BillyHills Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldikova Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase I fancy Pandorama at this stage from a betting view point at 16/1 nrnb. He is the right age with room for improvement which ought to materialise. As for ground yielding would do it which they will more or less get so i think the price is good enough. He ran a superb race in last seasons Knight Frank novice chase. On that occasion he showed the bottle for a battle when he came back and pipped Weapons Amnesty on the line. Needless to say that form has been franked when Weapons Amnesty won the RSA at the festival by 6 or 7 lengths to Burton Port. He also won a humble Lexus last month. I like his jumping and i like how he extends when he has to dig deep, which could well be handy for the hill come march if he goes. He does have quite a few pounds to find, but he is capable and ticks many boxes if he gets his ground. He has a mountain to climb against Imperial Commander, Kauto and Denman. However i feel that this horse has the bottle for mountain climbing, and have had a bet accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brassic Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Again, I saw Pandorama at Leopardstown over Christmas and it won a tough-ish race easily enough in a decent enough field (by current Irish chaser standards). Paul Carberry gave it a beautiful ride through the traffic and it didn't look *that* tired finishing and making its way back which i though was telling given the no. that pulled up between 2 and 2.5m. The fact that it's under the radar - and will probably continue to be so if it's laid out for the GC especially after some big English chases and the KGV - might tempt me to go in EW after the KGV if Kauto canters home. Other than that, Denman for a place on Betfair. It loves Cheltenham and first time out put in one hell of a run at the Hennessey; let's not forget the weight it was giving to some fairly progressive horses. It's Irish bred, so may not be quite so precocious and ealry to mature as Kauto and if it looks like a bit of a slog at Cheltenham it looks like something to look at for a place only. As for winners, IC and Kauto are the stand-outs (no shit sherlock). NTD has obviously got his eye on the main prize and swerves Kempton after it wasn't to the horses suiting last year and/or its been clearly established that the horse goes best fresh. I think this might just be the year for IC; I'm not sure Kauto can keep going to the well and it's going to have to come to and end at some point. (That said, I'll be eating my words and having second thoughts by Saturday teatime) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldikova Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase As for winners' date=' IC and Kauto are the stand-outs (no shit sherlock). NTD has obviously got his eye on the main prize and swerves Kempton after it wasn't to the horses suiting last year and/or its been clearly established that the horse goes best fresh. I think this might just be the year for IC; I'm not sure Kauto can keep going to the well and it's going to have to come to and end at some point. (That said, I'll be eating my words and having second thoughts by Saturday teatime)[/quote'] I agree. In my mind Imperial Commander and Kauto are still the two to beat. I don't understand why people criticise Kautos Cheltenham performances. His win in 2009 was very impressive. It was a similar time to Imperial Commanders last season, yet Kauto was put under less pressure which means he could have clocked a quicker time if asked. He ran brilliantly on his re-appearance at Down Royal and i don't see anything stopping him on Saturday. The price anyone takes is basically to get round without any serious errors. I really want Pandorama to run as i've already stated. The softer the ground the bigger the chance. If he gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
w1nsome Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase I fancy Diamond Harry to run a big race,and TBH cant see him being out of the first 3. Won the Hennessy well, admittedly getting 26lbs from Denman...but beat him 16.5L into 3rd,think age will catch up with both Nicholls horses...and think they've have their Cheltenham glory days.So @ 10/1 represents a good e/w bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewPunter Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Pricewise has tipped up Pride of Dulcote, watch the price crash on that after he tipped up IC last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Who would have thought a few months back you would see 12/1 for Kauto Star. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldikova Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Who would have thought a few months back you would see 12/1 for Kauto Star. That's a fair price worth taking. As Ginge has pointed out on the KG thread, Nicholls strike rate is significantly down on previous seasons. There was a similar situation with Denman when he was all but written off. Yet he(Denman) ran a topper of race. Once Ruby takes the ride the 12s could look very nice as an each way proposition. More than fair considering he has won 2 gold cups and they will be working over time on him. Something was a miss from early on, therefore i don't accept it as any kind of marker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billvernon Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Diamond Harry looks good and Pandorama only question is his chelt experience. Long Run is not going to win .Kauto Imperial and Denman place horses only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewPunter Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase If Ruby is back 110% fully fit then I will be lumping on Kauto e/w at anything bigger than 10/1. My antepost bet on Cooldine looks to have failed, seems to be just below top class; wouldn't be a massive shock if it went in another race? