond improve ??? or is it a price hike statement. I would like to believe that he is just being cautious and honest to the punter .If he romps in at a good price then SHREWD is an understatement . I know this will cause some ire from some of you - but its good to have a debate and also interesting to see the outcome. Until I hear more positive note on Diamond I will steer clear this Gold Cup - he has not had enough runs stat wise anyway 1 down - 23 to choose from Hmmmmm !!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jimmy2shoes

Jimmy2shoes

Posted
Posted

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase

First post here:ok Everytime im looking at this race I just cannot seem to focus on the "young pretenders" and keep gazing upon the old guard of Kauto and Denman, with the latter being my personal choice. I was personally impressed with Denmans Hennessy performance due to the extra weight being carried. Kauto is the one i'd love to see do well, and if anyone can, Kauto can, but I think i'll be opting for the tank this year. Imperial Commander, dont ask me why, but I just cant see him winning the Gold Cup two years on the spin.
Keep in mind Imperial commander is yet to be beat at Cheltenham. Its his cup till they take it from him.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
billvernon

billvernon

Posted
Posted

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Damnation - Thats not good news if thats correct regarding Imperial Commander and Brennan's comments at a preview meeting - glad you put it on here if it is correct - I looked at all the other horses and apart from the old boys Kauto and Denman I had Imperial as a great chance of regaining his crown.I do not know why but Long Run does not seem to run well up the hill and it was noted he is 6yo and breeder said better soft to heavy ground. I did note something today Kempes 16/1 ran a good race Hennessy Gold Cup against Glencove Marina and Joncol and he has now run 9 Chases which seems to be the golden window regarding the Gold Cup He is rated over 160 (162) and is a good age 8yo - 34 days between races and won going smoothly.Goes on any ground.Trained by Willie Mullins who goes for this race -ve is he has poor Chelt course experience . But could be a surprise in the offing. Or maybe one of the old boys will take it as they are experienced have both had a good rest and this race is starting to look a bit open.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
beaker1

beaker1

Posted
Posted

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase taken from the sporting life Paddy Brennan expects Imperial Commander to feel the benefit of his racecourse gallop as he continues the build-up to the defence of his totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup title. The 10-year-old blew away the cobwebs with a two-mile spin alongside a couple of younger stablemates at Warwick on Monday, although Brennan was reported to have been busy in the saddle. Imperial Commander has been off the track since winning the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November and Brennan believes the stiff piece of work will bring him on again. "He felt great and looked great," said the rider. "I wasn't disappointed (with the racecourse gallop), but you'd like to think there's an awful lot of improvement. "He'll have another racecourse gallop and I certainly wouldn't want to ride anything else at Cheltenham. "He loves Cheltenham, has all the form and ticks all the right boxes. "But, as everyone knows, it's never easy to win a Gold Cup." Imperial Commander is 7-2 favourite with the sponsors to land another Gold Cup.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
torn up slip

torn up slip

Posted
Posted

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Couldn't possibly have Kempes personally as I dont think he has the pace in him to keep up with a strong gallop over 3 miles. The more I look at it the more I think Tidal Bay is the stand out e/w selection. Hopefully he wont get too far behind early on and when the majority of the rest of the challengers have cried enough TB is more than capable of staying on into a place at the very least. The race is no stronger than last year in which a previous 4 1/2M plodder picked up a place.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Goldikova

Goldikova

Posted
Posted

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Tiday Bay fans have been given a major boost by my thinking that Colonel Ghadafi has a better chance of going to a tranquil retirement village with no sexy woman, than Tiday Bay being placed in this Gold Cup.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
King's Theatre

King's Theatre

Posted
Posted

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Paddy Brennan is a great judge and loves the horse - as an Imperial Commander fan I was delighted with his Kempton gallop assessment. I think the horse has a cracking chance in a race which I don't think is as open as some in the media are suggesting. If he puts in a similar run to last year Imperial will win it again for me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MajorWager

MajorWager

Posted
Posted

Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase In a very open Gold cup, one horse now stands out for me, and it is Long Run. The stats suggest that 3 of the principal players have either peaked, or are on the decline, essentially at 10 or 11 yrs old they aint getting any better. ImpC, Kauto & Den couldbe squabbling over the places. Question. When does a 3 mile chaser peak? 7, 8, or 9 maybe? Kauto won his 1st gold cup at 7, and continued to improve up to 10, but in '06 at the age of 6 he fell in the Queen Mum when going off at 2/1F after winning the Tingle Creek. So his big step up was at 7 yrs old when he won the '07 Gold Cup. Long run at the age of 5 pulled too hard early in the RSA in '10 (youthful exuberance?), but still managed 7l 3rd. Next run in the Paddy Power was over a trip too short. Significantly his last run was his best to date in the King George, and represented a major imrovement, and continuing the upward scale of progression suggests the best is yet to come. Technically he is 7 in April, so could be similar age as Kauto when he won. Best trainer for improving horses, but needs juice in the ground. Rain forecast for this weekend so Soft opening day, and Good-Soft by friday is my guess. I'm surprised at the rating of 162 compared with Kauto at 190, but my reasoning is based on potential improvement as opposed to bare form.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...