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganjaman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Since 1980 (10) 9 year olds (9) 8 year olds (6) 7 year olds (5) 10 year olds have won. The last horse older than 10 years old was WHAT A MYTH in 1969 (this year DENMAN and KAUTO STAR) The last 6 year old was MILL HOUSE in 1963 (this year LONG RUN ) Only 9 favourites have won Only 4 Irish trained winners 9 from the last 10 winners were rated 166+ 11 from the last 13 winners had been in the first 4 at a festival 21 from 23 finished in the first 4 LTO In Gold Cup history only 7 horses have won more than once So only 4 horses rated 166 + with form at the festival are between 7-10 years old are ALBERTAS RUN 100/1 10yo rated 168 3m 2f in this class not for me cant see him lining up prob go for something a bit shorter around 2m4f-3 miles Ryanair maybe DIAMOND HARRY 12/1 8yo rated 168 when running over 3m+ his form is 131P1 at Cheltenham 113P goes very well when fresh so this could be his year i like this one my idea of the winner IMPERIAL COMMANDER 4/1 10yo rated 185 What can you say about him loves Cheltenham been there done it sure to give it his best shot will make the frame MIDNIGHT CHASE if the ground was good after a rethink i would give him a huge chance 9yo rated 163 MY TOP 3 DIAMOND HARRY IMPERIAL COMMANDER MIDNIGHT CHASE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldikova Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Good post Ganjaman. You put up a good case and could well be on to something. Panorama is said to be 50/50 to reach this race after being ruled out of the Irish Hennessy. I really hope he makes it over. Noel Meade deserves it as does the horse and connections who really want a shot at this race. Anyway my first ever single for this race was Weird Al at 46s and 44s on the machine. I've now went back in at 80s. I know it's a long shot but i put a thick black marker through his Hennessy run. He gave 6 pounds to Little Josh and tied on his re-appearance which might not stand out. However Little Josh beat Long Run at Cheltenham in receipt of 6 pounds. Obviously it transpired that Weird Al was injured and could therefore not run to form. Despite this he finished 8th, and was my fancy for the race along with Pandorama, who himself didn't run any sort of race, and is now as low as 12-14/1 for the Gold Cup. Weird Al will make a re-appearance in the next few weeks, and all going well this could be his target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldikova Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Diamond Harry is eating away at me. I was so impressed by him some time ago when he ran wonderfully in a brush hurdle race a year or more ago. If you add that to the stormer he ran in the hennessey, then you'd have to say the 10/1 isn't shady at all. They have obviously worked on his jumping, and all his fluency is coming together as he's still only 7. I can sometime be indecisive when something scratches away at me. This time it's DH who is doing the scratching. I might have to see if i can have a bet. Should i stick to Pandorama, or add harry ?...the more i think about it the more i'm beginning to subscribe to the theory that there will be a new champion.:wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Since 1980 (10) 9 year olds (9) 8 year olds (6) 7 year olds (5) 10 year olds have won. The last horse older than 10 years old was WHAT A MYTH in 1969 (this year DENMAN and KAUTO STAR) The last 6 year old was MILL HOUSE in 1963 (this year LONG RUN ) Only 9 favourites have won Only 4 Irish trained winners 9 from the last 10 winners were rated 166+ 11 from the last 13 winners had been in the first 4 at a festival 21 from 23 finished in the first 4 LTO In Gold Cup history only 7 horses have won more than once So only 4 horses rated 166 + with form at the festival are between 7-10 years old are ALBERTAS RUN 100/1 10yo rated 168 3m 2f in this class not for me cant see him lining up prob go for something a bit shorter around 2m4f-3 miles Ryanair maybe DIAMOND HARRY 12/1 8yo rated 168 when running over 3m+ his form is 131P1 at Cheltenham 113P goes very well when fresh so this could be his year i like this one my idea of the winner IMPERIAL COMMANDER 4/1 10yo rated 185 What can you say about him loves Cheltenham been there done it sure to give it his best shot will make the frame MIDNIGHT CHASE if the ground was good after a rethink i would give him a huge chance 9yo rated 163 MY TOP 3 DIAMOND HARRY IMPERIAL COMMANDER MIDNIGHT CHASE Good reading. :dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase I watched the big race on Saturday and couldn't help but think another furlong and Tidal Bay would have won. Impossible to say of course but twice it has now finished like a train as others have tired. It goes well at the course and still clearly has ability. I saw 40-1 after the race and have been considering backing it each way as a few have various question marks over them. What are the thoughts on Tidal Bay's chances of a Gold Cup victory? Also can't help but feel Kauto Star is too big even though it has looked like a fading force. What price is it now and what price would it have been if it had won the King George? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billvernon Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Imperial Commander looks like the winner I have gone over this race and looked at Diamond Harry - not enough runs or experience but has stamina and speed although last win was a handicap and apart from Denman Handicappers do not win recently. Long Run - great run in King George and good time has had the requisite upto 9 chase runs required but 6yo and also a niggling doubt that he is not suited by the Cheltenham course.(The Hill) I think Kauto Star and also Denman will give a good account but at 11 years old it is probably asking a lot for them to win. Neptune Collonges & Tidal Bay may well run a good race for e/w places after the Argento run on Saturday . But the Cheltenham course specialist has to be Imperial Commander - if he turns up fit and healthy I think we might be seeing a 10 year old winner of the GOLD CUP !!:ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Stan James are doing a special offer until midnight on this race, 1/4 odds paying 4 places. I've taken Tidal Bay each way at 33-1, the 40's has gone elsewhere. The course experience is crucial and I think it's shown it has still got ability. May be vulnerable to younger, improving horses but we'll see. I think the trip will be ideal and the fact I'm getting 4 places makes it a great bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Stan James are doing a special offer until midnight on this race' date=' 1/4 odds paying 4 places. I've taken Tidal Bay each way at 33-1, the 40's has gone elsewhere. The course experience is crucial and I think it's shown it has still got ability. May be vulnerable to younger, improving horses but we'll see. I think the trip will be ideal and the fact I'm getting 4 places makes it a great bet.[/quote'] Thanks for pointing that out, it does look good indeed. been impressed with the way he has been staying on. If he settles a bit better in the Gold Cup he could go close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldikova Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase I'd be suprised if Tidal Bay got a place. It's all well making errors then getting back in a certain type of field. However any mistakes and he could be out of it with no chance to get back in. I hope your bets does well and places. However i suspect he's more likely to be walking somewhere in the distance as others fight it out. Not exactly a bold prediction by me given his odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewPunter Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Will Denman have to set the pace this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganjaman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP TRENDS 2011 The Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup takes place on Friday, 18th March and will be the highlight of the Festival for many. The fourth day is generally sold out in anticipation of a great spectacle and the race rarely fails to deliver. Paul Nicholls who has won 3 of the last 4 renewals and he will surely be looking to regain the title after Imperial Commander defeated his big guns last year. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 6yo: 0-0-3 7yo: 4-2-22 8yo: 3-7-42 9yo: 3-7-35 10yo: 0-3-29 11yo+ 0-1-18 Horses aged 7 to 9 (10-16-99) have won the last 10 runnings. Horses aged 10+ (0-4-47) have gained no wins and just 4 placed in the last 10 runnings from just under a third of the total runners. Breeding Irish Bred: 8-14-92 French Bred: 2-4-37 British Bred: 0-2-18 German Bred: 0-0-2 American Bred: 0-0-1 Irish and French bred horses have dominated, winning the last 10. Recent/Past Form 9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 last time out 10 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 5 chases that season 9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 162+ on last completed start 9 of 10 winners had run in 6 to 12 chases in their career (Kauto Star winning it a second time was exception) 8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (both exceptions had won the race before) 8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions finished runner-up in the Lexus and King George on their only previous try at 3M+) 10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase 9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase that season (exception Imperial Commander beaten a short head in Betfair Chase) Previous Cheltenham Form Returning Gold Cup winner (Imperial Commander): 401122 (2-2-6) 3 of 10 winners ran in the previous Gold Cup, finishing 112 2 of 10 winners ran in the RSA Chase, finishing 11 2 of 10 winners ran in the Arkle, finishing 27 9 of 10 winners ran in a chase at the previous Festival (exception was Best Mate in 2002, there was no 2001 Festival). 9 of 10 winners had previously finished 1st or 2nd at the Festival (Kauto Star who fell when favourite in previous season's Queen Mother was the only exception) Other Races King George winner (Long Run): 4011121F (4-1-7) Lexus Chase winner (Pandorama): U9F10013 (2-1-8) AON Chase winner: 404118 (2-0-6) Betfair Chase winner (Imperial Commander): 012PF (1-1-5) Cotswold Chase winner (Neptune Collonges): 15526 (1-1-5) JN Wine Champion Chase winner (Kauto Star): 29P01 (1-1-5) Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Diamond Harry): P576182 (1-1-7) Ryanair Chase winner (Alberta Run): 1 (1-0-1) Star Chase winner (China Rock): 1 (1-0-1) Gowran Park Champion Chase winner (China Rock): 1 (1-0-1) 7 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing P211115 3 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus Chase, finishing 121 10 of 10 winners ran in Lexus or King George (8 of 10 were 1st/2nd) 3 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 1U2 2 of 10 winners ran in the Aon Chase, finishing 11 2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 21 2 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan Memorial, finishing 15 Trainers Paul Nicholls (3-5-24) has won 3 of the last 4 runnings of this. Henrietta Knight (3-0-7) trained Best Mate to win the race 3 times in the 2000’s. Mouse Morris (1-0-2) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-4) are the only other 2 trainers with entrants to have won this since 2000. Noel Meade (0-2-3), Willie Mullins (0-2-6) and Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-6) have each trained 2 placed finishers in the past 10 renewals. The Pipe Stable (0-0-14), Nicky Henderson (0-0-5) Phillip Hobbs (0-0-4) have each failed to saddle a runner that made the frame in the past 10 runnings from 23 collective runners. Irish trained runners (2-6-28) won the race 2005 and filled the first 3 positions in 2006 but have struggled more recently, failing to fill a place in any of the last 4 years (they were not represented in 2009). Price 10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting The longest priced winner since 2000 has been 15/2. Favourites (5-2-10) have taken 5 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 4.35. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: · Aged 7 to 9 · Irish or French bred · Had 6 to 12 career chase start (2 to 5 this season) · Second or third season chaser (or previous winner) · Finished in the first 2 last time and posted RPR of 162+ · Won over 3M+ · Won a grade 1 chase (and won a graded chase this season) · Finished 1st or 2nd at the Festival before · Finished 1st or 2nd in either the Lexus or King George · From first 3 in the betting · Paul Nicholls trained Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewPunter Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Cooldine is out for the season, wind problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the judge Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Since 1980 (10) 9 year olds (9) 8 year olds (6) 7 year olds (5) 10 year olds have won. The last horse older than 10 years old was WHAT A MYTH in 1969 (this year DENMAN and KAUTO STAR) The last 6 year old was MILL HOUSE in 1963 (this year LONG RUN ) Only 9 favourites have won Only 4 Irish trained winners 9 from the last 10 winners were rated 166+ 11 from the last 13 winners had been in the first 4 at a festival 21 from 23 finished in the first 4 LTO In Gold Cup history only 7 horses have won more than once So only 4 horses rated 166 + with form at the festival are between 7-10 years old are ALBERTAS RUN 100/1 10yo rated 168 3m 2f in this class not for me cant see him lining up prob go for something a bit shorter around 2m4f-3 miles Ryanair maybe DIAMOND HARRY 12/1 8yo rated 168 when running over 3m+ his form is 131P1 at Cheltenham 113P goes very well when fresh so this could be his year i like this one my idea of the winner IMPERIAL COMMANDER 4/1 10yo rated 185 What can you say about him loves Cheltenham been there done it sure to give it his best shot will make the frame MIDNIGHT CHASE if the ground was good after a rethink i would give him a huge chance 9yo rated 163 MY TOP 3 DIAMOND HARRY IMPERIAL COMMANDER MIDNIGHT CHASE Good reading. :dude Whats wrong with Tidal Bay ? Rated 166 10 YO 2ND in a neptune Won Arkle 4th in gold cup On his day he can place in any race, would expect him to be staying on late and if they go off to quick, which is feasible with midnight chase in the field, he might just win. 33/1 Excellent value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billvernon Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase I personally would not dismiss Tidal Bay - he has run his usual type of races but he is definetly better this season than last season - I reckon his Trainer has a plan with this one and I would not rule out a surprize win with him some part of the season remaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewPunter Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase I'm struggling to think what will win the Gold Cup this year, can't decide if that means its a quality renewal or whether its below average! I'd like to see Riverside Theatre supplemented personally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billvernon Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase I know it seems stupid but Long Run seems to be ticking a lot of the boxes regarding this race - he has ran the requisite 9 chases he has won the King George he is rated OR 179 so he is up there with the best of them - he has been placed in the previous Cheltenham Festival.He recorded a win in the last two months.He stays I know he is young but maybe just maybe this year we could be in for a surprise.Imperial Commander for a place and one of the old boys Kauto or Denman they are the horses I feel will be up there at the finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase I have always liked Long Run, but was never sure he is top class. However I am starting to come round and the more I think about it the more I think he can win this. yes his best performances have come on flat tracks, he disappointed at Cheltenham last year in the festival and in the PP Gold Cup although he ran well carrying a lot of weight but we forget his age. He is still only 6. Riverside Theatre runs tomorrow in the Betfair Chase and I think he will win, if he does it will frank Long runs form even more. His jumping seems to have improved and I do think he has the ability this year to do well against the ageing contenders. I cannot see Denman or Kauto winning, and would not be surprised if neither place. Having said that, 7/1 for Long Run is still short enough. I just wanted to type my thoughts as he is a horse I have been thinking about this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fredward Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase Are we any closer to fining out which race Weird Al is likely to contest at the festival if any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase weird al is entered in the ryanair and the gold cup fredward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fredward Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Re: Fri 3.20 : totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase weird al is entered in the ryanair and the gold cup fredward I realize that what I was asking is have connections confirmed which race of the two is is to be aimed at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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